Western Caribbean disturbance 96L growing more organized
A region of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean (Invest 96L) is bringing heavy rains to coastal Nicaragua, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression this weekend. Visible satellite loops show that 96L is beginning to show signs of organization. Some rotation is apparent, and the upper-level cirrus clouds streaming away from the center indicate that 96L is establishing an upper-level outflow channel to the east. The heavy thunderstorm activity is quite limited at present, because a large region of dry air to the east of 96L is interfering with development, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. An ASCAT pass at 11:05 am EDT showed no signs of a surface circulation, with surface winds in the 25 - 30 mph range. Surface pressures are slowly falling at San Andres Island, near the center of 96L. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots in the region, and is expected remain in the moderate range through Monday. Water temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of 96L.
Forecast for 96L
The moderate wind shear and warm waters should allow some modest development of 96L over the next few days, though this will be slowed by the dry air to the storm's east. The models are quite enthusiastic about developing 96L into a tropical depression, and our top four reliable models for forecasting genesis--the ECMWF, GFS, UKMET, and NOGAPS--have all been predicting formation of a tropical depression by Monday in one or more of their runs over the past day. 96L is in an area of weak steering currents, and will move little over the next three days. On Tuesday and Wednesday, a strong trough of low pressure will be passing over the Eastern U.S., and this trough has the potential to turn 96L northwards into Cuba. This is more likely to happen if 96L is stronger and deeper, and thus able to "feel" the upper-level winds the trough will bring. The 12Z run of the GFS model and 00Z runs of the ECMWF and UKMET models predict 96L will develop into a tropical storm that hits Western Cuba on Wednesday or Thursday, and potentially affecting the Cayman Islands, South Florida, and the Bahamas as well. If 96L remains a weak and shallow system, it is more likely to stay trapped in the Western Caribbean and make landfall in Nicaragua. This is the solution of the NOGAPS model, which has 96L moving ashore on Tuesday over Nicaragua as a weak system. NHC gave 96L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook. A hurricane hunter mission is scheduled to investigate 96L Saturday afternoon.
I'll have a new post on Saturday, but might wait until the afternoon, when the hurricane hunter data becomes available.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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(Can't complain then ;) )
Link
But I was told it was only the government that cared?
A lot of the damage in Charley was from "mini swirls" , (high shear zones in the eyewall producing rotating vorticies with damage of greater intensity than the hurricane itself), similar to a tornado. You can do some research on it. Ted Fujita was the one who coined the term. All I know is the wind was intense. Down the road about a mile and a half they recorded a wind gust to 174 mph before the instrument failed, long before the lowest pressure was reached.
1975: 27 tropical depressions, 9 tropical storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes.
Very unusual. With modern data.. I'd be willing to bet the 1975 hurricane season would be more like 27 tropical depression, 18 tropical storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 majors.
Yeah, tomorrow seems like a good time.
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I've not done one of these in a while..
Q: What will the NHC give 96L at 8PM?
A. 60%
B. 70%
C. 80%
D. 90%
E. Higher or lower
Q: What will the NHC give 97L at 8PM?
A. 20%
B. 30%
C. 40%
D. 50%
E. Higher or lower
Now tell me from Navy Water vapor imagery, which of these two systems appears to be more organized?
We might see a couple of storms after these two, but seems 96L and 97L will be the last significant ones IMO.
96L.
97L is rather broad, and is still trying to get a dominant center.
Agreed.
Sounds about right.
Yea, it was an eyewall vorticie that almost got the Doc on his trip into Hugo.
During hurricane Cleo, one of those came through the neighborhood while we were in the eyewall band. You could follow the damage for a block. A tree here, corner of a roof there, flipped a car, twisted two trees in the next door neighbors yard at the base and then tore the backside of our tree, and the one across the street etc... It was jumping up and down as it went, lucky it went over our house with definite spin damage on both sides.
I saw a lot of evidence of that after Andrew too. Lots.
I have always been wary about a storm spinning up just before landfal like Charlie, but to late to move. Didn't matter until I lived ON Indian river... I evacuated for Francis and Jeanne. No surge or erosion issues with Wilma so I stayed.
B and A
Maybe you need to learn a thing or two before coming to post here.
Big, fat -1 for you.
Well then, why'd you like my post? :P
Yeah, I know I'm not supposed to quote people like that...but it happens sometimes.
Note: 29.76 inHg = 1007.79 or ~1007.8.
I got news for you also buddy. If you don't like it here, then by all means, no, as a matter of fact, I insist, don't the door hit you in the rear end on the way out, as its pretty obvious what deck your playing with here..
America?
North America, Central America, or South America?
Be careful when saying America. Latin Americans are Americans as well, technically.
Excuse me, but America is anywhere from Canada to Argentina. I think you mean The United States of America.
No, im sorry. You are the United States of America
Convection fading as unsurprising due to DMIN atm.
Its so hard for me because I'm a teenager, and you know how we are. :P
Note: It's State Fair time here plus Friday football.
I had a good laugh at that.
If 96L forms and I do Mean if the timing of the next front may be the significant player and it MAY get close to the Fla coast because that is the only way for it to go unless it stays basically where it is now weak and meandering then it will go harmlessly away. JMO.
Oh where oh where are you Drakoen?
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