2011: Year of the Tornado

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 07:25 PM GMT del 27 Dicembre 2011

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The year 2011 will forever be known as Year of the Tornado in the U.S. A series of violent severe storms swept across the Plains and Southeast U.S., bringing an astonishing six billion-dollar disasters in a three-month period. The epic tornado onslaught killed 552 people and caused $25 billion in damage. Three of the five largest tornado outbreaks on record hit in a six-week period, including the largest and most expensive tornado outbreak in U.S. history--the $10.2 billion dollar Southeast U.S. Super Outbreak, April 25 - 28. Even more stunning was the $9 billion late-May tornado outbreak that brought an EF-5 tornado to Joplin, Missouri. The Joplin tornado did $3 billion in damage and killed 158 people--the largest death toll from a U.S. tornado since 1947, seventh deadliest tornado in U.S. history, and the most expensive tornado in world history. In a year of amazing weather extremes, this year's tornado season ranks as the top U.S. weather story of 2011.


Video 1. Remarkable video of the tornado that hit Tuscaloosa, Alabama on April 27, 2011. Fast forward to minute four to see the worst of the storm.



Figure 1. A truly frightening radar image: multiple hook echoes from at least ten supercell thunderstorms cover Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee during the height of the April 27, 2011 Super Outbreak. A multi-hour animation is available here.

A record six EF-5 tornadoes confirmed in 2011
Six top-end EF-5 tornadoes hit the U.S. in 2011, tying this year with 1974 for the greatest number of these most destructive tornadoes. The EF-5 tornadoes of 2011:

1) The April 27, 2011 Neshoba/Kemper/Winston/Noxubee Counties, Mississippi tornado (3 killed, 29 mile path length.)

2) The April 27, 2011 Smithville, Mississippi tornado (22 killed, 15 mile path length.)

3) The April 27, 2011 Hackleburg, Alabama tornado (71 killed, 25 mile path length.)

4) The April 27, 2011 Rainsville/Dekalb County, Alabama tornado (26 killed, 34 mile path length.)

5) The May 22, 2011 Joplin Missouri tornado (158 killed, 14 mile path length.)

6) The May 24, 2011 Binger-El Reno-Peidmont-Guthrie, Oklahoma tornado. (9 killed, 75 mile path length.)


Figure 2. Aerial view of damage from the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado. Image credit: Wikipedia.


Figure 3. EF-5 damage from the April 27, 2011 Neshoba tornado in Mississippi. The tornado was so powerful that it dug out the ground to a depth of two feet over an area 25 - 50 yards wide and several hundred yards long. Image credit: NWS.

A few other remarkable statistics on the tornado season of 2011, compiled from NOAA's official press release, the NOAA Extreme Weather 2011 page, and Wikipedia's excellent tornado pages:

- The tornado death toll of 552 in 2011 ties 1936 as the second deadliest year for tornadoes in U.S. history. Only 1925, with 794 fatalities, was deadlier. In 1936, violent tornadoes hit Tupelo Mississippi (216 killed), and Gainesville, Georgia (203 killed.) During the 1930s, the tornado death rate per million people was 60 - 70 times as great as in the year 2000 (Figure 4), implying that this year's tornadoes may have killed tens of thousands of people if we did not have our modern tornado modern warning system.


Figure 4. Death rate per million people per year in U.S., 1875-2011. Thin line with dots is raw rate, curved thick line is death rate, filtered by 3-point median and 5-point running mean filter, and straight solid lines are least squares fit to filtered death rate for 1875-1925 and 1925-2011. Dashed lines are estimates of 10th and 90th percentile death rates from 1925-2000. The death rate fell from 8 per million to .12 per million between 1940 and 2010. Image credit: A Brief History of Deaths from Tornadoes in the United States, Harold Brooks and Charles Doswell III, and updated by Harold Brooks in 2011.

- April 2011 had the most tornadoes of any month in U.S. history--753. The previous record was 542, set in May 2003. The previous busiest April was in 1974, with 267 tornadoes. The average number of tornadoes for the month of April during the past decade was 161, and the 30-year average for April tornadoes was 135.

