Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Texas fires will diminish today; Lee's rains set all-time records

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 01:27 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011

+32

East Texas' dangerous fires continued to rage out of control yesterday, thanks to gusty north winds associated with the passage of a cold front and the remnant circulation of Tropical Storm Lee. Since Saturday, wildfires have torched over 500 homes in East Texas and killed two people. At Austin Bergstrom Airport, sustained winds of 20 - 25 mph, gusting to 30 - 35 mph blew much of the day yesterday. Tropical Storm Lee's remnants didn't bring any clouds or moisture to Austin yesterday, and the temperature climbed to 91°, with a humidity of just 11%. With the region enduring it's driest 1-year drought on record, yesterday's heat, dryness, and winds resulted in critical fire conditions. The forecast today for Austin is much better--winds will be only 5 - 10 mph, which should give firefighters the upper hand in many of the blazes, despite low humidities that will be in the 15 - 25% range. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is not predicting that critical fire weather conditions will return during the remainder of the week. You can monitor today's fire activity by using our wundermap for Austin with the fire layer turned on.

Figure 1. True-color image taken by NASA's Aqua satellite of the the fires burning near Austin, Texas on September 5, 2011. Image credit: NASA.

Video 1. Video shot by a motorist on Highway 21 near Austin, Texas of the smoke from the fires that raced through Bastrop County on September 4, 2011.The highway closes and the motorist is forced to turn around.

Texas' unprecedented heat
As I reported in yesterday's post, there has never been a Texas summer hotter than the summer of 2011. The summer of 2011 now holds every major heat record for the city of Austin, including most 100° days (67 so far), hottest month in recorded history (August, breaking the previous record by a remarkable 2.1°), hottest summer (by 1.1°), and hottest day in history (112°F, tied with Sep, 5, 2000.) As wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt documents in his latest blog post, the situation is similar across the rest of the state. Seventeen major cities in Texas recorded their hottest summer on record in 2011. Most of these stations had records extending back more than 100 years, and several of the records were smashed by an amazing 3.4°F--at Lubbock and at Wichita Falls. Neighboring states also experienced unprecedented heat, with Oklahoma recording America's hottest month by any state in recorded history during July, and Shreveport, Louisiana breaking its record for hottest month by 3°F in August. Mr. Burt commented to me: " I do not believe I have ever seen a site with a long period of record, like Shreveport, where records go back to 1874, break its warmest single month on record by an astonishing 3°. This is unheard of. Usually when a site breaks its single month temperature record, we are talking about tenths of a degree, rarely a whole degree, let alone 3 degrees! Hard to believe, frankly." Texas has also had its worst fire season on record, with over 3.5 million acres burned this year, and it's driest 1-year period in recorded history.

Figure 2. Observed soil moisture for Sunday Sep 4, 2011. Soil moisture is expressed in percent, with 50% being a historically average soil moisture level. Very dry soils, with moistures in the driest 1% - 30% in history (red and orange colors), were present over much of the south, where Lee dropped its heaviest rains. These dry soils have limited flooding damage. Image credit: N OAA Climate Prediction Center.

Heavy rains from Lee create significant flooding
Tropical Storm Lee is no more, but its remnants are marching slowly northeastwards along a stalled cold front, bringing torrential rains. Jackson, Mississippi received 11.68" in a 24 hour period yesterday, which is that city's heaviest 24-hour rainfall on record, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt. Their previous record was 8.54", set April 11 -12, 1979. Fortunately, Jackson was in severe drought, and the dry soils were able to absorb a significant amount of rain before the local rivers began flooding. The Pearl River at Jackson rose above flood stage this morning, and is expected to crest at moderate flood stage late this week. Chattanooga, Tennessee also set its record for the wettest 24-hour period in its history, with 9.85" falling yesterday. The previous record was 7.61", set on March 30, 1886. Again, the dry soils that were present before the event started will help keep river flooding in the minor to moderate range on area rivers. Soils are at near-average moisture levels in Central Pennsylvania, where Lee's remnants are expected to drop over seven inches of rain over the next two days. These rains should cause moderate and possibly major flooding in Pennsylvania. Also of concern is the potential for tornadoes today. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has logged 25 tornado reports over the past three days from Lee, including three near Atlanta, Georgia yesterday. More tornadoes are likely today over North Carolina, Southern Virginia, and Northern South Carolina, where SPC is predicting a "Slight Risk" of severe weather.

