Famine declared due to drought in Somalia; U.S. heat wave shifts east
The main rainy season rains have failed again in the Horn of Africa--the region of East Africa comprising Somalia, Kenya, and Ethiopia. Rainfall over most of the Horn of Africa between February and July 2011 was 2 - 8 inches (50 - 200 mm) below average, leading to today's official declaration that famine conditions now exist. The region is experiencing a humanitarian emergency with more than 2 million malnourished children needing lifesaving action. The Horn of Africa has two rainy seasons, a main rainy season in April/May, and then the "short rains" of October/November. The main 2010 April/May rainy season brought above average rains to the region. However, the October/November 2010 "short rains" failed, as did the April/May 2011 main rainy season rains. The failure of two consecutive rainy seasons is a devastating blow for East Africa. African countries are highly dependent on rain-fed agriculture for both employment and economic production, with agriculture accounting for more than 50% of gross domestic product and up to 90% of employment across much of the continent (World Development Indicators 2009, World Bank). One third of the population of Africa lives in drought-prone areas (World Water Forum, 2000), and about 25% of the population of Africa currently experiences high water stress. Remarkably, several nations in East Africa have been selling their land to other countries to raise food for export in recent years. These nations include Ethiopia and Sudan, who both receive massive food aid from the U.N. World Food Program. According to the fascinating and sobering book, World on the Edge by Lester Brown, in January 2009, Saudi Arabia celebrated the arrival of the first shipment of rice on land they had acquired in Ethiopia, where the World Food Program was feeding 5 million people at the time. Saudi Arabia has been actively buying land in other countries to raise crops since the recent failure of agriculture in their country after they pumped their aquifers dry. India, South Korea, and Saudi Arabia have all brought land to grow crops in Sudan, which was the site of the World Food Program's largest famine relief effort in 2010. The world is running short of food, and nations that cannot feed themselves are aggressively competing to buy land to grow food where land costs are low, like East Africa.
Figure 1. Rainfall over most of the Horn of Africa between February and July 2011 was 2 - 8 inches (50 - 200 mm) below average, leading to a deadly drought in the region. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
Another day of dangerous heat in the Midwest
The dangerous Central U.S. heat wave of July 2011 will continue to bring another day of exceptionally humid heat to the Midwest today, and will also begin bringing temperatures in the mid-90s with high humidity to much of the mid-Atlantic and New England. The heat index--how hot the air feels when factoring in both the temperature and the humidity--exceeded 100°F in sixteen states in the center of the country on Tuesday, with the dangerous heat extending from Texas northwards to North Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. At least thirteen deaths are being blamed on the heat in the Midwest. The heat index hit a torrid 129°F at Newton, Iowa on Tuesday, and a heat index in excess of 120° was recorded at several locations in North Dakota, Iowa, Illinois, and Minnesota.
Figure 2. Predicted maximum heat index for Friday, July 22, 2011. Portions of 35 states are predicted to have a heat index in excess of 100°, with a heat index in excess of 115° expected over large portions of Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware. Image credit: NOAA.
Heat wave headed to the Eastern U.S.
The extreme heat will shift slowly eastwards this week, peaking in Chicago today, Detroit and Pittsburgh on Thursday, and New York City and the mid-Atlantic states on Friday. The forecast high of 103° in Washington D.C. for Friday is just 3° below the hottest temperature ever recorded in the city, 106°. This will no doubt stimulate some predictable quotes on global warming. The heat will remain in place over the mid-Atlantic states through Sunday, then ease on Monday when a cold front is expected to pass through. Wunderground's climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood has some good insights on the current heat wave in his latest post.
Tropical Storm Bret no threat
Tropical Storm Bret continues to spin off the U.S. East Coast, but is a weak storm with 50 mph winds, and is not expected to affect any land areas. Wind shear is a high 20 - 25 knots, and is expected to remain in the high range for the next three days. The combination of high wind shear and dry air nearby should act to keep Bret from strengthening, and the storm should slowly decay as it heads out to sea over the next few days.
