Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting JLPR2:


95L seems to be slowly but surely getting to TD status.
Almost there, but not yet.

And yeah, the disturbance beween Katia and 95L is firing up, though the shear is bad. But Jose formed in the face of high shear caused by another TC too, so anything is possible.

There is also a disturbance that is behind 95L with some spin.

I hope 95L won't pass too far away from us in the N Lesser Antilles, because it has be dry for 2 weeks!

Quoting Melagoo:
is 95L going the same way as the two previous storms Irene and Katia?

I agree. 3 storms Irene, Katia and now 95L all similar tracks (granted Irene made it farther west) But clearly a trend to turn out, north of the Leewards. Model tend to agree.

Quoting GTcooliebai:
There is also a disturbance that is behind 95L with some spin.

Ah yes, the one that came off the coast of Africa early in the morning.



3AOI's in the ATL and one in the GOM/BOC. Lots to follow.

Quoting Hurlo:

The debate in here is setting back logic and reasoning a thousand years.

This comment has added much to the debate.
Brilliant!

:):))

Quoting Hurlo:

The debate in here is setting back logic and reasoning a thousand years.

Another one joins in. Lots of new faces, but an old agenda.

Quoting ncstorm:
Composting plastic: Sustainability and Climate Change (2)

climate change blog is that away----->

+1000:)

Very curious about this, but can Wildfires like the ones in Texas offset the atmosphere, causing the dry air to moisten up, thus resulting in rain? And know I don't mean acid rain.

Also with the change of seasons around the corner and models hinting at a La Nina winter, would Texas have a better chance of receiving rains from Cold Fronts or Tropical Systems? I think if they get a couple of Cold Fronts it could put a hurting on the High Pressure Ridge, thus opening the door for low pressure systems to develop and give them some relief.

watchin the one in front of 95l for development imo

Funny, all the "solutions" to AGW center around taxes and exchange traded financial instruments for the well connected to game for profit. I don't see any mention of putting unemployed people to work planting some trees that would naturally scrub CO2 from the atmosphere and add beauty. It is all about money and power.

Anyway... lets get back to weather.

Quoting CaribBoy:
I hope 95L won't pass too far away from us in the N Lesser Antilles, because it has be dry for 2 weeks!

Dont try that!!
We want 95L down here at 11n 61w.
We booked it already....

Quoting GTcooliebai:
There is also a disturbance that is behind 95L with some spin.

I think the one behind 95L is the one the Euro hinted at moving into the eastern Carb. a few runs back.

Quoting ncstorm:
um whats with the AGW talk..isnt there a cat 3 in the atlantic right now?

Yes, but it's going to get worse - much worse...

Link

The wave train continues, as another strong tropical wave has emerged off of the coast. This too will need to be watched....another latitude one embedded in deep tropical moisture, with windshear less then prohibitive.

gotta book early pottery! Good seats are hard to come by!

Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Tuesday, September 6th, with Video

Quoting JamesSA:
Funny, all the "solutions" to AGW center around taxes and exchange traded financial instruments for the well connected to game for profit. I don't see any mention of putting unemployed people to work planting some trees that would naturally scrub CO2 from the atmosphere and add beauty. It is all about money and power.

Very Good Post.
Planting trees is the obvious solution to much of the CO2 increase.
Deforestation is one of the main things causing the increase in CO2, although this is loudly debated in small circles.
In Industialised Countries like the USA, it is never mentioned at all....

Quoting jpsb:
Australia is doing a carbon tax? That SUCKS!

Yeah, The Prime Minister LIED about it before being re-elected last year.

The Massive flooding that my country experienced is not the worst flooding these areas have ever experienced, 1974 Brisbane was flooded to a height of 5.5mts/18ft.


This is the History of Flooding in Brisbane.

note the 8.5mtr/27.9ft in 1841 and 1890.

Quoting Clearwater1:
I think the one behind 95L is the one the Euro hinted at moving into the eastern Carb. a few runs back.

GFS last week was consistently developing a hurricane in the NW Caribbean out of the wave behind 95L but it has since dropped it.. it may pick it up now that it is little more defined...nothing on 12Z GFS though...

Quoting JLPR2:


Ah yes, the one that came off the coast of Africa early in the morning.



3AOI's in the ATL and one in the GOM/BOC. Lots to follow.

On your graphic, the blob between 95L and Katia; I think the gfs and the euro at one point developed it and moved into the Islands, but then dropped it. It's getting confusing with all the action, but I think that was the case a few days back. I'm not sure, but even that may turn into something. imo

So far Lee has gave me 4inches of rain. Still under another tornado watch and flood watch though. A apparent tornado missed me by a few miles though. I was surprised to see this type of damage on the side of the mountain.


Wilkes County, NC

I am unaware of any scientific paper that concludes that AGW is "runaway warming." Can you link to me at least one, though several would be better?

To be honest, I'm not sure I've seen or read about any paper that treats "runaway warming" as something that happens... ever. Climate reaches equilibrium with its inputs and outputs as adjusted by atmospheric chemistry, at a rate determined by the difference between the current state and equilibrium.