Lee's heaviest rain amounts, by state, as of 4 am CDT today:

Holden, LA: 15.43"
Florence, MS: 13.45"
Tillman's Corner, AL: 11.74"
Milton, FL: 10.03"
Chattanooga, TN: 9.85"
Rome, GA: 5.70"
Roanoake, VA: 4.30"
Bluefield, WV: 3.14"
Bridge City, TX: 3.12"
Flatwoods, KY: 3.67"

Figure 3. Predicted rainfall for the 2-day period 8am EDT Tuesday - 8 am EDT Thursday, Sep 8, 2011. Lee's remnants are expected to bring a large swath of 7+ inches of rain into Central Pennsylvania. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Hurricane Katia
Hurricane Katia strengthened this morning into the Atlantic's first Category 4 hurricane of the year, but has slipped slightly in intensity due to an eyewall replacement cycle, and is now a strong Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. Latest satellite loops show that the eye has now disappeared, and the hurricane is having trouble maintaining its eyewall in the face of moderate wind shear of 10 - 15 knots on its northwest side. Continued weakening to a Category 2 storm is a possibility, though Katia will probably re-strengthen later today or on Wednesday once it manages to build a new eyewall.

The computer models continue to agree that a low pressure system over the Eastern U.S. associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee will turn Katia to the north well before the storm reaches the U.S. As the storm moves northwards past North Carolina, Katia will get caught up in west-to-east moving winds associated with the jet stream, and taken northeastwards out to sea. No land areas are in Katia's cone of uncertainty, and Katia's outer rainbands should remain just offshore from North Carolina, New England, and the Canadian Maritime provinces at the point of closest approach. The main impact of Katia will be high surf leading to beach erosion and dangerous rip currents. Long period swells from Katia have arrived at the coast, and the entire U.S. East Coast will receive an extended multi-day period of high surf. The East Coast is lucky that Tropical Storm Lee came along, since Lee helped to create the steering pattern that will keep Katia from hitting the U.S.

Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Katia.

95L off the coast of Africa
A large tropical wave with plenty of intense thunderstorm activity and spin is located about 700 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa. This wave, Invest 95L, is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and is headed west to west-northwest at 15 mph. Recent satellite loops show that 95L has an elongated circulation center; this will need to tighten up into a more circular shape before the storm can become a tropical depression. Water vapor satellite images show that 95L is embedded in a very moist environment. Ocean temperatures are near 28°C, which is 1.5°C above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed for a tropical storm to form. With wind shear predicted to remain low to moderate the next four days, the atmosphere expected to stay moist, and ocean temperatures predicted to gradually warm, I don't see anything that would keep 95L from becoming a tropical depression in 1 - 2 days. NHC is giving 95L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. There is a large amount of model support for development of 95L into a tropical depression, with most of the models predicting it could be a weak tropical storm by the time it reaches the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Friday or Saturday. Residents of the islands should anticipate the possibility of tropical storm conditions arriving as early as Friday. Most of the models predict 95L will follow a path near or slightly north of the Northern Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico, then curve northwestwards, on a trajectory that would likely miss the Bahamas.

New Gulf of Mexico disturbance
A cold front swept into the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas behind Tropical Storm Lee yesterday morning, and has stalled out along a line from Tampa, Florida to Mexico's Bay of Campeche in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Heavy thunderstorms have begun to build along the tail end of this front in the Bay of Campeche, but are still not very concentrated or organized. Most of the computer models develop a tropical depression in the Bay of Campeche late this week, and these same models did very well at anticipating the formation of Tropical Storm Lee in the Gulf of Mexico last week. Given the moderate wind shear, warm waters, and presence of an old cold front to serve as a nucleus for development, a new Gulf of Mexico tropical depression by late this week appears likely. The path such a storm might take would depend strongly on where the center forms. A more northerly formation location near the top of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula would likely result in a northward motion towards the Florida Panhandle. This is the solution of the European Center Model (ECMWF), which takes a weak tropical storm with a central pressure of 1000 mb into the Florida Panhandle on Sunday. A more southerly formation location might lead to the storm getting trapped in a region of weak steering currents, resulting in a slow, erratic motion in the southern Gulf. This is the solution of the latest runs of the GFS, NOGAPS, and UKMET models. NHC is giving this disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday.

