Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting connie1976:
Levi,
Do you think that at the 5 pm update that parts of south florida will be out of the cone?

Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Sunday, August 21st, with Video

Thanks Levi..I think..LOL!

Quoting Abacosurf:
Thanks Levi.

Brave statement to say that west Florida has been taken out of the equation.

Hope your not eating those words in a day or two....

Why is the NHC showing such a NW track through day 5.

Because the AB high is building back to the west???

Quoting SavannahStorm:
Recon found a MUCH tighter, closed circulation @ 17.3833N 63.55W

Quoting cchsweatherman:
I'm really not seeing a WNW motion with Tropical Storm Irene as some have advertised. Based upon Hurricane Hunter fixes and satellite imagery, Irene appears to be on a due west course.

Quoting Levi32:


Oh please Press...an A- would take my GPA below 3.0...have mercy!

Quoting cchsweatherman:
Irene's core seems weak to me.

Quoting MZT:
Very good blog update by Lev32... the fast disappearance of the weakness and the rebuilding ridge pushing on the storm late next week is not something that has been discussed much so far.

Agree with all the main points in his video.

Quoting winter123:
In other news... remember Lisa last year? I thought 98L might pull something like this. Now it looks unlikely. Too much sarahan dust. Is the african wave train over for the year, or what??

Quoting weathergeek5:
Levi32 has his video up:

Quoting Levi32:


That is correct. She is struggling with dry air, as evidenced by outflow boundaries in the SW quadrant and weak convective tops.

Quoting Levi32:


The NHC is showing a NW track because that's what the models showed. Their reaction time to model shifts is slow because they know about the wagging that they do, so thus the Day 5 forecast point is to the west of the consensus.

The models show a northwest to NNW track because of what you said, the Bermuda High building westward as the New England trough runs away.

Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Sunday, August 21st, with Video

Quoting sullivanweather:


Bonnie went back to a hurricane cause it moved off land, losing the land's frictional component which cut a good 30% of the winds aloft reflected at the surface. So, naturally, once back over water and without that land friction winds were able to crank back up to 75 at the surface. In terms of pressure Bonnie was weakening the entire time.

Quoting Ineluki:
We've reached what I like to call the Rorschach test portion of a tropical cyclone's life.

This is when the individual observer sees something that the other observer simply DOESN'T. For example, one poster sees, in a radar loop, the storm moving more north, whereas I see it moving more westerly and someone else could see it moving even WSW. Several frame loops are very bad for judging actual motion in my experience. Sometimes you're seeing the movement of storms within the system, or the expansion of the system in particular directions.

And as for the model runs, there are always things to consider in each run. The first and foremost is initialization; if that's wrong, then you might as well toss the entire model out. The second thing to consider is if the run is actually doing something that makes sense within the weather pattern forecast BY the model. The third thing to consider is that, over three days out, even the best model is saying "this is an educated guess at best." With Irene, you're dealing with a storm that is still organizing, with a possible path that could either carry it over warm waters or disruptive mountains, and depending on the strength of troughs a few days down the line for track. Don't become married to the notion that a couple of runs for the GFS means Florida is out of the clear, or that South Carolina isn't in play.

Remember always to observe the actual conditions, not a few frames on a loop. I can't count how many times the more over excitable here have thought a storm was moving in a direction it actually wasn't because of a loop. The NHC goes with general motion over several hours for a reason; these things aren't riding rails on the water out there after all.

Good luck to anyone in the path of Irene!

Quoting spathy:
#531 & #532 Great timing.

Quoting Bluestorm5:
Moving to NW again... 937 mb? I'm not buying this.

Quoting K8eCane:
This sucks a wad. Reason? I am in the process of switching homeowner policies. I have a 9000 deductible for windstorm currently. My new policy with 2000 deductible takes effect the 30th

Quoting Levi32:


The NHC is showing a NW track because that's what the models showed. Their reaction time to model shifts is slow because they know about the wagging that they do, so thus the Day 5 forecast point is to the west of the consensus.

The models show a northwest to NNW track because of what you said, the Bermuda High building westward as the New England trough runs away.