Hurricane Beatriz slams into Mexico; heavy rains, tornadoes hit the Midwest
Hurricane Beatriz plowed into the Pacific coast of Mexico near La Fortuna this morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds, bringing very heavy rains and mudslides to a 200-mile stretch of coast. Acapulco reported 5.20" of rain yesterday, and one injury due to a falling free. Hurricane-force winds extend outwards 25 miles from the center of Beatriz, and these winds are likely to cause moderate damage along a 200-mile stretch of the Mexican coast today as the storm moves northwestwards towards Cabo Corrientes. However, the primary threat from the storm will be heavy rain, and the expected rains of 6 - 12" are likely to cause very dangerous flooding and mudslides today and Wednesday morning. Satellite loops reveal that Beatriz weakened significantly over the past few hours, once the eye moved over land. The mountainous terrain of coastal Mexico will continue to tear up the storm today, and Beatriz will likely be a weak tropical storm by the time it moves back out to sea on Wednesday.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Beatriz over the Pacific coast of Mexico taken at 9:30am EDT June 21, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Tornadoes, heavy rain slam the Midwest
Severe thunderstorms rumbled through a wide section of the Midwest yesterday, generating numerous tornadoes, baseball-sized hail, and heavy flooding rains. The storm also brought heavy snow to the mountains of Colorado above 9,500 feet, an unusual occurrence for so late in June. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged 43 preliminary tornado reports yesterday in Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, Texas, and North Dakota. The tornadoes mostly avoided populated areas, and only sporadic damage was reported. Perhaps the most significant impact of the storm was the large area of 1 - 4 inches of rain it dropped on Nebraska and South Dakota. This rain will run off into the Missouri River, further aggravating the flooding that has breached two levees and overtopped two other levees in the past week. The large, slow-moving low pressure system responsible for the rains and severe weather will bring additional heavy rains of 1 - 3 inches over portions of the Missouri River watershed today, and will touch off a new round of severe weather today and Wednesday as the storm progresses slowly eastwards. However, the Storm Prediction Center is issuing only their "Slight Risk" forecast for severe weather for both days.
Figure 2. Radar reflectivity image of a supercell thunderstorm with a classic hook echo. The storm spawned a tornado that hit Elm Creek, Nebraska yesterday. The tornado ripped the roofs off of several houses and tore down power lines.
The Atlantic is quiet
The Atlantic is quiet, with no tropical cyclones predicted over the next seven days by the reliable computer models.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I do WAIT WATCH SEE Keeper. You almost sound like you're wishcasting there, did JFV steal your name?
When I'm up wityh everyone else here watching the hunter data scare the living bejeezus out of us, at 2am, I'll be a believer.
The inclination is toward a danger in the continental US. I will admit I am just a newbie compared to Levi and the rest but if you look at all the factors, it does seem over the long term that the gulf might have a few surprises in store for the 2011 season.
I'm well aware of that Taz. That's why I said in most regards. Ike had surge comparable to a low end Category 5.
You are right - We cannot tell what it is going to be like in terms of landfalls on the USA this early in the season. BUT, several factors point to an active landfall year, which makes me believe that there will indeed be several USA landfalls.
Ike's surge damage was mostly due to it's size, and the area where the water piled into. The water had no where to go.
Land Ike on the east coast of Fla, there's have been little to no surge like what it had.
You're spray-painting apples and calling them oranges.
we're in agreement on that, Keeper. But numerous conus landfalls? doubtful.
Where did THAT come from?!
But aren't seasonal predictions headed that way?
I said in most regards Ike was a major hurricane, BESIDES Ike was a 110 mph hurricane at landfall, the threshold for a Category 3 is 111, are you honestly going to tell me that's going to make much of a difference with wind damage? I am well aware of why Ike's surge was so high, because of what you stated. It rated very high on the .I.K.E scale.
Seasonal predictions? For high numbers, yeah. For landfalls? doubtful. Everyone got themselves into a tizzy over last year's setup, and look how that panned out.
It is like was just stated, there's a 50/50 chance of landfalls. Last year's setup was based on timing, and we almost got walloped by a Category 4 just by a hundred miles or so, Earl. We're in a 5 year drought of major hurricanes hitting the United States, and 2 year drought for hurricanes actually striking the US too, we're going to run out of luck eventually. Neutral years favor multiple US landfalls, La Nina years like 2007 & 2010 don't have as many US landfalls as years like 2005 and 2008 do.
And this is why the folks smarter than me, are constantly argueing for a better ranking/rating system for hurricanes. Yes, Cat 3 is considered a major. Ike was bad, no doubt about it. But it was no Andrew or Ivan, which I thought by your mention of Cat5, you were implying. Ike never got itself all wound up good. It was too big.
I am not so sure. The 2008 season, one of our analogue years, had 6 tropical cyclone (TS and hurricane) landfalls. Another analogue year, 1999, had 5 tropical cyclone landfalls. The 1996 season, another analogue year, had 4 tropical cyclone landfalls. To top of this post, 1955, one of our analogue years, featured 5 tropical cyclone landfalls.
So in sum, there is consistency with multiple tropical cyclone landfalls on the USA for this season.
You just contradicted yourself. There is no correlation between this years storms that form and the fact that we haven't had a landfalling hurricane here in the US since 2008. Hugo hit here in Charleston in 1989 and it'll be 22 years this September. Yes, another hurricane will hit Charleston some day, but it's a 50/50 chance every year. If we get hit this year, it doesn't lower the chance that we get hit in 2012.
I didn't say anything about us not having a landfalling hurricane here in the USA since 2008.
'nuff said.
I agree, no seasons are alike. And your correct in saying that we simply don't know what setup is going to be in place to have US landfalls.
The 00z model run package will be important to see if they continue to show development.
18z NOGAPS 180 hours, TS or Category 1 in the GOMEX. (take with a grain of salt)
Link
12z CMC, TS over the Yucatan at 144 hours.
18z GFS ensembles indicate a low in the SW BOC too.
Look at the lower pressures in the CATL on the GFS
Looks cold core to me.
I didnt mean up north, I meant by the ITCZ
Okay, could the energy that the models are hitting on be that pop of moisture that has weened itself off of Beatriz in the EPAC?
Wow, that shows some serious warming in the GOM!
If Beatriz fell apart sooner than the models forecasted, thus the moisture that we are seeing doing the cross continent movement could be what they are forming in the Bay of Campeche. However it would be forming earlier than expected.
The models are all showing lower pressures (and higher amounts of precipitation) in the BOC the rest of the week however the system that develops into what becomes ''Arlene'' on the models appears to come from the Western Caribbean.
Which is noted by the 12Z CMC @ 144 hours.
The game is afoot! /sherlockholmes
(and about time, too.)
Shary?
Danny had some interaction with an upper level trough during his creation (but was a tropical wave).
Grace in 2009 of course was none of those three, coming from an extratropical cyclone or some sort (Laura in 2008 was also in this category, I think).
Yes, Grace came from a large extratropical cyclone that came from a Cold Front. This is the same way that Tropical Storm Laura of 2008 formed also.
MAN, that is a heck of a lot of dry air.
Break out more than that Pat if NOGAPS is on tap with that bomb
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