Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Texas fires will diminish today; Lee's rains set all-time records

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 01:27 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011

+32

East Texas' dangerous fires continued to rage out of control yesterday, thanks to gusty north winds associated with the passage of a cold front and the remnant circulation of Tropical Storm Lee. Since Saturday, wildfires have torched over 500 homes in East Texas and killed two people. At Austin Bergstrom Airport, sustained winds of 20 - 25 mph, gusting to 30 - 35 mph blew much of the day yesterday. Tropical Storm Lee's remnants didn't bring any clouds or moisture to Austin yesterday, and the temperature climbed to 91°, with a humidity of just 11%. With the region enduring it's driest 1-year drought on record, yesterday's heat, dryness, and winds resulted in critical fire conditions. The forecast today for Austin is much better--winds will be only 5 - 10 mph, which should give firefighters the upper hand in many of the blazes, despite low humidities that will be in the 15 - 25% range. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is not predicting that critical fire weather conditions will return during the remainder of the week. You can monitor today's fire activity by using our wundermap for Austin with the fire layer turned on.

Figure 1. True-color image taken by NASA's Aqua satellite of the the fires burning near Austin, Texas on September 5, 2011. Image credit: NASA.

Video 1. Video shot by a motorist on Highway 21 near Austin, Texas of the smoke from the fires that raced through Bastrop County on September 4, 2011.The highway closes and the motorist is forced to turn around.

Texas' unprecedented heat
As I reported in yesterday's post, there has never been a Texas summer hotter than the summer of 2011. The summer of 2011 now holds every major heat record for the city of Austin, including most 100° days (67 so far), hottest month in recorded history (August, breaking the previous record by a remarkable 2.1°), hottest summer (by 1.1°), and hottest day in history (112°F, tied with Sep, 5, 2000.) As wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt documents in his latest blog post, the situation is similar across the rest of the state. Seventeen major cities in Texas recorded their hottest summer on record in 2011. Most of these stations had records extending back more than 100 years, and several of the records were smashed by an amazing 3.4°F--at Lubbock and at Wichita Falls. Neighboring states also experienced unprecedented heat, with Oklahoma recording America's hottest month by any state in recorded history during July, and Shreveport, Louisiana breaking its record for hottest month by 3°F in August. Mr. Burt commented to me: " I do not believe I have ever seen a site with a long period of record, like Shreveport, where records go back to 1874, break its warmest single month on record by an astonishing 3°. This is unheard of. Usually when a site breaks its single month temperature record, we are talking about tenths of a degree, rarely a whole degree, let alone 3 degrees! Hard to believe, frankly." Texas has also had its worst fire season on record, with over 3.5 million acres burned this year, and it's driest 1-year period in recorded history.

Figure 2. Observed soil moisture for Sunday Sep 4, 2011. Soil moisture is expressed in percent, with 50% being a historically average soil moisture level. Very dry soils, with moistures in the driest 1% - 30% in history (red and orange colors), were present over much of the south, where Lee dropped its heaviest rains. These dry soils have limited flooding damage. Image credit: N OAA Climate Prediction Center.

Heavy rains from Lee create significant flooding
Tropical Storm Lee is no more, but its remnants are marching slowly northeastwards along a stalled cold front, bringing torrential rains. Jackson, Mississippi received 11.68" in a 24 hour period yesterday, which is that city's heaviest 24-hour rainfall on record, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt. Their previous record was 8.54", set April 11 -12, 1979. Fortunately, Jackson was in severe drought, and the dry soils were able to absorb a significant amount of rain before the local rivers began flooding. The Pearl River at Jackson rose above flood stage this morning, and is expected to crest at moderate flood stage late this week. Chattanooga, Tennessee also set its record for the wettest 24-hour period in its history, with 9.85" falling yesterday. The previous record was 7.61", set on March 30, 1886. Again, the dry soils that were present before the event started will help keep river flooding in the minor to moderate range on area rivers. Soils are at near-average moisture levels in Central Pennsylvania, where Lee's remnants are expected to drop over seven inches of rain over the next two days. These rains should cause moderate and possibly major flooding in Pennsylvania. Also of concern is the potential for tornadoes today. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has logged 25 tornado reports over the past three days from Lee, including three near Atlanta, Georgia yesterday. More tornadoes are likely today over North Carolina, Southern Virginia, and Northern South Carolina, where SPC is predicting a "Slight Risk" of severe weather.