Quoting MNhockeymama:

Patrap... expressing an opinion.)

ugh... mind your boldness please, lest poofing be a hidden desire

Quoting TXMegaWatt:


What a great reply! The CSAPR will not only affect the working reliability of Texas' already stretched electric grid, but will be a catastrophe for the economy of Texas. This will eliminate many good jobs in poor east Texas counties, cut tax revenues paid by power plants to schools and other government recipients, and drive the price of electricity through the roof. This rule will force Texas to fire up old natural gas fired plants that have been mothballed for 5 years and up. This inevitably will cause natural gas prices to skyrocket forcing energy providers to raise the price per kilowatt hour for consumers to accommodate fuel prices.

Look, I'm all for moving to a green, renewable energy based electric system in Texas. It just cant come at the unreasonable expense of thousands of Texans needing these jobs. Solution- set a reasonable date to comply with these emission limits. Allow Texas energy companies time to retrofit equipment and erect new state-of-the art renewable facilities. The government needs to compromise on this one, not bully their way.

Sorry for the political inquiry, back to the weather :)

Excellent!!

Quoting Walshy:
So far Lee has gave me 4inches of rain. Still under another tornado watch and flood watch though. A apparent tornado missed me by a few miles though. I was surprised to see this type of damage on the side of the mountain.


Wilkes County, NC

was that a house?

Quoting splash3392:
gotta book early pottery! Good seats are hard to come by!

Well, I have had my Order in, since around July 20th !!
June was really wet, but since then, not enough.
But we did get a 5" torrent last Saturday, in 2 hours flat. 4" in the first hour, and an inch in the second....
A small shower this morning, maybe 1 mm.

Quoting GTcooliebai:
There is also a disturbance that is behind 95L with some spin.

all that really matter right now is the ones that might hit the islands and conus boc & t.w just east of windwards

Quoting ncstorm:


was that a house?

Not sure. I was not allowed through all of the area. Police blocked it off and I think there was a gas leak somewhere close on Green Street.

NWS Blacksburg is coming down today to look.

the supposed high pressure setup really has not evolved yet as anticipated. proof is in the pudding with models agreeing on a recurve for 95L

it seems like maybe mid september a pattern change could occur but those troughs are so persistent

337 Pottery

We were supposed to get severe weather today but it dissipated before it got to us. We got a few sprinkles but not enough. We're not in bad shape water wise but a little rain is always welcome.

Quoting pottery:

Dont try that!!
We want 95L down here at 11n 61w.
We booked it already....

lol!!!

hey levi,

the disturbance that u mentioned on your tidbit in the western Caribbean, could it be the wave just in front of 95l?

Interesting little piece of info from the NWS here in Houston:
In last nights update they noted they have not issued a Flash Flood Watch or Warning since Sept 7, 2010! And lord knows, Houston knows how to flood.

Quoting STLweatherjunkie:

First of all nobody is forcing you to use a different light bulb. If you would rather pay more money to get a similar amount of light, and pay to replace that light bulb more often. Knock yourself out (kind of like taxing yourself for being ignorant).

Secondly, when the earth cools, when is that going to happen? The growing season was really long in Texas this year, I wonder how far below average their yields were due to lack of rain. Climate change imposes greater risk into agriculture and livestock management because you dont know which year your going to have a drought and which will be a flood. As it can be seen from the Texas and Russian droughts and heat, the Mississippi river, flooding in montana/north dakota, the northeast from Irene these flood/drought cycles will continue to get more extreme and it will incur at the very least similar expenses to produce similar amounts of food than a cooling period.

Lastly, you bring up giving up freedoms for global warming, classic American standpoint. I am still living, I don't want to change nothing since I'm perfectly happy where I am. What freedoms would you be willing to give up if you couldn't find water? what freedoms would you be willing to give up if you couldn't leave your house because the flood waters were rising up into your living room?

1. Traditional incandescent lightbulbs are being phased out in 2012. CFLs are more expensive and made with enough mercury that it requires a hazmat team to clean up if one breaks.

2. The flooding in the Dakotas (not the Fargo floods which happen every year heavy snow is followed by quick melting - and has been happening since before electricity, coal plants and autos) were caused by the Army Corps of Engineers mismanaging the damn/reservoir systems they are in charge of: http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/aug2011/2011-08-22 -091.html

3. The flooding down the Mississippi also could have been helped had there been better management of the dam system - it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that when there is flooding in St. Paul MN that the flooding will also occur down the river. Better planning is needed, not a freak out about global warming.

4. As has been mentioned repeatedly on this blog, Texas saw record drought in the 1950s, similar to what is happening now. And, if I remember correctly, wasn't there some kind of a drought issue during the Depression? Part of the DustBowl was caused by lack of good farming methods, but was it also man-made global warming?

5. Btw, the only real estate market that is actually seeing a boom is rural land with a water source.

Whatever I say won't make a difference. I have friends who believe that what we're seeing with the weather and earthquakes is a sign of the end of days. I won't argue with them - that makes as much sense to me as global warming does.

I refuse to give up any freedoms in the name of global warming and don't expect anyone else to do so either. If the floods reached my living room I'd hope I had good flood insurance. (And be bummed that floods don't take out power lines very often so that my husband could be working to put them back up.)

It looks like we might get Tropical Depression #14 later today.