Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Texas fires will diminish today; Lee's rains set all-time records

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 01:27 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011

+32

East Texas' dangerous fires continued to rage out of control yesterday, thanks to gusty north winds associated with the passage of a cold front and the remnant circulation of Tropical Storm Lee. Since Saturday, wildfires have torched over 500 homes in East Texas and killed two people. At Austin Bergstrom Airport, sustained winds of 20 - 25 mph, gusting to 30 - 35 mph blew much of the day yesterday. Tropical Storm Lee's remnants didn't bring any clouds or moisture to Austin yesterday, and the temperature climbed to 91°, with a humidity of just 11%. With the region enduring it's driest 1-year drought on record, yesterday's heat, dryness, and winds resulted in critical fire conditions. The forecast today for Austin is much better--winds will be only 5 - 10 mph, which should give firefighters the upper hand in many of the blazes, despite low humidities that will be in the 15 - 25% range. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is not predicting that critical fire weather conditions will return during the remainder of the week. You can monitor today's fire activity by using our wundermap for Austin with the fire layer turned on.

Figure 1. True-color image taken by NASA's Aqua satellite of the the fires burning near Austin, Texas on September 5, 2011. Image credit: NASA.

Video 1. Video shot by a motorist on Highway 21 near Austin, Texas of the smoke from the fires that raced through Bastrop County on September 4, 2011.The highway closes and the motorist is forced to turn around.

Texas' unprecedented heat
As I reported in yesterday's post, there has never been a Texas summer hotter than the summer of 2011. The summer of 2011 now holds every major heat record for the city of Austin, including most 100° days (67 so far), hottest month in recorded history (August, breaking the previous record by a remarkable 2.1°), hottest summer (by 1.1°), and hottest day in history (112°F, tied with Sep, 5, 2000.) As wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt documents in his latest blog post, the situation is similar across the rest of the state. Seventeen major cities in Texas recorded their hottest summer on record in 2011. Most of these stations had records extending back more than 100 years, and several of the records were smashed by an amazing 3.4°F--at Lubbock and at Wichita Falls. Neighboring states also experienced unprecedented heat, with Oklahoma recording America's hottest month by any state in recorded history during July, and Shreveport, Louisiana breaking its record for hottest month by 3°F in August. Mr. Burt commented to me: " I do not believe I have ever seen a site with a long period of record, like Shreveport, where records go back to 1874, break its warmest single month on record by an astonishing 3°. This is unheard of. Usually when a site breaks its single month temperature record, we are talking about tenths of a degree, rarely a whole degree, let alone 3 degrees! Hard to believe, frankly." Texas has also had its worst fire season on record, with over 3.5 million acres burned this year, and it's driest 1-year period in recorded history.

Figure 2. Observed soil moisture for Sunday Sep 4, 2011. Soil moisture is expressed in percent, with 50% being a historically average soil moisture level. Very dry soils, with moistures in the driest 1% - 30% in history (red and orange colors), were present over much of the south, where Lee dropped its heaviest rains. These dry soils have limited flooding damage. Image credit: N OAA Climate Prediction Center.

Heavy rains from Lee create significant flooding
Tropical Storm Lee is no more, but its remnants are marching slowly northeastwards along a stalled cold front, bringing torrential rains. Jackson, Mississippi received 11.68" in a 24 hour period yesterday, which is that city's heaviest 24-hour rainfall on record, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt. Their previous record was 8.54", set April 11 -12, 1979. Fortunately, Jackson was in severe drought, and the dry soils were able to absorb a significant amount of rain before the local rivers began flooding. The Pearl River at Jackson rose above flood stage this morning, and is expected to crest at moderate flood stage late this week. Chattanooga, Tennessee also set its record for the wettest 24-hour period in its history, with 9.85" falling yesterday. The previous record was 7.61", set on March 30, 1886. Again, the dry soils that were present before the event started will help keep river flooding in the minor to moderate range on area rivers. Soils are at near-average moisture levels in Central Pennsylvania, where Lee's remnants are expected to drop over seven inches of rain over the next two days. These rains should cause moderate and possibly major flooding in Pennsylvania. Also of concern is the potential for tornadoes today. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has logged 25 tornado reports over the past three days from Lee, including three near Atlanta, Georgia yesterday. More tornadoes are likely today over North Carolina, Southern Virginia, and Northern South Carolina, where SPC is predicting a "Slight Risk" of severe weather.

