Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Texas fires will diminish today; Lee's rains set all-time records

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 01:27 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011

+32

East Texas' dangerous fires continued to rage out of control yesterday, thanks to gusty north winds associated with the passage of a cold front and the remnant circulation of Tropical Storm Lee. Since Saturday, wildfires have torched over 500 homes in East Texas and killed two people. At Austin Bergstrom Airport, sustained winds of 20 - 25 mph, gusting to 30 - 35 mph blew much of the day yesterday. Tropical Storm Lee's remnants didn't bring any clouds or moisture to Austin yesterday, and the temperature climbed to 91°, with a humidity of just 11%. With the region enduring it's driest 1-year drought on record, yesterday's heat, dryness, and winds resulted in critical fire conditions. The forecast today for Austin is much better--winds will be only 5 - 10 mph, which should give firefighters the upper hand in many of the blazes, despite low humidities that will be in the 15 - 25% range. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is not predicting that critical fire weather conditions will return during the remainder of the week. You can monitor today's fire activity by using our wundermap for Austin with the fire layer turned on.

Figure 1. True-color image taken by NASA's Aqua satellite of the the fires burning near Austin, Texas on September 5, 2011. Image credit: NASA.

Video 1. Video shot by a motorist on Highway 21 near Austin, Texas of the smoke from the fires that raced through Bastrop County on September 4, 2011.The highway closes and the motorist is forced to turn around.

Texas' unprecedented heat
As I reported in yesterday's post, there has never been a Texas summer hotter than the summer of 2011. The summer of 2011 now holds every major heat record for the city of Austin, including most 100° days (67 so far), hottest month in recorded history (August, breaking the previous record by a remarkable 2.1°), hottest summer (by 1.1°), and hottest day in history (112°F, tied with Sep, 5, 2000.) As wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt documents in his latest blog post, the situation is similar across the rest of the state. Seventeen major cities in Texas recorded their hottest summer on record in 2011. Most of these stations had records extending back more than 100 years, and several of the records were smashed by an amazing 3.4°F--at Lubbock and at Wichita Falls. Neighboring states also experienced unprecedented heat, with Oklahoma recording America's hottest month by any state in recorded history during July, and Shreveport, Louisiana breaking its record for hottest month by 3°F in August. Mr. Burt commented to me: " I do not believe I have ever seen a site with a long period of record, like Shreveport, where records go back to 1874, break its warmest single month on record by an astonishing 3°. This is unheard of. Usually when a site breaks its single month temperature record, we are talking about tenths of a degree, rarely a whole degree, let alone 3 degrees! Hard to believe, frankly." Texas has also had its worst fire season on record, with over 3.5 million acres burned this year, and it's driest 1-year period in recorded history.

Figure 2. Observed soil moisture for Sunday Sep 4, 2011. Soil moisture is expressed in percent, with 50% being a historically average soil moisture level. Very dry soils, with moistures in the driest 1% - 30% in history (red and orange colors), were present over much of the south, where Lee dropped its heaviest rains. These dry soils have limited flooding damage. Image credit: N OAA Climate Prediction Center.

Heavy rains from Lee create significant flooding
Tropical Storm Lee is no more, but its remnants are marching slowly northeastwards along a stalled cold front, bringing torrential rains. Jackson, Mississippi received 11.68" in a 24 hour period yesterday, which is that city's heaviest 24-hour rainfall on record, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt. Their previous record was 8.54", set April 11 -12, 1979. Fortunately, Jackson was in severe drought, and the dry soils were able to absorb a significant amount of rain before the local rivers began flooding. The Pearl River at Jackson rose above flood stage this morning, and is expected to crest at moderate flood stage late this week. Chattanooga, Tennessee also set its record for the wettest 24-hour period in its history, with 9.85" falling yesterday. The previous record was 7.61", set on March 30, 1886. Again, the dry soils that were present before the event started will help keep river flooding in the minor to moderate range on area rivers. Soils are at near-average moisture levels in Central Pennsylvania, where Lee's remnants are expected to drop over seven inches of rain over the next two days. These rains should cause moderate and possibly major flooding in Pennsylvania. Also of concern is the potential for tornadoes today. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has logged 25 tornado reports over the past three days from Lee, including three near Atlanta, Georgia yesterday. More tornadoes are likely today over North Carolina, Southern Virginia, and Northern South Carolina, where SPC is predicting a "Slight Risk" of severe weather.

