Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Hurricane Beatriz slams into Mexico; heavy rains, tornadoes hit the Midwest
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 02:34 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011 +7
Hurricane Beatriz plowed into the Pacific coast of Mexico near La Fortuna this morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds, bringing very heavy rains and mudslides to a 200-mile stretch of coast. Acapulco reported 5.20" of rain yesterday, and one injury due to a falling free. Hurricane-force winds extend outwards 25 miles from the center of Beatriz, and these winds are likely to cause moderate damage along a 200-mile stretch of the Mexican coast today as the storm moves northwestwards towards Cabo Corrientes. However, the primary threat from the storm will be heavy rain, and the expected rains of 6 - 12" are likely to cause very dangerous flooding and mudslides today and Wednesday morning. Satellite loops reveal that Beatriz weakened significantly over the past few hours, once the eye moved over land. The mountainous terrain of coastal Mexico will continue to tear up the storm today, and Beatriz will likely be a weak tropical storm by the time it moves back out to sea on Wednesday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Beatriz over the Pacific coast of Mexico taken at 9:30am EDT June 21, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Tornadoes, heavy rain slam the Midwest
Severe thunderstorms rumbled through a wide section of the Midwest yesterday, generating numerous tornadoes, baseball-sized hail, and heavy flooding rains. The storm also brought heavy snow to the mountains of Colorado above 9,500 feet, an unusual occurrence for so late in June. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged 43 preliminary tornado reports yesterday in Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, Texas, and North Dakota. The tornadoes mostly avoided populated areas, and only sporadic damage was reported. Perhaps the most significant impact of the storm was the large area of 1 - 4 inches of rain it dropped on Nebraska and South Dakota. This rain will run off into the Missouri River, further aggravating the flooding that has breached two levees and overtopped two other levees in the past week. The large, slow-moving low pressure system responsible for the rains and severe weather will bring additional heavy rains of 1 - 3 inches over portions of the Missouri River watershed today, and will touch off a new round of severe weather today and Wednesday as the storm progresses slowly eastwards. However, the Storm Prediction Center is issuing only their "Slight Risk" forecast for severe weather for both days.


Figure 2. Radar reflectivity image of a supercell thunderstorm with a classic hook echo. The storm spawned a tornado that hit Elm Creek, Nebraska yesterday. The tornado ripped the roofs off of several houses and tore down power lines.

The Atlantic is quiet
The Atlantic is quiet, with no tropical cyclones predicted over the next seven days by the reliable computer models.

Jeff Masters
Rainbow Over Mt. Sopris (enghorn)
Rainbow Over Mt. Sopris
Categories: Tornado Hurricane
  Permalink | A A A
Reader Comments
Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted
Viewing: 51 - 101

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18Blog Index

51. TropicalAnalystwx13 04:09 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
The next named storm to look for in the Eastern Pacific basin is Calvin. None of the reliable forecast models develop it in the next 5-7 days, although the CMC does hint at an area of low pressure forming and moving into the Mexican coastline. Other than that, it appears there will be a several day/week lull in tropical activity in the Pacific, which is when the Atlantic may get their action. The first named storm for the Atlantic will be Arlene, and the pattern will be conducive for development as we head into the last week of this month, and the first week of July.
Member Since: Luglio 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25290
52. aspectre 04:11 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
33 mbjjm "The NWS is undertaking research, once again this year, on how satisfied the public with their products and services and would appreciate your feedback. The purpose of this research is to help the NWS improve its services."

Bloody well QUIT TYPING IN ALL CAPS. It's annoying as all heck, and nearly unintelligible inre quick extraction of relevant data.
It makes the NWS and the NHC look like a buncha RAVING LUNATICS.

And the "international treaty obligations" excuse doesn't wash. Nothing in the treaty says they hafta print on the Web what they broadcast for teletype.
Heck I doubt that there's enough all-caps teletypes left in the world to make it worthwhile to repair them rather than replace them with modern equipment, let alone broadcast to them.
Member Since: Agosto 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4846
53. smartinwx 04:13 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Changing Tides: Research Center Under Fire for 'Adjusted' Sea-Level Data

Is climate change raising sea levels, as Al Gore has argued -- or are climate scientists doctoring the data?

