Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting nofailsafe:


NOGAPS must be the court jester then.

LOL! I think you made might my night.

Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah really! I got frustrated, but we ended up getting it, and then some! My power was knocked out twice this morning as well as cable service almost all day, we had gusts up to 60 mph here with debris blown around from trees onto roads and some power line damage. It was just like tropical cyclone rain bands even though Lee had long since merged. The convection certainly felt way more tropical than frontal!

BTW, its starting to thunder loud here now, lots of lighting to the south, headed this way.

Man you guys got it bad! I know it was raining hard here this morning with a few flashes and rumbles of thunder, and the winds were noticeably higher, and then it slowed up in the afternoon, in fact the sun came out for a time. Good! I'm going to see If I can sleep through it. :P

Quoting 69Viking:


Do you know how to report emails such as this? I think most people just want it to stop, some of the emails are very degrading and this user needs to be banned ASAP.

if its real bad and there have been some i copy it and paste it into an email to admin normally trhen i minus report the sender then ignore and ban from my blog page after that but they always come back so you have to do it over and over every single time there is a new screen name

i beleive its disguntled bloggers from past that have been perm banned and just have a personal issue with wunder ground and not any one single indiviual we are just used as targets if you will

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Gro speaks highly of you Idaho.

My first impulse is to say " I'm at my most impressive when I'm 2600 miles away"

But what I really want to say is "Grothar, get back here and gloat about your excellant forecast on your blog!"

Quoting FrankZapper:
We got to stick together on this Taz. I think Jason or JFV or one of their preverted friends are all involved in a plot. You or me could be next. We got to stop these preverts now.

yuper



well good night evere one

Thanks Keeper and Taz, will follow your recommendations and then I'm out of here, talk at you in the morning when I check up on 96L and the others!

Quoting nofailsafe:


NOGAPS must be the court jester then.

Hahaha...or maybe a pawn.

Quoting 69Viking:
Thanks Keeper and Taz, will follow your recommendations and then I'm out of here, talk at you in the morning when I check up on 96L and the others!

welcome

Quoting Tazmanian:




all right but if you guys get ban for posting personal WU e mail on the main blog and when we have storms a round


dont say i did not tell you so

They won't get banned. They're trying to get those who sent those e-mail's banned.

Quoting Tazmanian:




can you stop posting WU e mails on here you end up geting banned if you keep posting it post WU e mail on the main blog is a big big no no

nothing like padding the post numbers...Taz, its like a troll, the less attention brought to it the faster it will go away.

Quoting caneswatch:


They won't get banned. They're trying to get those who sent those e-mail's banned.

i under stan



ok well am done with this moveing on too weather



good night all

Quoting hunkerdown:
nothing like padding the post numbers...Taz, its like a troll, the less attention brought to it the faster it will go away.

so ture



well you have a good night am off

have a good a safe night all and all

Off topic but important.
Richard Trumka, president of AFL-CIO, today on Piers Morgan Show said President Obama is to announce MAJOR jobs program to put union workers back to work using billions of Federal $ to rebuild America's infrastructure in largest program since FDR's days

i be thinks 95l is be going to da west and so should impacts da islands fosho

Is there a place on this website to talk about GW without getting banned?

Quoting Hellsniper223:
Is there a place on this website to talk about GW without getting banned?

Under Blogs at the top right of this page, the fourth one down is "Climate Change." Thanks for asking.

Quoting Hellsniper223:
Is there a place on this website to talk about GW without getting banned?

On any day Dr M talks about it you can talk about it as much as you want. This is in the blog's rules.

Quoting KingofNewOrleans:


The new TAL (Teharan Air Layer)

I wonder if there's a history of Tropical Storms being destroyed by that in the 30s and 50s when Texas had other major droughts.

The Dust Bowl - What Caused the Dust Bowl in the US Midwest in the 1930's?
One of the worst climatic events in the history of the United States was the "Dust Bowl" drought which devastated the United States central states region known as the Great Plains. The Dust Bowl all but dried up an already depressed American economy in the 1930's creating millions of dollars in damages. With modern technology, NASA now believes the Jet Stream was partly responsible for this drought.

