Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Hurricane Beatriz slams into Mexico; heavy rains, tornadoes hit the Midwest
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 02:34 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011 +7
Hurricane Beatriz plowed into the Pacific coast of Mexico near La Fortuna this morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds, bringing very heavy rains and mudslides to a 200-mile stretch of coast. Acapulco reported 5.20" of rain yesterday, and one injury due to a falling free. Hurricane-force winds extend outwards 25 miles from the center of Beatriz, and these winds are likely to cause moderate damage along a 200-mile stretch of the Mexican coast today as the storm moves northwestwards towards Cabo Corrientes. However, the primary threat from the storm will be heavy rain, and the expected rains of 6 - 12" are likely to cause very dangerous flooding and mudslides today and Wednesday morning. Satellite loops reveal that Beatriz weakened significantly over the past few hours, once the eye moved over land. The mountainous terrain of coastal Mexico will continue to tear up the storm today, and Beatriz will likely be a weak tropical storm by the time it moves back out to sea on Wednesday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Beatriz over the Pacific coast of Mexico taken at 9:30am EDT June 21, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Tornadoes, heavy rain slam the Midwest
Severe thunderstorms rumbled through a wide section of the Midwest yesterday, generating numerous tornadoes, baseball-sized hail, and heavy flooding rains. The storm also brought heavy snow to the mountains of Colorado above 9,500 feet, an unusual occurrence for so late in June. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged 43 preliminary tornado reports yesterday in Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, Texas, and North Dakota. The tornadoes mostly avoided populated areas, and only sporadic damage was reported. Perhaps the most significant impact of the storm was the large area of 1 - 4 inches of rain it dropped on Nebraska and South Dakota. This rain will run off into the Missouri River, further aggravating the flooding that has breached two levees and overtopped two other levees in the past week. The large, slow-moving low pressure system responsible for the rains and severe weather will bring additional heavy rains of 1 - 3 inches over portions of the Missouri River watershed today, and will touch off a new round of severe weather today and Wednesday as the storm progresses slowly eastwards. However, the Storm Prediction Center is issuing only their "Slight Risk" forecast for severe weather for both days.


Figure 2. Radar reflectivity image of a supercell thunderstorm with a classic hook echo. The storm spawned a tornado that hit Elm Creek, Nebraska yesterday. The tornado ripped the roofs off of several houses and tore down power lines.

The Atlantic is quiet
The Atlantic is quiet, with no tropical cyclones predicted over the next seven days by the reliable computer models.

Jeff Masters
Rainbow Over Mt. Sopris (enghorn)
Rainbow Over Mt. Sopris
Categories: Tornado Hurricane
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351. islander101010 10:07 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
august is always fun on the boards
Member Since: Settembre 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2968
352. VAbeachhurricanes 10:07 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Not the place for that, even if you noted that it was off-topic.


Theres nothing going on, god knows that we talk about worse on here haha
Member Since: Settembre 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4801
353. weatherh98 10:07 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
The sky is falltting!!! The sky is falling, oh wait just rain
Member Since: Giugno 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6091
355. weatherh98 10:08 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
thesky is falling th sky is falling!!!!! oh wait im sorry that just rain!!!!
Member Since: Giugno 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6091
356. weatherh98 10:09 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Quoting Patrap:





Roll Green Wave,,Uptown


tiger bait tiger bait
Member Since: Giugno 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6091
357. druseljic 10:10 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Quoting weatherh98:
thesky is falling th sky is falling!!!!! oh wait im sorry that just rain!!!!


Wow, you posted that twice, I guess you're in one of the areas that needs the rain :-)
Member Since: Agosto 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 649
358. Patrap 10:10 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111516
359. Patrap 10:11 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Quoting weatherh98:


tiger bait tiger bait


Daughter @ LSU school of Nursing

Geaux Tigah's..!

Saturdays can be Loud here in da Fall
Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111516
360. TropicalAnalystwx13 10:12 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Member Since: Luglio 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25315
361. StAugustineFL 10:17 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Need to make it through one more day then much needed relief is in the offing.