Figure 5. Volunteers with Portlight.org disaster relief charity take a break from their Hurricane Irene relief efforts in Pink Hill, NC. From their latest blog post:Please help as you can. And please remember in your thoughts and prayers those in the path of Irene.

Jeff Masters

Crockett Texas Wildfire 2 (Moussifer)

A tree becomes a torch. We could hear the fire's roar.

Bastrop's Burnin (CenTexWeatherGal)

This HUGE fire has already burned over 500 homes and over 30,000 acres. It is 0, yes 0 percent contained and stretches 16 miles long and 6 miles wide. The smoke plume can be seen on dopler radar. This fire is actually to the north east of Bastrop which is east of Austin.

Magnolia Fire (shanzi)

Mighty close!

flood (lazzyhazy1)

Categories: Fire Flood Hurricane

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901. MississippiWx 09:13 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Lol...The 18z NAM spells doom: Member Since: Luglio 15, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 8511

903. MississippiWx 09:14 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Anyway, gotta go to class (ugh). Later all. Member Since: Luglio 15, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 8511

904. WxLogic 09:14 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
NAM (Parallel) 12Z vs 18Z 500MB Heights comparison for Sat 00Z: 12Z: 18Z: CONUS ULL is being trended to be positioned in a less zonal patter at its base. If trends continues then I would see other models agreeing on at the very least stalling 96L in the C GOM until it either gets picked up by the departing TROF of gets left behind (like Lee) and await a building High to steering it back to the W/SW or another TROF to pick up once more. One things to note is that if 96L stays too long in the GOM it could reinforce the SW extension of Bermuda High and possibly trap any DB traveling through the Carib and bringing it into the NW Carib. Member Since: Agosto 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4667

905. jmag2424 09:14 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Hi! Been lurking for a long time and just wanted to ask one question. What are the chances of 96L sending some much needed rain to Texas? Thanks! Member Since: Settembre 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 10

906. robert88 09:16 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Looks the like BOC disturbance is getting pulled away from the trough...could very well end up in MX like the GFS was showing Member Since: Maggio 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 877

907. TropicalAnalystwx13 09:16 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting jmag2424: Hi! Been lurking for a long time and just wanted to ask one question. What are the chances of 96L sending some much needed rain to Texas? Thanks! Low - And if it ends up where I think, near the Florida panhandle, it will just send drier weather to Texas, like Lee. Member Since: Luglio 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25214

908. TropicalAnalystwx13 09:17 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting robert88: Looks the like BOC disturbance is getting pulled away from the trough...could very well end up in MX like the GFS was showing Doubt it -- with such a strong trough being forecast, IMO it would undoubtedly move towards the Eastern Gulf Coast. Member Since: Luglio 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25214

909. jmag2424 09:17 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Thanks! Member Since: Settembre 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 10

913. PukkaChukkas 09:21 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Aspectre - suspect that wins the prize for the largest ever post this blog! Keep posting the XTR's - statistically, one day there will be a storm that shoots straight down the line - let's just hope the track is due North when it does!! Member Since: Agosto 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 6

914. TropicalAnalystwx13 09:21 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting weatherjr: I see TD 14 moving almost due west. Any comments? At this moment I think it will not reach the caribbean islands. Any comments? If it moves towards the west, I think it will inevitably reach the Caribbean Islands. Member Since: Luglio 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25214

915. MiamiHurricanes09 09:21 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Blog Update Tropical Update: September 6th; 5:20p.m EDT Brief updates (I'm not a fan of those 6 paragraph essays on tropical cyclones lol) on 14L, Katia, and Invest 96L. Feel free to check it out. Member Since: Settembre 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