The University of Colorado’s Sea Level Research Group decided in May to add 0.3 millimeters -- or about the thickness of a fingernail -- every year to its actual measurements of sea levels, sparking criticism from experts who called it an attempt to exaggerate the effects of global warming.

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2011/06/17/research -center-under-fire-for-adjusted-sea-level-data/#ix zz1Ph20wPD6
Member Since: Settembre 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 88
54. TropicalAnalystwx13 04:14 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
So far, the only impact from Beatriz that I can gather is:

* Landslides (1 injured)
* Heavy rain
* Winds ripping off roofs of houses
* Few cars swept out to sea
* Roundabout swept out by flood waters

Seems typical of a high-end Category 1 hurricane/low-end Category 2 hurricane.
Member Since: Luglio 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25290
55. Buhdog 04:21 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Looks like the East coast seabreeze in south florida is moving along pretty good! Could the west coast finally get some real rain? I THINK SO! Deep S/SE flow....please come west! Link
Member Since: Luglio 30, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 950
56. TropicalAnalystwx13 04:22 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Oh yeah...I forgot!


Happy Summer! :)
Member Since: Luglio 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25290
58. TropicalAnalystwx13 04:24 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Quoting alfabob:

But it would still be in 29C temperatures right now and even NHC was thinking it could intensify over the next 24 hours; I think the high pressure is the main influence on what dissipated it, lots of it being pumped in from the pacific.


The high pressure is coming from the ridge to its north, not from the Pacific, at least not entirely.
Member Since: Luglio 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25290
59. aspectre 04:24 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
53 smartinwx "blah blah blah blah blah..."

Precisely how many times do you guys hafta prove that you don't read this blog?
And how many times do you hafta prove that ya don't understand the article that you keep reposting?
Member Since: Agosto 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4846
60. TropicalAnalystwx13 04:28 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Definitely not a hurricane anymore...

Member Since: Luglio 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25290
61. clwstmchasr 04:28 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Quoting Buhdog:
Looks like the East coast seabreeze in south florida is moving along pretty good! Could the west coast finally get some real rain? I THINK SO! Deep S/SE flow....please come west! Link


I hope you are right. Pinellas county has had about 16% of June's rainfall so far.
Member Since: Luglio 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2755
63. smartinwx 04:34 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Quoting aspectre:
53 smartinwx "blah blah blah blah blah..."

Precisely how many times do you guys hafta prove you don't read this blog?
And how many times do you hafta prove that ya don't understand the article that you keep reposting?


What's to misunderstand about artificially increasing sea levels?
Member Since: Settembre 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 88
64. FLWeatherFreak91 04:38 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Quoting clwstmchasr:


I hope you are right. Pinellas county has had about 16% of June's rainfall so far.
NW Hillsborough is in the same boat as you. This is probably the driest June that I can remember. The ground has turned into dust and all of the area lakes are moderately low... looks like the pattern is changing on Thursday though! :)
Member Since: Dicembre 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3461
65. PcolaDan 04:39 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Member Since: Agosto 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008
66. cchsweatherman 04:43 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Quoting alfabob:

But it would still be in 29C temperatures right now and even NHC was thinking it could intensify over the next 24 hours; I think the high pressure is the main influence on what dissipated it, lots of it being pumped in from the pacific.


High pressure doesn't get pumped into an area. High pressure builds into an area as a result of the displacement of low pressure.

Member Since: Aprile 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 4926
67. MrMixon 04:44 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Quoting smartinwx:


What's to misunderstand about artificially increasing sea levels?


Yeah, how complicated can this climate science stuff possibly be...?

/sarcasm
Member Since: Marzo 26, 2006 Posts: 38 Comments: 965
68. cchsweatherman 04:44 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Quoting alfabob:

Possibly, but surface analysis shows low pressure to the north with high pressure moving in from the NW. Either way I was just looking at the stratocumulus clouds coming in and basically dissipating the entire thing. I guess hurricanes should be afraid of those clouds.


Tropical cyclones, no matter what the strength, will always weaken if caught within a stratocumulus cloud deck since stratocumulus clouds are the classic signature of a very stable, cooler atmosphere.
Member Since: Aprile 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 4926
70. PcolaDan 04:48 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Quoting NRAamy:
hey dashboard cowman...

