Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Texas fires will diminish today; Lee's rains set all-time records

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 01:27 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011

+32

East Texas' dangerous fires continued to rage out of control yesterday, thanks to gusty north winds associated with the passage of a cold front and the remnant circulation of Tropical Storm Lee. Since Saturday, wildfires have torched over 500 homes in East Texas and killed two people. At Austin Bergstrom Airport, sustained winds of 20 - 25 mph, gusting to 30 - 35 mph blew much of the day yesterday. Tropical Storm Lee's remnants didn't bring any clouds or moisture to Austin yesterday, and the temperature climbed to 91°, with a humidity of just 11%. With the region enduring it's driest 1-year drought on record, yesterday's heat, dryness, and winds resulted in critical fire conditions. The forecast today for Austin is much better--winds will be only 5 - 10 mph, which should give firefighters the upper hand in many of the blazes, despite low humidities that will be in the 15 - 25% range. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is not predicting that critical fire weather conditions will return during the remainder of the week. You can monitor today's fire activity by using our wundermap for Austin with the fire layer turned on.

Figure 1. True-color image taken by NASA's Aqua satellite of the the fires burning near Austin, Texas on September 5, 2011. Image credit: NASA.

Video 1. Video shot by a motorist on Highway 21 near Austin, Texas of the smoke from the fires that raced through Bastrop County on September 4, 2011.The highway closes and the motorist is forced to turn around.

Texas' unprecedented heat
As I reported in yesterday's post, there has never been a Texas summer hotter than the summer of 2011. The summer of 2011 now holds every major heat record for the city of Austin, including most 100° days (67 so far), hottest month in recorded history (August, breaking the previous record by a remarkable 2.1°), hottest summer (by 1.1°), and hottest day in history (112°F, tied with Sep, 5, 2000.) As wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt documents in his latest blog post, the situation is similar across the rest of the state. Seventeen major cities in Texas recorded their hottest summer on record in 2011. Most of these stations had records extending back more than 100 years, and several of the records were smashed by an amazing 3.4°F--at Lubbock and at Wichita Falls. Neighboring states also experienced unprecedented heat, with Oklahoma recording America's hottest month by any state in recorded history during July, and Shreveport, Louisiana breaking its record for hottest month by 3°F in August. Mr. Burt commented to me: " I do not believe I have ever seen a site with a long period of record, like Shreveport, where records go back to 1874, break its warmest single month on record by an astonishing 3°. This is unheard of. Usually when a site breaks its single month temperature record, we are talking about tenths of a degree, rarely a whole degree, let alone 3 degrees! Hard to believe, frankly." Texas has also had its worst fire season on record, with over 3.5 million acres burned this year, and it's driest 1-year period in recorded history.

Figure 2. Observed soil moisture for Sunday Sep 4, 2011. Soil moisture is expressed in percent, with 50% being a historically average soil moisture level. Very dry soils, with moistures in the driest 1% - 30% in history (red and orange colors), were present over much of the south, where Lee dropped its heaviest rains. These dry soils have limited flooding damage. Image credit: N OAA Climate Prediction Center.

Heavy rains from Lee create significant flooding
Tropical Storm Lee is no more, but its remnants are marching slowly northeastwards along a stalled cold front, bringing torrential rains. Jackson, Mississippi received 11.68" in a 24 hour period yesterday, which is that city's heaviest 24-hour rainfall on record, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt. Their previous record was 8.54", set April 11 -12, 1979. Fortunately, Jackson was in severe drought, and the dry soils were able to absorb a significant amount of rain before the local rivers began flooding. The Pearl River at Jackson rose above flood stage this morning, and is expected to crest at moderate flood stage late this week. Chattanooga, Tennessee also set its record for the wettest 24-hour period in its history, with 9.85" falling yesterday. The previous record was 7.61", set on March 30, 1886. Again, the dry soils that were present before the event started will help keep river flooding in the minor to moderate range on area rivers. Soils are at near-average moisture levels in Central Pennsylvania, where Lee's remnants are expected to drop over seven inches of rain over the next two days. These rains should cause moderate and possibly major flooding in Pennsylvania. Also of concern is the potential for tornadoes today. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has logged 25 tornado reports over the past three days from Lee, including three near Atlanta, Georgia yesterday. More tornadoes are likely today over North Carolina, Southern Virginia, and Northern South Carolina, where SPC is predicting a "Slight Risk" of severe weather.

