Famine declared due to drought in Somalia; U.S. heat wave shifts east
The main rainy season rains have failed again in the Horn of Africa--the region of East Africa comprising Somalia, Kenya, and Ethiopia. Rainfall over most of the Horn of Africa between February and July 2011 was 2 - 8 inches (50 - 200 mm) below average, leading to today's official declaration that famine conditions now exist. The region is experiencing a humanitarian emergency with more than 2 million malnourished children needing lifesaving action. The Horn of Africa has two rainy seasons, a main rainy season in April/May, and then the "short rains" of October/November. The main 2010 April/May rainy season brought above average rains to the region. However, the October/November 2010 "short rains" failed, as did the April/May 2011 main rainy season rains. The failure of two consecutive rainy seasons is a devastating blow for East Africa. African countries are highly dependent on rain-fed agriculture for both employment and economic production, with agriculture accounting for more than 50% of gross domestic product and up to 90% of employment across much of the continent (World Development Indicators 2009, World Bank). One third of the population of Africa lives in drought-prone areas (World Water Forum, 2000), and about 25% of the population of Africa currently experiences high water stress. Remarkably, several nations in East Africa have been selling their land to other countries to raise food for export in recent years. These nations include Ethiopia and Sudan, who both receive massive food aid from the U.N. World Food Program. According to the fascinating and sobering book, World on the Edge by Lester Brown, in January 2009, Saudi Arabia celebrated the arrival of the first shipment of rice on land they had acquired in Ethiopia, where the World Food Program was feeding 5 million people at the time. Saudi Arabia has been actively buying land in other countries to raise crops since the recent failure of agriculture in their country after they pumped their aquifers dry. India, South Korea, and Saudi Arabia have all brought land to grow crops in Sudan, which was the site of the World Food Program's largest famine relief effort in 2010. The world is running short of food, and nations that cannot feed themselves are aggressively competing to buy land to grow food where land costs are low, like East Africa.
Figure 1. Rainfall over most of the Horn of Africa between February and July 2011 was 2 - 8 inches (50 - 200 mm) below average, leading to a deadly drought in the region. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
Another day of dangerous heat in the Midwest
The dangerous Central U.S. heat wave of July 2011 will continue to bring another day of exceptionally humid heat to the Midwest today, and will also begin bringing temperatures in the mid-90s with high humidity to much of the mid-Atlantic and New England. The heat index--how hot the air feels when factoring in both the temperature and the humidity--exceeded 100°F in sixteen states in the center of the country on Tuesday, with the dangerous heat extending from Texas northwards to North Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. At least thirteen deaths are being blamed on the heat in the Midwest. The heat index hit a torrid 129°F at Newton, Iowa on Tuesday, and a heat index in excess of 120° was recorded at several locations in North Dakota, Iowa, Illinois, and Minnesota.
Figure 2. Predicted maximum heat index for Friday, July 22, 2011. Portions of 35 states are predicted to have a heat index in excess of 100°, with a heat index in excess of 115° expected over large portions of Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware. Image credit: NOAA.
Heat wave headed to the Eastern U.S.
The extreme heat will shift slowly eastwards this week, peaking in Chicago today, Detroit and Pittsburgh on Thursday, and New York City and the mid-Atlantic states on Friday. The forecast high of 103° in Washington D.C. for Friday is just 3° below the hottest temperature ever recorded in the city, 106°. This will no doubt stimulate some predictable quotes on global warming. The heat will remain in place over the mid-Atlantic states through Sunday, then ease on Monday when a cold front is expected to pass through. Wunderground's climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood has some good insights on the current heat wave in his latest post.
Tropical Storm Bret no threat
Tropical Storm Bret continues to spin off the U.S. East Coast, but is a weak storm with 50 mph winds, and is not expected to affect any land areas. Wind shear is a high 20 - 25 knots, and is expected to remain in the high range for the next three days. The combination of high wind shear and dry air nearby should act to keep Bret from strengthening, and the storm should slowly decay as it heads out to sea over the next few days.
Invest 99L no threat
Satellite imagery suggests that a low pressure system near 34N, 55W, about 500 miles east of Bermuda, is close to tropical depression strength. This system, dubbed Invest 99L, has been given a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by NHC. The storm is headed east-northeastwards out to sea, and is not a threat to any land areas. The storm will move over cool ocean waters below 25°C by Thursday morning, so it has just a short window of time to develop.
An African wave worth watching
An African wave near 45W, midway between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, is currently generating a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms due to the presence of a large amount of dust and dry air from the Sahara. However, this wave has a modest degree of spin to it, and it is possible it could develop once it finds a moister environment near the Bahama Islands early next week. The last few runs of the UKMET model have shown development of this wave by Tuesday over the Bahamas. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models show that this wave will become a strong tropical disturbance by Tuesday over the Bahamas, while the GFS model shows no development. If this wave does develop, it may recurve before hitting the U.S., since the models agree that there will be a large trough of low pressure present over the U.S. East Coast early next week.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 — Blog Index
SYNOPSIS 2011072000
P07L
13N, 39W
925hPa
GFS has the weakest depiction of P07L. In an attempt to get as many forecast positions out of GFS, I dropped down to 925 hPa. However, it does not make much of a difference, especially for the other models, which have a distinct depiction of P07L at all three levels (700, 850, and 925 hPa).
