The nation's unprecedented April tornado-fest continued full force last night, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logging 57 tornado reports, 295 cases of damaging thunderstorm winds, and 254 reports of large hail. The 2-day tornado count from this latest huge April tornado outbreak is already 102. With another "high risk" forecast for tornadoes today, the tornado total for this week's outbreak may rival the April 14 - 16 tornado outbreak (155 confirmed tornadoes) as the greatest April tornado outbreak in history. It is unprecedented to have two such massive tornado outbreaks occur so close together, and the April preliminary tornado count of 654 is truly stunning. Even adjusting this number downwards 15% (the typical over-count in preliminary tornado reports) yields a probable April tornado total of 550. This easily crushes the previous April tornado record of 267, set in 1974. An average April has "only" 163 tornadoes, so we are already 300% over average for the month, and may approach 400% after today's outbreak. According to a list of tornado outbreaks maintained by Wikipedia, only two other tornado outbreaks have had as many as 150 twisters--the May 2004 outbreak (385), and the May 2003 outbreak (401). One positive note--there has only been one violent EF-4 or stronger tornado this year, despite the fact we've already had about 2/3 of the 1200 tornadoes one typically gets for the entire year. Over the past 20 years, we've averaged 7 violent EF-4 or EF-5 tornadoes per year, so we should have had 4 or 5 of these most dangerous of tornadoes so far this year.
Figure 1. Satellite image of last night's storm at 8pm EDT April 26, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Fortunately, no one was killed in last night's tornado frenzy, but four twisters caused injuries, with 7 injuries in Hesterman, Mississippi, and 3 in Beekman, Louisiana. Over 100 homes were damaged when a tornado struck Edom, Texas, approximately 75 miles East of Dallas. One woman was injured when her mobile home was destroyed. The only killer tornado of the current outbreak occurred on Monday night at 7:30 pm CDT when a 1/2 mile-wide EF-2 tornado struck the small town of Vilonia, Arkansas. Four people died in the town, where 50 - 80 buildings were destroyed. Tornado warnings were issued 30 minutes before the storm hit, contributing to the relatively low loss of life.
Figure 2. Storm chaser video of a tornado yesterday in Ben Wheeler, Texas.
Another very dangerous tornado outbreak expected today
The busiest April in history for tornadoes continues full-force today, as NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has issued their highest level of severe weather potential, a "High Risk" forecast, for Northern Alabama, Southern Tennessee, and adjoining portions of Georgia and Mississippi. This is the second day in a row, and third time this year, that SPC has issued a "High Risk" forecast. The devastating North Carolina tornado outbreak of April 16, which generated 52 confirmed tornadoes that killed 24 people in North Carolina and 2 people in Virginia, was the other "high risk" day. Numerous tornado warnings have already been issued in Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, Mississippi, Arkansas, Ohio, and Alabama this morning, but today's main action is expected to erupt late this afternoon as the cold front from a low pressure system currently over Arkansas moves eastwards over the "high risk" area. Strong daytime heating in a very moist, unstable airmass will allow a tremendous amount of energy to build up ahead of the front. The arrival of the cold front will force the warm, moist air upwards, allowing the pent-up energy to burst out and fuel supercell thunderstorms.
Related post: Are tornadoes getting stronger and more frequent?
Figure 3. Severe weather threat for Wednesday, April 27, 2011.
Unprecedented flooding predicted on Ohio River
This week's storm system, in combination with heavy rains earlier this month, have pushed the Ohio River and Mississippi River to near-record levels near their confluence. The Ohio River at Cairo, Illinois is expected to crest at 60.5 feet on May 1. This would exceed 100-year flood stage, and be the highest flood in history, besting the 59.5' mark of 1937. Heavy rains of 10 - 15 inches have inundated the region over the past few days, and one levee breach at Black River levee near Poplar Bluff, Missouri, has resulted in the evacuation of over 500 homes. Poplar Bluff has received 15.45" of rain since Friday morning. The greatest rain gauge-measured precipitation from the storm occurred in Springdale, Arkansas, where 19.70" inches has fallen since Friday morning.
