Massive tornado outbreak kills 202; 100-year flood coming on Mississippi River
A stunning tornado outbreak of incredible violence has left at least 202 dead across the Eastern U.S.; injuries probably number over a thousand, with 600 injured in the town of Tuscaloosa alone. The tornadoes carved huge swaths of damage, completely flattening large sections of many towns, and damage from the storms is likely to be the greatest in history for any tornado outbreak. Hardest hit was Alabama, with at least 149 dead; at least 36 were killed in neighboring Mississippi. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged 160 preliminary reports of tornadoes between 8am EDT yesterday and 8am EDT today. At least 11 of these tornadoes were killer tornadoes; deaths occurred in six states. Damage from some of these storms appeared to be at least EF-4, and it is likely that there were multiple violent EF-4 or EF-5 tornadoes. The death toll makes the April 27 - 28 outbreak the third deadliest tornado outbreak of the past 50 years, behind the April 3 - 4, 1974 Super Outbreak (315 killed) and the 1965 Palm Sunday tornado outbreak (256 killed.)
Figure 1. Damage in Birmingham, Alabama from last night's tornado. Image posted to twitter.
Figure 2. Damage in Tuscaloosa, Alabama from last night's tornado. Image posted to twitter, photographer unknown.
Figure 3. Radar reflectivity image of the Tuscaloosa, Alabama tornado.
The 3-day total of preliminary tornado reports from this outbreak is 278, close to the 323 preliminary tornado reports logged during the massive April 14 - 16 tornado outbreak. That outbreak has 155 confirmed tornadoes so far, making it the largest April tornado outbreak on record. It is unprecedented to have two such massive tornado outbreaks occur so close together. According to a list of tornado outbreaks maintained by Wikipedia, only two other tornado outbreaks have had as many as 150 twisters--the May 2004 outbreak (385), and the May 2003 outbreak (401).
Figure 4. Satellite image of last night's storm at 8:15pm EDT April 27, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Tornado outbreak winding down today
Tornado warnings continue to be issued this morning along the cold front now pushing towards the Atlantic coast, and a tornado was reported at 7:35am EDT in McBee, South Carolina. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed a large swath of the coast, from Florida to Vermont, in their "Slight Risk" region for severe weather. The high instability and high wind shear that triggered so many killer tornadoes yesterday is gone, and we should see only a few weak tornadoes today. No severe storms are predicted for Friday. Saturday has a slight risk of severe weather over Oklahoma and Texas.
Figure 5. Severe weather threat for Thursday, April 28, 2011.
Figure 6. Remarkable video of the tornado that hit Tuscaloosa, Alabama yesterday. Fast forward to minute four to see the worst of the storm.
Figure 8. Tornado near Empire, Alabama, moving rapidly down a hill.
Unprecedented flooding predicted on Ohio and Mississippi Rivers
This week's storm system, in combination with heavy rains earlier this month, have pushed the Ohio River and Mississippi River to near-record levels near their confluence. The Ohio River at Cairo, Illinois is expected to crest at 60.5 feet on May 1. This would exceed 100-year flood stage, and be the highest flood in history, besting the 59.5' mark of 1937. Heavy rains of 10 - 15 inches have inundated the region over the past few days, and one levee breach at Black River levee near Poplar Bluff, Missouri, has resulted in the evacuation of over 500 homes. Poplar Bluff has received 15.45" of rain since Friday morning. The greatest rain gauge-measured precipitation from the storm occurred in Springdale, Arkansas, where 19.70" inches has fallen since Friday morning.
Figure 9. The latest River Flood Outlook from NOAA shows major flooding is occurring over many of the nation's major rivers.
Record 100+ year flood expected on Mississippi River
Snow melt from this winter's record snow pack across the Upper Mississippi River has formed a pulse of flood waters that is moving downstream on the Mississippi, and is currently located in Iowa. When this floodwater pulse moves south of Cairo, Illinois over the next two weeks, it will join with the record water flow coming out of the Ohio River, and create the highest flood heights ever recorded on the Mississippi, according to the latest forecasts from the National Weather Service. Along a 400-mile stretch of the Mississippi, from Cairo to Natchez, Mississippi the Mississippi is expected to experience the highest flood heights since records began 100 or more years ago, at 5 of the 10 gauges on the river along this stretch. The records are predicted to begin to fall on May 3 at New Madrid, and progress downstream to Natchez by May 20. Areas that are not protected by levees can expect extensive damage from the flooding, and it is possible that the Army Corps of Engineers will have to intentionally dynamite a levee at Birds Point and New Madrid, Missouri to protect the town of Cairo from flooding.
The Mississippi River at New Madrid, MO, about 40 miles downstream of the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers, is currently at 44', the 3rd highest flood in history. The river is predicted to crest on Tuesday very near the all-time record height of 48 feet. The NWS warns that at this height, "Large amounts of property damage can be expected. Evacuation of many homes and businesses becomes necessary." Previous record heights at this location:
(1) 48.00 ft on 02/03/1937
(2) 44.60 ft on 04/09/1913
(3) 43.60 ft on 04/04/1975
(4) 43.50 ft on 02/16/1950
(5) 42.94 ft on 03/17/1997
The timing of the floods crests will depend upon a complex mix a factors, including how much rain falls over the next month, the possible influence of southerly winds holding up the floodwater pulses, the potential opening of flood control structures and reduction of flows from flood control reservoirs, and potential levee failures (no levee has failed on the Lower Mississippi south of the Ohio River junction since 1950, however.) The Mississippi River is expected to crest at 17 feet at New Orleans on May 22, three feet below the top of the levees. This would likely require opening of the Bonnet Carre Spillway 28 miles upstream from New Orleans, to relieve pressure on the city's levees. Opening the spillway drains 250,000 cubic feet per second of flow into Lake Pontchartrain.