- On April 27, 199 confirmed tornadoes touched down. This is the largest 1-day tornado total on record, beating the 148 recorded in 24 hours on April 3 - 4, 1974.

The year 2011 now has three of the top five tornado outbreaks on record (note, though, that reliable records for number of tornadoes only extend back in time to about the early 1990s):

- The April 25 - 28, 2011 Super tornado outbreak, with 343 tornadoes, is now the largest tornado outbreak in U.S. history. The previous record (3 days or less duration) was 148 tornadoes, set during the April 3 - 4, 1974 Super Outbreak.

- The May 22 - 27, 2011 tornado outbreak, with 180 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the 4th largest 6-day or shorter tornado outbreak on record. A May 2003 6-day outbreak had 289 tornadoes, and a May 2004 6-day outbreak had 229 tornadoes.

- The April 14 - 16, 2011 tornado outbreak, with 177 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the second largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record, and 5th largest outbreak of six or fewer days duration.

- The May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado killed 158 people and injured 1150, making it the deadliest U.S. tornado since 1947, and 7th deadliest in history. The $3 billion estimate of insured damage makes it the most expensive tornado in world history.

- Preliminary damage estimates from Munich Re insurance company put 2011's insured losses due to U.S. thunderstorms and tornadoes at $25 billion, more than double the previous record set in 2010.

- The year 2011 now ranks in 2nd place behind 1973 for greatest number of tornadoes greater than EF-0 strength (EF-1, EF-2, EF-3, EF-4 and EF-5 strength, Figure 5.)


Figure 5. Number of EF-1, EF-2, EF-3, EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes from 1950 to 2011. The total shown for 2011 is preliminary and uses unofficial numbers through November 17, but 2011 now ranks in 2nd place behind 1973. There is not a decades-long increasing trend in the numbers of tornadoes stronger than EF-0, implying that climate change, as yet, is not having a noticeable impact on U.S. tornadoes. However, statistics of tornado frequency and intensity are highly uncertain. Major changes in the rating process occurred in the mid-1970s (when all tornadoes occurring prior to about 1975 were retrospectively rated), and again in 2001, when scientists began rating tornadoes lower because of engineering concerns and unintended consequences of National Weather Service policy changes. Also, beginning in 2007, NOAA switched from the F-scale to the EF-scale for rating tornado damage, causing additional problems with attempting to assess if tornadoes are changing over time. Data provided by Harold Brooks, NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory.

Other posts looking back at the remarkable weather events of 2011
Deadliest weather disaster of 2011: the East African drought
Tropical Storm Lee's flood in Binghamton: was global warming the final straw?
Wettest year on record in Philadelphia; 2011 sets record for wet/dry extremes in U.S.
Hurricane Irene: New York City dodges a potential storm surge mega-disaster

The NWS posted a summary of the records set during the tornado season of 2011 in February 2012.

Jeff Masters

Joplin Tornado Damage (thebige)
Joplin Tornado Damage
Tornado - Pine Apple,AL (EarlBcom)
Tornado just south of Pine Apple, AL on around 5:40pm. This storm was a part of the Alabama tornado outbreak on April 15, 2011. earlb.com VIDEO - See video of tornado at earlb.com
Tornado - Pine Apple,AL
As Is (teach50)
My husband and I were visiting my parents in Birmingham, Alabama. We decided to take a day trip to Tuscaloosa to see the damage from the April 27 tornado. It was a sight that I will never forget. Blocks and blocks of flattened houses and stores. This area has not been touched in 2 months. It was so moving that I started to cry thinking of all these poor people.
As Is

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I went to bed early last night (12:30 a.m.), so what did Thane peak as?


I was up till 2 AM(EST) and it didnt get any higher then 75 knots.
Member Since: Agosto 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485
Quoting bappit:

Not that unusual, I think.


