Early 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 06:22 AM GMT del 07 Aprile 2011

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Hi everybody, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. 

A continuation of the pattern of much above-average Atlantic hurricane activity we've seen since 1995 is on tap for 2011, according to the latest seasonal forecast issued April 6 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). They are calling for 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes. An average season has 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The new forecast is nearly identical to their forecast made in December, which called for 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes. Only six seasons since 1851 have had as many as 17 named storms; 19 seasons have had 9 or more hurricanes. The 2011 forecast calls for a much above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (48% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (47% chance, 30% chance is average). The Caribbean is forecast to have a 61% chance of seeing at least one major hurricane (42% is average.) Five years with similar pre-season November atmospheric and oceanic conditions were selected as "analogue" years that the 2011 hurricane season may resemble: 2008, 1999, 1996, 1955, and 2006.  The first four years listed all had neutral to La Niña SST's during hurricane season, while 2006 had El Niño SST's.  The average activity for these years was 12.6 named storms, 7.8 hurricanes, and 4.8 major hurricanes.

This year, the forecasters have introduced a new statistical model for their  April forecasts.  There are four components in this model:

1. Average sea-level pressure in March around the Azores in the subtropical Atlantic.

2. The average of January through March sea-surface temperatures (SST's) in the tropical Atlantic off the coast of Africa.

3. Average sea-level pressure in February and March for the southern tropical Pacific ocean west of South America.

4. Forecasts of September's SST in the tropical Pacific using a dynamical model from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 

The first two components are loosely linked together.  Statistical studies have shown that a weaker subtropical high near the Azores, combined with warmer SST's off the coast of Africa in March are associated with weak winds near the surface and aloft from August to October.  This decrease in wind speeds reduces wind shear which can disrupt forming storms.  These March conditions also are associated with warmer SST's in August to October, which is also favorable for more tropical storms.   For this forecast, the first component is strongly favorable for increased hurricane activity, while the second component is weakly negative.

The last two components represent the changes in sea-surface temperature and sea-level pressure that are the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).  Briefly speaking,  El Niño conditions (warm sea-surface temperatures) are not favorable for Atlantic hurricanes.  For more info on ENSO and hurricanes, Jeff has this article.

Using the ECMWF model as guidance (see Figure 1), the CSU group believes that SST's in the tropical Pacific will be neutral (less than 0.5°C from normal).  This would have a small negative effect on hurricane activity.  However, the tropical Pacific sea-level pressure shows that the atmosphere looks like a La Niña event is still going on.  This is strongly favorable for Atlantic hurricane activity in the CSU group's model.

Figure 1. Forecasts of El Niño conditions by 20 computer models, made in March 2011. The ECMWF forecast used by the CSU group is represented by the dark orange square.  The forecasts for August-September-October (ASO) show that 5 models predict El Niño conditions, 7 predict neutral conditions, and 5 predict a weak to moderate La Niña. El Niño conditions are defined as occurring when sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America ( the "Niño 3.4 region) rise to 0.5°C above average (top red line). La Niña conditions occur when SSTs in this region fall to 0.5°C below average. Image credit: Columbia University.

How accurate are the April forecasts? While the formulas used by CSU do well in making hindcasts--correctly modeling the behavior of past hurricane seasons--their April hurricane season forecasts have had no skill in predicting the future. This year's April forecast is using a new system and has not yet produced a verified forecast.  The scheme used in the past three years successfully predicted active hurricane seasons for 2008 and 2010, but failed to properly predict the relatively quiet 2009 hurricane season. A different formula was used prior to 2008, and the April forecasts using that formula showed no skill over a simple forecast using climatology. CSU maintains an Excel spreadsheet of their forecast errors ( expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient, where positive means a skilled forecast, and negative means they did worse than climatology) for their their April forecasts. For now, these April forecasts should simply be viewed as an interesting research effort that has the potential to make skillful forecasts. The next CSU forecast, due by June 1, is the one worth paying attention to. Their early June forecasts have shown considerable skill over the years.


Figure 2.
Accuracy of long-range forecasts of Atlantic hurricane season activity performed by Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray of Colorado State University (colored squares) and Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (colored lines). The CSU team's April forecast skill is not plotted, but is less than zero. The skill is measured by the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS), which looks at the error and squares it, then compares the percent improvement the forecast has over a climatological forecast of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. TS=Tropical Storms, H= Hurricanes, IH=Intense Hurricanes, ACE=Accumulated Cyclone Energy, NTC=Net Tropical Cyclone Activity. Image credit: TSR.