NWS JAX discussion:

THURS/FRI...THE GOOD NEWS IS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT SOUTH. THE INTERACTION OF INCREASING MOISTURE
AND ARRIVAL OF LOBES OF PVA WILL BRING INCREASING COVERAGE OF
PRECIP...WITH NUMEROUS SHRA/STORMS EXPECTED THURS AFTN. PWATS WILL
INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR HIGHER ON FRI WITH SCTD TO NUM DIURNAL
SHRA/STORMS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
WEEKEND...IN RESPONSE TO LARGE ANTICYCLONE ANCHORING OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN US...ALLOWING FOR A LARGE SCALE TROUGH TO ESTABLISH
OVER THE EASTERN US. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO AND COUPLED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE...EXPECT SCTD TO NUM
SHRA/STORMS TO DEVELOP EACH DAY. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INITIATE
ALONG THE GULF COAST SEABREEZE DUE TO A PREVAILING SOUTHWEST
FLOW. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL DEFICITS WILL CONTINUE...MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL WILL AT LEAST MITIGATE THE EFFECTS OF THE ONGOING DROUGHT.
Member Since: Marzo 8, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 573
362. 1900hurricane 10:17 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Dang, that's a big watch to stretch across Texas like that! I'm just south of it in the rain dead-zone known as College Station.
Member Since: Agosto 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10366
364. 1900hurricane 10:23 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
I'm going to guess that the thermometer in Death Valley is a little... off.

Link
Member Since: Agosto 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10366
365. PcolaDan 10:25 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Quoting 1900hurricane:
I'm going to guess that the thermomiter in Death Valley is a little... off.

Link


It went to 100 and started over. :)
Member Since: Agosto 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008
366. PlazaRed 10:27 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Quoting twincomanche:
Who cares.


I suppose there are 2 ways to look at it at least and lots more if we want to.
We can descend into contemplating the newest pop stars taste in shades of eye shadow next?
Or we could speculate on the outcomes of an assortment of powerful storms that wont affect the Americas
Not a baiting troll in sight tonight, to laugh at?
Member Since: Gennaio 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1442
367. Tazmanian 10:29 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
firefox 5 is out
Member Since: Maggio 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111354
368. beell 10:31 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Quoting 1900hurricane:
I'm going to guess that the thermometer in Death Valley is a little... off.

Link


Dr. M jumped on one late night about a week ago to report that the station was offline while they were doing some remodeling. Accuweather continued to report the temperature from this location based on a "correction" applied to the Las Vegas temperature. Quite a few errors of 10° F or more.

The link that accompanied his post.
Link
Member Since: Settembre 11, 2007 Posts: 125 Comments: 12883
369. StAugustineFL 10:31 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Quoting 1900hurricane:
I'm going to guess that the thermometer in Death Valley is a little... off.

Link


Sure is at 14F. Fitting name though - Furnace Creek.
Member Since: Marzo 8, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 573
371. Tazmanian 10:35 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Quoting 1900hurricane:
I'm going to guess that the thermometer in Death Valley is a little... off.

Link




yup


but if it was real then evere one in the uesa would be heading there right now LOL
Member Since: Maggio 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111354
372. Rmadillo 10:37 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Quoting StAugustineFL:


Sure is at 14F. Fitting name though - Furnace Creek.


So if you add 14 to 100, the temp oughtta be about right. Unless of course this was the second time it hit 100, so then we're at 214.
Member Since: Maggio 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 102
373. TropicalAnalystwx13 10:38 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
For those of you who want tropical cyclone development, ask Dr. Masters to go on vacation. There is this theory that has arose over the past few seasons that when Dr. Masters goes on vacation, we get tropical cyclone formation. It turned out to be true a lot of last season too.
Member Since: Luglio 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25315
374. druseljic 10:39 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Quoting Tazmanian:
firefox 5 is out

Dancing in circles then off to download!!!
Member Since: Agosto 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 649
375. PcolaDan 10:40 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Quoting twincomanche:
Big storms rolling across the mid section again.