Lee's heaviest rain amounts, by state, as of 4 am CDT today:

Holden, LA: 15.43"
Florence, MS: 13.45"
Tillman's Corner, AL: 11.74"
Milton, FL: 10.03"
Chattanooga, TN: 9.85"
Rome, GA: 5.70"
Roanoake, VA: 4.30"
Bluefield, WV: 3.14"
Bridge City, TX: 3.12"
Flatwoods, KY: 3.67"

Figure 3. Predicted rainfall for the 2-day period 8am EDT Tuesday - 8 am EDT Thursday, Sep 8, 2011. Lee's remnants are expected to bring a large swath of 7+ inches of rain into Central Pennsylvania. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Hurricane Katia
Hurricane Katia strengthened this morning into the Atlantic's first Category 4 hurricane of the year, but has slipped slightly in intensity due to an eyewall replacement cycle, and is now a strong Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. Latest satellite loops show that the eye has now disappeared, and the hurricane is having trouble maintaining its eyewall in the face of moderate wind shear of 10 - 15 knots on its northwest side. Continued weakening to a Category 2 storm is a possibility, though Katia will probably re-strengthen later today or on Wednesday once it manages to build a new eyewall.

The computer models continue to agree that a low pressure system over the Eastern U.S. associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee will turn Katia to the north well before the storm reaches the U.S. As the storm moves northwards past North Carolina, Katia will get caught up in west-to-east moving winds associated with the jet stream, and taken northeastwards out to sea. No land areas are in Katia's cone of uncertainty, and Katia's outer rainbands should remain just offshore from North Carolina, New England, and the Canadian Maritime provinces at the point of closest approach. The main impact of Katia will be high surf leading to beach erosion and dangerous rip currents. Long period swells from Katia have arrived at the coast, and the entire U.S. East Coast will receive an extended multi-day period of high surf. The East Coast is lucky that Tropical Storm Lee came along, since Lee helped to create the steering pattern that will keep Katia from hitting the U.S.

Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Katia.

95L off the coast of Africa
A large tropical wave with plenty of intense thunderstorm activity and spin is located about 700 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa. This wave, Invest 95L, is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and is headed west to west-northwest at 15 mph. Recent satellite loops show that 95L has an elongated circulation center; this will need to tighten up into a more circular shape before the storm can become a tropical depression. Water vapor satellite images show that 95L is embedded in a very moist environment. Ocean temperatures are near 28°C, which is 1.5°C above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed for a tropical storm to form. With wind shear predicted to remain low to moderate the next four days, the atmosphere expected to stay moist, and ocean temperatures predicted to gradually warm, I don't see anything that would keep 95L from becoming a tropical depression in 1 - 2 days. NHC is giving 95L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. There is a large amount of model support for development of 95L into a tropical depression, with most of the models predicting it could be a weak tropical storm by the time it reaches the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Friday or Saturday. Residents of the islands should anticipate the possibility of tropical storm conditions arriving as early as Friday. Most of the models predict 95L will follow a path near or slightly north of the Northern Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico, then curve northwestwards, on a trajectory that would likely miss the Bahamas.

New Gulf of Mexico disturbance
A cold front swept into the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas behind Tropical Storm Lee yesterday morning, and has stalled out along a line from Tampa, Florida to Mexico's Bay of Campeche in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Heavy thunderstorms have begun to build along the tail end of this front in the Bay of Campeche, but are still not very concentrated or organized. Most of the computer models develop a tropical depression in the Bay of Campeche late this week, and these same models did very well at anticipating the formation of Tropical Storm Lee in the Gulf of Mexico last week. Given the moderate wind shear, warm waters, and presence of an old cold front to serve as a nucleus for development, a new Gulf of Mexico tropical depression by late this week appears likely. The path such a storm might take would depend strongly on where the center forms. A more northerly formation location near the top of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula would likely result in a northward motion towards the Florida Panhandle. This is the solution of the European Center Model (ECMWF), which takes a weak tropical storm with a central pressure of 1000 mb into the Florida Panhandle on Sunday. A more southerly formation location might lead to the storm getting trapped in a region of weak steering currents, resulting in a slow, erratic motion in the southern Gulf. This is the solution of the latest runs of the GFS, NOGAPS, and UKMET models. NHC is giving this disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday.