Figure 4. The latest River Flood Outlook from NOAA shows major flooding is occurring over many of the nation's major rivers.
Extraordinary intentional levee breach of Mississippi River halted by lawsuit
In a sign of just how extreme this flooding situation is, yesterday the Army Corps of Engineers, which is responsible for flood control efforts on the Mississippi River, announced plans to intentionally destroy a levee protecting the west bank of the Mississippi River in Southwest Missouri. The destruction of the levee is intended to relieve pressure on the levees at Cairo, Illinois, at the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. Cairo is currently under a voluntary evacuation order. The levee to be destroyed, located at Birds Point, is called a "fuse-plug" levee, and was designed to be destroyed in the event of a record flood. The levee protects 132,000 acres of prime farmland along the New Madrid Spillway, which is designed to take 550,000 cubic feet per second of water flow out of the Mississippi and redirect it down a 3 - 10 mile wide, 36 - 56 mile long path along the west side of the Mississippi. An 11-mile long section of the levee upstream at Birds Point, and 5-mile long stretch at the downstream end, are set two feet lower than the surrounding levees and filled with holes to accommodate dynamite. These levees will be destroyed if the Army Corps has its way, but a lawsuit by the state of Missouri is currently blocking the way. The Army Corps has now agreed to wait until Saturday to decide whether or not to blow the levee. The Army Corps' website has an unofficial damage estimate of $100 million for destroying the levees and flooding the New Madrid Spillway. At least 100 people live in the spillway and have been evacuated, and it would likely take many years for the farms to recover after flooding. The levees have been blown and the spillway opened only once before, back during the record flood of 1937.
Midwest deluge enhanced by near-record Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperatures
The deluge of rain that caused this flood found its genesis in a flow of warm, humid air coming from the Gulf of Mexico. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs )in the Gulf of Mexico are currently close to 1 °C above average. Only two Aprils since the 1800s (2002 and 1991) have had April SSTs more than 1 °C above average, so current SSTs are among the highest on record. These warm ocean temperatures helped set record high air temperatures in many locations in Texas yesterday, including Galveston (84°F, a tie with 1898), Del Rio (104°F, old record 103° in 1984), San Angelo (97°F, old record 96° in 1994). Record highs were also set on Monday in Baton Rouge and Shreveport in Louisiana, and in Austin, Mineral Wells, and Cotulla la Salle in Texas. Since this week's storm brought plenty of cloud cover that kept temperatures from setting record highs in many locations, a more telling statistic of how warm this air mass was is the huge number of record high minimum temperature records that were set over the past two days. For example, the minimum temperature reached only 79°F in Brownsville, TX Monday morning, beating the previous record high minimum of 77°F set in 2006. In Texas, Austin, Houston, Port Arthur, Cotulla la Salle, Victoria, College Station, Victoria, Corpus Christi, McAllen, and Brownsville all set record high minimums on Monday, as did New Orleans, Lafayette, Monroe, Shreveport, and Alexandria in Louisiana, as well as Jackson and Tupelo in Mississippi. Since record amounts of water vapor can evaporate into air heated to record warm levels, it is not a surprise that incredible rains and unprecedented floods are resulting from this month's near-record warm SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico.
Figure 5. Departure of sea surface temperature from average for April 25, 2001. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.
Fierce winds fan Texas, New Mexico fires
Fierce winds fanned raging fires across eastern New Mexico and Western Texas yesterday, thanks to a powerful flow of air feeding into the Midwestern storm system. Temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s combined with humidities less than 10% combined to make yesterday a nightmare fire day for firefighters attempting to control the worst springtime fires in the history of the region. At 3:53 pm MDT yesterday in Carlsbad, New Mexico, the temperature was 87°F, winds were 38 mph gusting to 46, and the humidity was 8%--a perfect storm for extreme fire weather. In Fort Stockton, Texas near the huge Rock House fire, the temperature was 91°F, winds were 35 mph gusting to 44, visibility was reduced to 5 miles due to haze and smoke, and the humidity was 5% at 5:53pm CDT. According to the Interagency Fire Center, wildfires in 2011 have already burned nearly 2.3 million acres in the U.S. This is the greatest acreage on record so early in the year, and is more area than burned all of last year. The largest U.S. acreage to burn since 1960 was the 9.9 million acres that burned in 2007, so we area already 25% of the way to the all-time record fire year--with summer still more than a month away. The fire weather forecast for today is better then yesterday, with winds not expected to blow nearly as strong.