Member Since: Agosto 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008
376. DEKRE 10:40 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Quoting Tazmanian:




yup


but if it was real then evere one in the uesa would be heading there right now LOL


The windchill of 14°F is probably right at 8% humidity - even though fairly academic
Member Since: Aprile 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 306
377. clwstmchasr 10:45 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
So the latest GFS wants to develop low pressure in the BOC in 7 days. Then it takes into Mexico just like last year. Hmmmmm.
Member Since: Luglio 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2755
378. PlazaRed 10:47 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
I am a bit concerned about the state of the upper mid west as you would call it as there are still a lot of heavy looking systems coming through now and over the last few weeks. This problem with rivers at ''historical,'' high levels can lead to all sorts of undercuts in the levies and from my engineering experience the worst bank/erosion problems occur as the river levels start to fall and the banks/levies begin to drop into the water.Maybe its different in the US? I have no guidelines.
We once lost 10 acres in a night, at our place,{in Europe,} as the river was falling, ''no problem with the river high.'' The morning after we had ''Roman,'' corrals in site in the new river bed, covered in silt and stones for centuries.
Member Since: Gennaio 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1442
379. Tazmanian 10:48 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Quoting druseljic:

Dancing in circles then off to download!!!





how you like it ?
Member Since: Maggio 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111354
380. druseljic 10:48 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Quoting clwstmchasr:
So the latest GFS wants to develop low pressure in the BOC in 7 days. Then it takes into Mexico just like last year. Hmmmmm.


Last year we had conditions warranting the storms staying to the south, are those factors still in place for 2011?
Member Since: Agosto 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 649
381. stormwatcherCI 10:48 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Current Weather Conditions:
San Andres Isla / Sesquicentenario, Colombia
(SKSP) 12-35N 081-43W 6M
Conditions at

2011.06.21 2200 UTC
Wind from the ENE (070 degrees) at 8 MPH (7 KT)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Temperature 82 F (28 C)
Dew Point 78 F (26 C)
Relative Humidity 88%
Pressure (altimeter) 20.79 in. Hg (704 hPa)
ob SKSP 212200Z 07007KT 9999 FEW014 BKN080 28/26 A2079 REDZ
Something is wrong here for sure LOL.

Pressure is falling in the SW Caribbean.
Member Since: Ottobre 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8040
382. TropicalAnalystwx13 10:50 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Quoting druseljic:


Last year we had conditions warranting the storms staying to the south, are those factors still in place for 2011?


No, this season the pattern will most likely favor USA landfalls.
Member Since: Luglio 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25315
384. druseljic 10:51 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Quoting Tazmanian:





how you like it ?


Good so far ;-)
Member Since: Agosto 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 649
385. CybrTeddy 10:52 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
18z GFS wants this to be a 1004 mb system by next Tuesday (7 days)
Member Since: Luglio 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20255
386. Rmadillo 10:54 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


No, this season the pattern will most likely favor USA landfalls.


oh PLEASE. Really.

REALLY??
Member Since: Maggio 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 102
387. CybrTeddy 10:57 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Quoting Rmadillo:


oh PLEASE. Really.

REALLY??


He's correct, this pattern in place is similar to years like 2008. US landfalls are likely this year, and besides it would be unprecedented to have a 3 year drought and a 6 year drought of no hurricanes and major hurricanes respectively not hitting the USA (though in most regards, Gustav and Ike where majors at landfalls)
Member Since: Luglio 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20255
388. Chucktown 11:02 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


No, this season the pattern will most likely favor USA landfalls.