2011 Atlantic hurricane season forecast from Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

The  British  private  forecasting  firm  Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.  (TSR),   issued  their  2011  Atlantic hurricane season forecast on April 5. They are also calling for  a  very  active  year: 14. 2 named storms, 7.5 hurricanes, and 3.6 intense hurricanes. We would round that to 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes.   This  compares to their forecast issued in December of 15.6 named storms, 8.4 hurricanes,   and intense hurricanes. TSR predicts a 55%  chance  of  an  above-average  hurricane season, 28% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 17%  chance  of  a  below normal season. TSR bases their April forecast on predictions  that  sea  surface temperatures this fall in the tropical  Atlantic  will  be  above  about  0.08°C above average, and trade  wind  speeds  will  be  about 0.2  m/s  slower  than average.  The decrease in the trade wind speeds is favorable for enhanced hurricane activity, while the forecast SST's are expected to be neutral for hurricane activity.

TSR puts their skill level right next to the forecast numbers: 13% skill above chance at forecasting the number of named storms, 11% skill for hurricanes, and 10% skill for intense hurricanes. That's not much skill, and really, we have to wait until the June 1 forecasts by CSU, NOAA, and TSR to get a forecast with reasonable skill.

Rob's critiques of the April forecasts
I have to note that Jeff and I wrote this article together.  He wrote the general framework before the forecasts were issued, while I wrote the details based on the actual forecasts.  So the preceding text is a joint production.  However, I have a few observations to make that are my responsibility alone.

First, I am disappointed that the CSU group has changed forecast models only after three seasonal forecasts.  This makes it very difficult to assess the skill of the current forecast using past performance.  This is very important for forecast users, and they do it everyday.  For example, I tend to discount a forecast of rain if it comes from a source that over-forecasts rain (The boy who cried wolf problem).

In the documentation that came with the April forecast, the CSU group argue that the hindcasts show the new forecast model has skill.  However, I think hindcasts are a poor substitute for real forecasts in understanding the skill of a statistical forecast model, like that of the CSU's group.  As Jeff noted, the previous forecast model did well with the hindcasts and yet had mixed results with the actual forecasts.  This does not give me confidence that the new forecast model will be superior to the previous model.

From a philosophical viewpoint, I am inherently cautious about statistical forecast models like the one used by the CSU group.  Essentially, they look at what happened in the past and use that to predict the future.  However, for making forecasts, we assume that the relationships in space and time between the predictors (such as the average March sea-level pressure around the Azores) and the predictands (Atlantic hurricane activity) does not change as we move forward in time.  In a world with climate change, that's a tricky assumption to make.

In any event, it is customary in the meteorological community to continue running older forecast guidance models after the introduction of newer models.  This allows forecasters and forecast users to leverage their knowledge of the forecast skill of the older model and gain insight into the forecast skill of the new model.  The CSU group really should have included the forecast from the previous statistical forecast system in this forecast.     

I am uneasy with some of the methodology choices made in implementing the forecast model.  Data for the first three predictors was obtained from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), NOAA's newest and most advanced reanalysis product.  However, CFSR data for 2010 and 2011 has not been released yet, so the CSU group used NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (NNR), NOAA's first-generation reanalysis, to fill in the gaps.  Due to differences in design, resolution, etc., CFSR and NNR can have different depictions of the state of the atmosphere.  So using NNR's March 2011 average SLP instead of CFSR's could alter the forecast in unexpected ways.  It would be interesting to see how CFSR's 2010-2011 data changes the results. 

In any event, we will have to wait and see what the Atlantic hurricane season of 2011 brings.

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Oh how I am so happy to see the end of cold air masses and dry air being replaced by consistent warm, humid, Florida weather.

This is the life :)

its 89 at my house with a dewpoint of 67, great April weather in Central Florida!
Member Since: Agosto 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7310
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
some here can be well a little uptight sometimes


ain't that the truth
Member Since: Agosto 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7310
Quoting Neapolitan:

It bothers me immensely that many in positions of power are insisting that our nation's youth be taught non-scientific mumbo-jumbo, yes. I intend to live in this country as an old man, and I don't want it run by people who are wholly ignorant of scientific fact. No one should. And as for "dragging it into conversations that don't involve such matters at all", there exists a strong correlation between those who deny equally both the overwhelming science behind AGWT and the overwhelming science behind the theory of evolution. If you ask me, that makes the two very much fair game where conversations are concerned.