Figure 5. Volunteers with Portlight.org disaster relief charity take a break from their Hurricane Irene relief efforts in Pink Hill, NC. From their latest blog post:Please help as you can. And please remember in your thoughts and prayers those in the path of Irene.

Jeff Masters

Crockett Texas Wildfire 2 (Moussifer)

A tree becomes a torch. We could hear the fire's roar.

Bastrop's Burnin (CenTexWeatherGal)

This HUGE fire has already burned over 500 homes and over 30,000 acres. It is 0, yes 0 percent contained and stretches 16 miles long and 6 miles wide. The smoke plume can be seen on dopler radar. This fire is actually to the north east of Bastrop which is east of Austin.

Magnolia Fire (shanzi)

Mighty close!

flood (lazzyhazy1)

Categories: Fire Flood Hurricane

Permalink | A A A

Top of Page

Reader Comments

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200

Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 551 - 601

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 — Blog Index

551. scott39 06:40 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting Patrap: 9 killed in IHOP shooting, 2 were National Guardsman in Uniform. Carson City, Nevada Just terrible, You arent safe anywhere anymore. RIP....... and may thier family find peace in time. Member Since: Giugno 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6221

552. FtMyersgal 06:40 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting Hurlo: Is the radar from NOLA still broken? Member Since: Settembre 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1046

553. sunlinepr 06:40 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Member Since: Agosto 2, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8466

554. nrtiwlnvragn 06:40 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
UKMET Office forecasts the storm in the GOM to stall for 2-3 days at ~25N ~92W NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 19.6N 92.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 07.09.2011 19.6N 92.7W MODERATE 00UTC 08.09.2011 20.2N 92.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.09.2011 20.5N 92.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 09.09.2011 21.0N 92.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2011 21.5N 92.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.09.2011 22.4N 92.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.09.2011 23.5N 92.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.09.2011 24.5N 92.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2011 24.9N 91.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2011 24.7N 91.9W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.09.2011 24.4N 91.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY Member Since: Settembre 23, 2005 Posts: 12 Comments: 9088

555. kshipre1 06:41 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
good point, thanks Levi I was just asking because Rob Lightbown at Crown Weather was indicating a few weeks back in his tropical weather discussion that a strong and persistent high pressure pattern is supposed to occur for about two weeks from mid to late september Member Since: Luglio 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130

556. sunlinepr 06:41 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Member Since: Agosto 2, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8466

557. MNhockeymama 06:41 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting jpsb: lol, sorry I thought it was readily apparent that the context was of the debate, you are however technically correct. Although I have yet to meet or read of anyone in favor of global warming. But then I don't read Russian so I suppose there could be a few folks in Siberia that would not mind a little warming :) In January I'll be wishing for a little global warming here in MN, I'm sure. LOL Member Since: Settembre 4, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 124

558. 69Viking 06:42 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting Levi32: Euro says uh oh: Says another crappy weakend for us in the Panhandle of FL again! Just had 3 days of high winds and heavy rain compliments of Lee, send the damn thing to Texas where they need it please. Offically recorded 9 inches of rain at my house over the 3 day holiday weekend, fun, fun, NOT! No drought here anymore, go find Texas I repeat, go find Texas! Member Since: Agosto 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2268

559. Levi32 06:43 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
12z UKMET keeps the gulf system fairly far south through Day 6, and its forecast for 95L actually makes sense for once. Member Since: novembre 24, 2005 Posts: 593 Comments: 25600

560. sunlinepr 06:44 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Member Since: Agosto 2, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8466

561. 69Viking 06:44 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting RitaEvac: More dry air and winds to start another weekend deja vu fire storm in TX all over again if this pans out Trust me, I'd rather the rain head your way, we're soggy enough from Lee already! Member Since: Agosto 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2268