Invest 99L no threat
Satellite imagery suggests that a low pressure system near 34N, 55W, about 500 miles east of Bermuda, is close to tropical depression strength. This system, dubbed Invest 99L, has been given a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by NHC. The storm is headed east-northeastwards out to sea, and is not a threat to any land areas. The storm will move over cool ocean waters below 25°C by Thursday morning, so it has just a short window of time to develop.
An African wave worth watching
An African wave near 45W, midway between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, is currently generating a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms due to the presence of a large amount of dust and dry air from the Sahara. However, this wave has a modest degree of spin to it, and it is possible it could develop once it finds a moister environment near the Bahama Islands early next week. The last few runs of the UKMET model have shown development of this wave by Tuesday over the Bahamas. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models show that this wave will become a strong tropical disturbance by Tuesday over the Bahamas, while the GFS model shows no development. If this wave does develop, it may recurve before hitting the U.S., since the models agree that there will be a large trough of low pressure present over the U.S. East Coast early next week.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Last time I was NOLA was 2 weeks to the day before Katrina hit. Most of my pics I took then got screwed up, so I have only my memories to keep me. Like the pic on ur blog.
Who?!
Everything you say is true Beell, except that it's all based off of the GFS model. It's very easy to pick a model and derive a forecast from it, in my opinion. What if the GFS lets you down?
HEY YA PRESS! just mentioned ya a minute ago lol
Most are around, just not posting much. How you been Tigger?
'sup neighbor?!
Another one that has blown quite a few forecasts over the last several years and will then come back after the fact to "correct" and back-date.....However, this is a "safe" statement as it is basically a re-hash of what some of the models have indicated; "possible" and "potential" are often used in this field (even by NHC) because nothing is certain even if based upon model support.......This is not an exact science and that is why it is so interestng because of all the variables with each individual storm and atmospheric conditions around it at that particular time.
Tropical Storm Ayla: Forms in the SW Caribbean and strikes Honduras as 50 MPH TS, causing major flooding and 20+ drowning deaths but very minor wind damage. Similar to last year's Matthew.(June 13-15)
Hurricane Ben: Early-season Cape Verde hurricane which peaks as a high-end CAT II but stays mainly out to sea, just generating high surf offshore Bermuda. (June 30-July 11)
Tropical Storm Constance: Forms over The Bahamas and brushes the US East Coast as high end TS, causing minor damage and one death. (July 9-13)
Tropical Storm Derek: Forms in the Eastern Gulf Of Mexico and struck Florida Panhandle as weak to moderate TS, causing very minor damage. (July 11-12)
Hurricane Emma: Forms in the Eastern Jamaica, struck Jamaica as CAT III, hit Western Cuba as CAT IV and finally made landfall in the Biloxi MS area as CAT II, causing heavy damage in areas and a total of 42 fatalities. Like a blend of Gustav & Dennis track-wise. Gets retired mainly for the extreme damage in Cuba. (July 24-August 4)
Hurricane Frankie: CV storm which ramps up to CAT I intensity but stays out at sea. (August 2-6)
Tropical Storm Gina: Forms off Southeast US Coast and makes landfall over the NC Outer Banks as weak TS, causing very little to no damage. (August 9-11)
Hurricane Harris: CV hurricane which hits Jamaica as CAT II, Cuba as CAT III then rapidly intensifies into CAT V before landfall in South Florida causing catastrophic damage and 136 fatalities total. (August 12-24)
Tropical Storm Ivy: Forms in Central Atlantic and races out to sea. (August 20-23)
Hurricane Jason: CV hurricane which hits Puerto Rico as CAT I causing decent damage, threatens to strike the NC Outer Banks as major hurricane but turns away before landfall only causing rough surf and one drowning death. (August 22-September 1)
Tropical Storm Karis: Short lived system (August 28-29)
More to come...
