Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Texas fires will diminish today; Lee's rains set all-time records

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 01:27 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011

+32

East Texas' dangerous fires continued to rage out of control yesterday, thanks to gusty north winds associated with the passage of a cold front and the remnant circulation of Tropical Storm Lee. Since Saturday, wildfires have torched over 500 homes in East Texas and killed two people. At Austin Bergstrom Airport, sustained winds of 20 - 25 mph, gusting to 30 - 35 mph blew much of the day yesterday. Tropical Storm Lee's remnants didn't bring any clouds or moisture to Austin yesterday, and the temperature climbed to 91°, with a humidity of just 11%. With the region enduring it's driest 1-year drought on record, yesterday's heat, dryness, and winds resulted in critical fire conditions. The forecast today for Austin is much better--winds will be only 5 - 10 mph, which should give firefighters the upper hand in many of the blazes, despite low humidities that will be in the 15 - 25% range. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is not predicting that critical fire weather conditions will return during the remainder of the week. You can monitor today's fire activity by using our wundermap for Austin with the fire layer turned on.

Figure 1. True-color image taken by NASA's Aqua satellite of the the fires burning near Austin, Texas on September 5, 2011. Image credit: NASA.

Video 1. Video shot by a motorist on Highway 21 near Austin, Texas of the smoke from the fires that raced through Bastrop County on September 4, 2011.The highway closes and the motorist is forced to turn around.

Texas' unprecedented heat
As I reported in yesterday's post, there has never been a Texas summer hotter than the summer of 2011. The summer of 2011 now holds every major heat record for the city of Austin, including most 100° days (67 so far), hottest month in recorded history (August, breaking the previous record by a remarkable 2.1°), hottest summer (by 1.1°), and hottest day in history (112°F, tied with Sep, 5, 2000.) As wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt documents in his latest blog post, the situation is similar across the rest of the state. Seventeen major cities in Texas recorded their hottest summer on record in 2011. Most of these stations had records extending back more than 100 years, and several of the records were smashed by an amazing 3.4°F--at Lubbock and at Wichita Falls. Neighboring states also experienced unprecedented heat, with Oklahoma recording America's hottest month by any state in recorded history during July, and Shreveport, Louisiana breaking its record for hottest month by 3°F in August. Mr. Burt commented to me: " I do not believe I have ever seen a site with a long period of record, like Shreveport, where records go back to 1874, break its warmest single month on record by an astonishing 3°. This is unheard of. Usually when a site breaks its single month temperature record, we are talking about tenths of a degree, rarely a whole degree, let alone 3 degrees! Hard to believe, frankly." Texas has also had its worst fire season on record, with over 3.5 million acres burned this year, and it's driest 1-year period in recorded history.

Figure 2. Observed soil moisture for Sunday Sep 4, 2011. Soil moisture is expressed in percent, with 50% being a historically average soil moisture level. Very dry soils, with moistures in the driest 1% - 30% in history (red and orange colors), were present over much of the south, where Lee dropped its heaviest rains. These dry soils have limited flooding damage. Image credit: N OAA Climate Prediction Center.

Heavy rains from Lee create significant flooding
Tropical Storm Lee is no more, but its remnants are marching slowly northeastwards along a stalled cold front, bringing torrential rains. Jackson, Mississippi received 11.68" in a 24 hour period yesterday, which is that city's heaviest 24-hour rainfall on record, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt. Their previous record was 8.54", set April 11 -12, 1979. Fortunately, Jackson was in severe drought, and the dry soils were able to absorb a significant amount of rain before the local rivers began flooding. The Pearl River at Jackson rose above flood stage this morning, and is expected to crest at moderate flood stage late this week. Chattanooga, Tennessee also set its record for the wettest 24-hour period in its history, with 9.85" falling yesterday. The previous record was 7.61", set on March 30, 1886. Again, the dry soils that were present before the event started will help keep river flooding in the minor to moderate range on area rivers. Soils are at near-average moisture levels in Central Pennsylvania, where Lee's remnants are expected to drop over seven inches of rain over the next two days. These rains should cause moderate and possibly major flooding in Pennsylvania. Also of concern is the potential for tornadoes today. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has logged 25 tornado reports over the past three days from Lee, including three near Atlanta, Georgia yesterday. More tornadoes are likely today over North Carolina, Southern Virginia, and Northern South Carolina, where SPC is predicting a "Slight Risk" of severe weather.