562. scott39 06:44 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn: UKMET Office forecasts the storm in the GOM to stall for 2-3 days at ~25N ~92W NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 19.6N 92.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 07.09.2011 19.6N 92.7W MODERATE 00UTC 08.09.2011 20.2N 92.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.09.2011 20.5N 92.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 09.09.2011 21.0N 92.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2011 21.5N 92.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.09.2011 22.4N 92.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.09.2011 23.5N 92.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.09.2011 24.5N 92.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2011 24.9N 91.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2011 24.7N 91.9W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.09.2011 24.4N 91.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY what is Moderate Intense and strong mean in wind speed? Member Since: Giugno 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6221

563. TexasHurricane 06:44 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting 69Viking: Says another crappy weakend for us in the Panhandle of FL again! Just had 3 days of high winds and heavy rain compliments of Lee, send the damn thing to Texas where they need it please. Offically recorded 9 inches of rain at my house over the 3 day holiday weekend, fun, fun, NOT! No drought here anymore, go find Texas I repeat, go find Texas! Kinda funny isn't it. What you call crappy, we would call a celebration. :) I'm with ya, PLEASE find TEXAS!!!! Member Since: Luglio 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811

564. JLPR2 06:45 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Hiya TD 14 BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_RENUMBER_al952011_al142011.ren FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201109061830 Member Since: Settembre 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7526

565. TexasHurricane 06:46 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting Levi32: 12z UKMET keeps the gulf system fairly far south through Day 6, and its forecast for 95L actually makes sense for once. Maybe one of them can find us..... Member Since: Luglio 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811

566. MississippiWx 06:46 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
I took a few pictures of Lee's flooding behind my house. We have a creek that runs from a big lake to behind our house (my house is not pictured...it wasn't flooded like this one and our house actually had no water issues). When the lake gets full, it goes out of the spillway into our creek. Well, the culverts that run underneath the road are too small to handle a lot of water and this is the result when they are overloaded: Member Since: Luglio 15, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 8889

567. Neapolitan 06:46 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
ATCF says Katia is no longer a major: AL, 12, 2011090618, , BEST, 0, 273N, 664W, 95, 963, HU, 64, NEQ, 70, 60, 40, 50, 1012, 300, 55, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, KATIA, D, Member Since: novembre 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11284

568. Tazmanian 06:47 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
i see we now have TD 14 i wounder when will see 96L in the gulf Member Since: Maggio 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 111610

569. Some1Has2BtheRookie 06:47 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting jpsb: lol, sorry I thought it was readily apparent that the context was of the debate, you are however technically correct. Although I have yet to meet or read of anyone in favor of global warming. But then I don't read Russian so I suppose there could be a few folks in Siberia that would not mind a little warming :) Not a problem, jpsb, and I fully understood where you were coming from. I just wanted to make sure that you knew where I was coming from. I enjoy reading your posts and will always continue to do so. In addition, I would imagine that anyone or any entity that actually is pro AGW, would not want it to be publicly known. Just saying. Member Since: Agosto 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4129

570. scott39 06:47 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting Levi32: 12z UKMET keeps the gulf system fairly far south through Day 6, and its forecast for 95L actually makes sense for once. Looks like another Lee--- katia set up, but closer together this time. Member Since: Giugno 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6221

571. pensacolastorm 06:48 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting 69Viking: Says another crappy weakend for us in the Panhandle of FL again! Just had 3 days of high winds and heavy rain compliments of Lee, send the damn thing to Texas where they need it please. Offically recorded 9 inches of rain at my house over the 3 day holiday weekend, fun, fun, NOT! No drought here anymore, go find Texas I repeat, go find Texas! Texas or Mexico, I am trying to close on a house! Member Since: Luglio 30, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 170

572. Birthmark 06:48 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting Levi32: Because pressures have been very low over eastern North America lately, and thus the Caribbean has been dead quiet. However, as the air turns colder, it becomes denser and thus air pressures rise. This starts forcing more convergence (piling up of air) in the Caribbean, southern gulf, and Bahamas areas, promoting thunderstorm activity and making it likely that any tropical waves getting in there will try to develop. Thank you. So it takes a couple of weeks for this denser air to, um, pile up? Member Since: Ottobre 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1757