Lee's heaviest rain amounts, by state, as of 4 am CDT today:

Holden, LA: 15.43"
Florence, MS: 13.45"
Tillman's Corner, AL: 11.74"
Milton, FL: 10.03"
Chattanooga, TN: 9.85"
Rome, GA: 5.70"
Roanoake, VA: 4.30"
Bluefield, WV: 3.14"
Bridge City, TX: 3.12"
Flatwoods, KY: 3.67"

Figure 3. Predicted rainfall for the 2-day period 8am EDT Tuesday - 8 am EDT Thursday, Sep 8, 2011. Lee's remnants are expected to bring a large swath of 7+ inches of rain into Central Pennsylvania. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Hurricane Katia
Hurricane Katia strengthened this morning into the Atlantic's first Category 4 hurricane of the year, but has slipped slightly in intensity due to an eyewall replacement cycle, and is now a strong Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. Latest satellite loops show that the eye has now disappeared, and the hurricane is having trouble maintaining its eyewall in the face of moderate wind shear of 10 - 15 knots on its northwest side. Continued weakening to a Category 2 storm is a possibility, though Katia will probably re-strengthen later today or on Wednesday once it manages to build a new eyewall.

The computer models continue to agree that a low pressure system over the Eastern U.S. associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee will turn Katia to the north well before the storm reaches the U.S. As the storm moves northwards past North Carolina, Katia will get caught up in west-to-east moving winds associated with the jet stream, and taken northeastwards out to sea. No land areas are in Katia's cone of uncertainty, and Katia's outer rainbands should remain just offshore from North Carolina, New England, and the Canadian Maritime provinces at the point of closest approach. The main impact of Katia will be high surf leading to beach erosion and dangerous rip currents. Long period swells from Katia have arrived at the coast, and the entire U.S. East Coast will receive an extended multi-day period of high surf. The East Coast is lucky that Tropical Storm Lee came along, since Lee helped to create the steering pattern that will keep Katia from hitting the U.S.

Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Katia.

95L off the coast of Africa
A large tropical wave with plenty of intense thunderstorm activity and spin is located about 700 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa. This wave, Invest 95L, is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and is headed west to west-northwest at 15 mph. Recent satellite loops show that 95L has an elongated circulation center; this will need to tighten up into a more circular shape before the storm can become a tropical depression. Water vapor satellite images show that 95L is embedded in a very moist environment. Ocean temperatures are near 28°C, which is 1.5°C above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed for a tropical storm to form. With wind shear predicted to remain low to moderate the next four days, the atmosphere expected to stay moist, and ocean temperatures predicted to gradually warm, I don't see anything that would keep 95L from becoming a tropical depression in 1 - 2 days. NHC is giving 95L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. There is a large amount of model support for development of 95L into a tropical depression, with most of the models predicting it could be a weak tropical storm by the time it reaches the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Friday or Saturday. Residents of the islands should anticipate the possibility of tropical storm conditions arriving as early as Friday. Most of the models predict 95L will follow a path near or slightly north of the Northern Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico, then curve northwestwards, on a trajectory that would likely miss the Bahamas.

New Gulf of Mexico disturbance
A cold front swept into the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas behind Tropical Storm Lee yesterday morning, and has stalled out along a line from Tampa, Florida to Mexico's Bay of Campeche in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Heavy thunderstorms have begun to build along the tail end of this front in the Bay of Campeche, but are still not very concentrated or organized. Most of the computer models develop a tropical depression in the Bay of Campeche late this week, and these same models did very well at anticipating the formation of Tropical Storm Lee in the Gulf of Mexico last week. Given the moderate wind shear, warm waters, and presence of an old cold front to serve as a nucleus for development, a new Gulf of Mexico tropical depression by late this week appears likely. The path such a storm might take would depend strongly on where the center forms. A more northerly formation location near the top of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula would likely result in a northward motion towards the Florida Panhandle. This is the solution of the European Center Model (ECMWF), which takes a weak tropical storm with a central pressure of 1000 mb into the Florida Panhandle on Sunday. A more southerly formation location might lead to the storm getting trapped in a region of weak steering currents, resulting in a slow, erratic motion in the southern Gulf. This is the solution of the latest runs of the GFS, NOGAPS, and UKMET models. NHC is giving this disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday.