Lee's heaviest rain amounts, by state, as of 4 am CDT today:

Holden, LA: 15.43"
Florence, MS: 13.45"
Tillman's Corner, AL: 11.74"
Milton, FL: 10.03"
Chattanooga, TN: 9.85"
Rome, GA: 5.70"
Roanoake, VA: 4.30"
Bluefield, WV: 3.14"
Bridge City, TX: 3.12"
Flatwoods, KY: 3.67"

Figure 3. Predicted rainfall for the 2-day period 8am EDT Tuesday - 8 am EDT Thursday, Sep 8, 2011. Lee's remnants are expected to bring a large swath of 7+ inches of rain into Central Pennsylvania. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Hurricane Katia
Hurricane Katia strengthened this morning into the Atlantic's first Category 4 hurricane of the year, but has slipped slightly in intensity due to an eyewall replacement cycle, and is now a strong Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. Latest satellite loops show that the eye has now disappeared, and the hurricane is having trouble maintaining its eyewall in the face of moderate wind shear of 10 - 15 knots on its northwest side. Continued weakening to a Category 2 storm is a possibility, though Katia will probably re-strengthen later today or on Wednesday once it manages to build a new eyewall.

The computer models continue to agree that a low pressure system over the Eastern U.S. associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee will turn Katia to the north well before the storm reaches the U.S. As the storm moves northwards past North Carolina, Katia will get caught up in west-to-east moving winds associated with the jet stream, and taken northeastwards out to sea. No land areas are in Katia's cone of uncertainty, and Katia's outer rainbands should remain just offshore from North Carolina, New England, and the Canadian Maritime provinces at the point of closest approach. The main impact of Katia will be high surf leading to beach erosion and dangerous rip currents. Long period swells from Katia have arrived at the coast, and the entire U.S. East Coast will receive an extended multi-day period of high surf. The East Coast is lucky that Tropical Storm Lee came along, since Lee helped to create the steering pattern that will keep Katia from hitting the U.S.

Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Katia.

95L off the coast of Africa
A large tropical wave with plenty of intense thunderstorm activity and spin is located about 700 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa. This wave, Invest 95L, is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and is headed west to west-northwest at 15 mph. Recent satellite loops show that 95L has an elongated circulation center; this will need to tighten up into a more circular shape before the storm can become a tropical depression. Water vapor satellite images show that 95L is embedded in a very moist environment. Ocean temperatures are near 28°C, which is 1.5°C above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed for a tropical storm to form. With wind shear predicted to remain low to moderate the next four days, the atmosphere expected to stay moist, and ocean temperatures predicted to gradually warm, I don't see anything that would keep 95L from becoming a tropical depression in 1 - 2 days. NHC is giving 95L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. There is a large amount of model support for development of 95L into a tropical depression, with most of the models predicting it could be a weak tropical storm by the time it reaches the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Friday or Saturday. Residents of the islands should anticipate the possibility of tropical storm conditions arriving as early as Friday. Most of the models predict 95L will follow a path near or slightly north of the Northern Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico, then curve northwestwards, on a trajectory that would likely miss the Bahamas.

