Globe has 10th warmest May on record; critical fire conditions for Arizona
May 2011 was the globe's 10th warmest May on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). May 2011 global ocean temperatures were the 11th warmest on record, and land temperatures were the 6th warmest on record. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes from the Caribbean to the coast of Africa between 10°N and 20°N were 0.6°C above average, the 7th highest SSTs of the past 100 years. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were above average, the 8th or 12th warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH).
Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for May 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).
Unusual global extremes in May and spring 2011
As I discussed in yesterday's post, during the spring period of March, April, and May 2011, 46% of the U.S. had abnormally (top 10%) wet or dry conditions--the greatest such area during the 102-year period of record. On average, just 21% of the country has exceptionally wet conditions or exceptionally dry conditions during spring. In addition, heavy 1-day precipitation events--the kind that cause the worst flooding--were also at an all-time high in the spring of 2011.
A highly extreme precipitation pattern was also observed over the British Isles during spring 2011. England suffered its driest spring in over a century during May, with late May soils the driest on record over large parts of eastern and central England. In contrast, Scotland had its wettest spring on record.
New Zealand had its warmest May since records began there in 1909, whereas Australia saw its coolest March-May since their records began in 1950.
Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a detailed summary of May 2011 global weather extremes.
La Niña is gone; conditions are neutral
Although sea surface temperatures increased in the equatorial Pacific overall, El Niño/La Niña conditions remained neutral in the month of May, according to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. Sea surface temperatures were near-average across the central Pacific Ocean, and were 0.5°C or more above average in the far western and eastern Pacific Ocean. Neutral conditions are expected to continue through the summer.
May Arctic sea ice 3rd lowest extent on record
Arctic sea ice in May 2011 was much-below average according to data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, and ranked 3rd lowest on record for the Northern Hemisphere. Sea ice loss has accelerated during the first half of June, and as of June 16 was the lowest for the date since satellite measurements began in 1979. Snow cover extent in the Northern Hemisphere was also below average, making May 2011 the 7th consecutive May with below-average snow cover extent in the Northern Hemisphere.
Five-day period of critical fire conditions expected in the Southwest
The powerful winds that helped fan Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's largest fire on record will return in force today, after a two-day quiet period that allowed firefighter to achieve 29% containment of the fire by Wednesday evening. The forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for afternoon winds of 20 - 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph today and Friday. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts that even stronger winds will blow Saturday and Sunday. With hot conditions and humidity values below 10%, these are likely to be among the worst fire conditions the region has seen this year.
Figure 2. Smoke from Arizona's Wallow fire (top area with red squares denoting active fires) drifts northeastward over New Mexico in this image taken by NASA's Terra satellite at 20:30 UTC on June 15, 2011. Arizona's Horseshoe Two fire is also visible, as well as fires burning in New Mexico and Mexico.
The Atlantic is quiet, with no tropical cyclones predicted over the next seven days by the reliable computer models.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Yeah. That's probably what I should have said: the wave is interacting with the semipermanent Colombian heat low, generating convection in the region that appears to be significant but is not.
No, that was much earlier, Gilgamesh written in cuneform.
There is only one dynamic model run I know of that doesn't display the MJO as occurring in one area. Idk what the name of the model is, but here's the forecast
Nonetheless, here are all the other dynamic forecasts
Gives you an idea where the most intense convection has been going on and where the MJO has been hanging out strongest
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
DEEP DEPRESSION BOB02-2011
8:30 AM IST June 17 2011
===================================
At 3:00 AM UTC, Deep Depression BOB02-2011 over Gangetic West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh remained practically stationary and lays centered over Gangetic West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh near 22.5N 89.0E, or about 130 km northeast of Sagar Island, 80 km east of Kolkata and 150 km west-northwest of Khepupara (Bangladesh).
The system is likely to move north-northwestwards initially and then west-northwestwards and weaken gradually.
3 minute sustained winds near the center along and off West Bengal - Bangladesh coast is 25-30 knots with a central pressure of 984 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough along and off West Bengal - Bangladesh coast. Associated broken moderate to intense convection (lowest cloud top temperature -70C) lies over Bay of Bengal to the north of 19.0N and west of 92.5E.