Figure 5. Volunteers with Portlight.org disaster relief charity take a break from their Hurricane Irene relief efforts in Pink Hill, NC. From their latest blog post:Please help as you can. And please remember in your thoughts and prayers those in the path of Irene.

Jeff Masters

Crockett Texas Wildfire 2 (Moussifer)

A tree becomes a torch. We could hear the fire's roar.

Bastrop's Burnin (CenTexWeatherGal)

This HUGE fire has already burned over 500 homes and over 30,000 acres. It is 0, yes 0 percent contained and stretches 16 miles long and 6 miles wide. The smoke plume can be seen on dopler radar. This fire is actually to the north east of Bastrop which is east of Austin.

Magnolia Fire (shanzi)

Mighty close!

flood (lazzyhazy1)

Categories: Fire Flood Hurricane

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1601. WeatherNerdPR 01:42 AM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
Quoting thesituation: I like tacos +1 for randomness. lol Member Since: Luglio 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5464

1602. mcluvincane 01:42 AM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl: Which direction is Maria moving when it is at this position? NW? wnw Member Since: Giugno 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1315

1603. prweatherwatcher 01:42 AM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
Quoting WeatherNerdPR: You were so lucky. This was when Irene's open SW eyewall passed by. Winds were near 40mph. Quoting WeatherNerdPR: You were so lucky. This was when Irene's open SW eyewall passed by. Winds were near 40mph. Quoting WeatherNerdPR: You were so lucky. This was when Irene's open SW eyewall passed by. Winds were near 40mph. I think that TD 14 is a bigger thread than Irene was for us...has more time to imtensified and conditions seem to be better with no dry air and low to moderate sheae. Well see what happends like always at this time is watch anx wait. Member Since: Luglio 29, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 78

1604. bluenosedave 01:43 AM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
Quoting CosmicEvents: No bluenose I'm not. Ive never even been there. I'm in Florida. I have been in Yarmouth in the past though on vacation. Beautiful spot. Well, I thought you were in FL, so it kinda made me wonder. Anyway, glad to hear you're concerned about our little piece of paradise, and hope to visit yours someday... in mid-winter. ;-) Member Since: Agosto 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 321

1606. JLPR2 01:44 AM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
Quoting WeatherNerdPR: Experimental HWRF shows a string of storms...better pray it doesn't happen. Then again, it's the HWRF. If that were to happen I would end up finishing my first semester of my third year in May. LOL! Member Since: Settembre 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

1607. GeoffreyWPB 01:44 AM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
No doubt we will have Maria tomorrow... Member Since: Settembre 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9119

1608. AussieStorm 01:44 AM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
added another person to my ignore list after a very insensitive comment. Cyclone Yasi Photo Gallery and Video Gallery. Member Since: Settembre 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13321

1609. violet312s 01:44 AM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
Ugh. Got a training line right over Durham, NC. 3 tornado warnings for us today. 3" and counting. Yes, we needed the rain, but perhaps not this much. Would be more than happy to share it with TX. Oh and what Press said on the good people in here. Member Since: Giugno 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 779

1610. BDADUDE 01:45 AM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
Quoting prweatherwatcher: I think that TD 14 is a bigger thread than Irene was for us...has more time to imtensified and conditions seem to be better with no dry air and low to moderate sheae. Well see what happends like always at this time is watch anx wait. Your ok. Its going to do a Katia dude. Member Since: Settembre 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 602

1611. JLPR2 01:45 AM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
Quoting TuMama: I think it was against me for being Hispanic. But don't get offended. Tacos rule! :) Member Since: Settembre 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

1612. TX2FL 01:45 AM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
Quoting TuMama: Oh my husband likes feets to. Yeah but this guy definitely was not my husband. Member Since: Luglio 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 117

1614. WeatherNerdPR 01:45 AM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
Quoting prweatherwatcher: I think that TD 14 is a bigger thread than Irene was for us...has more time to imtensified and conditions seem to be better with no dry air and low to moderate sheae. Well see what happends like always at this time is watch anx wait. It's apparently still a TD, which is horrible news for us because the weaker she is, the more west she goes. Member Since: Luglio 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5464

