Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Historic 3-day tornado outbreak kills at least 40

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 02:45 PM GMT del 18 Aprile 2011

In a stunning display of violence, close to 200 tornadoes rampaged across the Midwestern and Southeast U.S. April 14 - 16 in one of the largest tornado outbreaks in history. At least 40 people died in the tornadoes, making it the deadliest tornado outbreak since the Super Tuesday tornado outbreak of February 5 - 6, 2008, which killed 57 people. Severe thunderstorms and flash floods killed at least seven more people in this April's severe weather outbreak. Hardest hit was Bertie Country in northeast North Carolina, where an EF-3 tornado carved a path of destruction 18.8 miles long and 1/2 - 3/4 miles wide, killing 11 people in the town of Colerain. It was the deadliest single tornado in the United States since May 10, 2008 in Picher, Oklahoma and Neosho, Missouri, which killed 21. Also hard-hit Saturday was the Raleigh area, where a 3/10 mile-wide tornado carved a 63-mile long path of destruction through downtown. Damage was rated EF-2 in downtown Raleigh, but was EF-3 along other portions of its path, and the tornado killed five people. The 23 tornado deaths in North Carolina made Saturday's outbreak the deadliest day for tornadoes in the state since 1984, when the infamous March 28 tornado outbreak killed 57 people and injured 1248. The 1984 outbreak had more violent tornadoes--seven F4 twisters in all. None of the tornadoes in this year's outbreak have been rated above EF-3, as of yet.

Figure 1. Viewer-uploaded photo sent to WRAL of damage in Fayetteville, NC on Saturday.

Figure 2. Radar reflectivity image of North Carolina on Saturday during the height of the tornado outbreak, showing four simultaneous hook echoes of tornadoes. The storm at the top of the image is the EF-3 tornado that ripped through Raleigh, killing five people.

One of the largest tornado outbreaks in history
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged 120 preliminary tornado reports on Saturday, 120 on Friday, and 27 on Thursday, bringing the 3-day total to 267 twisters. In past years, these preliminary tornado reports typically were an over-count of the actual confirmed tornado totals by about 15%. However, this year the Storm Prediction Center stopped trying to filter out preliminary reports they thought were from the same tornado, so the over-count may be higher. Even so, the 3-day April 14 - 16 2011 tornado outbreak will likely will end up with close to 200 confirmed tornadoes, making it the largest tornado outbreak since the 235 tornadoes recorded in the May 22 - 31, 2008 outbreak. According to a list of tornado outbreaks maintained by Wikipedia, only two other tornado outbreaks have had as many as 150 twisters--the May 2004 outbreak (385), and the May 2003 outbreak (401). An average April typically has 150 - 160 tornadoes across the entire U.S.

Figure 3. North Carolina Department of Transportation worker Steven Hoag sat in his car filming the EF-2 tornado that hit Wilson, North Carolina on Saturday. We can hear his side of a cell phone conversation to his sister as the tornado passes directly over him, unroofing a Walgreens store across the street. His calmness and lack of concern are truly extraordinary to hear (in an interview with the local ABC affiliate, Hoag attributes his calmness to his family upbringing, and to being an ex-Marine.) Hoag was very fortunate, as the 120-mph winds of the tornado rolled several cars as much as 100 feet.

Another significant severe weather outbreak coming on Tuesday
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is predicting another major severe weather outbreak for the Midwest on Tuesday, when a strong cold front is expected to sweep across the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys. A "moderate" risk of severe weather is expected across much of Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana. The weather conditions are not expected to be as conducive for severe weather as was the case Saturday, when SPC placed much of North Carolina in their "high risk" area for severe weather, the only "high risk" forecast they've issued this year.

Figure 4. Severe weather risk for Tuesday.

Wikipedia has a nice summary of the April 14 - 16 tornado outbreak.

Jeff Masters

Tornado - Pine Apple,AL (EarlBcom)

Tornado just south of Pine Apple, AL on around 5:40pm. This storm was a part of the Alabama tornado outbreak on April 15, 2011. earlb.com VIDEO - See video of tornado at earlb.com

Between Water Front Park and Holiday City Mobile Home Park (taylor68s)

Jacksonville NC

Tornado (KB9JTO)

Taken near Pike 277 and MO-NN.

Categories: Tornado

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751. Levi32 06:30 AM GMT del 20 Aprile 2011
It looks like, regardless of what comes of this disturbance, Florida may get some rain from it early next week. Member Since: novembre 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25439

752. Ylee 08:35 AM GMT del 20 Aprile 2011
All of the tornado warnings have expired.... It seems that all this severe weather has worn out everyone.... Member Since: Febbraio 3, 2011 Posts: 65 Comments: 11283

753. aquak9 10:09 AM GMT del 20 Aprile 2011
good morning dayshift. Where's Cheerleader Ike? He needs to wave some pom-poms around or something. Quoting Levi32: It looks like, regardless of what comes of this disturbance, Florida may get some rain from it early next week. Member Since: Agosto 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 24996

754. CybrTeddy 10:12 AM GMT del 20 Aprile 2011
Quoting CyclonicVoyage: A lil map before I turn in, concerning our C-ATL aoi. Night All If it can get north, it has a chance. Member Since: Luglio 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20178