Ocean Temperatures in the 1930's Were Unstable

Scientists at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center recently used a computer model and satellite data to examine climate over the past century. In the study, cooler than normal tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures and warmer than normal tropical Atlantic Ocean temperatures created ideal drought conditions due to the unstable sea surface temperatures. The result was dry air and high temperatures in the Midwest from about 1931 to 1939.

The Normal Supply of Moist Air From the Gulf of Mexico Was Reduced.

Changes in sea surface temperatures create shifts in weather patterns. One way is by changing the patterns in the jet stream. In the 1930's, the jet stream was weakened causing the normally moisture rich air from the Gulf of Mexico to become drier. Low level winds further reduced the normal supply of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and reduced rainfall throughout the US Midwest.

The Jet Stream Changed Course.

The jet stream normally flows west over the Gulf of Mexico and turns northward pulling up moisture and dumping rain onto the Great Plains. As the jet stream weakened and changed course, it traveled farther south than normal starving the Midwest of precious rain.

Sept. 10, the height of the season is almost here.

I just can't stand all the GOM moisture being sandblasted away by the tx high, still.

Quoting HurricaneNewb:
i be thinks 95l is be going to da west and so should impacts da islands fosho

its TD 14 not 95L

Quoting redwagon:


Sept. 10, the height of the season is almost here.

I just can't stand all the GOM moisture being sandblasted away by the tx high, still.

Looks like the same condition in '31-'39...

This actually looks like a struggling depression and the ADT is going nuts. O.o WTH!



----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 SEP 2011 Time : 044500 UTC
Lat : 11:43:06 N Lon : 38:37:17 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 /1005.7mb/ 45.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.2 3.4

Center Temp : -58.5C Cloud Region Temp : -49.8C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.04^ TO DG)

I hate to bother you guys tonight But I am trying to find out which way this fire is moving & I dont know where to look. We have family close by! They are Almost straight E. may a bit S of the fire with no evacuation Yet.

STEINER RANCH, Travis County. 150 acres, no containment. The fire started just north of the Steiner Ranch subdivision. More than 1,000 homes are under mandatory evacuation in Steiner Ranch. At least 25 homes are reported lost.

This is located by Lake Travis, a little north E of austin. Thanks

getting hammered hard here, a lot worse than it looks on radar, gusts to 49 mph here, non-stop lighting right on top of me and really intense rain rates.

Quoting totalamature:
I hate to bother you guys tonight But I am trying to find out which way this fire is moving & I dont know where to look. We have family close by! They are Almost straight E. may a bit S of the fire with no evacuation Yet.

STEINER RANCH, Travis County. 150 acres, no containment. The fire started just north of the Steiner Ranch subdivision. More than 1,000 homes are under mandatory evacuation in Steiner Ranch. At least 25 homes are reported lost.

This is located by Lake Travis, a little north E of austin. Thanks

Everybody moved back into Steiner today who wanted to.
Power's back up, no visible fires but embers here and there sending up small plumes and the area still smells of fire and smoke, but it is re-inhabited.

Quoting totalamature:
I hate to bother you guys tonight But I am trying to find out which way this fire is moving & I dont know where to look. We have family close by! They are Almost straight E. may a bit S of the fire with no evacuation Yet.

STEINER RANCH, Travis County. 150 acres, no containment. The fire started just north of the Steiner Ranch subdivision. More than 1,000 homes are under mandatory evacuation in Steiner Ranch. At least 25 homes are reported lost.

This is located by Lake Travis, a little north E of austin. Thanks

The only link I have is this one. Go down to the Fire Activity line. The map works with Google Earth . I don't know how close to real time it is.

Quoting Tazmanian:




its TD 14 not 95L

you right there

to much southern comfort makes the storm come right at you

1966 to 2009 N Atlantic averages:
Named Storms: 11.3
Hurricanes: 6.2
Cat 3: 2.3

Year to date for 2011:
Named: 11
Hurricanes: 2
Cat 3: 2

i meant td14 has a rendevos with fl or the se coast ,not 96l ,prayn it goes towards tx with lots of steady soaking non flooding rains

Quoting Bielle:


The only link I have is this one. Go down to the Fire Activity line. The map works with Google Earth . I don't know how close to real time it is.