1616. HurricaneKyle 01:46 AM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy: Okay, its not the wishcasting that is getting out of hand it is the statements that we're all wishcasters that provide absolutely nothing to the blog. I have to rant here for a second, because we're all forgetting what Grothar asked of us, he's not doing so well the last few days and may the Lord bless him to a speedy and healthy recovery. What is really making me mad is all the comments that say 'we're all wishcasters' by just making a statement. You think we're wischasters and downcasters? Then you better clear out now, because we're not going to change. People say, okay, stupid things sometimes about a storm. HALF THE TIME, they are trolls with little real meteorological knowledge. You don't see Levi, or hurricane23, or MiamiHurricanes (better known as the MiamiTropicalWaves by now LOL), saying bogus things like 'its going to hit land' do you?? Its getting out of hand how the few words of the ignorant trolls on here magically represent the blog WHETHER they are WISHCASTING, FISCHASTING, NEWSCASTING, whatever you want it to be. Last I check, this was a blog, NOT a source of serious info but a place where OPINIONS are placed into. The National Hurricane Center places FACTS, they are incharge. We are not. We sure disagree with them, sometimes don't even make sense of them in the case of Jose BUT anyone who takes this blog seriously enough to post things that we're full of wishcasters and downcasters needs to get a grip because I'm getting tired of seeing it. I don't mean to bash any recent posts, but its really getting out of hand on here and frankly I am quite tired of it. Like I said, if you really think that's what we're all about then please clear out and come back later with an attitude check, because its getting on my nerves. That's not directed to anyone on here right now, but its just how I do not get why people are acting like this. Sorry, I had to rant. But please, just stop it and focus on weather. You know, the thing that exists out there right now that does whatever it wants to regardless of our opinions. Feel free to rage at me if you disagree. +1000!!!!! Member Since: Agosto 10, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 672

1618. TX2FL 01:46 AM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
Quoting TuMama: I think it was against me for being Hispanic. I think it was too, q estupido..de Mier...coles... Member Since: Luglio 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 117

1619. JLPR2 01:46 AM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
Quoting BDADUDE: Your ok. Its going to do a Katia* dude.* You don't know that, in meteorology the words: should, could and if should be used. Unless you have a crystal ball. Member Since: Settembre 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

1620. violet312s 01:46 AM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
Quoting TuMama: I think it was against me for being Hispanic. Just ignore the idiots. Not worth the stress to worry about their comments. Member Since: Giugno 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 779

1622. WeatherNerdPR 01:46 AM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
Quoting TuMama: I think it was against me for being Hispanic. Don't take it the wrong way, tacos are cool :D Member Since: Luglio 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5464

1623. spathy 01:46 AM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
Quoting TuMama: I think it was against me for being Hispanic. I think you need to be a little less sensitive. The comment was obviously in ref to possible gastronomic results from eating too much spicy food. Member Since: Giugno 8, 2008 Posts: 65 Comments: 10475

1624. Dakster 01:47 AM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
Quoting TuMama: Oh my husband likes feets to. Would you be mad if he was trying to get to another Woman's feet? Member Since: Marzo 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4932

1625. AussieStorm 01:47 AM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
Quoting WeatherNerdPR: +1 for randomness. lol I thought it was very insensitive. Member Since: Settembre 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13321

1626. mcluvincane 01:47 AM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
Quoting BDADUDE: Your ok. Its going to do a Katia dude. you sure? Link Member Since: Giugno 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1315

1627. QueensEddie 01:48 AM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
Is there any Fujiwhara effect (attraction) between Lee and Katia at this time? They seem to be about as close as they are going to get baring any change in course. According to Wikipedia, the effect starts to happen when they are 900 miles apart and it looks to me like they are around 1,000 miles apart right now so probably not. I wonder if the models take this effect into account at all. I used to have a hurricane background on my computer at work until I guy who grew up somewhere in the islands took me to task for it. So I took off my background but still look forward to hurricanes coming my way (NYC) although it never seems to happen. Member Since: Agosto 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1

