The nation's unprecedented April tornado-fest continued full force last night, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logging 57 tornado reports, 295 cases of damaging thunderstorm winds, and 254 reports of large hail. The 2-day tornado count from this latest huge April tornado outbreak is already 102. With another "high risk" forecast for tornadoes today, the tornado total for this week's outbreak may rival the April 14 - 16 tornado outbreak (155 confirmed tornadoes) as the greatest April tornado outbreak in history. It is unprecedented to have two such massive tornado outbreaks occur so close together, and the April preliminary tornado count of 654 is truly stunning. Even adjusting this number downwards 15% (the typical over-count in preliminary tornado reports) yields a probable April tornado total of 550. This easily crushes the previous April tornado record of 267, set in 1974. An average April has "only" 163 tornadoes, so we are already 300% over average for the month, and may approach 400% after today's outbreak. According to a list of tornado outbreaks maintained by Wikipedia, only two other tornado outbreaks have had as many as 150 twisters--the May 2004 outbreak (385), and the May 2003 outbreak (401). One positive note--there has only been one violent EF-4 or stronger tornado this year, despite the fact we've already had about 2/3 of the 1200 tornadoes one typically gets for the entire year. Over the past 20 years, we've averaged 7 violent EF-4 or EF-5 tornadoes per year, so we should have had 4 or 5 of these most dangerous of tornadoes so far this year.
Figure 1. Satellite image of last night's storm at 8pm EDT April 26, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Fortunately, no one was killed in last night's tornado frenzy, but four twisters caused injuries, with 7 injuries in Hesterman, Mississippi, and 3 in Beekman, Louisiana. Over 100 homes were damaged when a tornado struck Edom, Texas, approximately 75 miles East of Dallas. One woman was injured when her mobile home was destroyed. The only killer tornado of the current outbreak occurred on Monday night at 7:30 pm CDT when a 1/2 mile-wide EF-2 tornado struck the small town of Vilonia, Arkansas. Four people died in the town, where 50 - 80 buildings were destroyed. Tornado warnings were issued 30 minutes before the storm hit, contributing to the relatively low loss of life.
Figure 2. Storm chaser video of a tornado yesterday in Ben Wheeler, Texas.
Another very dangerous tornado outbreak expected today
The busiest April in history for tornadoes continues full-force today, as NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has issued their highest level of severe weather potential, a "High Risk" forecast, for Northern Alabama, Southern Tennessee, and adjoining portions of Georgia and Mississippi. This is the second day in a row, and third time this year, that SPC has issued a "High Risk" forecast. The devastating North Carolina tornado outbreak of April 16, which generated 52 confirmed tornadoes that killed 24 people in North Carolina and 2 people in Virginia, was the other "high risk" day. Numerous tornado warnings have already been issued in Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, Mississippi, Arkansas, Ohio, and Alabama this morning, but today's main action is expected to erupt late this afternoon as the cold front from a low pressure system currently over Arkansas moves eastwards over the "high risk" area. Strong daytime heating in a very moist, unstable airmass will allow a tremendous amount of energy to build up ahead of the front. The arrival of the cold front will force the warm, moist air upwards, allowing the pent-up energy to burst out and fuel supercell thunderstorms.
Related post: Are tornadoes getting stronger and more frequent?
Figure 3. Severe weather threat for Wednesday, April 27, 2011.
Unprecedented flooding predicted on Ohio River
This week's storm system, in combination with heavy rains earlier this month, have pushed the Ohio River and Mississippi River to near-record levels near their confluence. The Ohio River at Cairo, Illinois is expected to crest at 60.5 feet on May 1. This would exceed 100-year flood stage, and be the highest flood in history, besting the 59.5' mark of 1937. Heavy rains of 10 - 15 inches have inundated the region over the past few days, and one levee breach at Black River levee near Poplar Bluff, Missouri, has resulted in the evacuation of over 500 homes. Poplar Bluff has received 15.45" of rain since Friday morning. The greatest rain gauge-measured precipitation from the storm occurred in Springdale, Arkansas, where 19.70" inches has fallen since Friday morning.
Figure 4. The latest River Flood Outlook from NOAA shows major flooding is occurring over many of the nation's major rivers.
