Famine declared due to drought in Somalia; U.S. heat wave shifts east
The main rainy season rains have failed again in the Horn of Africa--the region of East Africa comprising Somalia, Kenya, and Ethiopia. Rainfall over most of the Horn of Africa between February and July 2011 was 2 - 8 inches (50 - 200 mm) below average, leading to today's official declaration that famine conditions now exist. The region is experiencing a humanitarian emergency with more than 2 million malnourished children needing lifesaving action. The Horn of Africa has two rainy seasons, a main rainy season in April/May, and then the "short rains" of October/November. The main 2010 April/May rainy season brought above average rains to the region. However, the October/November 2010 "short rains" failed, as did the April/May 2011 main rainy season rains. The failure of two consecutive rainy seasons is a devastating blow for East Africa. African countries are highly dependent on rain-fed agriculture for both employment and economic production, with agriculture accounting for more than 50% of gross domestic product and up to 90% of employment across much of the continent (World Development Indicators 2009, World Bank). One third of the population of Africa lives in drought-prone areas (World Water Forum, 2000), and about 25% of the population of Africa currently experiences high water stress. Remarkably, several nations in East Africa have been selling their land to other countries to raise food for export in recent years. These nations include Ethiopia and Sudan, who both receive massive food aid from the U.N. World Food Program. According to the fascinating and sobering book, World on the Edge by Lester Brown, in January 2009, Saudi Arabia celebrated the arrival of the first shipment of rice on land they had acquired in Ethiopia, where the World Food Program was feeding 5 million people at the time. Saudi Arabia has been actively buying land in other countries to raise crops since the recent failure of agriculture in their country after they pumped their aquifers dry. India, South Korea, and Saudi Arabia have all brought land to grow crops in Sudan, which was the site of the World Food Program's largest famine relief effort in 2010. The world is running short of food, and nations that cannot feed themselves are aggressively competing to buy land to grow food where land costs are low, like East Africa.
Figure 1. Rainfall over most of the Horn of Africa between February and July 2011 was 2 - 8 inches (50 - 200 mm) below average, leading to a deadly drought in the region. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
Another day of dangerous heat in the Midwest
The dangerous Central U.S. heat wave of July 2011 will continue to bring another day of exceptionally humid heat to the Midwest today, and will also begin bringing temperatures in the mid-90s with high humidity to much of the mid-Atlantic and New England. The heat index--how hot the air feels when factoring in both the temperature and the humidity--exceeded 100°F in sixteen states in the center of the country on Tuesday, with the dangerous heat extending from Texas northwards to North Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. At least thirteen deaths are being blamed on the heat in the Midwest. The heat index hit a torrid 129°F at Newton, Iowa on Tuesday, and a heat index in excess of 120° was recorded at several locations in North Dakota, Iowa, Illinois, and Minnesota.
Figure 2. Predicted maximum heat index for Friday, July 22, 2011. Portions of 35 states are predicted to have a heat index in excess of 100°, with a heat index in excess of 115° expected over large portions of Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware. Image credit: NOAA.
Heat wave headed to the Eastern U.S.
The extreme heat will shift slowly eastwards this week, peaking in Chicago today, Detroit and Pittsburgh on Thursday, and New York City and the mid-Atlantic states on Friday. The forecast high of 103° in Washington D.C. for Friday is just 3° below the hottest temperature ever recorded in the city, 106°. This will no doubt stimulate some predictable quotes on global warming. The heat will remain in place over the mid-Atlantic states through Sunday, then ease on Monday when a cold front is expected to pass through. Wunderground's climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood has some good insights on the current heat wave in his latest post.
Tropical Storm Bret no threat
Tropical Storm Bret continues to spin off the U.S. East Coast, but is a weak storm with 50 mph winds, and is not expected to affect any land areas. Wind shear is a high 20 - 25 knots, and is expected to remain in the high range for the next three days. The combination of high wind shear and dry air nearby should act to keep Bret from strengthening, and the storm should slowly decay as it heads out to sea over the next few days.
Invest 99L no threat
Satellite imagery suggests that a low pressure system near 34N, 55W, about 500 miles east of Bermuda, is close to tropical depression strength. This system, dubbed Invest 99L, has been given a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by NHC. The storm is headed east-northeastwards out to sea, and is not a threat to any land areas. The storm will move over cool ocean waters below 25°C by Thursday morning, so it has just a short window of time to develop.
