Famine declared due to drought in Somalia; U.S. heat wave shifts east
The main rainy season rains have failed again in the Horn of Africa--the region of East Africa comprising Somalia, Kenya, and Ethiopia. Rainfall over most of the Horn of Africa between February and July 2011 was 2 - 8 inches (50 - 200 mm) below average, leading to today's official declaration that famine conditions now exist. The region is experiencing a humanitarian emergency with more than 2 million malnourished children needing lifesaving action. The Horn of Africa has two rainy seasons, a main rainy season in April/May, and then the "short rains" of October/November. The main 2010 April/May rainy season brought above average rains to the region. However, the October/November 2010 "short rains" failed, as did the April/May 2011 main rainy season rains. The failure of two consecutive rainy seasons is a devastating blow for East Africa. African countries are highly dependent on rain-fed agriculture for both employment and economic production, with agriculture accounting for more than 50% of gross domestic product and up to 90% of employment across much of the continent (World Development Indicators 2009, World Bank). One third of the population of Africa lives in drought-prone areas (World Water Forum, 2000), and about 25% of the population of Africa currently experiences high water stress. Remarkably, several nations in East Africa have been selling their land to other countries to raise food for export in recent years. These nations include Ethiopia and Sudan, who both receive massive food aid from the U.N. World Food Program. According to the fascinating and sobering book, World on the Edge by Lester Brown, in January 2009, Saudi Arabia celebrated the arrival of the first shipment of rice on land they had acquired in Ethiopia, where the World Food Program was feeding 5 million people at the time. Saudi Arabia has been actively buying land in other countries to raise crops since the recent failure of agriculture in their country after they pumped their aquifers dry. India, South Korea, and Saudi Arabia have all brought land to grow crops in Sudan, which was the site of the World Food Program's largest famine relief effort in 2010. The world is running short of food, and nations that cannot feed themselves are aggressively competing to buy land to grow food where land costs are low, like East Africa.
Figure 1. Rainfall over most of the Horn of Africa between February and July 2011 was 2 - 8 inches (50 - 200 mm) below average, leading to a deadly drought in the region. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
Another day of dangerous heat in the Midwest
The dangerous Central U.S. heat wave of July 2011 will continue to bring another day of exceptionally humid heat to the Midwest today, and will also begin bringing temperatures in the mid-90s with high humidity to much of the mid-Atlantic and New England. The heat index--how hot the air feels when factoring in both the temperature and the humidity--exceeded 100°F in sixteen states in the center of the country on Tuesday, with the dangerous heat extending from Texas northwards to North Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. At least thirteen deaths are being blamed on the heat in the Midwest. The heat index hit a torrid 129°F at Newton, Iowa on Tuesday, and a heat index in excess of 120° was recorded at several locations in North Dakota, Iowa, Illinois, and Minnesota.
Figure 2. Predicted maximum heat index for Friday, July 22, 2011. Portions of 35 states are predicted to have a heat index in excess of 100°, with a heat index in excess of 115° expected over large portions of Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware. Image credit: NOAA.
Heat wave headed to the Eastern U.S.
The extreme heat will shift slowly eastwards this week, peaking in Chicago today, Detroit and Pittsburgh on Thursday, and New York City and the mid-Atlantic states on Friday. The forecast high of 103° in Washington D.C. for Friday is just 3° below the hottest temperature ever recorded in the city, 106°. This will no doubt stimulate some predictable quotes on global warming. The heat will remain in place over the mid-Atlantic states through Sunday, then ease on Monday when a cold front is expected to pass through. Wunderground's climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood has some good insights on the current heat wave in his latest post.
Tropical Storm Bret no threat
Tropical Storm Bret continues to spin off the U.S. East Coast, but is a weak storm with 50 mph winds, and is not expected to affect any land areas. Wind shear is a high 20 - 25 knots, and is expected to remain in the high range for the next three days. The combination of high wind shear and dry air nearby should act to keep Bret from strengthening, and the storm should slowly decay as it heads out to sea over the next few days.
Invest 99L no threat
Satellite imagery suggests that a low pressure system near 34N, 55W, about 500 miles east of Bermuda, is close to tropical depression strength. This system, dubbed Invest 99L, has been given a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by NHC. The storm is headed east-northeastwards out to sea, and is not a threat to any land areas. The storm will move over cool ocean waters below 25°C by Thursday morning, so it has just a short window of time to develop.
An African wave worth watching
An African wave near 45W, midway between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, is currently generating a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms due to the presence of a large amount of dust and dry air from the Sahara. However, this wave has a modest degree of spin to it, and it is possible it could develop once it finds a moister environment near the Bahama Islands early next week. The last few runs of the UKMET model have shown development of this wave by Tuesday over the Bahamas. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models show that this wave will become a strong tropical disturbance by Tuesday over the Bahamas, while the GFS model shows no development. If this wave does develop, it may recurve before hitting the U.S., since the models agree that there will be a large trough of low pressure present over the U.S. East Coast early next week.
Jeff Masters
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On the topic of AGW, etc., see 346, it's not on topic, anyway. L8R, HaHu.
Thanks for the ID............. :)
Link
AL, 03, 2011072018, , BEST, 0, 345N, 547W, 30, 1009, TD
AL, 02, 2011072018, , BEST, 0, 316N, 735W, 40, 1005, TS
2006 was the last time we saw 4 straight hurricanes in the Central/East Pacific.