Figure 6. Major wildfires and smoke plumes as visualized using our wundermap with the "fire" layer turned on.
For those who want to lend a helping hand to those impacted by the widespread destruction this month's severe weather has brought, stop by the portlight.org blog.
Jeff Masters
I haven't seen a storm like this in quite some time. Still no rain in Seguin, Tx. Pic taken in Seguin storm near Martindale.
Mississippi @ Burlington (
BURGuy)
Seating along the shore
Taken within minutes after the storm cell had passed directly overhead.
This is a shot of a lightning strike associated with some severe storms moving through this evening in Southaven, MS.
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As you can see, that was quite an outbreak:
It even had a High risk up for the Day 2 Outlook!
The thing that concerns me is that we have gone through several major outbreaks since then. Outbreaks that included Greensburg, Super Tuesday, Parkersburg, Yazoo City, and the Norman and Moore Tornadoes, along with several others, and the probabilities have not been that high. The SPC must really see something crazy going on today!
Disaster preparedness seminars held in Port Arthur Link
I thought it was kind of telling that they said this
There is not necessarily anything new to announce however officials say that this is the time of the year that we need to be aware of our vulnerability to all types of disasters.
We've had our share of tropical disasters in the recent past and you'd think most people around here would have a plan in place by now. Unfortunately that never seems to be the case. :(
... A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 145 PM CDT for
northeastern DeKalb and east central Jackson counties...
At 118 PM CDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar continued to indicate a tornado. This tornado was located near Fabius... or about 10 miles southwest of Bridgeport... moving east at 50 mph.Other locations in the warning include but are not limited to Flat Rock and Higdon.
Precautionary/preparedness actions...
If in Mobile homes or vehicles... evacuate them and get inside a sturdy shelter. If no shelter is available... lie flat in the nearest ditch or other low spot and cover your head with your hands.
A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 PM CDT Wednesday afternoon for northern Alabama and central Tennessee.
Lat... Lon 3470 8590 3484 8593 3494 8560 3474 8555
time... Mot... loc 1818z 258deg 43kt 3482 8577
Kdw
TO YOUR DISMAY
I am curious what you'd suggest people do to prevent having to use your Option 3.
WTI Crude Oil
$112.98
If in Mobile homes or vehicles... evacuate them and get inside a sturdy shelter. If no shelter is available... lie flat in the nearest ditch or other low spot and cover your head with your hands.
Sorry, it's if in mobile homes or vehicles and it's actually option #2.
Nastiness headed toward Chattanooga, East Ridge now.
Link
Heck, the first round never stopped
Durango is such a great place. It lies right at the edge of the high Rockies and the desert southwest. You can take off in any direction from Durango and experience hours of beautiful scenery with minimal urbanization. Weather too hot? Head north to the mountains. Weather too cold? Head south to the sun-drenched canyons and mesas.
Yes, I occasionally search the job listings for Durango... :)
4 tornado signatures with that line now.
Link
Currently in Houston, it is 91, winds are 5-10 mph out of the NW (gusting to 20 and expected to pick up later), and humidity is a whopping 12%. It doesn't feel hot, but that low humidity and low 90s temp is just going to make the fire situation MUCH worse.
I have to say it's getting PAINFUL reading this blog. It's just been BAD news day-after-day. Like driving past a car accident and not being able to look away....
No kidding!
Well, it's a beautiful day along the Colorado Front Range today. Mid-50's with light winds and scattered clouds. No natural disasters to speak of at the moment...
But "normal" weather makes for dry reading... :)
Thanks for that brief respite....
Soon as you say this, Yellowstone BLOWS to your north
No, no, no!! Don't say that!!
:)
No problem...