Lee's heaviest rain amounts, by state, as of 4 am CDT today:

Holden, LA: 15.43"
Florence, MS: 13.45"
Tillman's Corner, AL: 11.74"
Milton, FL: 10.03"
Chattanooga, TN: 9.85"
Rome, GA: 5.70"
Roanoake, VA: 4.30"
Bluefield, WV: 3.14"
Bridge City, TX: 3.12"
Flatwoods, KY: 3.67"

Figure 3. Predicted rainfall for the 2-day period 8am EDT Tuesday - 8 am EDT Thursday, Sep 8, 2011. Lee's remnants are expected to bring a large swath of 7+ inches of rain into Central Pennsylvania. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Hurricane Katia
Hurricane Katia strengthened this morning into the Atlantic's first Category 4 hurricane of the year, but has slipped slightly in intensity due to an eyewall replacement cycle, and is now a strong Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. Latest satellite loops show that the eye has now disappeared, and the hurricane is having trouble maintaining its eyewall in the face of moderate wind shear of 10 - 15 knots on its northwest side. Continued weakening to a Category 2 storm is a possibility, though Katia will probably re-strengthen later today or on Wednesday once it manages to build a new eyewall.

The computer models continue to agree that a low pressure system over the Eastern U.S. associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee will turn Katia to the north well before the storm reaches the U.S. As the storm moves northwards past North Carolina, Katia will get caught up in west-to-east moving winds associated with the jet stream, and taken northeastwards out to sea. No land areas are in Katia's cone of uncertainty, and Katia's outer rainbands should remain just offshore from North Carolina, New England, and the Canadian Maritime provinces at the point of closest approach. The main impact of Katia will be high surf leading to beach erosion and dangerous rip currents. Long period swells from Katia have arrived at the coast, and the entire U.S. East Coast will receive an extended multi-day period of high surf. The East Coast is lucky that Tropical Storm Lee came along, since Lee helped to create the steering pattern that will keep Katia from hitting the U.S.

Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Katia.

95L off the coast of Africa
A large tropical wave with plenty of intense thunderstorm activity and spin is located about 700 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa. This wave, Invest 95L, is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and is headed west to west-northwest at 15 mph. Recent satellite loops show that 95L has an elongated circulation center; this will need to tighten up into a more circular shape before the storm can become a tropical depression. Water vapor satellite images show that 95L is embedded in a very moist environment. Ocean temperatures are near 28°C, which is 1.5°C above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed for a tropical storm to form. With wind shear predicted to remain low to moderate the next four days, the atmosphere expected to stay moist, and ocean temperatures predicted to gradually warm, I don't see anything that would keep 95L from becoming a tropical depression in 1 - 2 days. NHC is giving 95L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. There is a large amount of model support for development of 95L into a tropical depression, with most of the models predicting it could be a weak tropical storm by the time it reaches the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Friday or Saturday. Residents of the islands should anticipate the possibility of tropical storm conditions arriving as early as Friday. Most of the models predict 95L will follow a path near or slightly north of the Northern Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico, then curve northwestwards, on a trajectory that would likely miss the Bahamas.

New Gulf of Mexico disturbance
A cold front swept into the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas behind Tropical Storm Lee yesterday morning, and has stalled out along a line from Tampa, Florida to Mexico's Bay of Campeche in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Heavy thunderstorms have begun to build along the tail end of this front in the Bay of Campeche, but are still not very concentrated or organized. Most of the computer models develop a tropical depression in the Bay of Campeche late this week, and these same models did very well at anticipating the formation of Tropical Storm Lee in the Gulf of Mexico last week. Given the moderate wind shear, warm waters, and presence of an old cold front to serve as a nucleus for development, a new Gulf of Mexico tropical depression by late this week appears likely. The path such a storm might take would depend strongly on where the center forms. A more northerly formation location near the top of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula would likely result in a northward motion towards the Florida Panhandle. This is the solution of the European Center Model (ECMWF), which takes a weak tropical storm with a central pressure of 1000 mb into the Florida Panhandle on Sunday. A more southerly formation location might lead to the storm getting trapped in a region of weak steering currents, resulting in a slow, erratic motion in the southern Gulf. This is the solution of the latest runs of the GFS, NOGAPS, and UKMET models. NHC is giving this disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday.