You can't tell what is going to happen with the trough and ridge pattern when a storm approaches the coast. As unscientific as it sounds (and I'm a met), you have a 50/50 chance of getting hit, either you do or you don't. Just be prepared. I don't care where the Bermuda High is now or what the NAO is doing or what the pattern has been up to this point, you don't know what the synoptic setup will be in August and September. Its always timing.
Member Since: Agosto 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1390
389. Tazmanian 11:03 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
re post



firefox 5 is out



if you are still uesing firefox 4.0 plzs upgrade or downlode firefox 5.0 today !



all so firefox 4.0 is at the end of it life



i sure hop some of you guys are still not on firefox 3.5 or 3.6 LOL
Member Since: Maggio 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111354
390. AllStar17 11:03 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Member Since: Giugno 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5135
391. Tazmanian 11:03 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Quoting druseljic:


Good so far ;-)



good
Member Since: Maggio 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111354
392. CybrTeddy 11:03 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Quoting CybrTeddy:


He's correct, this pattern in place is similar to years like 2008. US landfalls are likely this year, and besides it would be unprecedented to have a 3 year drought and a 6 year drought of no hurricanes and major hurricanes respectively not hitting the USA (though in most regards, Gustav and Ike where majors at landfalls)


Correction - I shouldn't say likely but the pattern in place that has been in place in previous years like this have featured US landfalls.
Member Since: Luglio 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20255
393. beell 11:04 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Quoting DEKRE:


The windchill of 14°F is probably right at 8% humidity - even though fairly academic


I thought the NWS Windchill Temperature (WCT) index did not use humidity in the calculation.
Member Since: Settembre 11, 2007 Posts: 125 Comments: 12883
394. EtexJC 11:04 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Quoting BEENE:
Any hope for Texas? Seems like we are still stuck in this no rain pattern here in Houston.


After last night's 2am wakeup THUNDERBOOM and Lightining show here in DFW....i'll just take a nice Seattle rain today, but west Tx is looking crazy.... :(
Member Since: Agosto 17, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 218
395. Tazmanian 11:04 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Quoting CybrTeddy:


He's correct, this pattern in place is similar to years like 2008. US landfalls are likely this year, and besides it would be unprecedented to have a 3 year drought and a 6 year drought of no hurricanes and major hurricanes respectively not hitting the USA (though in most regards, Gustav and Ike where majors at landfalls)





ike was olny 110mph at land fall same thing for gustav
Member Since: Maggio 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111354
396. Rmadillo 11:04 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
AB high hasn't signed a lease yet, ridging's been rough thru the lower fortyeight and points south. can't say we won;t see somehting like a felix before it's all over, but a US landfall? Can't see much worse than a high end cat 1 at best.

JMO
Member Since: Maggio 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 102
397. atmoaggie 11:06 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Quoting beell:


I thought the NWS Windchill Temperature (WCT) index did not use humidity in the calculation.
Correct.
Member Since: Agosto 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
398. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 11:07 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Quoting Rmadillo:


oh PLEASE. Really.

REALLY??
AND THEY COME ONE AFTER ANOTHER ROARING ACROSS THE SEA TO BRING WITH THEM DEATH AND DESTRUCTION JUST YOU WAIT WATCH SEE
Member Since: Luglio 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40574
399. druseljic 11:09 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
AND THEY COME ONE AFTER ANOTHER ROARING ACROSS THE SEA TO BRING WITH THEM DEATH AND DESTRUCTION JUST YOU WAIT WATCH SEE


Although I agree with you, that statement makes me want to run and hide. It really could be that kind of year, huh?
Member Since: Agosto 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 649
400. clwstmchasr 11:10 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Quoting druseljic:


Last year we had conditions warranting the storms staying to the south, are those factors still in place for 2011?


I was kind of asking that question myself.
Member Since: Luglio 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2755
401. Rmadillo 11:12 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
AND THEY COME ONE AFTER ANOTHER ROARING ACROSS THE SEA TO BRING WITH THEM DEATH AND DESTRUCTION JUST YOU WAIT WATCH SEE

I do WAIT WATCH SEE Keeper. You almost sound like you're wishcasting there, did JFV steal your name?

When I'm up wityh everyone else here watching the hunter data scare the living bejeezus out of us, at 2am, I'll be a believer.
Member Since: Maggio 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 102

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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