Really?!?! that's sorta disturbing...
Member Since: Agosto 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10490
Quoting presslord:
and this from FloridaLink

Not that unusual, I think.

Wikipedia: "In 2001, Durst was arrested in Galveston, Texas, shortly after body parts of his senior neighbor, Morris Black, were found floating in Galveston Bay ... "
Member Since: Maggio 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6022
Here is the update on the south pole temps. looks like 2 stations beat the old record from 1978 by more than 5C, or more than 10F

On the Ice
Update on record high temperatures at South Pole and AWS sites…
Posted on December 29, 2011 by mattl
Here is an update on the South Pole and nearby Nico and Henry Automatic Weather Stations (AWS) record high temperatures recorded on 25 December 2011:

•The prior record high temperature at South Pole was recorded on 27 December 1978, not on 12 December 1978, as misquoted in some sources.
•Preliminary assessment of the record high at Nico AWS was -8.2C or 17.2F on 25 December 2011. This breaks the previous known record of -13.9C or 7F recorded on 4 January 2010.
•Preliminary assessment of the record high at Henry AWS was -8.9C or 16F on 25 December 2011. This break the previous known record of -14.5C or 5.9F on 5 January 2010.
*These are preliminary as AWS observations are still being reviewed during the 2003 to 2008 time period.

* Nico and Henry AWS are approximately 100 kilometers to the grid East and grid North of South Pole.

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358. Skyepony (Mod)
The National Hurricane Center's Storm Surge Unit is providing this platform to engage the community to submit ideas, vote on existing ideas, and/or add comments to improve storm surge products and services.
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and this from FloridaLink
Member Since: Agosto 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10490
I went to bed early last night (12:30 a.m.), so what did Thane peak as?
Member Since: Luglio 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32033
Member Since: Agosto 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Nearing? No, it's making landfall right now, with half its eyewall already onshore.

Your right, but I posted the image before the eyewall moved onshore, so the imaged must have updated.
Member Since: Agosto 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4979
IO062011 - Tropical Cyclone (>64 kt) THANE

2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve/ animated Loop

..click Image for Loop.

Click on Image loop to ZOOM

Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128275
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Dr. Masters yesterday on PBS Newshour




Watch How 2011 Became a 'Mind-Boggling' Year of Extreme Weather on PBS. See more from PBS NewsHour.


Dr. M needs a larger background.
Member Since: Maggio 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6022
Quoting bappit:
Record high temp at south pole reported.
i don't observe South Pole weather patterns, so i'm curious if that kind of steering is normal... very reminiscent of the Arctic Dipole observed in the last few years. anyone familiar with common prevailing patterns down there?
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Quoting Ameister12:
Thane is nearing landfall.

Nearing? No, it's making landfall right now, with half its eyewall already onshore.
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Quoting bappit:
Record high temp at south pole reported.


interesting....
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Record high temp at south pole reported.
Member Since: Maggio 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6022
Thane is nearing landfall.
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Here's the Newshour Tumbler account with the video and transcript from last night interview with Dr. Masters and climate scientist Kathrine Hayhoe.
Link
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Smokin' hot island rises up from depths of the Red Sea
Volcanic eruption gives rise to huge lump of lava; will it have staying power?
By Brett Israel

The Red Sea has a new inhabitant: a smoking island.

The island was created by a wild eruption that occurred in the Red Sea earlier this month. It is made of loose volcanic debris from the eruption, so it may not stick around long.

According to news reports, fishermen witnessed lava fountains reaching up to 90 feet (30 meters) tall on Dec. 19, which is probably the day the eruption began, said Erik Klemetti, a volcanologist at Denison University in Granville, Ohio.
Ash plumes were seen emanating from the spot Dec. 20 and Dec. 22 by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, or MODIS, on NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites. The Ozone Monitoring Instrument on NASA's Aura satellite detected elevated levels of sulfur dioxide, further indicating an eruption. By Dec. 23, what looked like a new island had appeared in the Red Sea off the west coast of Yemen.
"I am surprised about how quickly the island has grown," Klemetti, who writes Wired's Eruptions Blog, told OurAmazingPlanet.