916. TropicalAnalystwx13 09:22 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting BrockBerlin: Ha although the NAM is horrible with cyclones it seems to have TD 14 very far south with nice ridging, which is somewhat interesting (also interesting is 96L's position and intensity obviously lol). The NAM is not horrible with tropical cyclones, it has nailed several this season when other reliable models (ECMWF, GFS) have not. People don't give the NAM enough credit. Member Since: Luglio 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25214

918. 996tt 09:23 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting cmahan: Seriously? Rover tracks in moon dust isn't enough detail for you? Either you're also joking -- in which case sorry, my bad -- or there really is just no pleasing some people. Pleasing. I am not looking to be pleased or seeking evidence, so I am not sure where you are coming from. I just expected more detail with current technology. We have seen some extraordinary and detailed colorful photos from Hubble and we can see cracks in the sidewalk on the internet from space. These photos look 70s ish technology to me. Not trying to start any conspiracy theory issue debates and not sure I even care whether landings were real or faked. Have other things to ponder in life, like whether whether a Ferrari or a Lambo is a better investment or more bang for the buck. Seriously though, if you take time to send something up to orbit and take photos, seem like we would get some high quality, high resolution, color shots capable of showing the details of the American flag. That being said, I enjoyed viewing the photos and learned some things from the two articles. Just surprised at technology. Member Since: Settembre 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 308

920. Clearwater1 09:25 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
What seems a little strange is that the NHC graphic (cone) shows a ts over the Leeward Islands, yet in the discussion it states that they expect it to be a hurricane as it approaches the Leewards. Of course we all know the stronger the storm, the better chance of a re curve sooner. "BUT THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. " per NHC Maybe they meant the Bahamas. First cone sure looks a lot like an Irene sort of track. But of course lots of cones before it gets where it's going. Member Since: Agosto 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1502

921. TropicalAnalystwx13 09:26 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting FLdewey: Going out on a limb with that prediction aren't ya? LOL. Member Since: Luglio 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25214

922. rushisaband 09:26 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Well Lee finally moved outta here. I received over 7 inches of rain from noon friday to noon sunday. thought I would get more than that. That dry air that the system ingested really saved some folks a bad blow. I think Lee would have been a monster if that had not happened. btw I am in the extreme western fla p'hdle Member Since: Agosto 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 107

924. TropicalAnalystwx13 09:27 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting rushisaband: Well Lee finally moved outta here. I received over 7 inches of rain from noon friday to noon sunday. thought I would get more than that. That dry air that the system ingested really saved some folks a bad blow. I think Lee would have been a monster if that had not happened. btw I am in the extreme western fla p'hdle You better start watching Invest 96L, as I believe there is a high probability of it moving towards that general area. Dewey, don't comment on this! XD Member Since: Luglio 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25214

925. TropicalAnalystwx13 09:29 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Cute tropical depression, should be Maria at 11PM, IMO. Member Since: Luglio 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25214

926. DeMango 09:30 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting BaltimoreBrian: aspectre I like your straight line projections. Yes it sure is good to know that Katia will not hit Myrtle Beach! Member Since: Settembre 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 12

927. TX2FL 09:32 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting Levi32: It was the GFS ensemble mean. What would have to happen for TD 14 to hit the United States is either for it to pass into the heart of the Caribbean instead of north of Hispaniola, or to move slowly enough to allow the trough shown by the GFS to lift out before the storm gets to 70W. Correct me if I'm mistaken, are we not entering a positive NAO and that strengthens the subtropical ridge, making it less suceptable to weaknesses and pushing storms on a westward track? Member Since: Luglio 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 117

928. rushisaband 09:32 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: You better start watching Invest 96L, as I believe there is a high probability of it moving towards that general area. Dewey, don't comment on this! XD yes, maybe. might be another battle of a strenghtening tropical system against dry air. I thought Lee would overcome that. Did not happen though Member Since: Agosto 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 107

929. WeatherNerdPR 09:33 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
I don't like this. Member Since: Luglio 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5464

930. Clearwater1 09:33 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting WeatherNerdPR: I don't like this. Looks like Irene part II Member Since: Agosto 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1502