573. TexasHurricane 06:49 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting MississippiWx: I took a few pictures of Lee's flooding behind my house. We have a creek that runs from a big lake to behind our house (my house is not pictured...it wasn't flooded like this one and our house actually had no water issues). When the lake gets full, it goes out of the spillway into our creek. Well, the culverts that run underneath the road are too small to handle a lot of water and this is the result when they are overloaded: So sorry if your house got water in it (assuming yours did since the other house did). Believe me Texas would have loved to have taken all of that and probably more. Member Since: Luglio 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811

574. aprinz1979 06:49 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting Levi32: 12z UKMET keeps the gulf system fairly far south through Day 6, and its forecast for 95L actually makes sense for once. So Levi, if this were to pan out, would 95L go north and miss the CONUS because the GOM storm would make a ridge and provide a shield? Reason I ask is because you mentioned it when we had a similar scenario with Lee and Katia on the models. Member Since: Ottobre 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 262

575. nrtiwlnvragn 06:49 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting scott39: what is Moderate Intense and strong mean in wind speed? Unknown, the UKMET does not quantify it. Here is their statement: Explicit forecasts of maximum wind speed are not given as the model (at its current resolution) cannot resolve the wind field with sufficient detail. However, a qualitative indication of forecast wind strength is given based on the model's relative vorticity field (at the 850 hPa level). Link Member Since: Settembre 23, 2005 Posts: 12 Comments: 9088

576. JLPR2 06:49 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting Tazmanian: i see we now have TD 14 i wounder when will see 96L in the gulf Yeah and you said yesterday. All three 95L's have formed into storms this season. Member Since: Settembre 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7526

577. Jax82 06:49 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting Neapolitan: ATCF says Katia is no longer a major: AL, 12, 2011090618, , BEST, 0, 273N, 664W, 95, 963, HU, 64, NEQ, 70, 60, 40, 50, 1012, 300, 55, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, KATIA, D, It appears her Western Eyewall collapsed due to dry air, but thats just me. She continues to fire on her eastern side. Member Since: Settembre 2, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1261

578. scott39 06:49 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting TexasHurricane: Kinda funny isn't it. What you call crappy, we would call a celebration. :) I'm with ya, PLEASE find TEXAS!!!! Start your dancing and chanting now. It may work you never know :) Member Since: Giugno 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6221

579. scott39 06:51 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn: Unknown, the UKMET does not quantify it. Here is their statement: Explicit forecasts of maximum wind speed are not given as the model (at its current resolution) cannot resolve the wind field with sufficient detail. However, a qualitative indication of forecast wind strength is given based on the model's relative vorticity field (at the 850 hPa level). Link Thanks for that link. Member Since: Giugno 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6221

580. Neapolitan 06:52 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
...and 96L, in the BOC: BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al962011.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201109061850 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2011, DB, O, 2011090618, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL962011 AL, 96, 2011090518, , BEST, 0, 230N, 950W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 96, 2011090606, , BEST, 0, 215N, 943W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 96, 2011090612, , BEST, 0, 210N, 940W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 96, 2011090618, , BEST, 0, 206N, 938W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, Member Since: novembre 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11284

581. DFWjc 06:53 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting Patrap: Looks at the Heat in Texas on the Rainbow IR..sheesh Yesterday was nice here in North Texas, 85F and 10-15mph steady on the winds...Standing outside the Cowboys Stadium for four High School football games wasn't bad on Labor Day. It's amazing how this High has gone from New Mexico/Colorado to East Texas and finally hovering over West Texas. I can't remember in all the years living in Texas that a High has done that.... Member Since: Luglio 19, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 967

582. MississippiWx 06:54 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting Neapolitan: ...and 96L, in the BOC: BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al962011.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201109061850 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2011, DB, O, 2011090618, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL962011 AL, 96, 2011090518, , BEST, 0, 230N, 950W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 96, 2011090606, , BEST, 0, 215N, 943W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 96, 2011090612, , BEST, 0, 210N, 940W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 96, 2011090618, , BEST, 0, 206N, 938W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, Tis the season... Member Since: Luglio 15, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 8889

584. Tazmanian 06:55 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
by the way whats that be hid TD 14 Member Since: Maggio 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 111610

585. Levi32 06:55 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Member Since: novembre 24, 2005 Posts: 593 Comments: 25600

