Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

All though both the Tuscaloosa and Jopling tornadoes were both EF-5 I think the Joplin tornado had wind speeds well over 300 mph based on damage assements (stronger than that of the Tuscaloosa Tornado).

In case you missed it TAWX13...

Quoting TomTaylor:

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Gah, you always leave people hanging........This would mean what exactly?

This means areas of warm and cool weather or storminess vs pleasant weather will shift accordingly to the pattern change. Of course, areas with anomalous ridging can still have a storm pass through and areas with anomalous troughing can still get pleasant weather, but the longwave pattern dictates the average weather one can expect to find for an area until the pattern changes again.

As a general rule, cold air advection is found on the backside of troughs or in front of ridges, while warm air advection is found ahead of a trough or behind a ridge. Ridges obviously bring pleasant and calm weather while troughs bring stormy weather. Generally speaking, the more amplified the pattern, the shorter the wavelengths will be. Also, under more amplified patterns, the pattern tends to be more stuck or stagnant, whereas less amplified patterns are more progressive. This can lead to extended periods of time with similar weather. Also worth noting that a more amplified pattern does not produce stronger storms as it is usually a sign of a weaker pressure gradient between the polar region and the midlatitude. However,since a more amplified pattern means storms dig down further and ridges push more poleward, this pattern brings unusually strong storms for lower latitudes as well as exceptionally fair weather to higher latitudes.

Quoting StormTracker2K:
How wide was the Joplin Tornado? It looks like 1 1/2 to 2 miles wide.

It was 3/4 to a mile wide. It looks so large because of how close the chasers were, but still, it's an extremely large tornado.

Thanks for the heads up Doc, I'll try to catch you on the only true fair and balanced news program. btw - some great pics on NASA's daily image gallery - amazing how some of the galaxies resemble hurricanes (or vice versa).

Quoting StormTracker2K:
All though both the Tuscaloosa and Jopling tornadoes were both EF-5 I think the Joplin tornado had wind speeds well over 300 mph based on damage assements (stronger than that of the Tuscaloosa Tornado).

I don't think the Tuscaloosa tornado was an EF-5. The final report had the winds at 190mph (a strong EF-4).

It took the Joplin tornado only 30 seconds after it formed to become a wedge tornado. Amazing!

Quoting Ameister12:
It took the Joplin tornado only 30 seconds after it formed to become a wedge tornado. Amazing!

Damn that was a horrible tornado. Radar pic.. Hospital in Joplin..

wow it got quiet quick lol

Jeff did a fine job!!!

Quoting Neapolitan:
It has been very warm across a lot of the U.S. for the past several weeks. For instance, Minneapolis has averaged more than 12 degrees above normal over the past two-and-a-half weeks; Miami has been above normal on all but five of the past 45 days; Chicago, which is having one of its wettest years ever, has nontheless received just 1.7" of snow, far less than the year-end normal of nearly 9"; and if Central Park doesn't get some measurable snow in the next 79 hours, this will be only the third year in the past 140 that NYC has seen no December snow.

While other parts of the world are seeing just the opposite:

26 provinces in Thailand declared cold spell disaster zones (philstar.com) Updated December 28, 2011 04:28 PM

BANGKOK (Xinhua) -- A total of 26 provinces in northern and central parts of Thailand have been declared cold spell disaster zones, the National Disaster Warning Centre said on Wednesday.

The provinces are Chiang Rai, Chiang Mai, Mae Hong Son, Phrae, Uttaradit, Phitsanulok, Nan, Tak, Phayao, Lampang, Lamphun, Petchabun in the North, Sakon Nakhon, Loei, Nong Khai, Nakhon Phanom, Ubon Ratchathani, Mahasarakham, Mukdahan, Kalasin, Buri Ram, Si Sa Ket, Bueng Khan, Udon Thani in the Northeast, and Suphanburi and Ratchaburi in the central part.

In total 277 districts or 25,780 villages were included in the cold spell disaster zones, according to the report.