New Gulf of Mexico disturbance
A cold front swept into the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas behind Tropical Storm Lee yesterday morning, and has stalled out along a line from Tampa, Florida to Mexico's Bay of Campeche in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Heavy thunderstorms have begun to build along the tail end of this front in the Bay of Campeche, but are still not very concentrated or organized. Most of the computer models develop a tropical depression in the Bay of Campeche late this week, and these same models did very well at anticipating the formation of Tropical Storm Lee in the Gulf of Mexico last week. Given the moderate wind shear, warm waters, and presence of an old cold front to serve as a nucleus for development, a new Gulf of Mexico tropical depression by late this week appears likely. The path such a storm might take would depend strongly on where the center forms. A more northerly formation location near the top of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula would likely result in a northward motion towards the Florida Panhandle. This is the solution of the European Center Model (ECMWF), which takes a weak tropical storm with a central pressure of 1000 mb into the Florida Panhandle on Sunday. A more southerly formation location might lead to the storm getting trapped in a region of weak steering currents, resulting in a slow, erratic motion in the southern Gulf. This is the solution of the latest runs of the GFS, NOGAPS, and UKMET models. NHC is giving this disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday.

Figure 5. Volunteers with Portlight.org disaster relief charity take a break from their Hurricane Irene relief efforts in Pink Hill, NC. From their latest blog post:Please help as you can. And please remember in your thoughts and prayers those in the path of Irene.

Jeff Masters

Crockett Texas Wildfire 2 (Moussifer)

A tree becomes a torch. We could hear the fire's roar.

Bastrop's Burnin (CenTexWeatherGal)

This HUGE fire has already burned over 500 homes and over 30,000 acres. It is 0, yes 0 percent contained and stretches 16 miles long and 6 miles wide. The smoke plume can be seen on dopler radar. This fire is actually to the north east of Bastrop which is east of Austin.

Magnolia Fire (shanzi)

Mighty close!

flood (lazzyhazy1)

Categories: Fire Flood Hurricane

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1. Minnemike 01:29 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
thanks for the update! a lot to digest after a nice long holiday weekend.. Member Since: Luglio 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1266

2. tatoprweather 01:31 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Thank you Dr. Masters. Member Since: Aprile 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 136

3. Neapolitan 01:32 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Absent a huge, long-lasting rain event--or several of them--I can't envision the drought situation improving in Texas, so this winter's bitterly cold, bitterly dry, bitterly fierce winds will almost certainly bring about more of these type of fire events. Very sad... Member Since: novembre 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11308

5. luigi18 01:36 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Thanks Doc i hope 95L will be passing away from us here in Puerto Rico Member Since: Settembre 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 452

7. weathermanwannabe 01:37 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Thank You Dr. Lee has produced lots of flooding and damage in one form or another all over the US (and still more to come from the the combined front/trailing edge) so I am hoping that 95L will stay out to sea. Lee's remnants soaked Northern Florida for the past several days and plenty of fallen and snapped trees and limbs (some on homes and cars) and tornadoes when the front came through yesterday. Mother Nature will do what she wants but we don't need any more canes for the US this year (with the exception of a grave need for some tropical moisture for Texas). So, I am basically hoping for one more good soaking TS to move West into Texas but nothing more. Member Since: Agosto 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 6863

8. CloudGatherer 01:38 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Thanks for the update, as always. I'm relieved to see Katia behaving herself and recurving out to sea even as she weakens. If she's organizing a new eyewall, she's being subtle about it. And it looks like the next 72 hours could deliver Maria out of 95L, and Nate in the GOM / Bay of Campeche. Heck of a season. Member Since: Agosto 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 454

10. Caner 01:41 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Convection building in the BOC. NAM is developing this into a major storm within 48 hours. Member Since: Giugno 27, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 179

14. beell 01:44 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting Neapolitan: Absent a huge, long-lasting rain event--or several of them--I can't envision the drought situation improving in Texas, so this winter's bitterly cold, bitterly dry, bitterly fierce winds will almost certainly bring about more of these type of fire events. Very sad... La Nina "bitterly", normal "bitterly", or a warming planet "bitterly"? : - ) Member Since: Settembre 11, 2007 Posts: 126 Comments: 13069

15. MissNadia 01:44 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Good Morning Most of Eastern NC is under a Tornado Watch ! Member Since: Luglio 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2698

16. WxLogic 01:46 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Thank Dr. Member Since: Agosto 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4721