Link
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Diseased seals washing ashore in Alaska being tested for possible Fukushima radiation exposure

Posted on December 29, 2011
December 29, 2011 – ALASKA - Scientists in Alaska are investigating whether local seals are being sickened by radiation from Japan’s crippled Fukushima nuclear plant. Biologists at first thought the seals were suffering from a virus, but they have so far been unable to identify one, and tests are now underway to find out if radiation is a factor. Scores or multiples of twenty, ring seals have washed up on Alaska’s Arctic coastline since July. Their symptoms include: bleeding lesions on the hind flippers, irritated skin around the nose and eyes, and patchy hair loss on the animals’ fur coats. John Kelley, Professor Emeritus at the Institute of Marine Science at the University of Alaska Fairbanks said, “We recently received samples of seal tissue from diseased animals captured near St Lawrence Island with a request to examine the material for radioactivity. There is concern expressed by some members of the local communities that there may be some relationship to the Fukushima nuclear reactor’s damage.” Test results would not be available for several weeks. –ENE News

Link
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Member Since: Agosto 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485
Quoting beell:
A three year chart and another that covers March through August.

Nice choices!


That chart that covers March through August is one that Dr. Masters has reproduced from time to time. Those six months are used as NOAA is aware that those six months historically see the most tornado activity--that is, they show the de facto tornado "season".

Nearly any North American tornado chart will show the same thing as the chart I produced; it showed the three-year average, as that's the span the SPC uses. You can see that at the page-top table here; note than from 2008-2010, January averaged 40 tornadoes, February 61, and March 92. (For 2011, the actual numbers were 16, 63, and 75.)

uh-oh

uh-oh

...and there are monthly charts for each of the past 12 years here, each of which shows pretty much the same increase in activity beginning in March.
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Quoting beell:
A three year chart and another that covers March through August.

Nice choices!



Why would you accuse someone else of cherry picking?

The season reaches its peak at different times in the United States.
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Quoting yqt1001:
NIO storms have an odd tendency to RI near land, but I don't think Thane is (or not for long enough to be called RI), not under 15kts of shear at least. Might just be one last round of strengthening before he dies away...
remarks:
291500z position near 11.8n 81.0e.
Tropical cyclone (tc) 06b (thane), located approximately 100 nm
southeast of chennai, India, has tracked westward at 07 knots over
the past six hours. Animated multispectral satellite imagery
indicates that the system has weakened slightly over the past six
hours with deep convection decreasing in areal extent but has
maintained a 10-nm ragged eye. A 291205z ssmis image depicts a small
microwave eye feature supporting the current position with high
confidence. The current intensity of 75 knots is based on an average
of Dvorak estimates ranging from 65 to 90 knots. Tc 06b is forecast
to track westward, making landfall at tau 12, and is expected to
dissipate over India between tau 24 and tau 36. With the exception
of WBAR, model guidance is in tight agreement. Maximum significant
wave height at 291200z is 22 feet. Next warnings at 292100z,

Member Since: Settembre 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21195
Quoting sunlinepr:

that moisture plume looks like the makings of a winter storm to me.. wonder how it lines up with some of the models folks were posting yesterday of a deep trough and cold air coming.
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337. beell
A three year chart and another that covers March through August.

Nice choices!

Member Since: Settembre 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16623
Quoting beell:



I assume it was you that stated Tornado season "begins" in a "couple of months". This morning, I read:"it gets underway when the tornadoes do".

Tornadoes are possible any day of the year.
There were some statistics posted that indicate a "season" in April and May-with an uptick beginning in early Spring. You can choose not to draw any meaningful conclusion from that data and begin the season as your mood suits you-for me, it won't be in March.