Link

Apparently, been that way for a few days:

"...12/26/2011...Twenty-two provinces have been declared cold-spell disaster zones..."

"...27/12/2011...Altogether 221 districts in 23 provinces have been declared cold spell disaster zones..."

Looks like this "weather" has been happening for about the past two weeks.

And, in India:

"...NEW DELHI, Dec. 19 (Xinhua) At least 26 people have died so far this year as cold waves intensified across northern India, including the national capital where air and rail services are affected, said meteorological officials on Monday.

Most of these deaths have been reported from the northern state of Uttar Pradesh, where six people lost their lives on Sunday night. Meerut, a city about 100 km north of Delhi, was the coldest place, recording a low of 2.2 degrees Celsius.

Not only the cold wave have intensified in the past 24 hours, fog also tightened its grip over the national capital which has witnessed a minimum temperature of five degrees Celsius, three notches below normal.

Moreover, air and rail services have been affected in the national capital where at least 14 flights were delayed at the Indira Gandhi International Airport and some 30 trains have been rescheduled..."

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 02F
9:00 AM FST December 29 2011
===================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 02F (1002 hPa) located at 17.1S 168.9W is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on multispectral infrared and visible imagery with animation and latest ASCAT pass. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Organization has not improved significantly and convection remains persistent in the past 24 hours. Cyclonic circulation is from surface to 850 HPA. The system lies under an upper diffluent region and highly sheared environment.

Global models have picked up the system and are slowly moving it southeastward with little intensification.

The potential for this disturbance to form into a tropical cyclone within the next 24-48 hours is LOW.

#261 Cold air goes south, warm air goes north.

Quoting presslord:
Jeff did a fine job!!!

Maybe people went to watch Dr. M on the news? Any reviews?

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #24
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM THANE (BOB05-2011)
2:30 AM IST December 29 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm "THANE" Over Southwest Bay Of Bengal

Cyclone Warning for north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast: Orange Message

At 18:00 PM UTC, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Thane over southwest Bay of Bengal moved westward and lays centered near 12.5N 83.5E, about 350 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu) and 500 km north-northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka).

The system is likely to move westwards and cross north Tamil Nadu coast between Nagapattinam and Chennai, close to Puducherry around Friday morning. However, as the cyclonic storm will come further close to coast after 24 hours, there is probability of slight weakening before landfall.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T4.0. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -84C. Associated intense to very intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal between 9.5N to 15.0N and 81.0E to 85.7E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 65 knots with a central pressure of 980 hPa. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the system center.

I missed Dr. Masters on PBS Newshour. :(

Is there any way I can watch it?

Quoting StormTracker2K:
Like Neapolitan said earlier that tornado season is just 2 months away give or take. Amazing! I'm willing to go out on a limb and say this going to be another devasting tornado year coming in 2012 as it looks like the same perameters are going to be in place again thanks to this nagging La-Nina.

I may have to agree – The main factors that made this tornado so devastating were 1.) Weak La Nina/Neutral conditions 2.) A very hot southwest with cold in the northeast and 3.) above average temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico.

This upcoming year, Sea Surface Temperatures will probably be above average, it may eventually get cold across the northern states (northwest especially) and we will have a hot south-central/southwest (we already do). While it won't be as devastating like this year, I'm willing to bet it won't be one of our friendlier years...

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 04-20112012
4:00 AM RET December 29 2011
===================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 04 (999 hPa) located at 12.2S 86.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 11 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24 HRS

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================

90 NM radius from the center extending up to 180 NM in the southwestern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

12 HRS: 12.2S 84.6E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
24 HRS: 12.3S 82.4E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 13.4S 78.5E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 15.6S 75.8E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)

Additional Information
=======================

The low level circulation is still on the eastern border of the cloud mass of deep convection. Lower levels supply is currently good on the two faces of the system. However, system is still undergoing a moderate upper level east vertical wind shear. The upper levels constraint should progressively weaken within the next 36-48 hours. At 48 hours, an upper outflow channel should set up poleward, a second outflow should temporarily set up equatorward on Saturday and Sunday. Intensification should also remain moderate within the next 48 hours but shold heighten beyond. At the end of the forecast range (beginning of next week) upper levels environmental conditions should become less favorable (strengtening of the upper level wind shear).