Thank you for the info. looks like I have to install google earth to see it. So I am still waiting. I just wondered if there was a way to tell which way & how hard the wind is blowing in that area. Might not have to be fire info. Just a weather page you all might know about. Thanks again

Looks like TD14 is dying

if your still on jed looks like quite a bit of energy moving in off the gulf in our area,it alomost looks like a mid level trough or low forming out there,im thinking some severe wx possible ,theirs quite a bit of eveacuation in the ul from the ul trough in the north gom

anyone see the cmc big shift for td14

Quoting redwagon:


Everybody moved back into Steiner today who wanted to.
Power's back up, no visible fires but embers here and there sending up small plumes and the area still smells of fire and smoke, but it is re-inhabited.

Thanks so much! I have looked & Looked for the most recent info. Apperently not looking in the right places. What I saw that said 0 contained was the most recent I could find. I really appreciate your taking time to check that!.

Quoting 7544:
anyone see the cmc big shift for td14

yeap

The Tampa Bay Area is getting hammered. What a storm!

Quoting totalamature:

Thanks so much! I have looked & Looked for the most recent info. Apperently not looking in the right places. What I saw that said 0 contained was the most recent I could find. I really appreciate your taking time to check that!.

Google for the county or state emergency management web site, they should have the most current useful information. Also search for any news sites covering the area.

Td 14 looking about the same. Watching the models carefully to see where we might be in 5 days.

96l not doing much. Sigh, no rain for Texas I'm afraid
:(

Quoting 7544:
anyone see the cmc big shift for td14

Yup...I call it the NMALIDL Model.......(Never-Met-A-Low-It-Didn't-Like) lol

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
TROPICAL STORM KULAP (T1114)
15:00 PM JST September 7 2011
===============================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Kulap (1000 hPa) located at 21.5N 135.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
==================
120 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

24 HRS: 23.3N 135.2E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 24.8N 134.4E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 26.2N 133.0E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

The almighty king EURO says TD 14 is out to sea. This is looking more and more like 2010....zzzzz

Quoting JGreco:


Forgot to add that there is "a tiny bit of truth about the basic idea of climate control....

Of course. Cloud seeding, for example, can be verified.

I have become interested by the comments about the dust bowl droughts of the 1930s and one thing that springs to mind is that if people find a similarity in the present drought conditions and the dust bowl years, then the next step surely must be to compare present atmospheric conditions to those recorded at that time.
Although there is much more information available today in the weather patterns there must have been quite a lot then as well.
For those who have access to the records, my question would be, what were the storm patterns in those years? Were hurricanes generally missing the GOM area then as they are now and what was the pattern in other areas compared to now. If there are a lot of similarities from then to the present time than you may have a repeat of that cycle.
Just a thought based on what I have been reading here from contributors.

25 StormHype "Why would anyone ever use straight line projection for a forecast? Katia is not a bowling ball. This post is hype/noise IMO."
32 AussieStorm "This may well be interesting to some people but you're just using the XTRP model as guidance. As Dr Masters has already stated, the low associated with ex-Lee will turn Katia before it reaches CONUS."

Thanks, for the excuse to explain that my straightline projections are NOT forecasts.

Quoting myself, with 3[now relevant]edits:
Egalitarianism is the nice thing about drawing a straight line through a TropicalCyclone's last two center positions: it spreads the threat all over the place. Since Bonnie[2010] entered Florida, the straightline has led to southwestGeorgia, NewOrleans, PortArthur, Matamoros,Mexico, [then] Houston.

The probability that a TC will squiggle around in its travels closely approximates certainty, so the chances of a long-term straightline-projected landfall being accurate is extremely low. A straightline projection is reliable only when the "fore"cast is made less than [6]hours before landfall... the timing of which we won't know until after landfall.