Helping out tornado victims
For those who want to lend a helping hand to those impacted by the widespread destruction this month's severe weather has brought, stop by the portlight.org blog.
Related post: Are tornadoes getting stronger and more frequent? The answer is--we don't know.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Camping out a day in advance to see a married couple come by?
Yawn.
And, no, I don't think anyone really thinks such improvements should be limited to tornado alley.
I saw one guy who said there was no warning. After be pushed by the reporter he back tracked and said he did hear a siren but figured it was a typical small tornado or strong wind so he did not take it seriously.
I agree. I'm lucky in that I have a small closet under the stairs in my home that is reinforced (2x6 studs on 6 inch centers). Its used as storage right now, but can be emptied out in about 15 seconds, and also happens to be where my wife and I store our emergency kit.
Designating a protected room as a "storm shelter" of sorts is an EXCELLENT idea. Whether its a bedroom, closet, cellar, or reinforced interior hallway, something is better than nothing. That said, if you get an EF4 or EF5, there isn't much that can be done, but a protected room will likely save countless lives in less significant tornadoes.
There's a Royal Wedding tomorrow?
Does that mean you are not smart enough?
Barge traffic moves along the channel of the flooding Mississippi River just north of where the Ohio River joins the Mississippi near Cairo, Ill. on Tuesday, April 26, 2011. The Army Corps of Engineers postponed its decision on a proposal to blow a huge hole in the Birds Point levee in southeast Missouri, just downriver of the confluence. The idea was hatched as a desperate bid to reduce the amount of water moving down the Mississippi. The channel of the Mississippi river is marked by the lines of tree that would normal mark the banks of the river. (AP Photo/St. Louis Post-Dispatch, David Carson) EDWARDSVILLE INTELLIGENCER OUT; THE ALTON TELEGRAPH OUT / David Carson/AP
One issue with this is the fact that some states (*cough* Texas) have builders that push cheap homes that barely meet building standards, where every expense imaginable is spared. $5k can easily put a home out of reach for someone whom is barely credit-worthy. While a safe room would undoubtedly save countless lives (And why any future house that I build will have one, even before today's discussion), asking builders to add them, and home buyers to request them, is somewhat idealistic.
LOL. Hello friend. You have been missed.
You have Obama. We have the Queen and the rest of the Royal family.
Do ya see why there might be a loyalty difference?
Just sayin....... :-)
Is a safe room safer than a basement in a tornado?
So people who think differently and do things differently are dumb and stupid because YOU don't understand.
That's what we call an Americanism
lmao
Nope. Most injured or killed in a tornado are from flying debris, not structure collapse. Basement or storm shelter would be preferred to anywhere above ground. If sheltering above ground, just put as many walls as you can between you and the wind outside.
Not many people in the South have basements at all.
As far as safe rooms go, it depends on how much money you want to spend on one. If you put a steel structure above ground, reinforced by concrete, maybe it's just as safe as being underground. However, being underground is typically going to be the safest bet regardless.
You're right. This was tried in the Oklahoma area after the Moore/Ok City tornado ended and before recontruction began. It did not gain traction as the home builders strongly opposed it---but doesn't mean it can't be tried again. One thing that people did take advantage of was a FEMA shelter rebate that was offered back then.
And once again, because you didn't get it first time out. YOU see no rational reason. You see them as no more important, so YOU have the right to be offensive to those that do.
That's known as Americanism #2
Just drop it. There's no reason to be rude just because you don't get it.
But allow others to feel how they feel and act how they want to.
That's democracy.
That's americanism # 3
Isn't it?
NEW: Three more deaths reported in Tennessee
NEW: The death toll is at least 250 people in six states
More than 980 people treated at hospitals
President Obama will travel to Alabama on Friday
Yes! If constructed correctly! An 18inch 6x6 block room reinforced with steel rods and having its own inside foundation would withstand most EF-3 and 4 but, hard to say if anything above ground could take a EF-5!!!!
i see envy there :-D
I agree 100%, I called an aunt south of Atlanta last night, and she said not to worry, as the TV said the storms would not be bad in the valleys. She did not even know there were tornado warnings. This morning, she said I was right, and there was damage just a few miles from her house.
TVA spokeswoman Barbara Martocci told CNN no radiation was released as a result of the shutdown, and the plant is currently in a safe shutdown mode.
"We've lost two water tanks on the east side of the city, which is crippling the water supply," he said. "We're facing an overwhelming situation in which we are short of men, materials and equipment." But he said Bentley has been "outstanding" in mobilizing resources.
"We've lost our environmental services," he said. "We've lost police precincts. We've lost fire stations. So our own infrastructure itself, which would deal with these issues, has been crippled. It's just compounding the situation."
That may be the problem right there.
Alabama: 162
Tennessee: 33
Mississippi: 32
Georgia: 14
Arkansas: 11
Virginia: 11
Total: 263
Plus one that was just added from Ky that the news article did not have added
Viewing: 151 - 201
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