Of course it was me who made the original comment; you must know that, having responded to it three times now. ;-) Anyway, my point was that tornado "season" begins in a matter of a couple of months. That is, around March. March is the first month that sees a statistical "uptick" in tornado activity:

Uh-oh

...and March is the first of the six months each year in which powerful tornadoes are most likely:

Uh-oh

Too, many (in)famous tornadoes and tornado outbreaks have occurred in March: the 1890 Mississippi Valley outbreak, the twin 1913 outbreaks, the 1920 Palm Sunday outbreak, the 1832 Deep South outbreak, the 1933 Nashville outbreak, the 1953 Waco outbreak, and so on--including the great Tri-State Tornado of 1925.

So, yes, tornadoes are possible any day of the year--just as are Atlantic hurricanes. But while the "official" Atlantic hurricane season is defined as June through November, tornadoes have no official season, which takes me back to my original point: tornado "season", such as it is, starts in a couple of months. Give or take. ;-)
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Quoting yqt1001:
NIO storms have an odd tendency to RI near land, but I don't think Thane is (or not for long enough to be called RI), not under 15kts of shear at least. Might just be one last round of strengthening before he dies away...


It's not just North Indian Ocean cyclones,

Atlantic cyclones have a tendency when they're moving slow to rapidly blow up virtually on or very near land.

Its due to the shallow waters and very warm SST's there, but however that does not mean they can get much stronger, as the TCHP is very bare there.
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334. beell
Quoting Neapolitan:
Well, the Spring Equinox occurs on a given day--as does, for that matter, the official start of hurricane season. But "tornado season", such as it is, has no pre-defined beginning and end dates; it gets underway when the tornadoes do, and ceases when they cease, so your comparison doesn't really work.That can go a long way toward explaining the extent of the devastation, true. But then again, Joplin has been a city since 1873, and Tuscaloosa since 1819, and they remained relatively unscathed until 2011. Go figure...



I assume it was you that stated Tornado season "begins" in a "couple of months". This morning, I read:"it gets underway when the tornadoes do".

Tornadoes are possible any day of the year.
There were some statistics posted that indicate a "season" in April and May-with an uptick beginning in early Spring. You can choose not to draw any meaningful conclusion from that data and begin the season as your mood suits you-for me, it won't be in March.

Member Since: Settembre 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16623
NIO storms have an odd tendency to RI near land, but I don't think Thane is (or not for long enough to be called RI), not under 15kts of shear at least. Might just be one last round of strengthening before he dies away...
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Dr. Masters yesterday on PBS Newshour




Watch How 2011 Became a 'Mind-Boggling' Year of Extreme Weather on PBS. See more from PBS NewsHour.

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Quoting beell:
The Spring Equinox is on March 20th this year. Give or take a month or two...
Well, the Spring Equinox occurs on a given day--as does, for that matter, the official start of hurricane season. But "tornado season", such as it is, has no pre-defined beginning and end dates; it gets underway when the tornadoes do, and ceases when they cease, so your comparison doesn't really work.
Quoting goodsign:
Outrageous! How could so much historical human damage be done. We have built more and the population has risen, but it couldn't possibly explain the devastation.
That can go a long way toward explaining the extent of the devastation, true. But then again, Joplin has been a city since 1873, and Tuscaloosa since 1819, and they remained relatively unscathed until 2011. Go figure...
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330. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #27
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM THANE (BOB05-2011)
11:30 AM IST December 29 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm "THANE" Over Southwest Bay Of Bengal

Cyclone Warning for north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast: Red Message

At 6:00 AM UTC, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Thane over southwest Bay of Bengal moved westward and lays centered near 12.0N 82.0E, about 220 km east of Puducherry, 200 km southeast of Chennai (Tamilnadu) and 400 km north-northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka).

The system is likely to move westwards and cross north Tamil Nadu coast between Nagapattinam and Chennai, close to Puducherry around early morning of 30th December 2011.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T4.5. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -83C. Associated intense to very intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal between 9.0N to 14.5N and west of 84.5E. The imagery shows irregular eye pattern.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 75 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The central pressure is 976 hPa. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the system center.