1628. RMM34667 01:48 AM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
Quoting wxgeek723: Ugh. This blog is rooting for TD 14/soon to be Maria to hit land. It's sickening and quite frankly getting annoying. You know I used to be on your side. I didn't consciously wish destruction on people but I found it exciting. I enjoyed watching it. I kind of wanted to see something interesting unfold. Like during Hurricane Ike, I was really banking on him regaining major hurricane status before barreling into Texas. I was an enthusisiast. Deep down inside I practically enjoyed it, and I know most of you people are the same. The way you type, the hype you produce, the possibilities (or just fantasies) that you mention. I came into this hurricane season with a slightly toned down attitude. As August progressed I expressed some thoughts that maybe this hurricane season won't be so bad, that the blog won't get what it craves. The NHC was just naming every little blob on the map. I really don't think it needed to take us 9 freakin' names to get a hurricane. Anyway as you all know the East Coast was rattled a bit on August 23, a few days before Irene's approach. It threw me into a state of anxiety, which was accelerated much further as the media distorted Irene. While I was aware it was just sensationalism, it really scared me. Plus I would lurk on here and see all the fearmongering going on, which didn't help. I felt the true fear that someone feels when a hurricane is bearing down on their area. It's a horrible feeling and throws a lot of people into chaos. I'll say you people on the Gulf Coast are VERY brave to risk this every year, or maybe just stubborn. Call me what you like but I just can't handle it. Now I go on the WU blog and here I see you people HOPING Maria (it's obviously going to receive that name soon) will hit the East Coast, don't even deny it. This is pretty obvious considering anyone who dares mention recurvature must get shot down and completely defeated. Keep in mind I realize some are trolls and that it's also VERY possible for AL14 to strike the East Coast. It may be subconsciously but I know you people crave this. It gives you a rush. Believe me I know. However when the shoe was on the other foot I began to realize how wrong it was to feel this way. I've learned that I have to approach this like a scientist with the least possible bias, and that a storm will go where it goes. You can't wish it somewhere just because you'd be excited to see another hurricane make landfall on the East Coast and the resulting media hype and residential stress. It's just not right. I realize some people are level-headed and that it's difficult not to feel this way when you're so interested in tracking hurricanes and their aftermath, it's just something I felt needed to be pointed out. Since the AL14 model runs are creeping me out, I think I'll be withdrawing from the blog for a while, like I did during Irene. Perhaps I'll return to lurking in November when the bloodthirst has died off a bit, or at least laid to rest until the 2012 season, when the blog will resume its sadistic ways. Guess I read a different blog. I see people sharing information. I see people wanting others to "prepare for the worst but hope for the best". I saw the most amazing thing happen after a storm (I think it was IKE, but I'm not really sure anymore). I saw one person (and most know who that amazing person was) post a comment about getting stuff together to go help. I saw many others who wanted to help that effort. And I saw a little fund raiser explode. I see people getting excited over the wonder of watching a storm go from a blob, to a spin and emerge as a powerful force of nature. So I don't know what blog you are reading. But it's not the same as me. Member Since: Settembre 7, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 910

1629. HurrMichaelOrl 01:48 AM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
Quoting mcluvincane: wnw Ahhh, I see, thank you. I wonder if the other models will begin show similar solutions? Member Since: Luglio 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 587

1632. denni 01:49 AM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
Hi everyone, I've been lurking since Rita and find this blog informative. It helps me keep up down here by Galveston. I am not a weather person and this blog keeps me prepared. I hate to see all the negative stuff going on, but I simply ignore it. I have paid attention to the people who know what they are talking about and go from there. Thanks for the blog. Member Since: Settembre 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 10

1635. Neapolitan 01:49 AM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
Quoting presslord: ...sorry, Charlie...but that's a load of crap...I should have some pretty high credibility when it comes to the compassion of people who're part of this community...and it's stunning...and I've probably personally met more members of this community than anyone...and, without exception, they've been good hearted, decent people...without exception... You only say that because you and I haven't hung out yet. ;-) Member Since: novembre 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11151