I haven't made any bad posts. All I did was mention Nea's posts being unnecessarily -ed and look where I am now!
Wunderground has some truly great posters, too bad there is a small group of posters which ruin it for everybody else in between.
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:00 PM PDT June 16 2011
======================================
A broad area low pressure located several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec has not been producing concentrated shower and thunderstorm activity for the last day or so.. however, the low level circulation is slowly becoming better defined and environmental conditions still appear generally conducive for development during the next couple of days.
Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
====================================
There is a MODERATE chance of this disturbance to form into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05
15:00 PM JST June 17 2011
====================================
SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of The Philippines
At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 10.7N 128.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 9 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.0
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 13.2N 126.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Additional Information
=======================
Tropical Depression will move at the same speed for the next 24 hours
Tropical Depression will move northwest for the next 24 hours
Tropical Depression will be upgraded to Tropical Storm within 24 hours
Tropical Depression will develop because cyclone will stay in high sea surface temperature area
Final Initial Dvorak T Number will be 2.5 after 24 hours
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
DEEP DEPRESSION BOB02-2011
11:30 AM IST June 17 2011
===================================
At 6:00 AM UTC, Deep Depression BOB02-2011 over Gangetic West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh moved slightly northwestwards and lays centered over Gangetic West Bengal near 22.8N 88.5E, or about 30 km northeast of Kolkata.
The system is likely to move northwestwards for some time and then west-northwestwards and weaken gradually.
UPDATE 17/06 %u2013 09:47 UTC : A strong M5.5 earthquake has occurred in a similar position on 17th June 2011, this is expected to also indicate volcanic activity from Nabro again. We will wait for confirmation.''
As Nea. was commenting last night this volcano deserves some attention from the media.I think it should be at least top end of significant to the Middle east and oil/shipping routes!
one of'm is the honey prarie fire, no it's not out, it stinks here already this morning. Worse than yesterday. It's mentioned in our HWO, smoke possibly reducing vis here to less than a mile AGAIN..
But we did have a small mcs pull thru overnite so maybe it's kinda smouldering some too
man I do not want another repeat of wednesday
The chance of it making it all the way to your house is probably slim. :(
no I don't think nashville's rain is gonna make it here
and you are way too far inland to hope for seabreeze interaction
I guess the sun has risen(?) but we are too smoked in to tell?
I was looking at the Intellicast 10-day for Valdosta which is, of course, not so very far from you (I was thinking of visiting some friends there next week):
102
100
102
102
102
103
103
101
101
99 (a cooling trend!)
UV Index for today: 11 (Extreme)
Sorry about that. As a consolation, winter starts in just six months. :-\
C'mon Nea, it's not the heat, it's the humidity, hahaha - -it was 98º here a coupla days ago, 31% humidity, felt quite bearable.
Valdosta is not far from Tallahassee, too, and they hit 105º the other day.
Isn't it still spring?
I'm a believer!!!!!!!!
I guess the wave train is starting early.
Interesting article but the author seems to be implying that the media should be speculating on what's going on. It seems like, while there is a concern, there is really nothing dangerous happening at the moment. Why is it a good idea for the media to hype what could happen? Especially given the situation in Japan. Hype and speculation would certainly create panic.
This secion in particular bothered me:
"OPPD reported that "offsite power remained available, as well as the emergency diesel generators if needed." But the incident was yet another reminder of the plant's potential vulnerability."
How is having two backup options that worked a reminder of vulnerability? Shouldn't that be a reminder of the plant's safety features?
Thanks for posting this link, this is the most comprehensive reporting I have seen on the Fort Calhoun situation.
I got the opposite from the article, not that the media should be speculating, but providing more detail.
But it seems like we have all the details. Right now there is nothing happening. Water is rising but there isn't really a crisis. What do we need to know that we don't already? An article on what would happen in an absolute worst-case scenario? That would by hype and speculation.
Plus, a lack of 'stories' doesn't necessarily mean a lack of 'coverage.' I'm sure there are reporters that are on the case and ready to report new information. There just might not be anything to report right now.
Blog is dead. you better post the 1440 hour model runs to liven things up.