Available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement for a west track over the northern periphery of the subtropical high pressures of low and mid-troposphere, then more southwest track under the combined effect of the weakening of the subtropical high pressures of low troposphere at the arrival of a trough in the south.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on Tropical Depression 04 will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..

Quoting Ameister12:
I missed Dr. Masters on PBS Newshour. :(

Is there any way I can watch it?

Should be on PBS.ORG on Thursday. They delay online stories by at least 24 hours typically.

Here is a previous JM appearance in May ...
Link

Quoting docrod:


Should be on PBS.ORG on Thursday. They delay online stories by at least 24 hours typically.

Here is a previous JM appearance in May ...
Link

Thanks!

Dangerous Tropical Cyclone Thane is getting very close to India.

Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #41
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER GRANT (04U)
11:00 AM EST December 29 2011
===================================

At 10:00 AM EST, Tropical Low, Former Grant (1001 hPa) located at 14.4S 139.2E, or 250 km west southwest of Cape Keerweer and 350 km southwest of Weipa has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving east at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.0/1.0/W1.0/24 HRS

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Grant is no longer expected to develop into a tropical cyclone. Ex-Tropical Cyclone Grant will continue moving east towards the west coast of Cape York Peninsula as a monsoon low.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is now current for Heavy Rainfall, Damaging Wind Gusts and Abnormally High Tides for areas north of Karumba to Cardwell.

Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=======================

The Cyclone WATCH from Thursday Island to Gilbert River Mouth has been cancelled.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 14.3S 140.7E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 14.4S 142.4E - 20 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 14.6S 146.6E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 15.0S 150.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=====================

Dvorak analysis was not possible, though a FT of 1.0 was applied based on nearby surface observations.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Grant is situated in a moderately sheared environment with CIMMS indicating approximately 15-25 knots of shear across the system. The low level centre is now visible on satellite imagery and most of the convection now appears to be well removed from the centre.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Grant will continue to move east towards the west coast of Cape York Peninsula under the influence of an upper trough moving across eastern Australia. Redevelopment into a tropical cyclone is now deemed a low chance due to a combination of shear created by the upper trough and dry air affecting the system from the south.

There will be no further bulletins for this system unless it re-intensifies.

Oh how the slightest wind shift makes me start to analize everything, lol(look near 170E)

Quoting Ameister12:
Dangerous Tropical Cyclone Thane is getting very close to India.

A little good news from the public advisory...Tropical cyclone (tc) 06b (thane), located approximately 195 nm east- southeast of chennai, India, has tracked westward at 07 knots over the past six hours. The current position is based, with high confidence, on radar imagery from chennai, India. The intensity estimate of 75 knots is consistent with Dvorak T-number values from three reporting agencies ranging from 65 to 77 knots. Recent animated water vapor satellite imagery shows deep convection persisting along the western and southern peripheries of well- defined low level circulation center (LLCC) evident in a 281554z metop-a microwave satellite pass. Radar reflectivity data indicates a slightly elongated low to mid-level eye feature has developed. Tc 06b continues to track westward under the steering influence of the subtropical ridge (str) positioned to the north and the cyclone and should continue tracking westward until making landfall after tau 24. The cyclone lies just to the west of an upper-level anticyclone. Overall, the upper-level environment is marginal, with favorable radial outflow but increasing vertical wind shear. The cyclone is also moving over waters with lower heat content that should, along with increasing vertical wind shear, hold any further intensification to a minimum and produce slight weakening prior to landfall. After landfall, interaction with rough terrain well inland from the relatively flat coastal area will lead to steady dissipation. The numerical model guidance remains in good overall agreement with the current forecast. Maximum significant wave height at 281800z is 22 feet. Next warnings at 290300z, 290900z, 291500z and 292100z.//

Thane starting to look a little ragged on satellite...