Lee's heaviest rain amounts, by state, as of 4 am CDT today:

Holden, LA: 15.43"
Florence, MS: 13.45"
Tillman's Corner, AL: 11.74"
Milton, FL: 10.03"
Chattanooga, TN: 9.85"
Rome, GA: 5.70"
Roanoake, VA: 4.30"
Bluefield, WV: 3.14"
Bridge City, TX: 3.12"
Flatwoods, KY: 3.67"

Figure 3. Predicted rainfall for the 2-day period 8am EDT Tuesday - 8 am EDT Thursday, Sep 8, 2011. Lee's remnants are expected to bring a large swath of 7+ inches of rain into Central Pennsylvania. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Hurricane Katia
Hurricane Katia strengthened this morning into the Atlantic's first Category 4 hurricane of the year, but has slipped slightly in intensity due to an eyewall replacement cycle, and is now a strong Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. Latest satellite loops show that the eye has now disappeared, and the hurricane is having trouble maintaining its eyewall in the face of moderate wind shear of 10 - 15 knots on its northwest side. Continued weakening to a Category 2 storm is a possibility, though Katia will probably re-strengthen later today or on Wednesday once it manages to build a new eyewall.

The computer models continue to agree that a low pressure system over the Eastern U.S. associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee will turn Katia to the north well before the storm reaches the U.S. As the storm moves northwards past North Carolina, Katia will get caught up in west-to-east moving winds associated with the jet stream, and taken northeastwards out to sea. No land areas are in Katia's cone of uncertainty, and Katia's outer rainbands should remain just offshore from North Carolina, New England, and the Canadian Maritime provinces at the point of closest approach. The main impact of Katia will be high surf leading to beach erosion and dangerous rip currents. Long period swells from Katia have arrived at the coast, and the entire U.S. East Coast will receive an extended multi-day period of high surf. The East Coast is lucky that Tropical Storm Lee came along, since Lee helped to create the steering pattern that will keep Katia from hitting the U.S.

Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Katia.

95L off the coast of Africa
A large tropical wave with plenty of intense thunderstorm activity and spin is located about 700 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa. This wave, Invest 95L, is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and is headed west to west-northwest at 15 mph. Recent satellite loops show that 95L has an elongated circulation center; this will need to tighten up into a more circular shape before the storm can become a tropical depression. Water vapor satellite images show that 95L is embedded in a very moist environment. Ocean temperatures are near 28°C, which is 1.5°C above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed for a tropical storm to form. With wind shear predicted to remain low to moderate the next four days, the atmosphere expected to stay moist, and ocean temperatures predicted to gradually warm, I don't see anything that would keep 95L from becoming a tropical depression in 1 - 2 days. NHC is giving 95L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. There is a large amount of model support for development of 95L into a tropical depression, with most of the models predicting it could be a weak tropical storm by the time it reaches the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Friday or Saturday. Residents of the islands should anticipate the possibility of tropical storm conditions arriving as early as Friday. Most of the models predict 95L will follow a path near or slightly north of the Northern Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico, then curve northwestwards, on a trajectory that would likely miss the Bahamas.

New Gulf of Mexico disturbance
A cold front swept into the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas behind Tropical Storm Lee yesterday morning, and has stalled out along a line from Tampa, Florida to Mexico's Bay of Campeche in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Heavy thunderstorms have begun to build along the tail end of this front in the Bay of Campeche, but are still not very concentrated or organized. Most of the computer models develop a tropical depression in the Bay of Campeche late this week, and these same models did very well at anticipating the formation of Tropical Storm Lee in the Gulf of Mexico last week. Given the moderate wind shear, warm waters, and presence of an old cold front to serve as a nucleus for development, a new Gulf of Mexico tropical depression by late this week appears likely. The path such a storm might take would depend strongly on where the center forms. A more northerly formation location near the top of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula would likely result in a northward motion towards the Florida Panhandle. This is the solution of the European Center Model (ECMWF), which takes a weak tropical storm with a central pressure of 1000 mb into the Florida Panhandle on Sunday. A more southerly formation location might lead to the storm getting trapped in a region of weak steering currents, resulting in a slow, erratic motion in the southern Gulf. This is the solution of the latest runs of the GFS, NOGAPS, and UKMET models. NHC is giving this disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday.

Figure 5. Volunteers with Portlight.org disaster relief charity take a break from their Hurricane Irene relief efforts in Pink Hill, NC. From their latest blog post:Please help as you can. And please remember in your thoughts and prayers those in the path of Irene.

Jeff Masters

Crockett Texas Wildfire 2 (Moussifer)

A tree becomes a torch. We could hear the fire's roar.