The coverage the last few days has been full of rumors, such that the power district put up a page on their website. As CRS posted, that was the most comprehensive overview of the situation that I had seen.
Should we do a test elevation of the DOOMcon index to shake things up?
It's fairly cloudy here, almost hazy, but nothing actually wet falling from the sky. Yesterday afternoon we had another thunderstorm complex pass through.... it's sort of like the rainy season, only not in the "normal" parts of town for this time of year..... freaky....
Hope somebody in the South gets rain today, esp. TX and FL....
Heck, you probably remember Buffalo BILL...
Keep coming south!!! Keep coming south!!!
Extreme wildfire danger remains in place today through the weekend along with record high temperatures this weekend.
However hope appears on the horizon as the tropics look to come to live over the Gulf of Mexico next week.
It is brutal with the heat and dryness and vegetation, even large trees, are starting to suffer with the lack of rainfall. Upper level ridging over MX will build over TX over the next 24 hours with surface temperatures increasing into the low 100%u2019s during the afternoon hours likely breaking records. Strong winds have returned to the region resulting in warm overnight lows and afternoon dewpoints south of I-10 have not been mixing out much forcing heat index values toward 104-107 or just shy of heat advisory criteria. North of I-10 mixing as allowing afternoon RH to fall to near 35% supporting extreme fire weather concerns with the gusty southerly winds.
Expect very warm conditions over the weekend with highs into the 100%u2019s and lows near 80 with no rainfall. Starting Monday the stubborn upper ridge shifts far to the northeast of the area as a trough plowing across the north plains. The tail end of this trough will break off and create a shear axis or weakness across the state of TX lowering mid level heights and reducing the capping. At the same time the tropical wave currently in the central Caribbean Sea will surge NW across the Gulf of Mexico toward this weakness in the height field. PWS of 2.0-2.4 inches will move NW from the Yucatan and toward the TX coast by Tuesday.
Air mass becomes very tropical by late Tuesday as PWS start to exceed the magic 2.0 inch range. Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop on this surge of deep moisture Tuesday afternoon as the air mass goes uncapped and trigger temperatures fall to the mid 80%u2019s. Wednesday and Thursday look like the wettest days as PWS peak in the 2.2-2.4 inch range supporting the threat of widespread heavy rainfall. GFS attempts to develop a surface low pressure reflection off the NE MX coast around the middle of the week and moves this feature northward into the shear axis over TX and inland around Matagorda Bay. At this time will keep the tropical wave axis as an open wave and not close off a surface low, but it is possible that some weak tropical development could spin up near the coast toward the middle/end of next week.
At this point given the multiple model runs showing this event feel rain chances will start on Tuesday and really ramp up on Wednesday and Thursday. Will go with 50% for Wednesday and Thursday for now as we must not forget how hard rain has been to come by over the past several months however if models continue to show this event then chances will need to be pushed into the 70-80% range by early next week. Finger are crossed.
Drought/Heat:
BUSH IAH has already recorded 4 100 degree days this June, typically we record 100 only 3 times in a whole year.
Crockett has reached 100 11 times in June and Huntsville 8
As of today June 2011 is the warmest ever record at IAH, Hobby, and Galveston.
Houston has now endured 4 months without an inch of rainfall%u2026this has never happened before.
Hobby Airport has had 1 day of rainfall (.19 of an inch) out of the last 92 days.
The period from Oct 2010 to June 16, 2011 is that driest period ever recorded at IAH and Hobby shattering the previous records
IAH: 12.84 inches of rainfall (old record 15.05 inches in 1917)
Hobby: 16.07 inches of rainfall (old record 16.97 inches in 1956)
College Station: Second driest behind 1925 (1925: 9.15 in, 2011: 9.79 inches, 1917: 13.52 inches)
Based on the rainfall data above this is likely the most severe short term drought ever experienced in the City of Houston weather history.
It is even more astounding when looking at the period from Feb-June 2011. This period has been incredibly dry.
IAH: 2.02 (2011) previous record 5.48 (1996). 2011 for this period has 11.5% of its rainfall.
Hobby: 1.31 (2011) previous record 4.99 (1963). 2011 for this period has 7.3% of its rainfall
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