Famine declared due to drought in Somalia; U.S. heat wave shifts east
The main rainy season rains have failed again in the Horn of Africa--the region of East Africa comprising Somalia, Kenya, and Ethiopia. Rainfall over most of the Horn of Africa between February and July 2011 was 2 - 8 inches (50 - 200 mm) below average, leading to today's official declaration that famine conditions now exist. The region is experiencing a humanitarian emergency with more than 2 million malnourished children needing lifesaving action. The Horn of Africa has two rainy seasons, a main rainy season in April/May, and then the "short rains" of October/November. The main 2010 April/May rainy season brought above average rains to the region. However, the October/November 2010 "short rains" failed, as did the April/May 2011 main rainy season rains. The failure of two consecutive rainy seasons is a devastating blow for East Africa. African countries are highly dependent on rain-fed agriculture for both employment and economic production, with agriculture accounting for more than 50% of gross domestic product and up to 90% of employment across much of the continent (World Development Indicators 2009, World Bank). One third of the population of Africa lives in drought-prone areas (World Water Forum, 2000), and about 25% of the population of Africa currently experiences high water stress. Remarkably, several nations in East Africa have been selling their land to other countries to raise food for export in recent years. These nations include Ethiopia and Sudan, who both receive massive food aid from the U.N. World Food Program. According to the fascinating and sobering book, World on the Edge by Lester Brown, in January 2009, Saudi Arabia celebrated the arrival of the first shipment of rice on land they had acquired in Ethiopia, where the World Food Program was feeding 5 million people at the time. Saudi Arabia has been actively buying land in other countries to raise crops since the recent failure of agriculture in their country after they pumped their aquifers dry. India, South Korea, and Saudi Arabia have all brought land to grow crops in Sudan, which was the site of the World Food Program's largest famine relief effort in 2010. The world is running short of food, and nations that cannot feed themselves are aggressively competing to buy land to grow food where land costs are low, like East Africa.
Figure 1. Rainfall over most of the Horn of Africa between February and July 2011 was 2 - 8 inches (50 - 200 mm) below average, leading to a deadly drought in the region. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
Another day of dangerous heat in the Midwest
The dangerous Central U.S. heat wave of July 2011 will continue to bring another day of exceptionally humid heat to the Midwest today, and will also begin bringing temperatures in the mid-90s with high humidity to much of the mid-Atlantic and New England. The heat index--how hot the air feels when factoring in both the temperature and the humidity--exceeded 100°F in sixteen states in the center of the country on Tuesday, with the dangerous heat extending from Texas northwards to North Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. At least thirteen deaths are being blamed on the heat in the Midwest. The heat index hit a torrid 129°F at Newton, Iowa on Tuesday, and a heat index in excess of 120° was recorded at several locations in North Dakota, Iowa, Illinois, and Minnesota.
Figure 2. Predicted maximum heat index for Friday, July 22, 2011. Portions of 35 states are predicted to have a heat index in excess of 100°, with a heat index in excess of 115° expected over large portions of Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware. Image credit: NOAA.
Heat wave headed to the Eastern U.S.
The extreme heat will shift slowly eastwards this week, peaking in Chicago today, Detroit and Pittsburgh on Thursday, and New York City and the mid-Atlantic states on Friday. The forecast high of 103° in Washington D.C. for Friday is just 3° below the hottest temperature ever recorded in the city, 106°. This will no doubt stimulate some predictable quotes on global warming. The heat will remain in place over the mid-Atlantic states through Sunday, then ease on Monday when a cold front is expected to pass through. Wunderground's climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood has some good insights on the current heat wave in his latest post.
Tropical Storm Bret no threat
Tropical Storm Bret continues to spin off the U.S. East Coast, but is a weak storm with 50 mph winds, and is not expected to affect any land areas. Wind shear is a high 20 - 25 knots, and is expected to remain in the high range for the next three days. The combination of high wind shear and dry air nearby should act to keep Bret from strengthening, and the storm should slowly decay as it heads out to sea over the next few days.
Invest 99L no threat
Satellite imagery suggests that a low pressure system near 34N, 55W, about 500 miles east of Bermuda, is close to tropical depression strength. This system, dubbed Invest 99L, has been given a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by NHC. The storm is headed east-northeastwards out to sea, and is not a threat to any land areas. The storm will move over cool ocean waters below 25°C by Thursday morning, so it has just a short window of time to develop.