931. MiamiHurricanes09 09:34 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting BrockBerlin: Did that debacle last night make you change your avatar lol? Nah, LOL. I changed it a while back, but I would of changed it regardless after last night. They're missing 8 players though, so it's not like I was expecting a win, but 4 turnovers is just plain bad. Member Since: Settembre 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

932. Dakster 09:34 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting FLdewey: A little early... give it 24 hours. Like 5 days or so early... Without a good center and HH data, the models are well, not that great this far out. I am not exactly gonna go put the shutters up tonight. Member Since: Marzo 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4926

933. violet312s 09:36 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting WeatherNerdPR: I don't like this. Yup, that path looks awfully familiar Member Since: Giugno 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 769

934. Tazmanian 09:36 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting WeatherNerdPR: I don't like this. dont you love the cone of doom lol Member Since: Maggio 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111323

935. AstroHurricane001 09:37 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
In Southern Ontario, I'm once again on the outskirts of a cloud merger between a tropical cyclone and a frontal boundary: this time it's the remnants of Lee. A wide array of cirrus, cirrocumulus and rapid-moving stratocumulus span the sky days after flooding rains, a sign that any tropical cyclone carries a silver (or shall I say blue) lining. Member Since: Agosto 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2811

936. aquak9 09:37 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
I am not exactly gonna go put the shutters up tonight. I never took mine down, hahahah Member Since: Agosto 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25005

937. Tazmanian 09:37 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
looks like we may have Irene part 2 Member Since: Maggio 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111323

938. Dakster 09:37 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: The NAM is not horrible with tropical cyclones, it has nailed several this season when other reliable models (ECMWF, GFS) have not. People don't give the NAM enough credit. I agree, that this year, the NAM has done quite well. Even though it isn't its forte'. This is a classic reason why there are more than just ONE model out there. Each "season", it seems like a different model does better than others. Member Since: Marzo 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4926

940. indianrivguy 09:38 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Nah, LOL. I changed it a while back, but I would of changed it regardless after last night. They're missing 8 players though, so it's not like I was expecting a win, but 4 turnovers is just plain bad. gunna be a long season for us brother Cane :( Member Since: Settembre 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1778

942. Clearwater1 09:38 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting weatherjr: I see TD 14 moving almost due west. Any comments? At this moment I think it will not reach the caribbean islands. Any comments? Damn, If you look at wide view satellite visual, everything of concern looks like it it's moving west. Oh, the NHC states that is will cross the Caribbean islands. We shall see I'm sure Member Since: Agosto 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1502

943. WeatherNerdPR 09:39 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting violet312s: Yup, that path looks awfully familiar Too similar. Member Since: Luglio 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5464

945. Dakster 09:39 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting aquak9: I am not exactly gonna go put the shutters up tonight. I never took mine down, hahahah You are messing with the Florida Exercise Program... Put the shutters up, take the shutters down, put the shutters up, take the shutters down... lol.. Member Since: Marzo 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4926

946. TropicalAnalystwx13 09:39 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting rushisaband: yes, maybe. might be another battle of a strenghtening tropical system against dry air. I thought Lee would overcome that. Did not happen though Dry air will not last much longer. As return flow ramps up over the next 24-48 hours, the dry air will pretty much dissipate, leaving at least marginally favorable conditions available to 96L. Member Since: Luglio 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25214

947. HCW 09:39 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting FLdewey: With your handle you shouldn't be saying "Oh Dear" You'll ruin the sitch's rep. *fist pump* Another curve ball... That link has now Changed Member Since: Agosto 10, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1280

949. Dakster 09:40 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting indianrivguy: gunna be a long season for us brother Cane :( After the debacle (before the season started), I wrote this season off... Member Since: Marzo 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4926

950. BaltimoreBrian 09:40 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: Cute tropical depression, should be Maria at 11PM, IMO. Could be but I bet they wait until 5 a.m. to see the visible shots and make sure the center is with the convection. It's what they did for Katia. Member Since: Agosto 9, 2011 Posts: 25 Comments: 3304

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