Famine declared due to drought in Somalia; U.S. heat wave shifts east
The main rainy season rains have failed again in the Horn of Africa--the region of East Africa comprising Somalia, Kenya, and Ethiopia. Rainfall over most of the Horn of Africa between February and July 2011 was 2 - 8 inches (50 - 200 mm) below average, leading to today's official declaration that famine conditions now exist. The region is experiencing a humanitarian emergency with more than 2 million malnourished children needing lifesaving action. The Horn of Africa has two rainy seasons, a main rainy season in April/May, and then the "short rains" of October/November. The main 2010 April/May rainy season brought above average rains to the region. However, the October/November 2010 "short rains" failed, as did the April/May 2011 main rainy season rains. The failure of two consecutive rainy seasons is a devastating blow for East Africa. African countries are highly dependent on rain-fed agriculture for both employment and economic production, with agriculture accounting for more than 50% of gross domestic product and up to 90% of employment across much of the continent (World Development Indicators 2009, World Bank). One third of the population of Africa lives in drought-prone areas (World Water Forum, 2000), and about 25% of the population of Africa currently experiences high water stress. Remarkably, several nations in East Africa have been selling their land to other countries to raise food for export in recent years. These nations include Ethiopia and Sudan, who both receive massive food aid from the U.N. World Food Program. According to the fascinating and sobering book, World on the Edge by Lester Brown, in January 2009, Saudi Arabia celebrated the arrival of the first shipment of rice on land they had acquired in Ethiopia, where the World Food Program was feeding 5 million people at the time. Saudi Arabia has been actively buying land in other countries to raise crops since the recent failure of agriculture in their country after they pumped their aquifers dry. India, South Korea, and Saudi Arabia have all brought land to grow crops in Sudan, which was the site of the World Food Program's largest famine relief effort in 2010. The world is running short of food, and nations that cannot feed themselves are aggressively competing to buy land to grow food where land costs are low, like East Africa.
Figure 1. Rainfall over most of the Horn of Africa between February and July 2011 was 2 - 8 inches (50 - 200 mm) below average, leading to a deadly drought in the region. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
Another day of dangerous heat in the Midwest
The dangerous Central U.S. heat wave of July 2011 will continue to bring another day of exceptionally humid heat to the Midwest today, and will also begin bringing temperatures in the mid-90s with high humidity to much of the mid-Atlantic and New England. The heat index--how hot the air feels when factoring in both the temperature and the humidity--exceeded 100°F in sixteen states in the center of the country on Tuesday, with the dangerous heat extending from Texas northwards to North Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. At least thirteen deaths are being blamed on the heat in the Midwest. The heat index hit a torrid 129°F at Newton, Iowa on Tuesday, and a heat index in excess of 120° was recorded at several locations in North Dakota, Iowa, Illinois, and Minnesota.
Figure 2. Predicted maximum heat index for Friday, July 22, 2011. Portions of 35 states are predicted to have a heat index in excess of 100°, with a heat index in excess of 115° expected over large portions of Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware. Image credit: NOAA.
Heat wave headed to the Eastern U.S.
The extreme heat will shift slowly eastwards this week, peaking in Chicago today, Detroit and Pittsburgh on Thursday, and New York City and the mid-Atlantic states on Friday. The forecast high of 103° in Washington D.C. for Friday is just 3° below the hottest temperature ever recorded in the city, 106°. This will no doubt stimulate some predictable quotes on global warming. The heat will remain in place over the mid-Atlantic states through Sunday, then ease on Monday when a cold front is expected to pass through. Wunderground's climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood has some good insights on the current heat wave in his latest post.
Tropical Storm Bret no threat
Tropical Storm Bret continues to spin off the U.S. East Coast, but is a weak storm with 50 mph winds, and is not expected to affect any land areas. Wind shear is a high 20 - 25 knots, and is expected to remain in the high range for the next three days. The combination of high wind shear and dry air nearby should act to keep Bret from strengthening, and the storm should slowly decay as it heads out to sea over the next few days.
Invest 99L no threat
Satellite imagery suggests that a low pressure system near 34N, 55W, about 500 miles east of Bermuda, is close to tropical depression strength. This system, dubbed Invest 99L, has been given a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by NHC. The storm is headed east-northeastwards out to sea, and is not a threat to any land areas. The storm will move over cool ocean waters below 25°C by Thursday morning, so it has just a short window of time to develop.
An African wave worth watching
An African wave near 45W, midway between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, is currently generating a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms due to the presence of a large amount of dust and dry air from the Sahara. However, this wave has a modest degree of spin to it, and it is possible it could develop once it finds a moister environment near the Bahama Islands early next week. The last few runs of the UKMET model have shown development of this wave by Tuesday over the Bahamas. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models show that this wave will become a strong tropical disturbance by Tuesday over the Bahamas, while the GFS model shows no development. If this wave does develop, it may recurve before hitting the U.S., since the models agree that there will be a large trough of low pressure present over the U.S. East Coast early next week.
Jeff Masters
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A.60 mph
B.65 mph
C.70 mph
D.75 mph
E.Stronger
F.Weaker
Tropical Wave In The Central Atlantic:
A tropical wave in the central Atlantic that I have been tracking over the last few days lacks convection this morning. The reason for this is because the dry, dusty Saharan Air Layer is undercutting any convective development. Even with that, I think the chances are quite good that this dry air will mix itself out once it gets close to the northern Leeward Islands on Saturday. Once this dry air is mixed out, I think we will see this tropical wave consolidate and strengthen into an area of low pressure by late this weekend and early next week as it approaches the southeastern Bahamas.