An African wave worth watching
An African wave near 45W, midway between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, is currently generating a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms due to the presence of a large amount of dust and dry air from the Sahara. However, this wave has a modest degree of spin to it, and it is possible it could develop once it finds a moister environment near the Bahama Islands early next week. The last few runs of the UKMET model have shown development of this wave by Tuesday over the Bahamas. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models show that this wave will become a strong tropical disturbance by Tuesday over the Bahamas, while the GFS model shows no development. If this wave does develop, it may recurve before hitting the U.S., since the models agree that there will be a large trough of low pressure present over the U.S. East Coast early next week.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Never mind it appeared for me, it's just the graphic on the homepage that won't update.
HAHA im not, the map hasnt updated, but the text below it has!
Sorry dean, im fast on the draw!
The "evidence" is extremely thin (over a time period so short that it's statistically meaningless). And what does exist must be tied to the LARGE amounts of SulphurDioxide being pumped into the air by coal-fired powerplants in NewlyIndustrializedNations, especially China and India.
The problem is that in order for such ClimateChange masking to continue, we'd have to rely on China and India to continue poisoning themselves and their countries, including a continuance of their self-created droughts.
The problem is that along with the SO2, soot is also being emitted. Then dropped on the Arctic as well as the "ThirdPole" of the Himalayas and the TibetanPlateau. Surface soot increases the rates of ice-melt upon their glaciers, creating whole other set of headaches in terms of maintaining steady year-around water supplies for agriculture, industry (especially including electricity generation), and drinking water.
The problem is, once the NINs stop pumping SO2 into the air*, the SO2 drops out of the atmosphere relatively quickly -- in much less than a decade -- while the extra CO2 will linger for centuries.
* China already has filtering equipment in all of its newer coal-fired powerplants as required by law. But they also have weak laws and even weaker law enforcement in terms of making sure that the filtering equipment is used. Supplying limestone for the combustible bed burners and spraying water into the smokestack filters costs money. And up to now, bigger profits (no matter how slight the increase) have come above all other considerations.
You know, I'd bet on them not naming this, but just calling it as TD3. We'll see what happens. Gonna have a cyclone of some sort though.
Almost think that they just waited this long so they could bit-by-bit raise the percentage, rather than designate something that they only just put a 20% on last night.
What, is Beven usually conservative?
ABNT20 KNHC 201736
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM BRET...LOCATED ABOUT 255 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF
BERMUDA CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. IF CURRENT
TRENDS CONTINUE...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT AROUND 20 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
90% everyone, Cindy soon at 5 pm likely...
Bret will likely be 50 mph still, NHC has mad a fool of itself lately trying to forecast Bret, theyve forecasted weakening to a weak TS for 12 hours now, and yet hes sustained at 50 mph still, the NHC finally gave up and now predicts he will sustain until 11 pm.
I know, I saw that in the same article. I knew you would go back and find something.
With cooling in the Gulf of Guinea suggesting an active Cape Verde season, I'm starting to think we may be competing with last year's number.
It should, but it probably won't get designated as one until it gets closer to a landmass.
i think it will form more in the lines of monday or tuesday next week
Might be 90L in the next 48 hours.
Maybe the NFL did.
As soon as the lockout looks like it begins to end, the Atlantic switches on.
Hmmm....
1982 and 1987 also had NFL strikes. They were weak seasons.
Hmmm....
Spooky.
Last year didn't have much of an early season in terms of numbers, so I really don't see where the significance is in getting ahead of it. It's significant if this year can stay ahead of 2010 once we get to September.
It won't be named Thursday. I'll let you keep thinking that....
Don't expect an awful lot of accuracy/knowledge from TWC.
There is a new wave off the African coast that looks interesting.
You actually watched their tropical update? That must have been painful to go through.
Claudette of 2009 formed from 10% and quickly hit FL. What is goin on here?!
haha, I like watching the intro to the tropical weather update and I've had it on TWC all morning now really listening to anything.
Ex-TD5 only got up to 60% when it re-emerged in the GOMEX.
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