Mostly it's posted cuz I do it anyways to compare the results with what the NHC reports as a TC's current travel speed&direction, with the XTRP*projection, and with the hurricane warning cones; and thought others might wanna take a look.

Interestingly while it is nearly useless for forecasting purposes, it's fairly reliable for predicting which way the NHC will shift its cones and XTRPs; not of the amount, but rather of the general direction.

* The eXTRaPolation model is not the same as projecting a straight line through the last two reported center positions. XTRP is derived by averaging the TC's various headings&speeds over the previous 12hours, then projecting that average in a straight line from the TC's last reported center.

THANKS again, Skyepony, for telling me that XTRP was averaged over 12hours rather than "6to12hours", and for correcting my misspelt "XTRAP" (no wonder I couldn't google it up)

Since then, I've learned to not track the NHCwebsite's storm positions (except for personal amusement... which I occasionally share). Using the NHCwebsite's coordinates leads to overly squirrelly straightline projections:
The NHC.Advisories are time-sensitive: they must be posted before the nominal reporting-hour... and are (up to 15minutes before the deadline) with extremely rare exceptions. ie The NHCwebsite gives out the current working figures.
The ATCFwebsite is accuracy-sensitive: the (NHC-corrected)ATCF-info is the official report-of-record, and is always released after the nominal reporting-hour (usually 20to50minutes after the non"deadline", occasionally more than an hour after). As such, the "best"info at any given nominal hour is subject to revision in future reports for the lifetime of the storm (then once again during the post-season review).

Given that my straightline projections are neither forecasts nor XTRPs...
...time to discuss their utility.

1) When in eg Mobile,Alabama and describing the travel-direction of a car, people would commonly use "On the I-10 heading toward Tallahassee" or "On the I-10 heading toward NewOrleans" rather than "Heading east on the I-10" or "Heading west on the I-10".
Doesn't mean that the car will pass through or end up in Tallahassees or NewOrleans: there are LOTS of turn-offs they can take. Similarly TropicalCyclones can be expected to take a turn off of their most recent path, without ever passing near a straightline-projection's endpoint.
But using those city names gives a direction. And people living in a given area have a better feel for places than for compass points.
In passing through some cities, an otherwise nearly-straight eg east-west freeway makes an S-curve. In those places, giving an "east"/"west"/"north"/"south" can be downright misleading.
So giving a place as a direction often makes more sense than giving a compass point.

2) Other than astronomers, surveyors, pilots, navigators, sailors, and a small minority of hikers, people don't use compass degrees often enough to get a feel for what those numbers mean.
3) In time-sensitive situations, the "o'clock" is used as a shortcut to give directions even by pilots, navigators, and sailors... especially when trying to point out an object to those without expertise in compass use.
People are constantly exposed to looking at clocks and watches with "hands". Even in this digital era, the school/office/work clocks tend to be numbered and "hand"ed. Those who still wear watches almost always pick "hand"ed ones.
So it's nearly reflexive to look in the direction of 1o'clock, 10o'clock, etc... with 12o'clock meaning forward (or upward, depending on what is being pointed out)

The map area is being used as a "clockface" with cities and islands marking the o'clock numbers. Even people who don't know what '305.0degrees(NW)' means have a decent feel for where MyrtleBeach,NorthCarolina is in relation to themselves or to their loved ones, especially when looking at a map.

Similarly, when people ask an expected visitor "How far away are you?" they are seldom asking for the separation distance in terms of miles/kilometres, but rather for separation distance in terms of "How many hours until you arrive?"
Whether traveling by foot, horse, ship, train, car, or jet, whether to the nearest supermarket or exotic resort destination, distances are commonly described in terms of the amount of travel-time rather than in terms of the miles/kilometres of separation.

I'm catering to those places-as-headings and times-as-distances preferences for ease-of-understanding&remembering the headings&distances, NOT for making a forecast... of any sort whatsoever.

Quoting robert88:
The almighty king EURO says TD 14 is out to sea. This is looking more and more like 2010....zzzzz

After hitting PR and DR so is not a 2010 season -_-

Good morning, TD 14 is looking healthy today.



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