And, I might add, you love becoming very defensive any time anyone questions the scientific validity of Creationism. In light of your desire to become a scientist, does the fact that it's scientifically baseless perhaps bothers your conscience, chap? ;-)



Sorry, being a Christian doesn't have anything to do with Global Warming.

Get back to me sometime when you decided to stop being a know it all.
Member Since: Agosto 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7310
1281. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Jedkins01:



hahahaha are you kidding me? That's just a sign of someone who can't have a good time! I love the 3 stooges. They are a classic.
some here can be well a little uptight sometimes
Member Since: Luglio 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
Quoting Jedkins01:


It sure seems to bother you a lot for something that is a fairy tale. Personally, I'm not too worried if anyone ever believed that Star Wars is real or the battle for middle earth is real. You love dragging that into conversations that don't involve such matters at all. Maybe it bothers your conscience eh chap.

It bothers me immensely that many in positions of power are insisting that our nation's youth be taught non-scientific mumbo-jumbo, yes. I intend to live in this country as an old man, and I don't want it run by people who are wholly ignorant of scientific fact. No one should. And as for "dragging it into conversations that don't involve such matters at all", there exists a strong correlation between those who deny equally both the overwhelming science behind AGWT and the overwhelming science behind the theory of evolution. If you ask me, that makes the two very much fair game where conversations are concerned.

And, I might add, you love becoming very defensive any time anyone questions the scientific validity of Creationism. In light of your oft-stated desire to become a scientist, does the fact that it's scientifically baseless perhaps bothers your conscience, chap? ;-)
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Quoting hydrus:
I just learned that one....C...then G ...then..A-minor....That is da whole song...Great tune.


Nice, man I wish I could learn the guitar, and many other instruments. I guess you can't have it all, Ive committed too much to the science world to have time to learn instruments. My hope still remains, that when I graduate college I will learn instruments and learn how to play my favorite music :)

Simple Man is one of my favorite songs, especially because in the world I'm in, the science world, people easily lose sight of the simple things life and make things overcomplicated. My roots are strong in simplicity and rural life, I take it with me wherever I am to balance out our world that doesn't know when to slow down.
Member Since: Agosto 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7310
1278. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
suns out now here temps get a boost
Member Since: Luglio 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
1234 Neapolitan "...saving money is always more important than saving lives where corporations are concerned, so they took a calculated risk and built for the very lowest end of possibilities.
As it turns out, they calculated wrong, and now thousands over several generations will likely pay the eventual price.
(Though that's not all bad; I imagine TEPCO's executives will get huge cash bonuses next year since millions haven't died. Yet.)"

Hyperbolic exaggeration doesn't help in arguing ones case -- even Chernobyl has caused only thousands of deaths -- because it then becomes a weakness that adversaries can exploit to their advantage.
Especially when the reality is bad enough.
eg There is now talk of turning the 20kilometer EvacuationZone into an ExclusionZone. Besides forced abandonment of homes and businesses, it will also have the longterm*effect of taking ~60,000hectares(~150,000acres) of farmland out of production^... and possibly as many (or more) hectares of fishing grounds.
Already Japan's government has issued orders forbidding the planting of rice crops.

It wasn't really politics or even safety considerations that took the construction of new nuclear powerplants in the US off the table since ThreeMileIsland. It was the lack of insurability. ie Insurance companies could not offer coverage when the associated risk was literally inestimable.*^
Consider the cost of buying 60,000hectares of farmland as well as the homes and businesses located in the EvacuationZone. Then add in the cost of compensating many tens of thousands of employees who've lost their livelyhoods there due to TEPCO executives' high degree of tolerance for snafu.

And FukushimaDaiichi isn't even vaguely close to a real worst case scenario.
Not even a worst case scenario for an accident of its present scope: consider eg SanOnofre and its more urbanized environs. Or even FukushimaDaiichi if the wind had been blowing inland instead of blowing out to sea most of the time.

* Many years if not decades. It was just early this year that the last of the sheep ranches in the BritishIsles have been cleared to sell (or even move) their products after contamination from the 1986 ChernobylMeltdown.

^ Minus the areas occupied by roads, towns, and residences.