Figure 5. Volunteers with Portlight.org disaster relief charity take a break from their Hurricane Irene relief efforts in Pink Hill, NC. From their latest blog post:Please help as you can. And please remember in your thoughts and prayers those in the path of Irene.

Jeff Masters

Crockett Texas Wildfire 2 (Moussifer)

A tree becomes a torch. We could hear the fire's roar.

Bastrop's Burnin (CenTexWeatherGal)

This HUGE fire has already burned over 500 homes and over 30,000 acres. It is 0, yes 0 percent contained and stretches 16 miles long and 6 miles wide. The smoke plume can be seen on dopler radar. This fire is actually to the north east of Bastrop which is east of Austin.

Magnolia Fire (shanzi)

Mighty close!

flood (lazzyhazy1)

Categories: Fire Flood Hurricane

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701. TampaTom 07:52 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting Patrap: Apollo 12 was going along Fine with their First Lunar EVA till someone,,I wont say who, Pointed the 'Color" TV Cam at the Sun without the Lens Cap. "Fiizzzzzit"... We wouldnt see TV from the Moon again till Apollo 14 an Alan Shepherd's Golf Swing. Darned astronauts... can't do a thing with 'em! Member Since: Giugno 20, 2005 Posts: 22 Comments: 1049

702. Patrap 07:52 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting presslord: Ron Howard orchestrated the whole Apollo 13 business... Tom Hanks was a Mercury 7 wasnt he? Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111579

703. HuracanTaino 07:53 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting Methurricanes: is TD 14 in the CATL or teh GOM?? Member Since: Maggio 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 526

704. yonzabam 07:53 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting Levi32: 12z UKMET keeps the gulf system fairly far south through Day 6, and its forecast for 95L actually makes sense for once. UK mets are on holiday and the janitor is filling in for them. I'm nearly as far north as you, here in Scotland. We've had a miserable summer, with temps around mid 60s for months and showers every other day. My fav TV series is set in Alaska (wasn't made there, though). Northern Exposure. Loved the opening scenes with the moose walking through the town. Or was it an elk? Never learned to tell them apart. As you're a youngster, you might not have seen it. I've got the full boxed DVD set. Hardly ever seen any of the actors in anything since. Member Since: Luglio 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1731

705. Tazmanian 07:53 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: I welcome our two new additions to the team - Tropical Depression #16 and Invest 96L. and this be hid TD 14 Member Since: Maggio 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111355

706. justalurker 07:53 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Member Since: Agosto 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 157

707. TampaTom 07:53 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting Patrap: Tom Hanks was a Mercury 7 wasnt he? He flew between Grissom and Glenn.... Member Since: Giugno 20, 2005 Posts: 22 Comments: 1049

708. islander101010 07:53 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting Tazmanian: and other wave be hid TD 14 landfalls is what really counts if we could only get rid of irene Member Since: Settembre 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2968

709. Patrap 07:54 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting TampaTom: He flew between Grissom and Glenn.... Indeed MR-3.2 Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111579

710. Tazmanian 07:54 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting HuracanTaino: Action: Quote \| Ignore User Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 96 do you most do that? Member Since: Maggio 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111355

711. MiamiHurricanes09 07:55 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: Good Afternoon everyone, stopped by momentarily at school to post the 11AM advisory, lol. Not necessarily, although the rain rate is high. Flight level winds were also way below what was observed by the SFMR instrument. ================================================= Thank you Nrt and Mississippi for the info. Appreciated. Member Since: Settembre 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