Storm surge of about 1 meter height above the astronomical tide would inundate the low lying areas of Chennai and Tiruvallur, Kanchipuram & Villupuram districts of north Tamil Nadu at the time of landfall.

Forecast and Intensity
========================

6 HRS: 12.0N 81.3E - 70-75 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
12 HRS: 12.0N 80.6E - 65-70 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 12.0N 77.8E - 30-35 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
60 HRS: 12.0N 75.0E - Low Pressure Area
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45301
329. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 02F
18:00 PM FST December 29 2011
===================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 02F (1002 hPa) located at 20.0S 155.0W is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on multispectral infrared. Sea surface temperature is 29C.

Organization has not improved significantly and convection remains persistent in the past 24 hours. Cyclonic circulation is from surface to 700 HPa. The system lies under an upper diffluent region and highly sheared environment.

Global models have picked up the system and are slowly moving it southeastward with little intensification.

Potential for this tropical disturbance to form into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours remains LOW.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45301
Outrageous! How could so much historical human damage be done. We have built more and the population has risen, but it couldn't possibly explain the devastation.
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3 coments of the same thing...lol. night all
Member Since: Agosto 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485
326. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 04-20112012
10:00 AM RET December 29 2011
===================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 04 (999 hPa) located at 12.8S 85.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 13 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/12 HRS

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
80 NM radius from the center extending up to 220 Nm in the western semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

12 HRS: 13.0S 82.8E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 13.3S 80.7E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 14.7S 78.0E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 16.8S 75.8E - 65 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)

Additional Information
=======================

System keeps on undergoing an easterly vertical wind shear constraint on the northwestern edge of the upper level ridge. The low level circulation is partially exposed east of the main deep convective activity.

Low level inflow is good poleward ET is currently improving equatorward. Equatorial westerlies are no long mainly feeding the northern hemisphere system in the Bay of Bengal (THANE) and is becoming more direct towards Tropical Depression Number 4. It is expected to keep on improving within the next days on this equator side.

Vertical wind shear is expected to progressively relax and environmental conditions are expected to consequently become more favorable for further intensification on and after Saturday as two upper level outflow channels build aloft on the both side in the same time.

Available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement for a westward track over the northern edge of the subtropical high pressures within low levels and mid-levels, then more southwestward track under the combined effects of a forecast weakness in the low-level subtropical high pressures (in relationship with a transiting polar through), and of the steering influence of a building ridge east of the system in the mid-levels.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on Tropical Depression 04 will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45301
325. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #26
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM THANE (BOB05-2011)
8:30 AM IST December 29 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm "THANE" Over Southwest Bay Of Bengal

Cyclone Warning for north Tamilnadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast: Red Message

At 3:00 AM UTC, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Thane over southwest Bay of Bengal moved west-southwestward and lays centered near 12.0N 82.5E, about 270 km east of Puducherry, 250 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu) and 420 km north-northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka).

The system is likely to move westwards and cross north Tamil Nadu coast between Nagapattinam and Chennai, close to Puducherry around early Friday morning.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T4.5. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -84C. Associated intense to very intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal between 9.0N to 14.0N and west of 84.5E. The imagery shows irregular eye pattern.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 75 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The central pressure is 976 hPa. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the system center.

Storm surge of about 1 meter height above the astronomical tide would inundate the low lying areas of Chennai and Tiruvallur, Kanchipuram & Villupuram districts of north Tamil Nadu at the time of landfall.

Forecast and Intensity
========================

3 HRS: 12.0N 82.0E - 70-75 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
9 HRS: 12.0N 81.3E - 65-70 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
33 HRS: 12.0N 78.5E - 35-40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
57 HRS: 12.0N 75.7E - 25 knots (Depression)
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45301
Cape York cyclone watch cancelled

The weather bureau has cancelled a Cyclone Watch for Queensland's western Cape York.

The bureau says ex-Tropical Cyclone Grant is moving faster than anticipated and is unlikely to reform before crossing the coast early tomorrow.