755. IKE 10:56 AM GMT del 20 Aprile 2011
Quoting aquak9: good morning dayshift. Where's Cheerleader Ike? He needs to wave some pom-poms around or something. lol....just got a loop going of the "disturbance". Waiting on a 91L to be designated. Stay tuned! Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

756. IKE 11:03 AM GMT del 20 Aprile 2011
From Crownweather...... """Quick Update On The Area Of Disturbed Weather Northeast of Puerto Rico Rob Lightbown on April 20, 2011, 6:18 am I wanted to very quickly update all of you on the area of disturbed weather that is located to the northeast of Puerto Rico near 23 North Latitude, 60 West Longitude. Satellite imagery from the overnight hours into early this morning showed that convection is cycling up and down near the center of this disturbance. The global model guidance continues to be in good agreement in insisting that this system will try to develop into a weak sub-tropical storm as we get into Thursday and especially Friday. The key timeframe for this system will be from late Thursday through Friday when this system approaches an upper level trough of low pressure and encounters an area of lower wind shear values. This area of lower wind shear values may give this system an opportunity to develop into a sub-tropical storm between Thursday evening and Friday evening. It should be noted that the model guidance also agrees that this system will quickly weaken and dissipate by Saturday as it approaches the eastern Bahamas due to very strong wind shear values. I suspect that the National Hurricane Center will label this system Invest 91-L within the next 24 hours. What is an Invest you ask? An Invest is basically an area of disturbed weather that the National Hurricane Center has interest in. Once a disturbance is labeled an Invest, track model guidance is run on the system and also a floater satellite image is placed over the area of interest allowing for a closer view of the disturbed weather. I will continue to monitor this area of disturbed weather and will likely post again early Thursday morning."""............ WOOHOO! Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

758. emcf30 11:48 AM GMT del 20 Aprile 2011
He seems to be in the right places almost every time Member Since: Agosto 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1926

759. nrtiwlnvragn 11:48 AM GMT del 20 Aprile 2011
Quoting IKE: lol....just got a loop going of the "disturbance". Waiting on a 91L to be designated. Stay tuned! I'll help you out, I don't think it will be designated. TAFB in their surface forecasts show the low attached to a front and as long as that thinking continues, no tropical/subtropical cyclone. Now that I have typed that, expect an invest! Member Since: Settembre 23, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8915

760. aquak9 11:51 AM GMT del 20 Aprile 2011
Ike has lost his ever-lovin' mind. Member Since: Agosto 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 24996

761. IKE 11:52 AM GMT del 20 Aprile 2011
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn: I'll help you out, I don't think it will be designated. TAFB in their surface forecasts show the low attached to a front and as long as that thinking continues, no tropical/subtropical cyclone. Now that I have typed that, expect an invest! :( *tears rolling down face* Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

763. IKE 11:59 AM GMT del 20 Aprile 2011
Quoting emcf30: He seems to be in the right places almost every time """Wipers....wipers....wipers!!!!!!!!!!""" They seem to be just slightly more excited then...... """I'd say it's coming right toward me""" """I happen to be recording it...that's even better isn't it""" """It's gonna pass right over me""" """I'm still good....now I got a problem with what I'm driving. It's damaged""" Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

765. IKE 12:08 PM GMT del 20 Aprile 2011
Looks like whatever is left of the "disturbance" in the western ATL will eventually get drawn into a cold front heading into the SE USA about a week from now...per the 6Z GFS @ 180 hours... Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

767. jitterboy 12:23 PM GMT del 20 Aprile 2011
Anyone know how a tornado warning is generated? Is there a human looking at the radar on a constant basis or is it more computer generated? Thanks Member Since: Dicembre 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 121

768. snotly 12:31 PM GMT del 20 Aprile 2011
Different perspective of Pike County, MO twister from Waly-mart parking lot. Hint, turn off computer speakers (sirens) Member Since: Agosto 27, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 657

769. emcf30 12:41 PM GMT del 20 Aprile 2011
Poor guy, the Tornado took his hamburger Member Since: Agosto 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1926

770. jitterboy 12:42 PM GMT del 20 Aprile 2011
Quoting snotly: Different perspective of Pike County, MO twister from Waly-mart parking lot. Hint, turn off computer speakers (sirens) One may drag the cursor back and forth at the bottom, turns the video into a time lapse. Kinda cool. Member Since: Dicembre 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 121

771. jitterboy 12:45 PM GMT del 20 Aprile 2011
Quoting emcf30: Poor guy, the Tornado took his hamburger Let go of my Eggo! Member Since: Dicembre 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 121

772. emcf30 12:46 PM GMT del 20 Aprile 2011
Quoting IKE: """Wipers....wipers....wipers!!!!!!!!!!""" They seem to be just slightly more excited then...... """I'd say it's coming right toward me""" """I happen to be recording it...that's even better isn't it""" """It's gonna pass right over me""" """I'm still good....now I got a problem with what I'm driving. It's damaged""" LOL Member Since: Agosto 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1926

773. emcf30 12:47 PM GMT del 20 Aprile 2011
Quoting jitterboy: Let go of my Eggo! I bet I would know who would win Member Since: Agosto 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1926

774. IKE 12:50 PM GMT del 20 Aprile 2011
I see the spin now near 23N and 60W.... Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

775. nrtiwlnvragn 12:51 PM GMT del 20 Aprile 2011
NEW BLOG Member Since: Settembre 23, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8915

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