Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm (1000 hPa) located at 41.5N 5.8E, or 200 km southeast of Marseille (France), 233 km west of Ajaccio (Corisa) has sustained winds of 40 knots. The storm is reported moving east at 3 knots.

The center of the cyclone again became better organized with the strongest convection now in the southern and eastern part (maybe enhanced by the jet streak, which passes by to the southeast). Some slow movement to the east occurred but despite a further consolidating cyclone, latest reports do not indicate any strengthening

Since the previous mapping for 7Nov_6pmGMT :
27.6n69.5w has been re-evaluated&altered for STS.Sean's_6amGMT_ATCF
27.4n69.5w, 27.0n69.6w are now the most recent positions
: Starting 7Nov_6amGMT and ending 8Nov_6amGMT

The 4 northern line-segments represent SubTropicalStormSean's path,
and the southernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12amGMT then 6amGMT :
STS.Sean's travel-speed was 4.7mph(7.5k/h) on a heading of 192.6degrees(SSW)
(191.25degrees is midway between SSW and S)
STS.Sean was headed toward passage over ElCopey,DominicanRepublic ~4days8hours from now

Copy&paste may, gdt, 27.7n68.8w-27.6n69.0w, 27.6n69.0w-27.5n69.3w, 27.5n69.3w-27.4n69.5w, 27.4n69.5w-27.0n69.6w, 27.4n69.5w-19.836n71.283w, mtc into the GreatCircleMapper for more info.

Quoting Astrophysics:
Nice photos AussieStorm. Today's weather reminded me of the summer time afternoon thunderstorms in SRQ Florida (where I'm originally from) that form along the sea breeze front. A lot of lightning with these storms though the storms still didn't tower quite as high as the one's I'm use to in Florida. It's been heaps sticky and warm in Sydney the last few days and it appears summer has started (about two months earlier than last year). Kind of reminiscent of May weather in Florida I reckon. Even though I'm from Florida, I seem to feel the heat more in Ozland (when it's actually warm of course) since most apartments and building don't have aircon or insulation.

Where in Sydney are you?

Here a photo from local paper.

Subtropical Storm Sean.
...NEW SUBTROPICAL STORM DEVELOPS MIDWAY BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS...
4:00 AM EST Tue Nov 8
Location: 27.2°N 69.4°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: Stationary
Min pressure: 1002 mb

18-6-3.

Will Rolf be considered an Atlantic storm?

TXMM21 KNES 080630
TCSMED

A. 01M (NONAME)

B. 08/0600Z

C. 41.5N

D. 5.8E

E. THREE/MET-9

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS ALMOST .7 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT
OF 3.0. MET = 2.5 AND PT = 3.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIBLER

Is it not in the NHC area of responsibility?

I live near Maroubra beach but I spend almost half my time at UNSW as a PhD student in Astrophysics. I was at UNSW when the storms came through. Tomorrow I'm driving to Canberra for a student seminar for a few days. I wonder if I will be driving through some storms tomorrow arvo with the atmosphere predicted to be unstable yet again. Whereabouts in Sydney are you from?

Quoting AussieStorm:

Where in Sydney are you?

Here a photo from local paper.

showers here in e. cen fl. what would happen if the astroid clipped the moon while going by. maybe this is what the mayans saw happening to change the position of the equator on earth

Looks like the low in the Mediterranean sea has now fully become tropical. I don't recall ever seeing this much deep convection firing near the center of a polar/nontropical low. I think earlier it was a borderline subtropical/extratropical low but now with deep convection firing near the center I believe this system has fully transitioned into a tropical storm.

Link

Subtropical Storm Sean, the 19th tropical cyclone of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season.

SUBTROPICAL STORM SEAN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192011
700 AM EST TUE NOV 08 2011

AT 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA.

Quoting reedzone:
Go through the alphabet, Sean should be number 18, not 19. Could this possibly mean that Invest 93L that hit Florida last month will be named "Subtropical Storm 18"? Interesting.

You're forgetting about Tropical Depression 10...Remember..the depression in the Eastern Atlantic?

Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Will Rolf be considered an Atlantic storm?

01M has no connections to the Atlantic.

Quoting DDR:

Isn't some rain better than no rain?
Last years dry season lasted 4 months with only 2 inches of rain,i can hardly imagine what your going through.When we have el nino we tend to be much drier in the eastern caribbean.