17. aspectre 01:46 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
H.Katia's_12pmGMT_ATCF : Starting 5Sept_12pmGMT and ending 6Sept_12pmGMT The 4 eastern line-segments represent HurricaneKatia's path and the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection. Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6amGMT then 12pmGMT : H.Katia's travel-speed was 10mph(16.1k/h) on a heading of 305.0degrees(NW) H.Katia was headed toward passage over MyrtleBeach,SouthCarolina ~3days19hours from now Copy&paste 24.2n62.6w-24.8n63.4w, 24.8n63.4w-25.6n64.0w, 25.6n64.0w-26.2n64.8w, 26.2n64.8w-26.7n65.6w, bda, 26.2n64.8w-33.734n78.826w, myr into the GreatCircleMapper for more info The previous mapping (for 6Sept_6amGMT) Member Since: Agosto 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4855

19. CaribBoy 01:47 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
95L a weak TS while passing near the Northern Leewards looks pretty conservative. Member Since: Ottobre 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2982

21. StormHype 01:48 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting P451: 12HR WV Imagery With that huge pocket of dry air surging southward you would have to wonder about the impact it could have on the potential BOC disturbance. It looks like it may just run this blob off onto shore in the southern BoC and then end of story. Member Since: Maggio 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1172

23. CaribBoy 01:49 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting weatherjr: May be NEXT year the islands receive another impact from a strong hurricane, but this year I really doubth it, even from a weak tropical storm from CV. What about EMILY, and IRENE... both affected the islands Member Since: Ottobre 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2982

25. StormHype 01:50 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting aspectre: H.Katia's_12pmGMT_ATCF : Starting 5Sept_12pmGMT and ending 6Sept_12pmGMT The 4 eastern line-segments represent HurricaneKatia's path and the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection. Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6amGMT then 12pmGMT : H.Katia's travel-speed was 10mph(16.1k/h) on a heading of 305.0degrees(NW) H.Katia was headed toward passage over MyrtleBeach,SouthCarolina ~3days19hours from now Copy&paste 24.2n62.6w-24.8n63.4w, 24.8n63.4w-25.6n64.0w, 25.6n64.0w-26.2n64.8w, 26.2n64.8w-26.7n65.6w, bda, 26.2n64.8w-33.734n78.826w, myr into the GreatCircleMapper for more info The previous mapping (for 6Sept_6amGMT) Why would anyone ever use straight line projection for a forecast? Katia is not a bowling ball. This post is hype/noise IMO. Member Since: Maggio 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1172

26. AussieStorm 01:50 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting P451: 12HR WV Imagery With that huge pocket of dry air surging southward you would have to wonder about the impact it could have on the potential BOC disturbance. It will knock it into the next hemisphere. Member Since: Settembre 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13795

27. overwash12 01:50 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting weatherjr: Back at the evening... Ok,looking forward to it! Member Since: Giugno 24, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1056

28. putintang3 01:50 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
HELP REPOSTING TO HELP OUT) Our friends in magnolia are in the direct path of the fire and had to let their 2 horses go (with their phone number on them) bc the fire was behind their house and we couldn't get to their house with the trailer. Please anyone, if you find a bay mare and a sorrel gelding, please call the number on the horses or 361-227-7735 Member Since: Agosto 29, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 300

31. JamesSA 01:53 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting P451: 12HR WV Imagery With that huge pocket of dry air surging southward you would have to wonder about the impact it could have on the potential BOC disturbance. A front like that usually will stall and wash out before moving much further South than that, but that is some REALLY dry air. We shall see! Member Since: Agosto 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 579

