Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Texas fires will diminish today; Lee's rains set all-time records
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 01:27 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011 +32
East Texas' dangerous fires continued to rage out of control yesterday, thanks to gusty north winds associated with the passage of a cold front and the remnant circulation of Tropical Storm Lee. Since Saturday, wildfires have torched over 500 homes in East Texas and killed two people. At Austin Bergstrom Airport, sustained winds of 20 - 25 mph, gusting to 30 - 35 mph blew much of the day yesterday. Tropical Storm Lee's remnants didn't bring any clouds or moisture to Austin yesterday, and the temperature climbed to 91°, with a humidity of just 11%. With the region enduring it's driest 1-year drought on record, yesterday's heat, dryness, and winds resulted in critical fire conditions. The forecast today for Austin is much better--winds will be only 5 - 10 mph, which should give firefighters the upper hand in many of the blazes, despite low humidities that will be in the 15 - 25% range. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is not predicting that critical fire weather conditions will return during the remainder of the week. You can monitor today's fire activity by using our wundermap for Austin with the fire layer turned on.


Figure 1. True-color image taken by NASA's Aqua satellite of the the fires burning near Austin, Texas on September 5, 2011. Image credit: NASA.


Video 1. Video shot by a motorist on Highway 21 near Austin, Texas of the smoke from the fires that raced through Bastrop County on September 4, 2011.The highway closes and the motorist is forced to turn around.

Texas' unprecedented heat
As I reported in yesterday's post, there has never been a Texas summer hotter than the summer of 2011. The summer of 2011 now holds every major heat record for the city of Austin, including most 100° days (67 so far), hottest month in recorded history (August, breaking the previous record by a remarkable 2.1°), hottest summer (by 1.1°), and hottest day in history (112°F, tied with Sep, 5, 2000.) As wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt documents in his latest blog post, the situation is similar across the rest of the state. Seventeen major cities in Texas recorded their hottest summer on record in 2011. Most of these stations had records extending back more than 100 years, and several of the records were smashed by an amazing 3.4°F--at Lubbock and at Wichita Falls. Neighboring states also experienced unprecedented heat, with Oklahoma recording America's hottest month by any state in recorded history during July, and Shreveport, Louisiana breaking its record for hottest month by 3°F in August. Mr. Burt commented to me: " I do not believe I have ever seen a site with a long period of record, like Shreveport, where records go back to 1874, break its warmest single month on record by an astonishing 3°. This is unheard of. Usually when a site breaks its single month temperature record, we are talking about tenths of a degree, rarely a whole degree, let alone 3 degrees! Hard to believe, frankly." Texas has also had its worst fire season on record, with over 3.5 million acres burned this year, and it's driest 1-year period in recorded history.


Figure 2. Observed soil moisture for Sunday Sep 4, 2011. Soil moisture is expressed in percent, with 50% being a historically average soil moisture level. Very dry soils, with moistures in the driest 1% - 30% in history (red and orange colors), were present over much of the south, where Lee dropped its heaviest rains. These dry soils have limited flooding damage. Image credit: N OAA Climate Prediction Center.

Heavy rains from Lee create significant flooding
Tropical Storm Lee is no more, but its remnants are marching slowly northeastwards along a stalled cold front, bringing torrential rains. Jackson, Mississippi received 11.68" in a 24 hour period yesterday, which is that city's heaviest 24-hour rainfall on record, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt. Their previous record was 8.54", set April 11 -12, 1979. Fortunately, Jackson was in severe drought, and the dry soils were able to absorb a significant amount of rain before the local rivers began flooding. The Pearl River at Jackson rose above flood stage this morning, and is expected to crest at moderate flood stage late this week. Chattanooga, Tennessee also set its record for the wettest 24-hour period in its history, with 9.85" falling yesterday. The previous record was 7.61", set on March 30, 1886. Again, the dry soils that were present before the event started will help keep river flooding in the minor to moderate range on area rivers. Soils are at near-average moisture levels in Central Pennsylvania, where Lee's remnants are expected to drop over seven inches of rain over the next two days. These rains should cause moderate and possibly major flooding in Pennsylvania. Also of concern is the potential for tornadoes today. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has logged 25 tornado reports over the past three days from Lee, including three near Atlanta, Georgia yesterday. More tornadoes are likely today over North Carolina, Southern Virginia, and Northern South Carolina, where SPC is predicting a "Slight Risk" of severe weather.