*^ And so the fight to limit insurance liability (ie to pass the excess costs onto taxpayers) went to Congress. With their relatively recent success after many years of lobbying, new construction has been approved.
Member Since: Agosto 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting Xyrus2000:


No, you were not right. Not even close. You are being incredibly over dramatic. We never had the capacity to destroy the Earth, even at the peak of the cold war. We had the weaponry to kill ourselves off, and a chunk of other life as well but there are plenty of life forms that have the capability to withstand both intense radiation and nuclear winter.

Try researching mortality statistics on power generation before making sweeping claims that nuclear power is killing us off. If anything you should be looking at coal, which not only kills thousands but is considerably more damaging to the global environment. Just check out the underground coal seam fires for an example. Or perhaps pay a visit to Centralia, PA.
Xyrus which nuke company do you work for?

So we don't have the capability to wipe out all of life. But enough to wipe out the majority. You act like thats a good thing. The ones that survive would pass on dna mutations. The world would be a terrible place.


Your support for nuclear energy is disgusting. Most pro nuke fans acknowledge and sympathize with the dangers and try and say the benefits are greater. You on the other hand blindly support it showing little to no remorse for any dangers passing ALL DANGERS off like its nothing to worry about. EVERY post you make, you downplay any post related to nuclear problems.

Truly sickening.
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1275. hydrus
Quoting Jedkins01:


I wonder if anyone is enough of a party pooper to ban me for posting this :)
I just learned that one....C...then G ...then..A-minor....That is da whole song...Great tune.
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1274. hydrus
Quoting Grothar:


Don't feel bad, I got banned once for posting a video of the Three Stooges. We all get hit once in awhile.
Hello Gro...I am having a strange day..It feels like 1975 to me for some reason...Wuz it something I read on the blog....I wunder...It might get stormy here in middle TN again tomorrow. There is a strong surface low forecast to develop along the front..This feature was not showing up on yesterdays model runs....Link
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1273. Patrap
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1271. Patrap

Courtesy: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio

'Towers in the Tempest' is a narrated animation that explains recent scientific insights into how hurricanes intensify. This intensification can be caused by a phenomenon called a 'hot tower'. For the first time, research meteorologists have run complex simulations using a very fine temporal resolution of 3 minutes. Combining this simulation data with satellite observations enables detailed study of 'hot towers'. The science of 'hot towers' is described using: observed hurricane data from a satellite, descriptive illustrations, and volumetric visualizations of simulation data. The first section of the animation shows actual data from Hurricane Bonnie observed by NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) spacecraft. Three dimensional precipitation radar data reveal a strong 'hot tower' in Hurricane Bonnie's internal structure. The second section uses illustrations to show the dynamics of a hurricane and the formation of 'hot towers'. 'Hot towers' are formed as air spirals inward towards the eye and is forced rapidly upwards, accelerating the movement of energy into high altitude clouds. The third section shows these processes using volumetric cloud, wind, and vorticity data from a supercomputer simulation of Hurricane Bonnie. Vertical wind speed data highlights a 'hot tower'. Arrows representing the wind field move rapidly up into the 'hot tower, boosting the energy and intensifying the hurricane. Combining satellite observations with super-computer simulations provides a powerful tool for studying Earth's complex systems.

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Quoting Grothar:


Don't feel bad, I got banned once for posting a video of the Three Stooges. We all get hit once in awhile.



hahahaha are you kidding me? That's just a sign of someone who can't have a good time! I love the 3 stooges. They are a classic.
Member Since: Agosto 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7310
Quoting Neapolitan:

Out in the general public--where fairytale Creationism is still looked upon with greater credibility than evolution by many--the jury is definitely "still out". But among climate scientists, there is absolutely no doubt that the planet is warming, there is absolutely no doubt that that warming is happening primarily because of increasing concentrations of CO2 and other GHGs, and there is absolutely no doubt that those GHGs are rising primarily as a direct result of our wanton burning of fossil fuels, and the feedback mechanisms initiated and driven by that burning.

Your allegation that "the people in charge of educating us on AGW have been caught time and time again manipulating the numbers" is patently untrue, if not outright fraudulent. Have you any actual proof? Or are you just hoping nobody will notice the blanket slander? ;-)


It sure seems to bother you a lot for something that is a fairy tale. Personally, I'm not too worried if anyone ever believed that Star Wars is real or the battle for middle earth is real. You love dragging that into conversations that don't involve such matters at all. Maybe it bothers your conscience eh chap.
Member Since: Agosto 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7310
1268. Grothar
Quoting Jedkins01:
This blog boggles my mind sometimes, my comment about defending meteorologists yesterday was removed for "violating community standards". Yet I see more and more comments in this blog that have profanity and sexual innuendo. Injustice or coincidence? I don't know, but something isn't right, that I do know...