712. Patrap 07:56 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
APOLLO 12 Launched right thru a T-Storm and created their own Lightening at Launch that Knocked out the CM Platform till a switch throw reset the thing. I believe it was, "SC-to Aux" if mem serves me today. Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111579

713. BaltimoreBrian 07:56 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
That sounds like a story from the Soviet Venera landing program on Venus. On one of the landings in the 1970s they used a plastic lens cap on their surface probe. It melted instantly in the 900 degree heat. When the video feed began one of the scientists said "It seems to be surrounded by a dark, viscous liquid." Then one of the engineers piped up, "Yes we are in deep sh%!" Member Since:* Agosto 9, 2011 Posts: 25 Comments: 3357

714. Levi32 07:56 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting yonzabam: UK mets are on holiday and the janitor is filling in for them. I'm nearly as far north as you, here in Scotland. We've had a miserable summer, with temps around mid 60s for months and showers every other day. My fav TV series is set in Alaska (wasn't made there, though). Northern Exposure. Loved the opening scenes with the moose walking through the town. Or was it an elk? Never learned to tell them apart. As you're a youngster, you might not have seen it. I've got the full boxed DVD set. Hardly ever seen any of the actors in anything since. What's the name of this series? I haven't seen moose in anything but nature shows lol. Elks are generally told apart by their high-pitched bay, but in terms of looks, they are generally lighter/grayer than moose. Member Since: novembre 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25458

715. TropicalAnalystwx13 07:57 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Flight level winds were also way below what was observed by the SFMR instrument. ================================================= ======== Thank you Nrt and Mississippi for the info. Appreciated. In Katia's case, I know that it was contaminated. However, there may be a storm that comes along where that situation may be true. If that confuses you, just ignore it. :P Member Since: Luglio 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25322

716. wunderkidcayman 07:57 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
we have TD14 EGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al142011.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201109061840 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END FOURTEEN, AL, L, , , , , 14, 2011, TD, O, 2011090506, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, 4, AL142011 Member Since: Giugno 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5449

717. TampaTom 07:57 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting Patrap: APOLLO 12 Launched right thru a T-Storm and created their own Lightening at Launch that Knocked out the CM Platform till a switch throw reset the thing. I believe it was, "SC-to Aux" if me serves me today. Saturn V launches NEVER fail to satisfy... Member Since: Giugno 20, 2005 Posts: 22 Comments: 1049

718. Tazmanian 07:58 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting wunderkidcayman: we have TD14 EGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al142011.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201109061840 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END FOURTEEN, AL, L, , , , , 14, 2011, TD, O, 2011090506, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, 4, AL142011 your too late we no Member Since: Maggio 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111355

719. tropicfreak 07:58 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting Tazmanian: and this be hid TD 14 Maybe future 97L? Member Since: Settembre 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6566

720. TropicalAnalystwx13 07:58 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting wunderkidcayman: we have TD14 EGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al142011.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201109061840 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END FOURTEEN, AL, L, , , , , 14, 2011, TD, O, 2011090506, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, 4, AL142011 Little late there, lol ;) Member Since: Luglio 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25322

721. Tazmanian 07:59 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting tropicfreak: Maybe future 97L? may be Member Since: Maggio 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111355

722. cmahan 07:59 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting yonzabam: UK mets are on holiday and the janitor is filling in for them. I'm nearly as far north as you, here in Scotland. We've had a miserable summer, with temps around mid 60s for months and showers every other day. My fav TV series is set in Alaska (wasn't made there, though). Northern Exposure. Loved the opening scenes with the moose walking through the town. Or was it an elk? Never learned to tell them apart. As you're a youngster, you might not have seen it. I've got the full boxed DVD set. Hardly ever seen any of the actors in anything since. Rob Morrow was in Numb3rs for six years, among others, they got around. ... I'm humming the theme song at the office now, thank you for that :) Member Since: Settembre 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 143

723. Some1Has2BtheRookie 08:00 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting Neapolitan: I know others have mentioned this already but it is, er, lovely. Use the "Forecast" slider on the right. Sister following big brother? Patrick, more Fresca! Member Since: Agosto 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4102