Lee's heaviest rain amounts, by state, as of 4 am CDT today:

Holden, LA: 15.43"
Florence, MS: 13.45"
Tillman's Corner, AL: 11.74"
Milton, FL: 10.03"
Chattanooga, TN: 9.85"
Rome, GA: 5.70"
Roanoake, VA: 4.30"
Bluefield, WV: 3.14"
Bridge City, TX: 3.12"
Flatwoods, KY: 3.67"


Figure 3. Predicted rainfall for the 2-day period 8am EDT Tuesday - 8 am EDT Thursday, Sep 8, 2011. Lee's remnants are expected to bring a large swath of 7+ inches of rain into Central Pennsylvania. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Hurricane Katia
Hurricane Katia strengthened this morning into the Atlantic's first Category 4 hurricane of the year, but has slipped slightly in intensity due to an eyewall replacement cycle, and is now a strong Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. Latest satellite loops show that the eye has now disappeared, and the hurricane is having trouble maintaining its eyewall in the face of moderate wind shear of 10 - 15 knots on its northwest side. Continued weakening to a Category 2 storm is a possibility, though Katia will probably re-strengthen later today or on Wednesday once it manages to build a new eyewall.

The computer models continue to agree that a low pressure system over the Eastern U.S. associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee will turn Katia to the north well before the storm reaches the U.S. As the storm moves northwards past North Carolina, Katia will get caught up in west-to-east moving winds associated with the jet stream, and taken northeastwards out to sea. No land areas are in Katia's cone of uncertainty, and Katia's outer rainbands should remain just offshore from North Carolina, New England, and the Canadian Maritime provinces at the point of closest approach. The main impact of Katia will be high surf leading to beach erosion and dangerous rip currents. Long period swells from Katia have arrived at the coast, and the entire U.S. East Coast will receive an extended multi-day period of high surf. The East Coast is lucky that Tropical Storm Lee came along, since Lee helped to create the steering pattern that will keep Katia from hitting the U.S.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Katia.

95L off the coast of Africa
A large tropical wave with plenty of intense thunderstorm activity and spin is located about 700 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa. This wave, Invest 95L, is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and is headed west to west-northwest at 15 mph. Recent satellite loops show that 95L has an elongated circulation center; this will need to tighten up into a more circular shape before the storm can become a tropical depression. Water vapor satellite images show that 95L is embedded in a very moist environment. Ocean temperatures are near 28°C, which is 1.5°C above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed for a tropical storm to form. With wind shear predicted to remain low to moderate the next four days, the atmosphere expected to stay moist, and ocean temperatures predicted to gradually warm, I don't see anything that would keep 95L from becoming a tropical depression in 1 - 2 days. NHC is giving 95L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. There is a large amount of model support for development of 95L into a tropical depression, with most of the models predicting it could be a weak tropical storm by the time it reaches the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Friday or Saturday. Residents of the islands should anticipate the possibility of tropical storm conditions arriving as early as Friday. Most of the models predict 95L will follow a path near or slightly north of the Northern Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico, then curve northwestwards, on a trajectory that would likely miss the Bahamas.

New Gulf of Mexico disturbance
A cold front swept into the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas behind Tropical Storm Lee yesterday morning, and has stalled out along a line from Tampa, Florida to Mexico's Bay of Campeche in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Heavy thunderstorms have begun to build along the tail end of this front in the Bay of Campeche, but are still not very concentrated or organized. Most of the computer models develop a tropical depression in the Bay of Campeche late this week, and these same models did very well at anticipating the formation of Tropical Storm Lee in the Gulf of Mexico last week. Given the moderate wind shear, warm waters, and presence of an old cold front to serve as a nucleus for development, a new Gulf of Mexico tropical depression by late this week appears likely. The path such a storm might take would depend strongly on where the center forms. A more northerly formation location near the top of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula would likely result in a northward motion towards the Florida Panhandle. This is the solution of the European Center Model (ECMWF), which takes a weak tropical storm with a central pressure of 1000 mb into the Florida Panhandle on Sunday. A more southerly formation location might lead to the storm getting trapped in a region of weak steering currents, resulting in a slow, erratic motion in the southern Gulf. This is the solution of the latest runs of the GFS, NOGAPS, and UKMET models. NHC is giving this disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday.