586. canehater1 06:55 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE MODELS ARE ALL INDICATING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL OF SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...AND THIS IS NOT AN UNREASONABLE SOLUTION BASED ON PAST HISTORY. THE REAL TRICK WILL BE IN THE TRACK/TIMING WHICH IS DEPENDENT ON THE LARGER SCALE RIDGE AND TROUGH PATTERN. EVEN THOUGH A NORTH TO NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF A LOW INTO THE NORTHERN GULF IS A POSSIBILITY...HAVE NOT INDICATED THAT IN THE WINDS AND SEAS AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE OBVIOUS UNCERTAINTY...BUT IS SOMETHING TO CONSIDER FOR LATER FORECASTS. 22/TD (From N.O. Fcst Discussion Marine Section) Member Since: Settembre 8, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 687

587. scott39 06:56 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Thanks to the ones who keep us updated! Member Since: Giugno 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6221

588. Gearsts 06:56 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting Neapolitan: ...and 96L, in the BOC: BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al962011.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201109061850 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2011, DB, O, 2011090618, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL962011 AL, 96, 2011090518, , BEST, 0, 230N, 950W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 96, 2011090606, , BEST, 0, 215N, 943W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 96, 2011090612, , BEST, 0, 210N, 940W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 96, 2011090618, , BEST, 0, 206N, 938W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, lol Member Since: Agosto 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2138

589. Gearsts 06:57 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting Levi32: Looks like shear is a big problem :( Member Since: Agosto 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2138

591. scott39 07:01 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Levi....What are your thoughts on the new invest in the BOC/S-GOM? TIA Member Since: Giugno 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6221

592. CCravey01 07:01 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Hey, can I ask a [possibly] stupid question? The area to right of Katia in this water vapor image...is that normal to see when there is a hurricane right in that vicinity? It has a real nice spin starting. Soooo, any answer/input? Please remember that I just enjoy weather, but don't have a clue as to how to deduce anything. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html Member Since: Agosto 24, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 18

593. yoboi 07:01 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting Tazmanian: by the way whats that be hid TD 14 i think it's water Member Since: Agosto 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2497

594. TampaTom 07:01 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
In other news - Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter images Apollo landing sites in high res From Apollo 12... Just STUNNING.... Member Since: Giugno 20, 2005 Posts: 22 Comments: 1049

595. PRweathercenter 07:02 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Invest 95 Discussion-Hurricane Katia-BOC disturbance

596. JLPR2 07:02 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
It seems that TD14's new burst of convection was enough to grant it Depression status. The old, displaced convection is dying out, plus it is almost d-min over the area. Member Since: Settembre 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7526

597. Some1Has2BtheRookie 07:03 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting TexasHurricane: So sorry if your house got water in it (assuming yours did since the other house did). Believe me Texas would have loved to have taken all of that and probably more. Uuummmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm, true. Just spread out over a larger area. I still remember that, "out of the frying pan and into the fire", thing we keep hearing about. Member Since: Agosto 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4129

598. IKE 07:03 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Not good..... Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

599. rmbjoe1954 07:04 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting Levi32: Yes...we are the "end of the road" here. It seems that a great many tourists enjoy gazing into the abyss that lies beyond the end though. Hi levi- Can you see Russia from your front porch also? Just kidding.......I am in Port St. Lucie, East Central florida. Now I will pay attention to the models regarding TD14. Do you still feel it can be another rainmaker(or worse) for the northern Gulf Coast? Thanks. Member Since: Giugno 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 751

600. RayRayfromLa 07:04 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Hi everyone, real busy at work on this Monday and unable to read through the posts. Was shocked to see the predicted storms out there. are any of the predicted systems talked about going to hit Louisiana or does any model show that. I know they changed hourly, but just concerned. Lee flooded our camp 6 inches and waiting for water to clear out this week to clean up. thanks in advance for any updates. Member Since: Agosto 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 89

601. RitaEvac 07:05 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting emcf30: CNN is reporting 3 killed 6 injured. What the heck is wrong with people these days. It's only begun, just wait when uncle Sam has to bankrupt, jobs go poof, it's gonna be total chaos out there. and the weather is coming on board for the ride or say grand finale... Member Since: Luglio 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 8949

Viewing: 551 - 601

Top of Page

New Comment

Community Standards Policy Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

About JeffMasters