Famine declared due to drought in Somalia; U.S. heat wave shifts east
The main rainy season rains have failed again in the Horn of Africa--the region of East Africa comprising Somalia, Kenya, and Ethiopia. Rainfall over most of the Horn of Africa between February and July 2011 was 2 - 8 inches (50 - 200 mm) below average, leading to today's official declaration that famine conditions now exist. The region is experiencing a humanitarian emergency with more than 2 million malnourished children needing lifesaving action. The Horn of Africa has two rainy seasons, a main rainy season in April/May, and then the "short rains" of October/November. The main 2010 April/May rainy season brought above average rains to the region. However, the October/November 2010 "short rains" failed, as did the April/May 2011 main rainy season rains. The failure of two consecutive rainy seasons is a devastating blow for East Africa. African countries are highly dependent on rain-fed agriculture for both employment and economic production, with agriculture accounting for more than 50% of gross domestic product and up to 90% of employment across much of the continent (World Development Indicators 2009, World Bank). One third of the population of Africa lives in drought-prone areas (World Water Forum, 2000), and about 25% of the population of Africa currently experiences high water stress. Remarkably, several nations in East Africa have been selling their land to other countries to raise food for export in recent years. These nations include Ethiopia and Sudan, who both receive massive food aid from the U.N. World Food Program. According to the fascinating and sobering book, World on the Edge by Lester Brown, in January 2009, Saudi Arabia celebrated the arrival of the first shipment of rice on land they had acquired in Ethiopia, where the World Food Program was feeding 5 million people at the time. Saudi Arabia has been actively buying land in other countries to raise crops since the recent failure of agriculture in their country after they pumped their aquifers dry. India, South Korea, and Saudi Arabia have all brought land to grow crops in Sudan, which was the site of the World Food Program's largest famine relief effort in 2010. The world is running short of food, and nations that cannot feed themselves are aggressively competing to buy land to grow food where land costs are low, like East Africa.
Figure 1. Rainfall over most of the Horn of Africa between February and July 2011 was 2 - 8 inches (50 - 200 mm) below average, leading to a deadly drought in the region. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
Another day of dangerous heat in the Midwest
The dangerous Central U.S. heat wave of July 2011 will continue to bring another day of exceptionally humid heat to the Midwest today, and will also begin bringing temperatures in the mid-90s with high humidity to much of the mid-Atlantic and New England. The heat index--how hot the air feels when factoring in both the temperature and the humidity--exceeded 100°F in sixteen states in the center of the country on Tuesday, with the dangerous heat extending from Texas northwards to North Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. At least thirteen deaths are being blamed on the heat in the Midwest. The heat index hit a torrid 129°F at Newton, Iowa on Tuesday, and a heat index in excess of 120° was recorded at several locations in North Dakota, Iowa, Illinois, and Minnesota.
Figure 2. Predicted maximum heat index for Friday, July 22, 2011. Portions of 35 states are predicted to have a heat index in excess of 100°, with a heat index in excess of 115° expected over large portions of Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware. Image credit: NOAA.
Heat wave headed to the Eastern U.S.
The extreme heat will shift slowly eastwards this week, peaking in Chicago today, Detroit and Pittsburgh on Thursday, and New York City and the mid-Atlantic states on Friday. The forecast high of 103° in Washington D.C. for Friday is just 3° below the hottest temperature ever recorded in the city, 106°. This will no doubt stimulate some predictable quotes on global warming. The heat will remain in place over the mid-Atlantic states through Sunday, then ease on Monday when a cold front is expected to pass through. Wunderground's climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood has some good insights on the current heat wave in his latest post.
Tropical Storm Bret no threat
Tropical Storm Bret continues to spin off the U.S. East Coast, but is a weak storm with 50 mph winds, and is not expected to affect any land areas. Wind shear is a high 20 - 25 knots, and is expected to remain in the high range for the next three days. The combination of high wind shear and dry air nearby should act to keep Bret from strengthening, and the storm should slowly decay as it heads out to sea over the next few days.
Invest 99L no threat
Satellite imagery suggests that a low pressure system near 34N, 55W, about 500 miles east of Bermuda, is close to tropical depression strength. This system, dubbed Invest 99L, has been given a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by NHC. The storm is headed east-northeastwards out to sea, and is not a threat to any land areas. The storm will move over cool ocean waters below 25°C by Thursday morning, so it has just a short window of time to develop.