Figure 5. Volunteers with Portlight.org disaster relief charity take a break from their Hurricane Irene relief efforts in Pink Hill, NC. From their latest blog post:Please help as you can. And please remember in your thoughts and prayers those in the path of Irene.

Jeff Masters
Crockett Texas Wildfire 2 (Moussifer)
A tree becomes a torch. We could hear the fire's roar.
Crockett Texas Wildfire 2
Bastrop's Burnin (CenTexWeatherGal)
This HUGE fire has already burned over 500 homes and over 30,000 acres. It is 0, yes 0 percent contained and stretches 16 miles long and 6 miles wide. The smoke plume can be seen on dopler radar. This fire is actually to the north east of Bastrop which is east of Austin.
Bastrop's Burnin
Magnolia Fire (shanzi)
Mighty close!
Magnolia Fire
flood (lazzyhazy1)
flood
Categories: Fire Flood Hurricane
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202. Patrap 03:45 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011    
Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery


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203. CaribBoy 03:45 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011    
To me, 95L is a TD...
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204. HCW 03:45 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011    
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205. HCW 03:47 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011    
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206. Patrap 03:47 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011    
On the Subject some are debating..here's a lil advice..


Some people, if they dont wanna know, you cant tell um..

Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244
207. AussieStorm 03:47 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011    
Quoting GiovannaDatoli:

Well, as some of you may be having fun denying the fact that the globe is rapidly warming, others are here to simply discuss science. The rest is simply banter from denialists.

The truth is--and has been documented by NASA and thousands of climate scientists and that the global is warming, and rapidly. And the global extremes that are occurring will only become that of, more extreme--larger intense hurricanes, more severe droughts, and paralyzing blizzards. Big Energy will do their finest to have you believe otherwise with their endless pro-money propaganda that the fossil fuel industry so finely represents. But I, choose to believe science, and also have a genuine interest in protecting the globe from harm others seem to want to impose. Bottom line: It's hot, and only getting hotter.


So a 0.8C increase in 100years is what's called rapid warming?
Member Since: Settembre 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13249
209. Birthmark 03:47 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011    
Quoting jpsb:
It has been brought to my attention that as a result of all the hoopla over our paper published in Remote Sensing recently, that the Editor-in-Chief, Wolfgang Wagner, has resigned. His editorial explaining his decision appears here...


Everything after that was devoid of real content.

Just tryin' to help.
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210. TampaSpin 03:47 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011    
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


Yep.. whats ur opinion on it if it does develop and where it most likely go?







Check out the above loop... and the Steering Flow

Very Dry Air means HIGH PRESSURE...which you can also see on the Steering Layer Graphic also......Conclusion would be for it to move into Mexico or nearly be in a Stall position for a few days......then anything is possible......it should not move much for the next few days and if it does move it should move SW toward Mexico only in the short term.
Member Since: Settembre 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747
211. Drakoen 03:48 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011    
Quoting beell:


I agree. Would certainly appear to be enough weakness trailing the deep-layer trough over the northern gulf. And it would seem more likely for the surface low to travel up the frontal boundary.

GFS 500mb theta-e anomaly (mid-level instability/dry air) starts to ease in 50-60 hrs. Although as dry as it is in the Gulf right now, this may end up being wrong or overly optimistic at least.


Indeed.

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212. Patrap 03:48 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011    
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213. Birthmark 03:49 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011    
Quoting Patrap:
On the Subject some are debating..here's a lil advice..


Some people, if they dont wanna know, you cant tell um..


True dat. (Did I do that right?)

But it's not about convincing the posters of spin and emotion. It's about contesting misinformation.
Member Since: Ottobre 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1404
214. Birthmark 03:49 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011    
Quoting AussieStorm:


So a 0.8C increase in 100years is what's called rapid warming?

Yes.
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215. TampaSpin 03:49 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011    
As ScottSVB always says beyond 2-3 days out the models aren't worth a crap......i don't totally agree with that as beyond 3 days models do give you different conclusions as a possibility.
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218. Patrap 03:50 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011    
...Crazy on a ship of Phools,
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220. AussieStorm 03:51 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011    
Quoting justalurker:
nice spin starting at the BOC.