Extraordinary intentional levee breach of Mississippi River halted by lawsuit
In a sign of just how extreme this flooding situation is, yesterday the Army Corps of Engineers, which is responsible for flood control efforts on the Mississippi River, announced plans to intentionally destroy a levee protecting the west bank of the Mississippi River in Southwest Missouri. The destruction of the levee is intended to relieve pressure on the levees at Cairo, Illinois, at the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. Cairo is currently under a voluntary evacuation order. The levee to be destroyed, located at Birds Point, is called a "fuse-plug" levee, and was designed to be destroyed in the event of a record flood. The levee protects 132,000 acres of prime farmland along the New Madrid Spillway, which is designed to take 550,000 cubic feet per second of water flow out of the Mississippi and redirect it down a 3 - 10 mile wide, 36 - 56 mile long path along the west side of the Mississippi. An 11-mile long section of the levee upstream at Birds Point, and 5-mile long stretch at the downstream end, are set two feet lower than the surrounding levees and filled with holes to accommodate dynamite. These levees will be destroyed if the Army Corps has its way, but a lawsuit by the state of Missouri is currently blocking the way. The Army Corps has now agreed to wait until Saturday to decide whether or not to blow the levee. The Army Corps' website has an unofficial damage estimate of $100 million for destroying the levees and flooding the New Madrid Spillway. At least 100 people live in the spillway and have been evacuated, and it would likely take many years for the farms to recover after flooding. The levees have been blown and the spillway opened only once before, back during the record flood of 1937.
Midwest deluge enhanced by near-record Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperatures
The deluge of rain that caused this flood found its genesis in a flow of warm, humid air coming from the Gulf of Mexico. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs )in the Gulf of Mexico are currently close to 1 °C above average. Only two Aprils since the 1800s (2002 and 1991) have had April SSTs more than 1 °C above average, so current SSTs are among the highest on record. These warm ocean temperatures helped set record high air temperatures in many locations in Texas yesterday, including Galveston (84°F, a tie with 1898), Del Rio (104°F, old record 103° in 1984), San Angelo (97°F, old record 96° in 1994). Record highs were also set on Monday in Baton Rouge and Shreveport in Louisiana, and in Austin, Mineral Wells, and Cotulla la Salle in Texas. Since this week's storm brought plenty of cloud cover that kept temperatures from setting record highs in many locations, a more telling statistic of how warm this air mass was is the huge number of record high minimum temperature records that were set over the past two days. For example, the minimum temperature reached only 79°F in Brownsville, TX Monday morning, beating the previous record high minimum of 77°F set in 2006. In Texas, Austin, Houston, Port Arthur, Cotulla la Salle, Victoria, College Station, Victoria, Corpus Christi, McAllen, and Brownsville all set record high minimums on Monday, as did New Orleans, Lafayette, Monroe, Shreveport, and Alexandria in Louisiana, as well as Jackson and Tupelo in Mississippi. Since record amounts of water vapor can evaporate into air heated to record warm levels, it is not a surprise that incredible rains and unprecedented floods are resulting from this month's near-record warm SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico.
Figure 5. Departure of sea surface temperature from average for April 25, 2001. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.
Fierce winds fan Texas, New Mexico fires
Fierce winds fanned raging fires across eastern New Mexico and Western Texas yesterday, thanks to a powerful flow of air feeding into the Midwestern storm system. Temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s combined with humidities less than 10% combined to make yesterday a nightmare fire day for firefighters attempting to control the worst springtime fires in the history of the region. At 3:53 pm MDT yesterday in Carlsbad, New Mexico, the temperature was 87°F, winds were 38 mph gusting to 46, and the humidity was 8%--a perfect storm for extreme fire weather. In Fort Stockton, Texas near the huge Rock House fire, the temperature was 91°F, winds were 35 mph gusting to 44, visibility was reduced to 5 miles due to haze and smoke, and the humidity was 5% at 5:53pm CDT. According to the Interagency Fire Center, wildfires in 2011 have already burned nearly 2.3 million acres in the U.S. This is the greatest acreage on record so early in the year, and is more area than burned all of last year. The largest U.S. acreage to burn since 1960 was the 9.9 million acres that burned in 2007, so we area already 25% of the way to the all-time record fire year--with summer still more than a month away. The fire weather forecast for today is better then yesterday, with winds not expected to blow nearly as strong.
Figure 6. Major wildfires and smoke plumes as visualized using our wundermap with the "fire" layer turned on.
For those who want to lend a helping hand to those impacted by the widespread destruction this month's severe weather has brought, stop by the portlight.org blog.
Jeff Masters
I haven't seen a storm like this in quite some time. Still no rain in Seguin, Tx. Pic taken in Seguin storm near Martindale.
Mississippi @ Burlington (
BURGuy)
Seating along the shore
Taken within minutes after the storm cell had passed directly overhead.
This is a shot of a lightning strike associated with some severe storms moving through this evening in Southaven, MS.
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Statement as of 2:46 PM EDT on April 27, 2011
... A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 315 PM EDT/215 PM CDT/ for Marion and Hamilton counties...
At 241 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar continued to indicate a line of tornado producing storms. These tornado producing storms were located along a line extending from 7 miles northwest of Middle Valley to Red Bank to Lookout Mountain... or along a line extending from 10 miles southeast of Dunlap to Chattanooga to Rossville... moving northeast at 70 mph.
Locations in the warning include...
Soddy-Daisy... Harrison... Shady Grove... East Brainerd... Sale
Creek... Ooltewah... Collegedale and Birchwood.