1636. Hurricanes101 01:50 AM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
Quoting RMM34667: Guess I read a different blog. I see people sharing information. I see people wanting others to "prepare for the worst but hope for the best". I saw the most amazing thing happen after a storm (I think it was IKE, but I'm not really sure anymore). I saw one person (and most know who that amazing person was) post a comment about getting stuff together to go help. I saw many others who wanted to help that effort. And I saw a little fund raiser explode. I see people getting excited over the wonder of watching a storm go from a blob, to a spin and emerge as a powerful force of nature. So I don't know what blog you are reading. But it's not the same as me. 2nd smartest post I have seen in a long time Member Since: Marzo 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

1637. SouthALWX 01:50 AM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Opal .... Could be looking at a similar scenario imo, though the genesis is a bit different. Member Since: Agosto 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1497

1638. Hou77083 01:50 AM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
Quoting TuMama: I think it was against me for being Hispanic. Please! Relax you are on a weather forum. I am hispanic too and I did not see anything racist about the coment. Member Since: Luglio 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 86

1639. Dakster 01:50 AM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
Quoting TuMama: Yes because to my huband I am supose to be the prettiest woman alive on the face of earth. Now you understand why he was banned... Member Since: Marzo 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4932

1641. mcluvincane 01:51 AM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
Quoting TuMama: Yes If I were not hispanic no mention of taco would be made. burritos are better IMO, thank goodness for the Hispanic culture. Best food ever. Member Since: Giugno 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1315

1642. RussianWinter 01:51 AM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
Quoting stoormfury: Looking at recent sat pics TD 14 now has a stucture of a strog TS. the system is moving west, and i expect the models to shift a little to the left. A jog to the west for a bit compared to wnw doesn't matter much overall when compared to the strength. On a track like this. I bet what would affect the track the most now is the strength. If it get's stronger than expected that will have a lot of impact into how much poleward motion the storm has before the storm approaches the weakness, which is probably the biggest factor in the effects this will bring to PR and the Lesser Antilles. If it get's to strong to fast this will be more or less a Katia like path which doesn't affect land. If it stays weak, it only delays the damage until it reaches warmer waters where it might EXPLODE with energy. If it stays the course then it will follow the NHC track most likely. Being weak for the short term can be the worst case scenario for Puerto Rico either way since if it misses the PR and goes for DR you will still have torrential rains in PR, which we don't need. Barring a weak trough that doesn't allow for recurvature, it is in everyone's best interests that this storm either dissipates along the way or reaches major storm status halfway between now and the Antilles. Member Since: Agosto 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 648

1643. killdevilmax 01:51 AM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
Please, enough with the feet and the tacos and the hispanic thing. If you must discuss this use the email feature Member Since: Agosto 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 322

1644. presslord 01:52 AM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
Quoting Neapolitan: You only say that because you and I haven't hung out yet. ;-) well...there has to be an exception to every rule...Right? ;-) Member Since: Agosto 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10377

1645. WeatherNerdPR 01:52 AM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
Pretty normal day in the tropics. Member Since: Luglio 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5464

1648. BDADUDE 01:53 AM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
Quoting mcluvincane: you sure? Link Its the time of year for recurves but we shall see. Its definately a good idea to keep an eye on it though just in case. Member Since: Settembre 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 602

1649. violet312s 01:53 AM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
Quoting RMM34667: Guess I read a different blog. I see people sharing information. I see people wanting others to "prepare for the worst but hope for the best". I saw the most amazing thing happen after a storm (I think it was IKE, but I'm not really sure anymore). I saw one person (and most know who that amazing person was) post a comment about getting stuff together to go help. I saw many others who wanted to help that effort. And I saw a little fund raiser explode. I see people getting excited over the wonder of watching a storm go from a blob, to a spin and emerge as a powerful force of nature. So I don't know what blog you are reading. But it's not the same as me. Yes it was Ike, and yes it was me who did the "matching" contribution for those who gave to Portlight. For me I just ignore the trolls and focus on those trying to help and share information. Plus lots of learning, most of which is still way over my head despite years of reading. :) Member Since: Giugno 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 779

1650. emcf30 01:53 AM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
TropicalAnalystwx13, I think you need to raise the level up a notch.. Member Since: Agosto 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1926

1651. KATRINABILOXIGIRL 01:53 AM GMT del 07 Settembre 2011
Quoting TuMama: Yes because to my huband I am supose to be the prettiest woman alive on the face of earth. Weather realated conversation please, geeeesh!!! Member Since: Luglio 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 324

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