724. BaltimoreBrian 08:00 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
On the next Venera landing, they used a titanium lens cap, and it was flipped off the camera without any problems. They got good pictures. They were also going to take a quick sample of the Venus soil and do a quick analysis before the spacecraft fried. They extended the soil probe and it came in contact with something very hard, and unmistakably terrerstrial in origin. The durn lens cap again. They estimated the chance of such a mishap at 1 in a thousand. Member Since: Agosto 9, 2011 Posts: 25 Comments: 3357

725. cmahan 08:01 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting Levi32: What's the name of this series? I haven't seen moose in anything but nature shows lol. Elks are generally told apart by their high-pitched bay, but in terms of looks, they are generally lighter/grayer than moose. Northern Exposure, it was about a small Alaskan town with a number of... characters in it :) The moose (I think) walks around town during the opening credits but doesn't make any noises. Member Since: Settembre 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 143

726. wunderkidcayman 08:03 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
yes I know this is what training with 48 hours no sleep does to me I'll be back goin to grab a red bull Member Since: Giugno 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5449

727. HuracanTaino 08:04 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting Tazmanian: do you most do that? Do what? Member Since: Maggio 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 526

728. CybrTeddy 08:05 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting Patrap: APOLLO 12 Launched right thru a T-Storm and created their own Lightening at Launch that Knocked out the CM Platform till a switch throw reset the thing. I believe it was, "SC-to Aux" if mem serves me today. Yup, an 'obscure' little switch that was over LMP Bean's shoulder. November '69. Member Since: Luglio 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20259

729. FLWeatherFreak91 08:05 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
I'm anxious to see the 18z models more 96l. Member Since: Dicembre 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3461

730. BaltimoreBrian 08:05 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting presslord: Ron Howard orchestrated the whole Apollo 13 business... No! Not Opie! Member Since: Agosto 9, 2011 Posts: 25 Comments: 3357

731. Tazmanian 08:05 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting HuracanTaino: Do what? never mine Member Since: Maggio 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111355

732. emcf30 08:05 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting Tazmanian: and this be hid TD 14 Taz, I have a feeling your going to be busy with your list for the next few weeks. Member Since: Agosto 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1926

733. yonzabam 08:05 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting Levi32: What's the name of this series? I haven't seen moose in anything but nature shows lol. Elks are generally told apart by their high-pitched bay, but in terms of looks, they are generally lighter/grayer than moose. Northern Exposure. A little bit like 'Twin Peaks', but not as surreal. Had a surreal streak in it that I liked. Was mainly about a recently qualified NYC doctor (Rob Morrow) who had been almost 'shanghaied' into being the town doctor. Town was called 'Cicely'. Had lots of storylines with local native Americans, who actually played roles in it. Ed Chigliak was the regular. Chris, the town DJ, was pretty good in it. Member Since: Luglio 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1731

734. VentureH 08:06 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting Patrap: Tom Hanks was a Mercury 7 wasnt he? I think that was Ed Harris. Member Since: Settembre 27, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 25

735. lennit 08:06 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
what is amazing is this year again with the persistant trof off the east coast.. it never goes away it constantly reloads and recurves. i know everyone is waiting for ridge pumping.. pattern is gonna change.events LOL.. even with the postive NAO the atl. ridge just cannot get its western flank moved closer to east coast.. from what i can see Katia will leave a weakness for Maria to be and with possible Nate heading toward the NE it means even a further east recurve of Maria.. thou the NE island my see some affect..it seems like each Cape Verde storm is curving further east with each system..my opinion for whats its worth i find it very hard for any Cape Verde system to make it to the east coast this year.. any landfall will come from the Gulf or Caribbean Member Since: Ottobre 28, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 101

736. Tazmanian 08:06 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting emcf30: Taz, I have a feeling your going to be busy with your list for the next few weeks. yup Member Since: Maggio 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111355

737. beell 08:06 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Now that some of the convection has gusted out (outflow-dominant), 96L seems to have decent sized mid-levels-covering most of the BOC. click for loop Member Since: Settembre 11, 2007 Posts: 125 Comments: 12884