I trust it synoptics. Not its ability to develop cyclones. If it lets me down I will be wrong. Won't be the first. At this point in time-just another solution to consider. Considering we ain't got squat yet!
; -)
busy as always...lol...you know me, work, gardening, church (and our theme for VBS was firefighters so I had to build another firetruck lol), and of course my youngest one (who has just turned 7 in May)...busy busy...how bout you?
I don't think he's the right one to point the "safe" finger at though...he makes the most daring medium- long-range forecasts in the business.
I would prefer any storms that may come into the gulf this year to make landfall as a nice big depression!! We can do without the damage, but really need the rain pretty much all around!!
Hiya Baha - little guy was our guide all through Europe, then for a while when we moved back here. Then got a new car and tried to move him. Let's just say, in THE END, he couldn't bear to completely part with the dashboard. :)
p.s. Hey there Dewey
busy busy busy...how bout you? that big bald guy at your church can tell you all about us lol...but ask him about you and he looks at me like I have 3 heads lol...how bout you?
Is Dora pulling a Castanza? Now THAT would be a miracle!
we're all good...
Indeed! We really could use a weak tropical system here in SE Texas. The only thing really likely to break the drought in the next few months.
Thanks. In total it's a hyperactive season but still less than 2005 yet close. There will be a late-season twist up the US Eastern Seaboard--the name? Based on an evil cartoon character with an 'S' can you guess?
animate
Doing good! Just trying to keep my garden alive in this heat! Working hard as usual, just trying to get things ready in case the gulf takes a hit.
True.......Now how many times has he been "absolutely" correct with a very bold guess that was never raised by NHC or the Models?....I don't know the answer but I would would argue that it was a lucky, albeit, educated guess.......
It's true. Always gotta get some squat first. However, are you really comfortable hanging your forecasts on the GFS all the time? For example, Cape Verde storms in August-September are almost always north-casted by the entire model suite in their early stages. With this knowledge, are you really going to stick with the early model packages every time?
I have a problem with
Hurricane Harris: CV hurricane which hits Jamaica as CAT II, Cuba as CAT III then rapidly intensifies into CAT V before landfall in South Florida causing catastrophic damage and 136 fatalities total. (August 12-24)
Seems an unusual path for that time of year; what kind of synoptics were u thinking about to produce this track? And if u say S FL, are u thinking Naples or Miami side?
Interesting proposition, though.
Baha and Tigeriffic Thanks for answering my questions, I've been sitting back just reading like usual hardly ever post. I've been doing fine, just working, I have 3 grandbabies know all boys 3ys,6months and 6 1/2 months, trying to help the kids. But I love my sweet boys. How have u been? you ready for hurricane season, i see where they been saying the sahara dust is bad and that may hamper the season a little. Which I don't know after all this time here i am still learning. I am so glad we finally got rain this past weekend, i think our grass grew 2" and went from brown to green.
sheri
I would also raise the question as to whether you actually paid to see his opinions every single day for 9 years? You can't really be a judge otherwise.
Between Marco Island and Everglades City on a path directly over Fort Lauderdale.
understand about the garden...mine took a hard hit this year...i mean HARD...as far as the season goes... always trying to make sure that i keep an eye out...husband's business would boom, mine would shut down, so always pretty much ready for it
Bret hanging at 45 mph
I'll be going down in a couple of weeks. Need to get the kids to children's museum before school starts back up.
I agree, thank you. I'm curious, do you make these in Windows? I ask because for me in Windows it's a real pain to create such things lol. However, in linux it's simple to design a script to do the work.
Location: 36.3°N 51.6°W
Max sustained: 50 mph
Moving: NE at 23 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Bret hasnt update yet... hmm...
Stewie.
I have succeeded in installing Gimp on Windoze and building animated gifs.
http://www.gimp.org/windows/
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