ECMWF: ECMWF now looks more like UKMET, intensifying P07L.
GFS: Consistent story. Ignores the eastern development of an OW max, especially up at 700 hPa. However, today I tracked down at 925 hPa because the pouch is more clearly defined now at lower levels. The story for GFS remains the same, though: A large, distinct pouch at analysis gradually dissipates as it moves toward the Caribbean.
UKMET: UKMET remains consistent: Develops a tropical storm with a track that stays farther north than that of weakening GFS.
NOGAPS: For the past few days, NOGAPS has killed P07L. Today, NOGAPS maintains it until 120 hours.
ECMWF -9.2 v7/8/9 & RH/TPW 120h
GFS -9.4 v7/8 & RH/TPW 120h
UKMET -9.2 v7/8/9 & RH 120h
NOGAPS -8.4 v7/8/9 & RH 120h
So, Tropical Storm Bret is still hanging on? He's really persistent, and it will be interesting to see what happens with shear beginning to weaken tomorrow. Maybe he'll surprise us, he's impresses us so far. Satellite shows it may be on its decline now.
Invest 99L is unofficially a tropical depression, and has been one since yesterday afternoon. Whether or not it is declared is up to the National Hurricane Center, although they do at least show some interest to it.
Lastly, I'm a bit concerned about this wave in the central Atlantic. It is large and broad right now, but models have been on and off with development, and as Levi said in his video, unless timing is perfect, this could be a threat to the USA, specifically, Florida. Of course, development is no guarantee.
Why are we using our food in our gas tanks? When there is not enough to eat?
Hmmmmm
There are a lot of ifs with this system. It may never develop at all, but it should be watched.
NAEFS Ensemble MSLP and Spread, Day 9:
great update as ususal. quick question for you. weren't most of the hurricane forecasters predicting less troughs recurving storms out to sea? still seems like they are very prevalent. just wanted to get your thoughts on this with the meat of the hurricane season to go
Also, do you see any similarities with this season compared to 2004 and 2005? Thanks Levi
By Sharon O'Brien,
As summer temperatures climb in some parts of the U.S., more people are vulnerable to heat exhaustion and heat stroke.
The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) report that approximately 400 people die each year from excessive natural heat, and that these deaths are preventable.
And while seniors are more likely to be affected by high temperatures and heat-related problems than younger people, heat exhaustion and heat stroke can affect anyone if the conditions are right.
This includes animals. Please provide shade and plenty of cool, fresh drinking water for your pets, and never leave a pet, child or elderly person in a locked car on hot days.
I'm not supposed to have heat indices over 110 ºF on my birthday! :(
It's too early to make a judgement call on the trough frequency. The hurricane season pattern generally comes to light in August when the storm bursts start coming in earnest (or not). This is because August and September are when upward motion in the tropical Atlantic is strongest, and the coupling between the tropical pattern and the mid-latitude pattern forms the late summer/fall setup. In years similar to 2011, there were generally fewer troughs available to recurve storms. There are also signs this year that the ridge will show itself again, but of course that isn't guaranteed. Some of the same signs were there last year, but we got a trough instead of a ridge.
As for 2004, and 2005, they are not good analogs for this season in general, though the steering pattern in each was exhibited in the true analogs for 2011, specifically the ridging over southeast Canada that steered storms towards land in both of those seasons. No matter what this season brings, though, folks should be prepared. It doesn't matter whether forecasts of more or less landfalls come true. It only takes one.
Where at?
There's a thousand things that need to happen in order and we are on number 8, you all are off talking about number 692.
U have the numbers on the last 5 rainy seasons over dere stashed som ere'?
EEK... Glad it's a long way out and much can change as that looks like a rather potent cyclone there.
Drought trends to stay drought,,seems,unless other "Global" forcings are playing a increasing role.
Can we identify these?
He who is afraid to take on number 692 is a stopping block to progress.
Indeed. And with warming increasing, droughts such as Somalia's will become both more frequent and more widespread. We can only hope to become better stewards of our limited resources ASAP; otherwise, it's becoming clearer that a Malthusian nightmare of our own foolishness awaits.
Possibly. But I was referring to something else; please see my comment #32.
Adeptly forecasting rainfall for a small area almost a year out would be impressive.
* Bret
* 99L?
* Tropical Wave (C ATL/E ATL)?
okey dokey
Yes.
Means my original forecast was right with 3 in July if that verifies.
aren't the models seeing a landfalling system too for Florida, so how are they agreeing on a strong pressure protecting the southeast coast if they also seeing it striking florida?
Viewing: 1 - 51
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 — Blog Index