738. Drakoen 08:07 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
I leave for class and four hours later we have this lol. Member Since: Ottobre 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

739. Patrap 08:07 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111579

740. Tazmanian 08:09 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting Drakoen: I leave for class and four hours later we have this lol. and other wave be hid it Member Since: Maggio 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111355

741. tropicfreak 08:10 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting lennit: what is amazing is this year again with the persistant trof off the east coast.. it never goes away it constantly reloads and recurves. i know everyone is waiting for ridge pumping.. pattern is gonna change.events LOL.. even with the postive NAO the atl. ridge just cannot get its western flank moved closer to east coast.. from what i can see Katia will leave a weakness for Maria to be and with possible Nate heading toward the NE it means even a further east recurve of Maria.. thou the NE island my see some affect..it seems like each Cape Verde storm is curving further east with each system..my opinion for whats its worth i find it very hard for any Cape Verde system to make it to the east coast this year.. any landfall will come from the Gulf or Caribbean Explain how Irene got into the east coast. Member Since: Settembre 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6566

742. TropicalAnalystwx13 08:10 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting Drakoen: I leave for class and four hours later we have this lol. Everything happens in the tropics when you leave. Happens to me also, lol. Member Since: Luglio 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25322

743. wunderweatherman123 08:10 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting Levi32: What's the name of this series? I haven't seen moose in anything but nature shows lol. Elks are generally told apart by their high-pitched bay, but in terms of looks, they are generally lighter/grayer than moose. hey levi i saw your tidbit and i want to ask, is there a way for 95L to sneak further south and take an irene track or is it 100% guranteed he recurves? Member Since: Agosto 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 833

744. TropicalAnalystwx13 08:11 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting lennit: what is amazing is this year again with the persistant trof off the east coast.. it never goes away it constantly reloads and recurves. i know everyone is waiting for ridge pumping.. pattern is gonna change.events LOL.. even with the postive NAO the atl. ridge just cannot get its western flank moved closer to east coast.. from what i can see Katia will leave a weakness for Maria to be and with possible Nate heading toward the NE it means even a further east recurve of Maria.. thou the NE island my see some affect..it seems like each Cape Verde storm is curving further east with each system..my opinion for whats its worth i find it very hard for any Cape Verde system to make it to the east coast this year.. any landfall will come from the Gulf or Caribbean I agree...With the very last sentence only. Member Since: Luglio 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25322

745. lennit 08:12 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting tropicfreak: Explain how Irene got into the east coast. my mistake didn't finish.. meant to say from here on out about the Cape verde storms Member Since: Ottobre 28, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 101

746. BaltimoreBrian 08:12 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Northern Exposure opening credits. Moose I think. Member Since: Agosto 9, 2011 Posts: 25 Comments: 3357

747. Matt74 08:12 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy: Okay.. this hurricane season is getting ridiculous. We're about to see Maria.. and its only September 6th. JEEZ, in terms of named storms this is exactly how it felt in 2005, we were loosing count with the storms forming left and right. And 96L looks like in the next few days it will try to become Nate. Not saying i want landfalls, but it doesn't feel the same because 05 had so many landfalls. Member Since: Giugno 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 203

748. tropicfreak 08:14 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting Tazmanian: and other wave be hid it Why do people keep forgetting we have another wave behind TD 14 taz? LOL this season is just too busy for me to keep up. Member Since: Settembre 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6566

749. Drakoen 08:15 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
It is likely we will see two additional named storms over the next couple of days. Member Since: Ottobre 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

750. cyclonekid 08:15 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Click on the images to make them larger Maps will be issued on Tropical Depression Fourteen and Invest 96L after 5pm EDT *Map Typo: On Hurricane Katia's map, the time is wrong. It's the 2pm Intermediate Advisory map.* Member Since: Luglio 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1629

751. robert88 08:16 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting tropicfreak: Explain how Irene got into the east coast. Pure luck and timing. This pattern is still in 2010 mode imo Member Since: Maggio 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 877

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