It reached 6 in fact.
We saw five straight hurricanes to finish off last year in the Atlantic, but when was the last time we saw four straight hurricanes to start the year?
WHXX01 KWBC 201858
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1858 UTC WED JUL 20 2011
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE (AL032011) 20110720 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110720 1800 110721 0600 110721 1800 110722 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 34.5N 54.7W 36.5N 52.2W 38.7N 48.9W 40.2N 44.9W
BAMD 34.5N 54.7W 36.9N 50.9W 39.5N 46.7W 41.2N 41.8W
BAMM 34.5N 54.7W 36.5N 52.0W 38.7N 48.5W 40.0N 44.4W
LBAR 34.5N 54.7W 36.8N 51.0W 39.4N 47.2W 41.9N 43.2W
SHIP 30KTS 39KTS 45KTS 46KTS
DSHP 30KTS 39KTS 45KTS 46KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110722 1800 110723 1800 110724 1800 110725 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 41.8N 40.6W 44.9N 30.6W 45.4N 22.2W 43.0N 18.9W
BAMD 41.8N 38.1W 42.5N 33.2W 43.7N 29.6W 45.1N 28.4W
BAMM 41.1N 40.6W 43.0N 33.3W 44.0N 26.9W 44.0N 24.8W
LBAR 44.6N 39.0W 50.6N 27.9W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 41KTS 28KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 41KTS 28KTS 0KTS 0KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 34.5N LONCUR = 54.7W DIRCUR = 55DEG SPDCUR = 22KT
LATM12 = 33.1N LONM12 = 59.5W DIRM12 = 86DEG SPDM12 = 21KT
LATM24 = 33.2N LONM24 = 63.8W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1017MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
Tropical Depression Three.
Brings me back...
Impossible to predict future trends on the scale of small regions, like Somalia, although I've seen pretty consistent predictions for the desertification of southern Europe. And it seems to be believed that monsoon areas will spread north in the northern hemisphere, so the Sahel to the south of the Sahara might get the benefit of that.
Tropical Depression 3.
Lets see if it can get to Cindy.
Yes and than it moves West-Northwest and hits South Eastern Florida. Moves into the Gulf after that.
TD3?
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al032011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201107201856
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
THREE, AL, L, , , , , 03, 2011, DB, S, 2011071918, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 3, AL032011
AL, 03, 2011071818, , BEST, 0, 327N, 683W, 20, 1016, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 03, 2011071900, , BEST, 0, 329N, 674W, 20, 1016, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 03, 2011071906, , BEST, 0, 332N, 665W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 03, 2011071912, , BEST, 0, 334N, 655W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 03, 2011071918, , BEST, 0, 332N, 638W, 25, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 90, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 03, 2011072000, , BEST, 0, 331N, 618W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 100, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 03, 2011072006, , BEST, 0, 331N, 595W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 100, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 03, 2011072012, , BEST, 0, 333N, 569W, 30, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 100, 45, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 03, 2011072018, , BEST, 0, 345N, 547W, 30, 1009, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1017, 100, 35, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, THREE, M,
SHIPS certainly says it can.
didn't consider that. Although as a kid, if you suck on a bendy straw once it would start siphening the water out of the glass.
what can be said is that increased floods or droughts at specific location can cause famine. whether or not increased floods or droughts would occur in a warming world with increasing water vapor is what i have been addressing. rainfall in that region is specifically cited in Dr. M's post... and Fact of the matter is, i never once stated anything about AGW in this blog today.. i have Only addressed an observed warming trend of global climate and the associated increased water vapor in the atmosphere.. as a result of another blogger's post.
Oh wow, I remember that name. I lurked before I joined in 08 a lot. My first season was 2005 (what a way to start), but I never joined until 3 years later.
Than it moves over to hit South Florida according to the next few frames. The other day it had it curving northward. Watch out for the CMC cause it might scare a few North Carolina folks cause the latest model there shows it getting a little to close for comfort.
People change. Of course I won't.
The CATL wave needs to be watched. It has a classic pouch signature and a huge moisture envelope. If it can get into a more moist/favorable enviorment this weekend, things could become interesting as it will be near the northern islands.
20/1745 UTC 34.3N 54.8W ST1.5 99L
I believe so but most of the models do the same.
We're not rejecting the history of ST - we enjoy reading his "forecasts", and pointing it out when there's a spectacular fail.
Besides, if he IS StormTop, why isn't the "legend" still using that name?
Dora is up to 110 mph, down to 968 mb.
AL 03 201107201745 DVTS 3440N 5480W TAFB 1515 ///// S CSC PSN BSD ON ANIMATION OF LL CLOUDS E OF CONVECTIO
AL 03 201107201815 DVTS 3460N 5450W TAFB 2525 ///// T CSC PSN BSD ON ANIMATION OF LL CLOUDS E OF CONVECTIO
lol -- who were they in their former life?
Titan? Titan was retired 6 years ago. Its Falcon vs. ULA's Delta IV and Atlas V, and the Taurus II. Every rocket is competing against each other.
I'm writing up a blog entry right now to reflect the latest changes in the tropics.
Lol. SSD still thinking 1.5 ST. I posted that on post 383.
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