1st visible

Sat pic of the blob in the East Pacific..

2ND Visible;

Quoting Ameister12:
Dangerous Tropical Cyclone Thane is getting very close to India.

India is a very populated country, Although luckily it seems to be south of the populated city of Chennai, however very near to the coast of Kumbakonam. Let's just hope its not a India version of Washi.

Drought relief does not look promising .

Quoting Grothar:
2ND Visible;

That's not visible??? lol

3rd visible. Lot of cold cloud tops.

Quoting Grothar:
3rd visible. Lot of cold cloud tops.

uuuh...infrared? lol

Quoting Articuno:

That's not visible??? lol

It is visible, you can see it right? ;)

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It is visible, you can see it right? ;)

I'm getting lolled!

Quoting Grothar:
3rd visible. Lot of cold cloud tops.

Not visible, but it's lovely colored infrared.

Quoting StormTracker2K:
Models are now just giving FL a glancing blow from the cold next week. What a bummer as I was hoping for a nice cold snap down here.

The Euro hasn't backed down on the coming cold for Florida. In fact, the GFS is coming more inline with the King(though not completely yet). Though it has backed off from the Blockbuster noreaster/superstorm it was showing in it's 00z run this morning(yet with a good chunk-sized southern stream impulse, it can't be totally ruled out).

Anylyzing, the best way to describe this winter is JUST WEIRD.

Quoting StormTracker2K:
Like Neapolitan said earlier that tornado season is just 2 months away give or take. Amazing! I'm willing to go out on a limb and say this going to be another devasting tornado year coming in 2012 as it looks like the same perameters are going to be in place again thanks to this nagging La-Nina.

Give or take what? A month? two months?

1950-2010 Tornadoes per Month (E)F1 to (E)F5 Only
Long Term Monthly Max/Min and Quartiles


Link

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It is visible, you can see it right? ;)

Don't be smart to me mister. >:)
jk

The Spring Equinox is on March 20th this year. Give or take a month or two...

Beautiful evening in Lake Worth...53 degrees...Nice walk with the pup. Just perfect weather!

so TC 04S is forecast to make 90 knots? sweet

Why Russian scientists have listed the Siberian earthquake as a 9.5 event
Posted on December 28, 2011
December 28, 2011 – MOSCOW – The intensity of a powerful earthquake that rocked the southeastern part of Siberia on Tuesday reached 9.5, Russian Emergency Situations Minister Sergei Shoigu said at a teleconference in the early hours of Wednesday. “The earthquake’s intensity in the epicenter has been estimated at 9.5. The main threat will come tomorrow morning. As soon as the people wake up, they will see cracks in the walls, stoves, and chimneys,” he said. It was reported earlier that an earthquake reaching 8-9 in the epicenter had been recorded in the Kaa-Khemsky district of Tyva 100 kilometers east of Kyzyl at a depth of 10 kilometers at 7:22 p.m. Moscow time on Tuesday. The earthquake’s magnitude reached 6.7. The tremors were felt in Tyva, Khakasia, the Krasnoyarsk territory and the Irkutsk region. Preliminary reports indicate that the quake did not cause casualties and significant destruction. The population of the Kaa-Khemsky district is about 12,700 people. Emergency Situations Ministry experts are examining communities now. -KYIV


The Russian earthquake scale:

The Russian system measures earthquake intensity and the 9.5 of the Siberian quake does not reflect magnitude. The Medvedev-Sponheuer-Karnik scale, also known as the MSK or MSK-64, is a macroseismic intensity scale used to evaluate the severity of ground shaking on the basis of observed effects in an area of the earthquake occurrence. The scale was first proposed by Sergei Medvedev (USSR), Wilhelm Sponheuer (East Germany), and Vít Kárník (Czechoslovakia) in 1964. It was based on the experiences being available in the early 1960s from the application of the Modified Mercalli scale and the 1953 version of the Medvedev scale, known also as the GEOFIAN scale. With minor modifications in the mid-1970s and early 1980s, the MSK scale became widely used in Europe and the USSR. In early 1990s, the European Seismological Commission (ESC) used many of the principles formulated in the MSK in the development of the European Macroseismic Scale, which is now a de facto standard for evaluation of seismic intensity in European countries. MSK-64 is still being used in India, Israel, Russia, and throughout the Commonwealth of Independent States. The Medvedev-Sponheuer-Karnik scale is somewhat similar to the Modified Mercalli (MM) scale used in the United States. The MSK scale has 12 intensity degrees expressed in Roman numerals (to prevent the use of decimals). –Wikipedia

US warns Iran not to disrupt oil route

Wednesday, December 28, 2011
(12-28) 08:14 PST DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) --

A spokeswoman for the U.S. Navy's 5th fleet is warning Iran that any disruption of traffic flowing though the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil route, "will not be tolerated."

Iran's navy chief warned earlier Wednesday that the Islamic Republic was ready and willing to close the strategic waterway if the West imposes news sanctions targeting Tehran's oil exports over the country's suspect nuclear program.

"Anyone who threatens to disrupt freedom of navigation in an international strait is clearly outside the community of nations; any disruption will not be tolerated," said Fleet spokeswoman Lt. Rebecca Rebarich.

She said the U.S. Navy is "always ready to counter malevolent actions to ensure freedom of navigation."

Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2 011/12/28/international/i081431S62.DTL#ixzz1htHQlU zm

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Beautiful evening in Lake Worth...53 degrees...Nice walk with the pup. Just perfect weather!

50 here out in Royal Palm Beach, supposed to drop to 43. I think the comforter will be used tonight.

Quoting caneswatch:


50 here out in Royal Palm Beach, supposed to drop to 43. I think the comforter will be used tonight.

What's her name? :)

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #25
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM THANE (BOB05-2011)
5:30 AM IST December 29 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm "THANE" Over Southwest Bay Of Bengal

Cyclone Warning for north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast: Orange Message

At 0:00 AM UTC, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Thane over southwest Bay of Bengal moved west-southwestward and lays centered near 12.3N 83.0E, about 300 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu) and 480 km north-northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka).

The system is likely to move westwards and cross north Tamil Nadu coast between Nagapattinam and Chennai, close to Puducherry around Friday morning. However, as the cyclonic storm will come further close to coast, there is probability of slight weakening before landfall.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T4.0. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -86C. Associated intense to very intense convection seen over Bay of Bengal between 9.0N to 13.5N and west of 84.5E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 65 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The central pressure of the system is at 980 hPa. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the system center.

Storm surge of about 1 meter height above the astronomical tide would inundate the low lying areas of Chennai and Tiruvallur, Kanchipuram & Villupuram districts of north Tamil Nadu at the time of landfall.

The system is being tracked by DWR Chennai since 1000 UTC, yesterday. Hence determinaton of location and intensity is of high confidential.

Considering the environmental features, the sea surface temperature is about 27-28C over the region. It is relatively less towards Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka coast becoming 26-27C. The ocean thermal energy is less than 50 kj/cm2 around the system center and near Tamil Nadu and north Sri Lanka coast. The Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 5. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction models predictions, it is expected to remain in phase 5 during next four days. The phase 5 is favorable for intensification.

The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 13.0N and hence helps in westward movement of the system. The vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is increased during last 6 hours and presently between 10-15 knots around the system center today.

Forecast and Intensity
========================

6 HRS: 12.0S 82.3E - 65-70 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
12 HRS: 12.0N 81.5E - 60-65 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 12.0N 78.6E - 35-40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
60 HRS: 12.0N 75.8E - 25 knots (Depression)

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


What's her name? :)

I didn't say anything about a girl LOL