Bastrop's Burnin (CenTexWeatherGal)

This HUGE fire has already burned over 500 homes and over 30,000 acres. It is 0, yes 0 percent contained and stretches 16 miles long and 6 miles wide. The smoke plume can be seen on dopler radar. This fire is actually to the north east of Bastrop which is east of Austin.

Magnolia Fire (shanzi)

Mighty close!

flood (lazzyhazy1)

Categories: Fire Flood Hurricane

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2454. islander101010 12:32 PM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
boc it'd be nice to see the models shift wnw right into texas Member Since: Settembre 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2970

2455. jpsb 12:33 PM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
Quoting CoopsWife: Think it may be cold MidAtlantic as well. Already have 2 cords stacked for the winter. Of course, I got them stacked about 10 days prior to Irene's arrival, and then fretted about all the 'missiles' in the yard. At least I hadn't split any kindling, LOL. I gonna have to work on my wood pile too. This winter I am not going to try to heat all of this old bay house, gonna close most of it off and just heat a couple of rooms. The north winds just blows right thru these old homes that were built mostly as summer time get aways for Houstons' rich. Member Since: Giugno 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 578

2457. presslord 12:33 PM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
Dewey...How's your Gang today? Member Since: Agosto 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10377

2458. JupiterFL 12:33 PM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
Quoting thesituation: Im wondering if I should start putting my shutters up Probably Member Since: Agosto 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146

2461. GeoffreyWPB 12:35 PM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
Member Since: Settembre 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9127

2462. HurricaneDean07 12:35 PM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
Tropics Forecast For September 7th, 2011: TD 14 will be named Maria later today, Katia will remain a Category 1 as she begins her turn out to sea and another Tropical Depression(#15) could form tonight or tomorrow. We need to keep an eye on the Tropical waves behind Td14, due to the fact that the GFS is forecasting a Caribbean cruiser to come up the florida east coast as a Strong TS/Cat 1. Then another wave is shown by the Euro to form off of Africa around the 7 to 10 day range. Member Since: Ottobre 3, 2010 Posts: 39 Comments: 4054

2466. justalurker 12:37 PM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
doesn't it feel that katia is been a hurricane now forever! she is definetly moving like a... Member Since: Agosto 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 157

2467. farupnorth 12:38 PM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
Quoting justalurker: a bit north of forecast point Don´t say that on here. WEST is the course all the way up to Greenland ;) Member Since: Agosto 4, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 118

2468. stoormfury 12:39 PM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
TRACK OF 14L SHOULD TAKE IT JUST NORTH OF MARTINIQUE AS A WEAK STORM BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON Member Since: Agosto 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2304

2469. justalurker 12:40 PM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
Quoting farupnorth: Don´t say that on here. WEST is the course all the way up to Greenland ;) I say it as I see it :) Member Since: Agosto 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 157

2470. whepton3 12:41 PM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
Quoting FLdewey: BAMS is running low on batteries again... Nice sitch... nice. guess that just goes to show how far south she could get if she stays weak. If that starts to play out... I'm clipping cheetos coupons.... and going to find a sharpie. Member Since: Luglio 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 637

2472. 69Viking 12:42 PM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
Quoting stormhank: Is the invest in the BOC suppose to affect the northern gulf coast or head into mexico?? Initial models seem to have it doing circles in the BOC. Nice to see it civil here today, or at least a lot more civil than last night! Member Since: Agosto 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2247

2473. marknmelb 12:44 PM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
Quoting thesituation: What is the sharpie for? To write the SSAN on your arm for identification purposes if you ride out a storm and don't make it. Member Since: Luglio 17, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 392

2475. whepton3 12:45 PM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
Quoting thesituation: What is the sharpie for? or to write "don't work" on the power pole on your street.. Member Since: Luglio 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 637

2476. CoopsWife 12:48 PM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
@ 2455 - Not too hard to heat this place - but we do love an open fire, and it certainly is nice to have a heat source when the power goes out. Wasn't much fun hauling wood through that 14 inches we got last winter though :) Member Since: Giugno 19, 2006 Posts: 63 Comments: 4167

2477. Clearwater1 12:49 PM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: HURRICANE KATIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 37A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011 800 AM AST WED SEP 07 2011 ...KATIA CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.0N 68.4W ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES She will just not go away, it seems my kids will graduate college before she's gone. geez! Member Since: Agosto 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1502