:)

morning Kitty Car
Member Since: Agosto 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008
72. smartinwx 04:50 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Quoting MrMixon:


Yeah, how complicated can this climate science stuff possibly be...?

/sarcasm


Thanks for the in-depth answer. You really made your case. I stand corrected.
Member Since: Settembre 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 88
73. twhcracker 04:50 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Quoting cchsweatherman:


High pressure doesn't get pumped into an area. High pressure builds into an area as a result of the displacement of low pressure.



thats interesting. so why would a high just stick in one place all summer? they must be able to squeeze a low out of the way:0
Member Since: Luglio 30, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 1448
74. DDR 04:50 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Gfs is showing 4 inches in the space 48 hours over Trinidad and Tobago.not good at all!
Its been raining off and on past 4 days with over 5 inches measured.
Member Since: Aprile 27, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 1475
76. PcolaDan 04:53 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Quoting NRAamy:
you still baking in the hot sun?


A cool 90 today so far. I saw a cloud. :|
Member Since: Agosto 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008
77. wunderkidcayman 04:53 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
hey guys I was just looking at the GFS and it seem that after we get that system in the Gulf (possibly TS Arlene) we may get another system there after (possibly TS Bret)
GFS 06Z 384 H

I know don't really trust models after five day yes I know but I am just pointing out we could (if this pans out) see a burst of activity in that time frame
plus the 12Z run still showing
GFS 12Z 384 H
Member Since: Giugno 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5417
78. SLU 04:54 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Member Since: Luglio 13, 2006 Posts: 11 Comments: 2850
79. Torgen 04:56 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Quoting smartinwx:
Changing Tides: Research Center Under Fire for 'Adjusted' Sea-Level Data

Is climate change raising sea levels, as Al Gore has argued -- or are climate scientists doctoring the data?

The University of Colorado’s Sea Level Research Group decided in May to add 0.3 millimeters -- or about the thickness of a fingernail -- every year to its actual measurements of sea levels, sparking criticism from experts who called it an attempt to exaggerate the effects of global warming.

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2011/06/17/research -center-under-fire-for-adjusted-sea-level-data/#ix zz1Ph20wPD6


This biased article gets posted in this blog every day, and gets shot down with reality and facts every day, and the next day someone else finds this blog and reposts the same article again....
Member Since: Giugno 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 321
80. CybrTeddy 04:57 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
12z GFS 204 hrs out long range, once again showing a system in the GOMEX. If it pans out and we get model support behind it, it is possible we could have something to look at by next Tuesday in 7 days.


Member Since: Luglio 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20240
81. Neapolitan 04:59 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Quoting Torgen:


This biased article gets posted in this blog every day, and gets shot down with reality and facts every day, and the next day someone else finds this blog and reposts the same article again....

Indeed. I believe the following sums it up nicely:

Grasping at Straws (grass'-ping at strahz') - idiom1. to make a futile attempt at something when nothing else chosen has worked, nor is likely to.

;-)
Member Since: novembre 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11153
83. TropicalAnalystwx13 05:00 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
This is what we were looking at this time last year....What would become Alex with an Orange - 30% circle.

Member Since: Luglio 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25290
84. sarahjola 05:02 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys I was just looking at the GFS and it seem that after we get that system in the Gulf (possibly TS Arlene) we may get another system there after (possibly TS Bret)
GFS 06Z 384 H

I know don't really trust models after five day yes I know but I am just pointing out we could (if this pans out) see a burst of activity in that time frame
plus the 12Z run still showing
GFS 12Z 384 H

yeah i have noticed for the past 2 weeks its been calling for a storm to hit la/ms and its always on the weekend:(
Member Since: Settembre 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1291
85. JRRP 05:03 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    

nice
Member Since: Agosto 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4306
86. TropicalAnalystwx13 05:05 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
On the Eastern Pacific side, things were more active...



Celia was at 80 knots (90 mph), Blas at 30 knots (35 mph). Darby is the 40%-er.

Member Since: Luglio 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25290
87. unf97 05:07 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Quoting Jax82:
the smoke is doing circles in NEFL, getting nasty again.