Seems weird to brag about worse conditions. haha
What's painful is living through it.
That looks like a TD forming east of Brazil!
Born in Denver - I do remember....
Goes without saying....
Ha! Yeah, I never forget about that teeny little time-bomb up there, but she's been pretty quiet this week:
Tornados ravage the day, Levees break flooding towns, Texas goes up in smoke with heat and drought, power outages in TX cause plants and refineries to go offline, DOW plummets, Civil War and World War III begins in the Middle East, Oil goes thru the roof at $200 a barrel, and Yellowstone blows up.
Doubt it'll ever get this bad.
We get the heat, too.. Trust me. I'm not griping about the heat. I'm griping about this...
90+ temps and <25% humidity = fire weather, and making the drought worse.
(Houston's summer is usually about May 1 - October 1, if you go by weather patterns and heat - it just started early this year)
I was getting at preventive measures related to your original statement, Yeah, you don't want to be one of those people...
Mobile homes, yeah. MH parks could have community underground shelters. Many RV parks and even city or county lake camping areas in Oklahoma have those.
Far as the rest of it goes, people continue with daily life on issue of a tornado watch, even a PDS watch. Commerce does not stop. Interstates, local roads, businesses, and schools do not close, and churches generally do not cancel Wednesday night Bible meetings as they do in winter weather.
Point is, people will be on the roads when tornadoes happen and "you" could easily be one of those who finds all you can do is head for the nearest creek or ditch 'cause using option 2(3) is all you got.
:)
Have a nice day.
Why do I get scared when major tectonic systems are "quiet"?
If that all happens at once, I'm hunting you down. Just sayin'
Yeah I keep getting drawn back to it perusing the maps. They don't need the rain..
Tropically the world has really been quiet the last few days til now. 95B just got put up.
WWUS40 KWNS 271843
WWP5
TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0235
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0142 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011
WT 0235 PDS
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : >95%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : >95%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : >95%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : >95%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : >95%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : >95%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%
&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 4.0
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 70
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 25040
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : YES
&&
FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND
WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU5.
$$
Awe! Rub it in! Lol. Hubby works 4 on/4 off and every day of his last 4 off it was too windy to take our boat out fishing. We couldn't even fish from the pier unless we tied ourselves to it. Tempted to drive the boat down your way but with my luck I'd bring the wind with me. Lol. Enjoy the beautiful weather. :)
Hrm... <95% across the board - check
4 inch hail - check
Hurricane force gusts - check
50k storm tops - check
PDS - check
people freaking out here on the blog.. uh.. what? I'm shocked (and relieved) nobody is freaking out. Its been VERY calm here on the blog - like it should be.
Hopefully, people are remaining calm in MS/AL/TN, and staying safe.
Heyyy!!
Yes it has!
Statement as of 2:46 PM EDT on April 27, 2011
... A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 315 PM EDT/215 PM CDT/ for Marion and Hamilton counties...
At 241 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar continued to indicate a line of tornado producing storms. These tornado producing storms were located along a line extending from 7 miles northwest of Middle Valley to Red Bank to Lookout Mountain... or along a line extending from 10 miles southeast of Dunlap to Chattanooga to Rossville... moving northeast at 70 mph.
Locations in the warning include...
Soddy-Daisy... Harrison... Shady Grove... East Brainerd... Sale
Creek... Ooltewah... Collegedale and Birchwood.
Precautionary/preparedness actions...
The safest place to be during a tornado is in a basement. Get under a workbench or other piece of sturdy furniture. If no basement is available... seek shelter on the lowest floor of the building in an interior hallway or room such as a closet. Use blankets or pillows to cover your body and always stay away from windows.
If in Mobile homes or vehicles... evacuate them and get inside a substantial shelter. If no shelter is available... lie flat in the nearest ditch or other low spot and cover your head with your hands.
A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 PM EDT Wednesday afternoon/400 PM CDT Wednesday afternoon/ for southwest North Carolina and central Tennessee.
(i.e., that means find a safe place to be ahead of the storm...this is the line that was over by Huntsville maybe an hour ago).
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