The cyclone watch for Thursday Island to the Gilbert River Mouth has been cancelled.

But a severe weather warning has been issued for heavy rain, damaging winds and abnormally high tides for areas north of Karumba to Cardwell.

Cairns-based forecaster Bill O'Connor says the system is picking up speed and will probably cross the coast early tomorrow morning.

"The chance of it actually developing into a tropical cyclone is starting to diminish a little bit - it probably won't quite fit into the category of a category one cyclone," he said.

"It's still going to be an extremely deep tropical low, making its way across that Gulf, and at the moment it looks like it will probably be a little bit quicker than we had been anticipating."

He says the system could still cause flooding.

"Ahead of it, we still will have gales or very strong winds getting onto especially that very northern part of the western side of the Peninsula, north of I suppose Cape Keerweer, with the north-westerly flow of that monsoonal flow pushing on to that part of the Cape, so we've still got those severe weather warnings out," he said.

Emergency Management Queensland (EMQ) says the tropical low off Queensland's west coast is not cause for major concern.

EMQ director for the far north Wayne Coutts says people are well prepared.

"Most of those communities in the Cape are very, very resilient," he said.

"[They] are quite used to the weather and are already cut off in the wet season now anyway, so they can't really drive out of the community.

"The more rain that comes through probably won't affect them all that much."
- ABC

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Grant approaches Cape York

Parts of the Cape York Peninsula have seen the heaviest December rain in years as Ex-Tropical Cyclone Grant approaches.

The monsoon low, which has remained below tropical cyclone strength since Monday, is now moving eastwards across the Gulf Of Carpentaria.

The latest computer models indicate that this system is not expected to redevelop into a cyclone and will cross the Queensland coast near Cape Keer-Weer early on Friday morning.

After days of drenching rain over the Northern Territory's Top End, the heaviest falls moved into the Gulf on Wednesday. As these falls were dragged east by the low, rain intensified over the Cape York Peninsula as the system approached.

Western parts of the Peninsula saw the fist of the approaching heavy rain from Wednesday night. Kowanyama received 70mm in the 24 hours to 9am Thursday, their heaviest rain since March and wettest December day in four years. The heaviest falls this morning were in and around Weipa, which has collected more than 50mm so far.

Heavy rainfall and damaging winds will remain a threat across the Peninsula on Thursday and Friday, with abnormally high tides expected to develop for coastal areas.

Thankfully, the low will continue moving in an easterly direction allowing the heavy falls to contract away from the coast on Saturday.

The system will then move further into the Coral Sea before breaking up into next week.
- Weatherzone
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323. Skyepony (Mod)
West Pacific
98W

Indian Ocean
06B THANE


Southern Hemisphere
04S


03S GRANT

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Definitely getting stronger.
Member Since: Agosto 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4979
New VIZ frame..

Note the Hot Towers evolving in the N semi circle.

Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128275
Link
Member Since: Settembre 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11153
The Uptick in the Dvorak Numbers are in Line with the Cyclone Structure improvement.


Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128275
318. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
317. TropicalAnalystwx13 5:09 AM GMT on December 29, 2011
29/0300 UTC 11.9N 82.4E T5.0/5.0 THANE -- Bay of Bengal

105 mph?



yup, that would be the 90 kts mark based on Dvorak intensity
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29/0300 UTC 11.9N 82.4E T5.0/5.0 THANE -- Bay of Bengal

105 mph?

Member Since: Luglio 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32033
New Viz Frame,

Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128275
The Cyclone Banding Structure has really gone symmetrical in the latest Microwave Loop.


Earlier Wind Field


Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis
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IO062011 - Tropical Cyclone (>64 kt) THANE

AMSU Microwave 89GHz Imagery (4 km Mercator)/Loop

.click Image for Loop

click moving loop to zoom


Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128275
IO062011 - Tropical Cyclone (>64 kt) THANE

Multiplatform Tropical Cyclone Kinetic Energy and Intensity Loop

,,click Image for scale Loop

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2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve

..click image for Loop

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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