Precautionary/preparedness actions...
The safest place to be during a tornado is in a basement. Get under a workbench or other piece of sturdy furniture. If no basement is available... seek shelter on the lowest floor of the building in an interior hallway or room such as a closet. Use blankets or pillows to cover your body and always stay away from windows.
If in Mobile homes or vehicles... evacuate them and get inside a substantial shelter. If no shelter is available... lie flat in the nearest ditch or other low spot and cover your head with your hands.
A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 PM EDT Wednesday afternoon/400 PM CDT Wednesday afternoon/ for southwest North Carolina and central Tennessee.
(i.e., that means find a safe place to be ahead of the storm...this is the line that was over by Huntsville maybe an hour ago).
The head of Covington Police's criminal investigations unit was killed Tuesday night as he shielded his young daughter from the violent storms that ripped through Mississippi, authorities said.
Lt. Wade Sharp was in a tent at a campsite on the Natchez Trace in Choctaw County with his daughter, who is about 8 years old, when the storm rolled through the area, Covington Police Chief Richard Palmisano said. Sharp apparently heard the high winds snap a tree, and he rolled over on top of his daughter to protect her, Palmisano said.
The tree struck Sharp in the back of the head, killing him on the scene, Palmisano said. His daughter was not injured, the police chief said.
"He was a hero all the way through his whole career, and was a hero to the end," Palmisano said.
Sharp was one of three people killed in Mississippi by the powerful storms and tornado's that have ravaged the area.
Sharp's daughter was able to call her mother immediately and was found by other people at the campground after the storm had passed, Palmisano said.
Palmisano said Sharp's death was consistent with a 19-year career during which Sharp has saved at least three lives. The chief described him as a "cornerstone of the department."
"People always requested to work for him or with him. He was an enjoyable person to be around," he said.
"Right now I think the big thing is for everyone to keep in their hearts and their prayers the family, especially his children and his wife," he said.
Covington Mayor Candace Watkins said the Police Department and City Hall were reeling Wednesday as news of Sharp's death spread.
A shaken Watkins said Sharp was a "strong leader and a really good officer.''
"It's a huge loss for us,'' she said. "He meant a lot to that department. He was extremely valuable to the department.''
Watkins said Sharp on Tuesday had posted on his Facebook page photos of the campsite he and his daughter had set up. She said his daughter likes to camp and that Sharp had told friends he was looking forward to spending time with her.
"It's really, really sad,'' Watkins said. "This will not be an easy one to get over.''
We all Love our families and this man gave the full measure that a Father could give,,
Man Chattanooga can not get a break today
At my desk working.
My point is, many accidents can be avoided.
Moving on...
Awe he was a good daddy as well as a hero. It's amazing how those little ones come along and for the first time in your life you absolutely know you'd take a bullet for them or step in front of train or shield them from a falling tree. It's not even a conscious thought you just know it. I guess that never changes. Mine are grown and I would still do that.
Bless your heart. You just don't get it.
:)
Agreed. The instability isn't world-beating, but it'll still get the job done:
Besides, when the helicity values are this high, it doesn't take much CAPE to get things started. The storms in North Carolina earlier this month had similar helicity values to work with and much less CAPE (only around the 1000-2000 J/kg level).
I don't get what? Ask that little girl's mother how she feels today. He should never have taken that little girl out camping in the first place.
And all of us who are parents identify with his last misery, realizing what he had done, and doing what he could to protect his daughter. It's totally tragic. I get that.
People, particularly adults who are responsible for chlidren need to be smart when there's serious stuff going on around them and pay attention, taking measures ahead of time so you don't get caught having to lie in a ditch with your hands on your head.
That was my only point.
If you are living in a mobile home park, and there is a tornado outbreak forecast, then do not stay in the mobile home and get out ahead of time.
If you are manager at a mobile home park, then it is your responsibility to make sure that everyone is safe.
If you are stuck there because you have no transportation, no tv, nobody looked after you, then you are not stupid, you are unfortunate.
I'm not going to keep belaboring this point.
I feel sorry for people who either don't have access to public safety information or who do not have the resources or people around to help them.
This all started because I said you don't want to be one of those people in the ditch with their hands on their heads.
Id maybe check the posts Dawling,,I made no such statement here...
Cool pic
I said it.
Has this pick been "doctored" at all? If not, it's incredible.
On another note, flsky, it appears to be unaltered. Maybe 10 second exposure...
So Pllllllllllllllllllttttttttt....
LoL
Yes, what happened is tragic. Can anything be done about it now? No. Then why the heck are we beating the horse senseless, when we have a major severe outbreak, disastrous drought, and significant flooding occuring - at the same time?
& some people are just full of excuses.
The guy posted pics to facebook of the campsite not long before the tree went though his tent.. he had internet. He drove his daughter to the campground..he could have drove away.
One of my favorites. It's an old one taken near Clewiston, Florida, back in 1991.
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