Tropical Storm Don forms in the Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Storm Don, the fourth tropical cyclone of the 2011 season, has formed in the Gulf of Mexico just north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Hurricane Hunters began investigating the system earlier this afternoon and quickly found a closed surface circulation. As the mission continued to gather data from what was thought to be a tropical depression at the time, winds of around 39 mph were found, as well as a 1001 mb central pressure, bringing the system up to tropical storm strength.
Figure 1. Satellite loop of Tropical Storm Don. This loop will stay current.
The official forecast for Don agrees with what most of the models have been suggesting over the past 24 hours. Don will make its way toward the northwest over the next 48 hours before making landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Galveston. The statistical models tend to suggest a more southerly track toward Brownsville, and the dynamical models are forecasting anything from Corpus Christi to Galveston. They all tend to agree landfall will occur late on the 29th (Friday night). Whether or not Don will reach hurricane status is still in question. The Hurricane Center's initial forecast is that Don will remain a tropical storm until landfall. Today some models were intensifying Don to a strong tropical storm, but none crossed the hurricane threshold. Now that we have data from aircraft reconnaissance, the models will be able to get a better handle on potential intensity. The runs that occur later tonight and early tomorrow will have much less uncertainty than those from today.
Figure 2. Model forecast tracks for Tropical Storm Don as of Wednesday afternoon.
I believe Jeff will be back tomorrow for an update.
Angela
Reader Comments
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C. All of the above
That's pretty impressive
Very good. Thanks again for spending your time on this service, Levi!
Would that be to the right? Yes it's right or is it left. Depends on if your facing forward or aft. I'm confused now. Just joking it's right. And I do agree with you.
That would be my guess too.
Depending on how much the High to the north effects it I'd still guess a landfall somewhere between Port Mansfield and Aransas Pass as a strong TS, possibly a even a small hurricane.
I guess all that with nothing more than fifty years experience of watching Texas hurricanes. In the end Don will do what it does. I haven't done any more down here on the far south Laguna Madre than tie up my boat good.
This one is fairly small so it looks like there won't be much surge, and when you live on the Laguna Madre and your bottom floor is all of 1i or so feet above MSL that's your first concern.
Levi, Why are the circulations not stacking? Is it that the steering currents at differnt levels of the atmosphere are slightly different? Or shear, which was light, and thought to be getting lighter?
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