IMG style="WIDTH: 500px; MAX-WIDTH: 501px" src="http://64.19.142.15/icons-ecast.wunderground. com/data/wximagenew/j/Jax82/55.gif"
jQuery1308675794531="29">



The smoke here in Jackosnville is just absolutely suffocating. What a miserable day to deal with it I can assure all of you of that. The smoke plus upper 90s heat is really miserable.
Member Since: Settembre 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
88. cchsweatherman 05:10 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Quoting twhcracker:


thats interesting. so why would a high just stick in one place all summer? they must be able to squeeze a low out of the way:0


High pressure usually sticks around in one place during the summer months due to the fact that low pressure systems usually brought into an area by the jet stream remain to the north, thus not able to shift the high pressure ridge.

Quoting alfabob:

Yea that is what someone was saying yesterday; by the high pressure being pumped I meant in terms of the stratocumulus clouds being pumped into the circulation. I just figured stratocumulus clouds meant high pressure.


Stratocumulus clouds typically form where high pressure and cooler surface and/or water exist. Pressure either rises or builds with high pressure and either falls or deepens with low pressure.
Member Since: Aprile 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 4926
92. Patrap 05:23 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Navy Captain and NASA Astronaut Mark Kelly to Retire from Active Duty and NASA effective 1 October.


The decision to retire will allow Kelly to spend more time with his family, and to continue to focus on his wife's recovery, he said.

"As life takes unexpected turns we frequently come to a crossroads," Kelly said. "I am at this point today. Gabrielle is working hard every day on her mission of recovery. I want to be by her side. Stepping aside from my work in the Navy and at NASA will allow me to be with her and with my two daughters. I love them all very much and there is no doubt that we will move forward together. After some time off, I will look at new opportunities and am hopeful that one day I will again serve our country.


Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111403
93. WoodyFL 05:27 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
test
Member Since: Aprile 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 442
94. SLU 05:28 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
NOGAPS onboard with development in the Gulf.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
Member Since: Luglio 13, 2006 Posts: 11 Comments: 2850
95. PcolaDan 05:29 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Quoting unf97:



The smoke here in Jackosnville is just absolutely suffocating. What a miserable day to deal with it I can assure all of you of that. The smoke plus upper 90s heat is really miserable.


UGH!!

Member Since: Agosto 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008
96. Grothar 05:31 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Quoting Patrap:
Navy Captain and NASA Astronaut Mark Kelly to Retire from Active Duty and NASA effective 1 October.


The decision to retire will allow Kelly to spend more time with his family, and to continue to focus on his wife's recovery, he said.

"As life takes unexpected turns we frequently come to a crossroads," Kelly said. "I am at this point today. Gabrielle is working hard every day on her mission of recovery. I want to be by her side. Stepping aside from my work in the Navy and at NASA will allow me to be with her and with my two daughters. I love them all very much and there is no doubt that we will move forward together. After some time off, I will look at new opportunities and am hopeful that one day I will again serve our country.




Nice article.
Member Since: Luglio 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19527
97. wunderkidcayman 05:31 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Quoting SLU:
NOGAPS onboard with development in the Gulf.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

can u post the link to that NOGAP model
Member Since: Giugno 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5417
98. MrMixon 05:31 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Quoting smartinwx:


Thanks for the in-depth answer. You really made your case. I stand corrected.


I reserve in-depth answers for honest questions.
Member Since: Marzo 26, 2006 Posts: 38 Comments: 965
100. TropicalAnalystwx13 05:34 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Okay...I'll post it...

...BEATRIZ WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...ALL COASTAL WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...

11:00 AM PDT Tue Jun 21
Location: 19.2°N 106.4°W
Max sustained: 70 mph
Moving: W at 14 mph
Min pressure: 988 mb
Member Since: Luglio 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25290
101. ProgressivePulse 05:34 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011    
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
i do not like the way the high is going to set up!! hurricanes hit the east coast!!



Mean trough in the mid-section looks to pull everything closer to land this year. I second the concern.....
Member Since: Agosto 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4326

Viewing: 51 - 101

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18Blog Index

New Comment
Community Standards Policy Comments will take a few seconds to appear.
Post Your Comments
Please sign in to post comments.
Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.
About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Community Activity