An African wave worth watching
An African wave near 45W, midway between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, is currently generating a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms due to the presence of a large amount of dust and dry air from the Sahara. However, this wave has a modest degree of spin to it, and it is possible it could develop once it finds a moister environment near the Bahama Islands early next week. The last few runs of the UKMET model have shown development of this wave by Tuesday over the Bahamas. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models show that this wave will become a strong tropical disturbance by Tuesday over the Bahamas, while the GFS model shows no development. If this wave does develop, it may recurve before hitting the U.S., since the models agree that there will be a large trough of low pressure present over the U.S. East Coast early next week.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Looks a lot better than Bret, who may be weaker at 5PM based on satellite appearance.
eh don't you hate that? When you change your prediction and your gut prediction comes true. Looks like we will likely have 3 and maybe 4. The trick here for me is that I forecasted 2 hurricanes and 1 Major. The Major Hurricane might be a bit more tricky with how much of July is still left.
Bret is still there? Man that thing won't die.
leaving him with an ACE of 2.62 thats my prediction
Here's how it works. More warmth = more evaporation and a greater capacity of the atmosphere to hold moisture, therefore more rain.
This rain will be more 'tropical' in character. In other words, the rain which does fall is more likely to fall in heavier bursts. This is not the best rain for irrigating the land. The best rainfall for irrigation is a steady drizzle.
As a result, the top of the soil will rapidly become saturated, so that further rainfall will simply run off the land into watercourses. In addition, higher temperatures will mean greater evaporation of the water in the soil.
So, in a warmer world, you get an increase in both droughts and floods, and this will be exacerbated by changing patterns of where the rain actually falls.
Yeah, 2007 was an example where La Nina actually got too strong to be very favorable.
Rainbow
Could I get the link to where you found the CMC model? I have been saving them all.
July, 2008~
TS Cristobal: July 17th cristobal formed(the day bret formed)
TS Dolly: July 20th Dolly formed(cindy is forming today)
this is so ironic?
RGB
Buzzsaw Look! Hated for anyone who might get brushed by Dora? lol I think a lot of people down there are hoping she goes and explores somewhere else.
Viz
Not really. There have been much stronger La Ninas than 2007's.
2010 being one example.
1950, 1955, 1988 and 1999 also had stronger values.
So the day Edouard formed, Don will form? LOL
Look at the red around Southeastern Bahamas!
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DORA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.6 WEST. DORA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DORA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DORA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND DORA COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY
TONIGHT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB...28.70 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA BY TONIGHT AND WITHIN THE REMAINDER
OF THE WATCH AREA BY THURSDAY.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY DORA WILL AFFECT THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
$$
Coincidence, not irony.
With all the international money that has been poured into Africa for famine relief, wouldn't it have been much cheaper to build desalination plants and pipelines to bring water where needed and let them plant crops? Why do we keep putting band-aids on stuff?
Isn't that a much better long-term solution? I'm sure they dig the UNICEF rice but....
Just wonderin aloud.
an incorrect statement is: if it floods, its because of global warming; if there's drought, blame it on global warming.
a correct statement is: flooding and drought can coexist and become amplified, with increased atmospheric moisture around a warming globe.
Wait, I went back to check the Ocean Nino Index and sure enough you're correct. For some reason it's been stuck in my mind that a strong La Nina was the cause of the strong dry air and strong easterly trade winds that prevailed over the 2007 season. I remember reading it several times, but I guess that's not so. So what was the reason for the atmospheric pattern during 2007?
This is what I don't like about this whole blame thing. You two could spend all afternoon at this and nothing useful would be achieved. I say agree to disagree and call it that. Then we can talk about one of the 4 different tropical systems currently or potentially on the go...
Sorry if I butted in on something "personal"......
Looks like they split the difference between TAFB and SAB
EP 04 201107201745 DVTS 1520N 10370W 90 TAFB 5050 ///// LL PSN BSD ON EYE. FINAL T BSD ON PATTERN T. DATA YI
EP 04 201107201745 DVTS 1520N 10370W 102 SAB 5555 ///// DT=5.5 BO EYE MET=5.0 PT=5.5 FTBO DT
Water's heavy. Any idea how much energy (and money) it takes to pump it hundreds of miles uphill from the sea? Far, far more than the value of the crops.
2011-Jul-20 12:00 N 3406' W 05212' 114 18.9 210 / 18 1019.1 5.4 1.0 25.0 22.7 25.0
Closest ship i could find to 99l, at least reporting weather conditions, was about 120miles ESE of 99L,reporting winds of 18.9 from 210 degrees.
Speaking of past trolls and blog regulars from back in the day, you have a pretty intimate knowledge of past years characters on the Blog with a "current" join date of July 2011; May I ask.......Who were You in your former-life on the Blog before you switched computer addresses?
It is possible that they have been enjoying an upwards trend and variability bit them this year? Do any of you know? (Especially important if you want to parlay this particular drought and famine onto the co2 subject matter).
Notice that Dr M posted nothing at all about climate change, trends in rainfall in Somalia, etc.
Would you mind sending me the link to that site? I lost it when I got my new comp. Thanks!
I think it would make a nice target for anarchists. Haven't shipments of food been hijacked in the past? Without political stability it is hard to deliver aid or solve anything.
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