The global model guidance have backed way off on forecasting tropical development from this tropical wave. Even with this, the pattern is such next week that could favor a tropical disturbance tracking westward underneath a large ridge of high pressure and strengthening due to favorable environmental conditions. For now, this is a tropical wave that needs to be watched closely and there is a fairly good chance that it may never develop into a tropical cyclone; however, with that said, there is also just as equal of a chance that this system could be a real problem next week in terms of developing into a tropical cyclone. I will be keeping a close eye on this tropical wave and will keep you all updated on the latest.
that oughtta be a bannable offense.
Topsail Beach, NC was on GMA this morning about the increasing shark attacks on swimmers in shallow water..TWA13 would appreciate that story since he brought it up on the blog
Crownweather: (because the models have backed off developing the wave, you can rest assure we will be seeing tropical development, it never fails..LOL..)
The global model guidance have backed way off on forecasting tropical development from this tropical wave.
lol i misread it as bananable
It is a sad day. However, I don't think it'll be the final time we will see a shuttle.
Whether the American public will be coaxed into paying more taxes for a new one, or private investors going into the business (they seem interested. It's not a guarantee of a success as we saw with the Concorde, however, you can still fly, but there's only one way for you to go to space), or a new space race will come along.
Me too, i dreamed about it. Nice job NASA. You're a great shame. I also want to dream about living on Mars transformed into a habitable planet. Another nice job for NASA.
Sorry, just thought y'all could use a chuckle this morning! ;^)
Just one other word: NOT.
But the shuttle was only peripherally about exploration; it was designed and built for transportation (hence the 'T' in 'STS'). Now that the billions we spent on that are freed up, NASA can start working in earnest on the really important and exciting stuff. An analogy: if space were the American West in the early 1800s, the shuttle was like a wagon giving rides from the center of St. Louis to the outskirts of town. A vital and necessary service, to be sure. But the surface has barely been scratched.
(NOTE: I'm not putting down the shuttle or anyone connected to the program, including my own father. They can all be proud of what they accomplished.)
(EDIT: Here's a great article from a positive point of view.)
4 words: THAT COMMENT IS OLD.
I'm just sayin', for annular u need a little more continuity and none of that extra "hooky" looking stuff on the NW side....
Thanks for the smile!
Link
Well,i posted the ANNULAR!!! comment before the hooky stuff formed, just sayin, not startin' arguements.
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 21 JUL 2011 Time : 104500 UTC
Lat : 16:49:34 N Lon : 106:23:27 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 938.6mb/124.6kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.6 6.6
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 25 km
Center Temp : +13.3C Cloud Region Temp : -71.5C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
this is becomeing vary clos to ct 5
Thanks for the post, PR.... very sensible approach from Rob.
BTW, we are getting a fair amount of activity from the Twave that's passing through south of us and the ULL it's been interacting with. I woke up to rainshowers this morning and now there's considerable thunder off to the southwest.
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 19N74W OFF
THE COAST OF HAITI. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND
THIS CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
AND THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS FROM 10N TO 25N BETWEEN 65W AND 81W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN HAITI AND
81W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE FORMED BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND AND CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE BAHAMAS TO THE SOUTH OF 25N
TO THE WEST OF 72W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
CUBA...AND THEN BEYOND A LOCATION THAT IS ABOUT 50 NM TO THE
WEST OF JAMAICA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
CLUSTERS...IN LAKE MARACAIBO IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA...AND FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 74W AND 79W IN COLOMBIA
AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA ON THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN COAST...AND ALONG THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE WEST OF 80W.
I do not believe that is the last boom we will hear from Kennedy Space Center. I cannot imagine the facility closing as it may be leased out for commercial launches.
agree. look at what the hubble is giving us.
there are many more possibilities for space launches besides the shuttle program.
What happens to a dream deferred?
Does it dry up
like a raisin in the sun?
Or fester like a sore--
And then run?
Does it stink like rotten meat?
Or crust and sugar over--
like a syrupy sweet?
Maybe it just sags
like a heavy load.
Or does it explode?
If you have to blame somebody. Maybe it was just meant to be for a season.....
The entire shuttle program from inception cost only 30 billion dollars. A drop in the bucket of our national debt. Well worth it IMO. Now we will pay 63 million per person to go up with the russians.......go figure.
It was becoming Russian Roulette; only a matter of time before we had another Challenger disaster imo.
Nothing lasts forever.
and I live on the space coast.
i heard the boom this morning.
mostly everyone here was always awed by the shuttle lift-offs and landings, even after all these years.
nothing personal.
1488. Chicklit 5:02 AM PDT on July 21, 2011 Hide this comment.
The Shuttle Fleet was aging.
It was becoming Russian Roulette; only a matter of time before we had another Challenger disaster imo.
hey that was not nic too say lol
I'm sorry. I saw the Challenger blow up and every time one would go up watched for that wretched cloud. It seemed routine for tiles to fall off when launching, by the way.
... Heat advisory now in effect from 11 am this morning to 8 PM
EDT this evening...
* temperature... temperatures in the mid and upper 90s very near
the coast and near 100 degrees elsewhere will combine with the
humidity to make it feel as if it were 105 to 109 degrees for a
majority of the afternoon and early evening. A few spots may
briefly reach a heat index of 110 degrees.
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