But look at the dry air coming off Texas.
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221. Patrap 03:52 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011    
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222. Patrap 03:53 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011    
Quoting AussieStorm:

But look at the dry air coming off Texas.


Thats a transient thing and it wont be there but for a day or so,,plus the inflow fetch is on the Se side of the System and thus not affecting it at this time.

Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244
223. AussieStorm 03:54 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011    
Quoting Birthmark:

Yes.

look at it this was, if it wasn't for all the scientific advancements over the last 100-150years, where would the world be, population 2billion.
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224. TampaSpin 03:55 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011    
Quoting Drakoen:


Indeed.



Drak do you think it will move much over the next couple of days.......i just looked at it........not sure.....
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225. Drakoen 03:55 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011    
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226. Patrap 03:56 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011    
Simply Gawgus day here,, Chamber of Commerce Weather fo sho..


Weather at a Glance

Uptown, New Orleans
Elevation
20 ft


Clear
Temperature
71.8 F
Feels Like 76 F
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227. Drakoen 03:56 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011    
Quoting TampaSpin:


Drak do you think it will move much over the next couple of days.......i just looked at it........not sure.....


No

Off to classes. Later all
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229. TampaSpin 03:57 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011    
WOW how things have changed over the past several years........Heck if we had a possible system in the GOM before they would have a floater on it ASAP!
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230. robert88 03:59 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011    
Oh... the stubborn EC trough this season. It reminds me of 2010 all over again. Irene just got lucky. At least the Gulf has nothing to worry about for a little while. I have never seen so much strong dry air in place during the month of September.
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231. yonzabam 04:00 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011    
Quoting jpsb:
Is this the same graph where Siberian temps in Oct were used for nov?

My graph is based on satellite data not suspect ground stations. You can see it at www.drroyspencer.com can't post it here for some reason extreme right hand side gets cut off.




I think I'd trust ground based observations before satellite measurements.

Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletion was detected by a ground based survey team from the UK. The US satellite which measured stratospheric ozone failed to detect the depletion because it was programmed to discard anomalous readings.

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232. TampaSpin 04:00 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011    
Quoting Drakoen:


No

Off to classes. Later all


Thanks thats what i see as well.......LEARN SOMETHING TODAY and thanks for the input.

I agree with Drak.....there is very weak steering! As i said above....in the short term it might possibly move toward Mexico....but after that anything is possible.......BE READY! This might become a little shocker to some!
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233. TampaSpin 04:03 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011    







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234. Birthmark 04:04 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011    
Quoting jpsb:
Is this the same graph where Siberian temps in Oct were used for nov?

My graph is based on satellite data not suspect ground stations. You can see it at www.drroyspencer.com can't post it here for some reason extreme right hand side gets cut off.



The satellites tell the same tale as the thermometers. It's warming according to both --and at about the same rate.
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235. beell 04:04 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011    
Quoting Drakoen:


Indeed.



Indeed, indeed.
Even when the GFS is wrong it's right, lol. Weak steering may be correct also.

12Z GFS 700mb @ 36 hrs.

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236. STLweatherjunkie 04:05 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011    
Quoting SPLbeater:
scientists are stupid. we are not warming. we cant talk to clouds, we CANT. they cant talk to us, nor each other. what the heck is wrong nowadays!?!?

clearly your no scientist, just because it isn't affecting you doesn't mean its not affecting other people. Read Dr. Masters section on Texas, go back to last summer and read his article on the Russian drought and heat wave. I'm not sure how people can just shrug their shoulders to phenomena like these. If drought and extreme heat waves aren't enough, what do you think about the extreme flooding of the Mississippi river earlier this year, and all the extreme flooding in the north east from irene. How about we go back to April and all the tornadoes. How come everybody forgets such extreme phenomena in such short periods of time?

Because the ~1 degree celcius of warming, on a global scale, is a truly unfathomable amount of added energy. "temperature is tied directly to the mean kinetic energy of particles moving relative to the center of mass coordinates for that object" thank you wikipedia. It is the epitome of american thinking at work, if it isn't hurting me now I don't care.
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237. TampaSpin 04:05 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011    
Sounds like we got a lot of DENIER'S on both sides........LOL.....it'n that funny!!
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238. Buhdog 04:06 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011    
Quoting TampaSpin:


Thanks thats what i see as well.......LEARN SOMETHING TODAY and thanks for the input.