An African wave worth watching
An African wave near 45W, midway between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, is currently generating a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms due to the presence of a large amount of dust and dry air from the Sahara. However, this wave has a modest degree of spin to it, and it is possible it could develop once it finds a moister environment near the Bahama Islands early next week. The last few runs of the UKMET model have shown development of this wave by Tuesday over the Bahamas. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models show that this wave will become a strong tropical disturbance by Tuesday over the Bahamas, while the GFS model shows no development. If this wave does develop, it may recurve before hitting the U.S., since the models agree that there will be a large trough of low pressure present over the U.S. East Coast early next week.
Jeff Masters
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Some people seem to think tropical cyclones play a big part in Florida heavy rain but that really is only partially true. Most rainfall in Florida does not come from tropical cyclones. In fact, sometimes they disrupt the rain pattern and dry out the state, thus counteracting the rain season not helping it. Bret is not the first time Ive seen this happen. In fact much of last year it was dry due to low pressure forming off the East Coast of Florida or passing by East Coast. Whether they became named systems or not. Low pressure passing off the East Coast in essence brings a miniature drought to the state.
LOL, I remember tropicalamanda. I was going into 8th grade in 2008 as well. I had just got redistricted to a different school and was too worried about making a good impression there and stuff that I didn't really have time to care about this blog a whole lot. So I didn't know how that whole tropicalamanda fiasco ended, lol. Good times. Man this post was way off topic.
So on topic: I think TD3 will become Cindy at 11. Actually, the NHC might decide to declare it Cindy at 5 despite the ATCF strength. TAFB T numbers support a tropical storm.
And there's the point:
Is there any proof that GW has changed the PATTERN of where rain falls?
The only directly-measured station data I can find is pre-war and does not extend beyond 1985. Here is one of the most complete station records from central Somalia (6.8N, 47.3E). Most of the other stations (at least the semi-complete records) in Somalia (29 stations) agree with an annual rainfall maximum occuring in the 1960s, with some fall-off thereafter (less so the farther south you go it appears).
Source: Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorological Institute Climate Explorer
Any data since the war is hard to come by. If we trust reanalysis (not all that much), it agrees with the peak in the 1960s for the entire greater horn area, with a slow drop-off to the present.
Source: NOAA Earth Scan Research Laboratory, NCEP Reanalysis
will be conducive for the formation of funnel clouds. Funnel clouds
have already been reported over eastern Harris County... near Crosby
... As of early this afternoon. Any funnel cloud has the potential
of becoming a weak tornado.
This came out of nowhere but there are a few little pop up storms in the area. I guess it will be worth watching radar this afternoon. (This is the Houston area)
Good to see the Montgomery Research Group is continuing their research of tropical cyclone formation.
Unfortunately, CIMSS will not be carrying their products like they did last year. Not sure about NRL though.
Temperature: 93.5F
Heat Index: 104F
At least I turned on the AC.
Yeah I feel ya. We were getting a lot of rain for several weeks after terrible drought, but Bret just threw the whole pattern off. Its worse for us to lack rain this time of year even for a few days because its actually a rain season here. Up there its more pop-up storms. But even though they refer to it as the same thing here, the rain season months down here normally average about double that of most places in the U.S. Unfortunately not at the moment though.
Indeed. We may get Cindy out of it before it hits colder water.
I remember you - you were on my ignore list because of the "troll" behavior.
So far, in this life, we haven't seen any trolling. And, at least you're willing to admit who you were in the past.
Welcome back to the fold.
72 hours:
our farms are withering....i am an organic gardener as well, my plants are fried, i even went so far as to container plant this year so that the plants would be able to maintain more moisture...i have rain barrels as well, i use to be able to keep enough water to water my garden continuously, now...i dont get enuf to water even once every couple days...
Bret weakening, TD#3, African wave a threat to develop next week 7/20/11
Yeah well, Dora isn't a living organism, so you wouldn't be Dora :)
Welcome back,whoever you was(I entered blog in 2010,so I don't remember you)
I barely remember tropicalamanda lol, welcome to the blog! This time, we're glad to have you aboard!
In a nutshell...an Alt. account I made in late August 2008 during or right after Gustav. I (the girl) claimed to be a 16 year old 10th grade girl living in Galveston. I/she began a series of tropical weather blogs that attracted a large following. Everyone was astonished at how souch a young girl could be so meteorologically astute. I/she made all these predictions before and during Ike, that Ike would follow Gustav but wouldn't go into Galveston, and then Ike did go into Galveston so I disappeared for three days and the blog went into a craze wondering if tropicalamanda was okay or not, then came out 3 days later telling everyone I was just kidding. The blog got mad and the account got permabanned.
Okay, that's kinda funny. I bet Senior Chief was a fan of hers!
I got caught up in that tropicalamanda stuff as well. In fact, I still got some old emails from it (I never clean out my mailbox). I guess now we can look back on it and laugh. lol
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