2480. scooster67 12:53 PM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
Quoting FLdewey: Only if you're trying to avoid the people from Rent-A-Center. LMAO I managed stores for them from 2003-2008. Member Since: Settembre 26, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 637

2481. mobilebayal 12:53 PM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
2474.......must say that made me laugh! Woke up to 59 degrees in Mobile. Had to dig out a coat to put on. Member Since: Agosto 17, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1097

2482. BobinTampa 12:53 PM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
Quoting P451: Looks like Recon is heading into 96L. Could have an upgrade soon. dude, you have WAY too much time on your hands. Classic. Member Since: Agosto 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 508

2483. GeoffreyWPB 12:57 PM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
It seems we have Maria... AL, 14, 2011090712, 128N, 410W, 35, 1005, TS Member Since: Settembre 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9127

2484. kshipre1 12:58 PM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
dean, this caribbean cruiser the gfs is foreasting, how many days out is this potentially? Member Since: Luglio 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130

2485. bird72 01:03 PM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
Quoting GeoffreyWPB: It seems we have Maria... AL, 14, 2011090712, 128N, 410W, 35, 1005, TS Link please? Member Since: Agosto 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 388

2486. BobinTampa 01:04 PM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
Quoting thesituation: Whats the cliffnotes story about the shower curtain guy? I see his picture sometimes on here. cliff notes: under a screenname you used to have, you know exactly what the full story is. Member Since: Agosto 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 508

2487. GeoffreyWPB 01:06 PM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
Quoting bird72: Link please? Link Member Since: Settembre 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9127

2488. bird72 01:07 PM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
Quoting GeoffreyWPB: ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/invest_al1 42011.invest thanks.:) Member Since: Agosto 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 388

2489. BioWeather 01:07 PM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. Member Since: Settembre 3, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 365

2490. weathers4me 01:12 PM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
Is it just me or does it seem like Katia has been around forever. I'm tired of seeing her.. We need to be aware of the BOC system. It will be large if it does get going and will affect a large area. Member Since: Maggio 24, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 112

2491. hcubed 01:13 PM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
Quoting BobinTampa: cliff notes: under a screenname you used to have, you know exactly what the full story is. Personally, you're being too kind. The real cliff notes version for "shower curtain guy" would contain a lot of spanish curse words. He's more entertaining when he's mad... Member Since: Maggio 18, 2007 Posts: 286 Comments: 1639

2492. GeoffreyWPB 01:13 PM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
Member Since: Settembre 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9127

2493. Drakoen 01:15 PM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
96L looking good this morning: Member Since: Ottobre 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

2494. 7544 01:17 PM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
ts maria ?? Member Since: Maggio 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5925

2495. AussieStorm 01:18 PM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
This is looking like Irene Pt. II Member Since: Settembre 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13366

2496. Gearsts 01:18 PM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
Quoting 7544: ts maria ?? Yep finally :) Member Since: Agosto 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2018

2497. weathers4me 01:19 PM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
ts maria ?? agree but most likely a depression/TS by 5pm IMO Member Since: Maggio 24, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 112

2498. hurricane23 01:19 PM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
00Z ECM brings what is now TS maria fairly close to SFL. Member Since: Maggio 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13277

2499. scoobert 01:20 PM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
To all you experts out there...is there any hope of the ridge moving away from Texas to allow us to get some of rain out of this system in the BOC? Thanks! Member Since: Settembre 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5

2500. Matt74 01:21 PM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
Quoting P451: Looks like Recon is heading into 96L. Could have an upgrade soon. Haha! Now thats funny! Member Since: Giugno 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 203

2501. aspectre 01:22 PM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
H.Katia's_12pmGMT_ATCF : Starting 6Sept_12pmGMT and ending 7Sept_12pmGMT The 4 eastern line-segments represent HurricaneKatia's path, the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection, and the coastline blob at 35.013n76.315w-12NC is the endpoint of the most recent previous straightline projection connected to its nearest airport. Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6amGMT then 12pmGMT : H.Katia's travel-speed was 10.7mph(17.2k/h) on a heading of 310.6degrees(NW) H.Katia was headed toward passage over EmeraldIsle,NorthCarolina ~2days10hours from now Copy&paste 35.013n76.315w-12nc, 26.7n65.6w-27.3n66.4w, 27.3n66.4w-27.8n66.9w, 27.8n66.9w-28.4n67.6w, 28.4n67.6w-29.0n68.4w, 60nc, 28.4n67.6w-34.709n76.959w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info The previous mapping (for 7Sept_6amGMT) Member Since: Agosto 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4846

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