Yes it will rain here enough to get the roads wet but there will not be anything in the rain gauges, that type of rain when you are 25 to 30 inches down in a 14 month period does not do any good. The weather here during this period is more of a terrible tease. So close yet so far. I have friends and family members moving out of state and out of country due to this horrible drought, I support them in their moves because as long as La Nina is here South Central Texas will remain bone dry. We get a thin line of any weather system and you are fortunate to get between .01 and .10, that does not help with a drought of this magnitude.

How's our Mediterranean storm doing this morning..?

Quoting capelookout:
Troll Alert: JFVwillRockU and TomTaylor

TomTaylor is not a troll, and I'd be nice if you stop coming here just to call out random names.

Quoting capelookout:
Troll Alert: JFVwillRockU and TomTaylor

You're the reason why when i was logged out, TomTaylor's posts were always hidden.
TomTaylor's just kidding to entertain the blog, not troll.



False accuser troll alert:capelookout

Just ignore capelookout, its obvious he's just here to stir up trouble.

Quoting Skyepony:

Great shot!
The Medi-Cane is becoming stronger, and is a trending topic here

Guys, please just ignore the obsessed and disruptive troll's various incarnations (two of whom are trolling about right now). We all know who he is; we're all aware of his different handles. Simply pretend he/they aren't here, and he/they will eventually go away.

Believe it or not, 01M appears to be developing some CDO. It's sheared so it's lopsided, but it certainly looks tropical to me. Visible loop here.

In the meantime, there are some 20'-25' waves just west of Sardinia:

Sean appears to be a borderline Tropical/Subtropical storm. It has characteristics of a subtropical cyclone, yet equally as much characteristics of a tropical cyclone. Additionally...

"AND THE 08/00Z FSU PHASE
EVOLUTION DIAGRAMS BASED OFF THE GFS...UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS
INDICATE THIS SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A SHALLOW-MODERATE DEPTH WARM
CORE."

Kicking up the surf here in East Central Florida. The beaches are taking a beating right now.
Video here.

Link

Weather radar picks up flight of birds and bugs during the Oklahoma earthquake.



As I said before, the US media is in sad shape when a British tabloid provides better overall coverage.

Quoting Astrophysics:
I live near Maroubra beach but I spend almost half my time at UNSW as a PhD student in Astrophysics. I was at UNSW when the storms came through. Tomorrow I'm driving to Canberra for a student seminar for a few days. I wonder if I will be driving through some storms tomorrow arvo with the atmosphere predicted to be unstable yet again. Whereabouts in Sydney are you from?

Tomorrow is meant to be fully energized like it was today. I am near Parramatta. drive safely, i know that road very well.

Quoting ITCZmike:

If you're trying to call me JFV or stormtop, well then you're wrong!!!!

Why are you messing with other peoples' post? You'll get banned for that.

Just gonna ignore you now :)

Quoting aspectre:


Weather radar picks up flight of birds and bugs during the Oklahoma earthquake.



As I said before, the US media is in sad shape when a British tabloid provides better overall coverage.

But don't the bugs normally come out at those times. I watched a doco on bats there that fly to 30,000ft to catch bugs.

Sean is a relatively shallow cyclone.

Only extends near the 300mb mark.

No wonder this is getting more organized under shear.

Quoting reedzone:
Go through the alphabet, Sean should be number 18, not 19. Could this possibly mean that Invest 93L that hit Florida last month will be named "Subtropical Storm 18"? Interesting.

No...system number 10 I believe, was a depression, so it was designated as 10L...which brings the total of "LABELING" TO 19L

19L.SEAN
18L.RINA
17L.PHILIPPE
16L.OPHELIA
15L.NATE
14L.MARIA
13L.LEE
12L.KATIA
11L.JOSE
10L.TEN
09L.IRENE
08L.HARVEY
07L.GERT
06L.FRANKLIN
05L.EMILY
04L.DON
03L.CINDY
02L.BRET
01L.ARLEN

I'm not JFV, don't accuse me. I'm just a detective and informant here, not a conspiracy theorist and not a man in the mental hospital.




Always hear about one's side before you condemn.

To add to what Skyepony said in #490:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
414 PM AKST MON NOV 7 2011

...SEVERE BERING SEA STORM EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING STORM LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF SHEMYA THIS AFTERNOON WILL INTENSIFY INTO ONE OF THE
MOST SEVERE BERING SEA STORMS ON RECORD AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE.