32. AussieStorm 01:54 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting aspectre: H.Katia's_12pmGMT_ATCF : Starting 5Sept_12pmGMT and ending 6Sept_12pmGMT The 4 eastern line-segments represent HurricaneKatia's path and the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection. Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6amGMT then 12pmGMT : H.Katia's travel-speed was 10mph(16.1k/h) on a heading of 305.0degrees(NW) H.Katia was headed toward passage over MyrtleBeach,SouthCarolina ~3days19hours from now Copy&paste 24.2n62.6w-24.8n63.4w, 24.8n63.4w-25.6n64.0w, 25.6n64.0w-26.2n64.8w, 26.2n64.8w-26.7n65.6w, bda, 26.2n64.8w-33.734n78.826w, myr into the GreatCircleMapper for more info The previous mapping (for 6Sept_6amGMT) This may well be interesting to some people but your just using the XTRP model as guidance. As Dr Masters has already stated, the low associated with ex-Lee will turn Katia before it reaches CONUS. Member Since: Settembre 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13795

33. StormHype 01:55 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting Caner: Convection building in the BOC. NAM is developing this into a major storm within 48 hours. Not buying into the NAM story. Way too much dry air blasting south with that front. The blob may even gag to death within 24 hours if that presses farther south. Check out the GOM water vapor. Looks like Nov. Member Since: Maggio 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1172

35. Neapolitan 01:56 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting beell: La Nina "bitterly", normal "bitterly", or a warming planet "bitterly"? : - ) A) If all your livestock has died and all your crops have withered to brown nubs and your house and barn have burnt to the ground, I doubt whether you'll really care one way or the other. However, B) Those winter winds are always bitter--but the connections between what's going on in Texas (and elsewhere) and a warming planet are at this point far too obvious to ignore. Member Since: novembre 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11308

36. MysteryMeat 01:57 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Aspectre isn't actually predicting where the storm is going. It's just context as to what land mass the storm would hit on its current bearing. It paints a picture on where the storm lines up, and right now it lines up with Myrtle Beach. Clearly that's not going to happen, but that's not the point. Member Since: Settembre 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 253

37. uptxcoast 02:00 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
You can smell the smoke as far as Houston. The air quality is terrible with a smoky haze covering the city. Just terrible. The Tomball Fire Department is looking for donations of bottled water, energy bars, Gatorade, etc and I am sure the rest of the Fire Departments are looking for the same donations. Most of these fire's first responders are all Volunteer Firemen. God Bless the Firemen and Firewomen risking their lives to stop these terrible fires. Member Since: Settembre 23, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 226

39. Minnemike 02:05 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting MysteryMeat: Aspectre isn't actually predicting where the storm is going. It's just context as to what land mass the storm would hit on its current bearing. It paints a picture on where the storm lines up, and right now it lines up with Myrtle Beach. Clearly that's not going to happen, but that's not the point. understanding what it is Aspectre posts, and the context mentioned above that i've quoted, i for one appreciate this information for perspective sake. it is just an extension of the notion of bearing, moreso than a simple compass reading, which many clearly care about for their westcasts ;P Member Since: Luglio 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1266

40. FtMyersgal 02:06 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Quoting P451: GFS, NAM, CMC, NGP all develop the BOC disturbance. However, they barely move it. There sure looks to be alot of dry air in the GOM so I agree with someone on the previous blog stating Texas is sucking the moisture out of the GOM and don't see this blob ever making it to Nate status Member Since: Settembre 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1057

41. beell 02:06 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
3 month temp outlook (bitter La Nina look) Nov/Dec/Jan Member Since: Settembre 11, 2007 Posts: 126 Comments: 13069

47. RussianWinter 02:12 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
So with 95L likely to pass to the north of the antilles and turn nw and miss Bermuda, does this mean that 95L is going to be a fish? Member Since: Agosto 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 648

48. Minnemike 02:13 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
the NOAA WV loop i like to view shows that air dipping into the GOM as so dry it goes beyond their color scale Link i see this from time to time, but of this magnitude and size not as often! agree that this will greatly impede development for some time in the BOC.. Member Since: Luglio 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1266

49. HCW 02:13 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Latest 95L model runs from the NHC Member Since: Agosto 10, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1291

50. jpsb 02:14 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
h Member Since: Giugno 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 578

51. justalurker 02:14 PM GMT del 06 Settembre 2011
Member Since: Agosto 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 157

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