I agree with Drak.....there is very weak steering! As i said above....in the short term it might possibly move toward Mexico....but after that anything is possible.......BE READY! This might become a little shocker to some!


or it could pull a quick exit....Lee was supposed to sit forever and continued on. The only to expect is the unexpected. The good news is that the season has leaned more to unexpected "good" news rather than bad.
Storms training off the gulf today in SWFL make me wanna go home and take a nap. STUPID WORK!
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239. nrtiwlnvragn 04:06 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011    
Recon on their way to Katia Google Earth
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240. STLweatherjunkie 04:06 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011    
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241. lickitysplit 04:07 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011    
Quoting AussieStorm:


So a 0.8C increase in 100years is what's called rapid warming?


Uh. Um. Yes.
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242. ncstorm 04:09 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011    
so they going out today..

000
NOUS42 KNHC 051445
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT MON 05 SEPTEMBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-097

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE KATIA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 06/17Z
B. AFXXX 0112A KATIA
C. 06/1415Z
D. 27.5N 66.5W
E. 06/1615Z-06/1830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL 07/17Z FIX
3. REMARK: NOAA G-IV RESEARCH MISSIONS
FOR HURRICANE KATIA TAKING OFF 06/11Z AND 07/11Z.
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243. ncstorm 04:09 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011    
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Recon on their way to Katia Google Earth


about time..
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244. AllBoardedUp 04:12 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011    
tsovinar, post#217, thanks for the input. I do realize the cost involved, and I know it is never as simple as it seems, nor is the information that is given to the public is as it seems (from both sides of the debate). I appreciate an honest and informative point of view.
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245. TampaSpin 04:12 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011    
Quoting Buhdog:


or it could pull a quick exit....Lee was supposed to sit forever and continued on. The only to expect is the unexpected. The good news is that the season has leaned more to unexpected "good" news rather than bad.
Storms training off the gulf today in SWFL make me wanna go home and take a nap. STUPID WORK!


Lets hope the unexpected does not occur. Gotta run out for a while. Everyone be nice to each and stop being such Denier's on both sides of GW. I have tried to be more subjective as i have been a very much Denier of ManMade GW. I have tried to read much more about GW. So, try to be a little more open on both sides of the Argument as you might flop the other way. Didn't say i flopped tho......LOL
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246. beell 04:15 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011    
SPC at it again for the second day in a row. They are not afraid of the "H" word.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 AM CDT TUE SEP 06 2011

...THE UPR LOW ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT WAS HYBRID T.D. LEE
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248. Melagoo 04:17 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011    
is 95L going the same way as the two previous storms Irene and Katia?
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250. AussieStorm 04:19 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011    
Quoting Birthmark:

I have no idea. Nor can I discern why that might be relevant. Enlighten me. :)

would we have all the great meteorological tools we have today if it wasn't for scientific advancements like satellites and Doppler radars. Look at Hurricane Katrina, how many people died, 1200, imagine if we didn't know Katrina was coming, what would the total deaths be?

How do the Satellites we all rely on get into space, rocket propulsion, how was that developed, with the use of RP-1 (alternately, Rocket Propellant-1 or Refined Petroleum-1) + Liquid oxygen. If we had no satellites no HH planes, no super computers to run models on, the only way any of us know that there was a hurricane approaching would be to late.

I am all for greening the planet using reusable, Geo-thermal, wind, water and Solar power, but I am thankful of the scientific development that has been done, so we don't have 10000's of deaths from a single hurricane.

If you weren't aware, my government here has taken a drastic step of putting a carbon tax on almost everything, which will start July 2012, $100billion of my countries hard earned money will go to the UN and they will hand it out to 3rd world countries that are run by dictators that would rather fight with there neighbouring countries that help there own people to live. What will happen to the very strong economy of my country when all the manufacturing closes and moves to China or India?
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251. yonzabam 04:20 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011    
Quoting Melagoo:
is 95L going the same way as the two previous storms Irene and Katia?


Probably.
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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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