THE STORM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD WINDS OF 40 TO 55 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE WEST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. STRONG WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GUSTS TO 70 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA AND IN AREAS NEAR KOTZEBUE.
WINDS OF 60 TO 75 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND
THE BERING STRAIT COAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH HURRICANE
FORCE OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA AND NORTHERN BERING SEA. THE STRONG
WINDS WILL GENERATE SEAS TO AS HIGH AS 20 FEET OVER THE CHUKCHI
SEA...AND TO 15 TO 25 FEET OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA.

THE STRONG WINDS WILL PUSH LARGE AMOUNTS OF WATER INTO NORTON
SOUND...RAISING SEA LEVELS TO AS HIGH AS 8 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH SEA LEVELS
COMBINED WITH HIGH WAVES WILL PRODUCE SEVERE BEACH EROSION AND
MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SHORES OF
NORTON SOUND AND ALONG THE BERING STRAIT COAST. HIGH WATER
LEVELS WILL PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
SHORE OF NORTON SOUND. STRONG WINDS AND WAVE ACTION MAY PUSH
ICE IN NORTON BAY ON SHORE.

MODERATELY ELEVATED SEA LEVELS AND HIGH WAVES WILL CAUSE
SEVERE BEACH EROSION AND MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
SOUTH AND WEST FACING COASTS OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ALONG THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST FROM CAPE KRUSENSTERN NORTHWEST...
SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO A HIGH AS 70 MPH WILL PRODUCE HIGH
WAVES AND SOME ELEVATION OF SEA LEVELS...RESULTING IN SEVERE
BEACH EROSION AND MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING. THE VILLAGE OF
KIVALINA WILL BE HIGHLY VULNERABLE TO DAMAGE CAUSED BY
BEACH EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING.

THE STORM WILL ALSO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS OVER ALMOST ALL OF THE WEST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AS MUCH AS 14 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA COAST AND
IN PARTS OF THE INTERIOR SEWARD PENINSULA.

AGAIN...THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING
STORM WHICH WILL BE ONE OF THE WORST ON RECORD OVER THE BERING
SEA AND THE WEST COAST.

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm (1003 hPa) located at 42.5N 6.2E, or 156 km southeast of Marseille (France), 210 km west of Ajaccio (Corisa) has sustained winds of 40 knots. The storm is reported moving east northeast at 5 knots.

The new update of SAB now indicates some weakening, as deep convection failed to re-develop mainly in the western part. Water vapor imagery also indicates some dry air intrusion from higher levels, which gradually raises concern about how pronounced the warm core structure is right now. However, intense DMC evolved in the last hour or so mainly in the eastern/northern part and starts to wrap around the center. UW CIMMS also hints on somewhat augmented shear, which should remain steady during the next few hours. The cyclone now starts to increase its forward speed and moves more to the east northeast to northeast. This may be the result of an upper wave, which passes by to the west. Models want to stall this feature just southwest of Liguria as the upper waves moves off to the north later tonight. The risk for strong downpours and gusty winds may increases over far southeast France and probably along the West Ligurian coast during the following hours.

486 AussieStorm "But don't the bugs normally come out at those times. I watched a doco on bats there that fly to 30,000ft to catch bugs."

I suspect that if bugs normally came out flying in such large numbers as to clutter the radar, the bats would be too fat to fly to up to 300feet.

it looks like its loosing (if it hasn't already lost[if it ever even had]) tropical characteristics
was Wrolf an official tropical cyclone?

A Mediterranean storm? Has this ever happened before?

Today is the third anniversary since MH Paloma devistated the Cayman Islands.

Quoting E46Pilot:
A Mediterranean storm? Has this ever happened before?

Link

Activity for January 2009: Hybrid Storm

Mediterranean Hybrid Storm
--------------------------

An interesting hybrid storm system was operating east of northern Sicily and west of the "foot" of the Italian Peninsula in late January. The system displayed a nice "eye-like" feature. A weather station on the north coast of Sicily recorded sustained winds of 35 kts on 28 January. Also, a QuikScat pass revealed some 30-35 kt wind vectors.

The GFS and UKMET phase spaces depicted the system with some warm-core characteristics. SSTs at the time were about 15 C (59 F). That's about all the information I have at the moment. I do have some imagery of the LOW, but have been unable to locate any active links with satellite imagery.