Ophelia brushing Bermuda; Super Typhoon Nalgae hits the Philippines
Hurricane Ophelia is steaming northwards to the east of Bermuda as a powerful Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. Radar out of Bermuda shows that rain bands from Ophelia are beginning to affect the island, though as of noon Saturday, the Bermuda airport has reported just one brief rain shower and a peak wind gust of 21 mph. Recent satellite loops show that Ophelia is well-organized, with a prominent eye, good upper-level outflow, and solid lower-level spiral banding. The models agree that Ophelia will track far enough to the east of Bermuda that the island should see sustained winds below 30 mph, since it will be on the weak (left) side of the storm. The 11 am wind probability forecast from NHC gave Bermuda a 19% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds of 39 mph, and no chance of receiving hurricane force winds. Ophelia's closest approach to the island will be late Saturday night through early Sunday morning. Ophelia is likely to bring high winds and heavy rains to Southeast Newfoundland Monday. The 11 am wind probability forecast for Cape Race, Newfoundland gave it a 47% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds, and a 1% chance of hurricane force winds.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ophelia.
Tropical Storm Philippe no threat to land
In the middle Atlantic, Tropical Storm Philippe continues to struggle against dry air and high wind shear. Satellite loops show Philippe is a small system with little heavy thunderstorm activity, with the surface circulation partially exposed to view by wind shear. Wind shear is a very high 30 - 40 knots, thanks to the upper-level outflow from Ophelia. This shear will remain high through Tuesday, but may relax to the moderate range as Philippe turns towards the north on Wednesday. It is unlikely that Philippe will trouble any land areas.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the computer models is calling for a new tropical storm to form in the coming seven days (though the NOGAPS model shows a strong tropical disturbance forming in the Western Caribbean in about 7 days, something it has erroneously been predicting frequently during the past few weeks.) The large-scale environment over the Atlantic currently favors sinking air, due to the current phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This situation will likely last well into next week, and will discourage formation of new tropical storms. The MJO is a 30 - 60 day cycle of thunderstorm activity that affects the tropics.
Figure 2. True-color MODIS image of Typhoon Nalgae approaching the Philippine Islands, taken at 02:15 UTC Friday, September 30, 2011. At the time, Nalgae was a strengthening Category 1 typhoon with 90 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Super Typhoon Nalgae hits the Philippines
Typhoon Nalgae roared ashore over the Philippines' main island of Luzon as a super typhoon with 150 mph winds at 9 am local time this morning. Nalgae dumped heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches across a large swath of Northern Luzon; 4.81" of rain fell on Viganon the northwest coast of Luzon. The capital of Manila received 0.30" of rain from Nalgae, and experienced wind gusts up to 36 mph. Nalgae is the second major typhoon in a week to hit northern Luzon; on Monday, Typhoon Nesat hit the same region as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds, killing at least 52 people. Nalgae's rains fell on soils already saturated from Nesat's heavy rains, and the potential exists for high loss of life due to extreme flooding and mudslides. Nalgae is expected to follow a track almost exactly the same as Nesat's, passing near China's Hainan Island on Tuesday, and then hitting northern Vietnam.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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sometimes even later nea... some years it takes till november for a good front to come thru without stalling around sarasota. What's weird is that the front had no real moisture....but was strong. THe casino boat had HUGE swells last night off fort myers beach....lots of sick people!
That's cold.
The all time record low for my area (Ft. Myers) is
27 degrees in 1905.
Actually I found a reading of 24 degrees but I don't know the date. I'll have to try to find it.
The Bioluminescence...
That's nice!
One of the prettiest things that I have ever seen is my small children swimming naked at night in luminous water in Tobago.
When they ran out of the sea they were looking like Tinkerbell with green sparkly glowing skin.....
Fantastic!
Actually based on NOAA information the all time record low is 26 degrees.
I think they must be using different locations.
The alltime record for Zephyrhills is 12 back in 1978. I think. I'm at work will check that when i get home.
http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/online/ccd/ex tremelow.html
Temp 75F
Humidity 100%
Winds S/E 8mph
Pressure 1014.
Coming down heavy and constant.
Big change from yesterday when it was 93 at 10 am with 52% humidity....
http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/online/ccd/ex tremelow.html
1924 Cuban Hurricane (10/14 - 10/23)
1998 Hurricane Mitch (10/22 - 11/05)
2005 Hurricane Wilma (10/15 - 10/26)
Wouldn't like that slowly heading toward me, Category 1 Rina. With Ridge built over top.
O man,, fall always welcomed here.
...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE MAIN INTENSITY MODELS FOR NOW AND SHOWS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME RE-STRENGTHENING ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.
HOWEVER...IT IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL...HWRF...AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE...ALL OF WHICH INDICATE THAT PHILIPPE WILL BECOME A
SIGNIFICANT HURRICANE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/1500Z 26.3N 51.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 26.5N 53.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 26.3N 55.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 26.2N 57.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 26.3N 59.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 28.0N 62.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 30.0N 60.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 32.5N 56.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
After Ophelia, who knows what he'll pull..
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 02 2011
OPHELIA HAS BEGUN TO STEADILY WEAKEN WITH THE EYE NO LONGER
DISCERNIBLE IN VISIBLE OR INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. EARLIER
MICROWAVE DATA INDICATED THAT THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EYE WAS
TILTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND THAT THE EYEWALL WAS OPEN
TO THE SOUTH. BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND RECENT
SATELLITE TRENDS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 95 KT.
OPHELIA WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COLDER SSTS WITHIN THE NEXT
12 TO 18 HOURS. THE NEGATIVE OCEANIC CONDITIONS AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OPHELIA IS ALSO FORECAST TO
INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND WILL LIKELY BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR OR JUST AFTER PASSING THE AVALON
PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON MONDAY.
what???
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 02 2011
OPHELIA HAS BEGUN TO STEADILY WEAKEN WITH THE EYE NO LONGER
DISCERNIBLE IN VISIBLE OR INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. EARLIER
MICROWAVE DATA INDICATED THAT THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EYE WAS
TILTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND THAT THE EYEWALL WAS OPEN
TO THE SOUTH. BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND RECENT
SATELLITE TRENDS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 95 KT.
OPHELIA WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COLDER SSTS WITHIN THE NEXT
12 TO 18 HOURS. THE NEGATIVE OCEANIC CONDITIONS AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OPHELIA IS ALSO FORECAST TO
INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND WILL LIKELY BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR OR JUST AFTER PASSING THE AVALON
PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON MONDAY.
what??
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 02 2011
OPHELIA HAS BEGUN TO STEADILY WEAKEN WITH THE EYE NO LONGER
DISCERNIBLE IN VISIBLE OR INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. EARLIER
MICROWAVE DATA INDICATED THAT THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EYE WAS
TILTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND THAT THE EYEWALL WAS OPEN
TO THE SOUTH. BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND RECENT
SATELLITE TRENDS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 95 KT.
OPHELIA WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COLDER SSTS WITHIN THE NEXT
12 TO 18 HOURS. THE NEGATIVE OCEANIC CONDITIONS AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OPHELIA IS ALSO FORECAST TO
INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND WILL LIKELY BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR OR JUST AFTER PASSING THE AVALON
PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON MONDAY.
what???
?
What?
your showing us a black box
??? I got stock in the wording
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