Don't feel bad, I got banned once for posting a video of the Three Stooges. We all get hit once in awhile.
Member Since: Luglio 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25564
1267. hydrus
Many of the models have it very stormy in the Central U.S. for the next 7 days....NOGAPS.....Link
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0396
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0130 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN MN...NERN IA...NWRN IL AND MUCH OF WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 101830Z - 102030Z

OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...INITIALLY
FROM ERN MN THROUGH NERN IA...THEN SPREADING RAPIDLY EWD THROUGH WI
AND EXTREME NWRN IL. SUPERCELLS WITH STRONG TORNADOES...VERY LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. A TORNADO WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY 20Z.

THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A DEEP LOW PRESSURE AREA IN
E-CNTRL MN SSWWD THROUGH SRN MN...NWRN IA INTO SERN NEB WITH A WARM
FRONT FROM THE SURFACE LOW IN E-CNTRL MN THROUGH NRN WI. THE LOW
WILL DEVELOP EWD TO NEAR THE WI BORDER BY 21Z. NEWD ADVECTION OF
HIGHER THETA-E AIR ALONG A STRONG SSWLY LLJ BENEATH EML PLUME /8.5
C/KM LAPSE RATES/ AND DIABATIC WARMING IS RESULTING IN NEWD
DESTABILIZATION WITH TIME. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS
CAPPED BY THE WARM EML AS EVIDENCED BY 18Z MINNEAPOLIS SOUNDING.

UPPER JET IS SHIFTING NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. RAPID ACCAS
DEVELOPMENT RECENTLY OBSERVED FROM NERN IA THROUGH SWRN WI IS LIKELY
INDICATIVE OF NEWD EXPANDING ZONE OF AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING WITHIN THE
UPPER JET EXIT REGION. THIS FORCING IN CONJUNCTION WITH FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A DEEPER ZONE OF ASCENT THAT SHOULD
EVENTUALLY ERODE THE CAP ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT FROM ERN MN INTO NERN IA. STORMS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN DISCRETE
MODES FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG DEEP
LAYER WIND AND VERTICAL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. LARGEST
HODOGRAPHS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CNTRL THROUGH NRN WI WHERE NEAR
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BACKED TO SLY EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW
WITH 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY EXCEEDING 250 M2/S2. STORMS
DEVELOPING WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY BECOME CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.
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could someone post a linnk for the models plzz the eastern pacific seem to be in action
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Quoting RMuller:


The jury is still out on whether it is warming or whether it is caused by man. My point is that the people in charge of educating us on AGW have been caught time and time again manipulating the numbers.


... or turning it into a highly heated, politicized and polarized debate. I'm sure glad no one here is like that.

WTO
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1263. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Jedkins01:
This blog boggles my mind sometimes, my comment about defending meteorologists yesterday was removed for "violating community standards". Yet I see more and more comments in this blog that have profanity and sexual innuendo. Injustice or coincidence? I don't know, but something isn't right, that I do know...
move along nothing to see here its only a figment of your imagination


lol
Member Since: Luglio 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
1262. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: Luglio 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
This blog boggles my mind sometimes, my comment about defending meteorologists yesterday was removed for "violating community standards". Yet I see more and more comments in this blog that have profanity and sexual innuendo that don't get removed. Injustice or coincidence? I don't know, but something isn't right, that I do know...
Member Since: Agosto 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7310
Quoting Neapolitan:

Out in the general public--where fairytale Creationism is still looked upon with greater credibility than evolution by many--the jury is definitely "still out". But among climate scientists, there is absolutely no doubt that the planet is warming, there is absolutely no doubt that that warming is happening primarily because of increasing concentrations of CO2 and other GHGs, and there is absolutely no doubt that those GHGs are rising primarily as a direct result of our wanton burning of fossil fuels, and the feedback mechanisms initiated and driven by that burning.

Your allegation that "the people in charge of educating us on AGW have been caught time and time again manipulating the numbers" is patently untrue, if not outright fraudulent. Have you any actual proof? Or are you just hoping nobody will notice the blanket slander? ;-)

Nice one. I actually looked for the post you had about the fifth investigation in regards to 'climategate' Boehner trying to disprove it and all.

For Mr RMuller (nice reference by the way I got it) the pesky thing about science blogs, which FYI are typically filled with scientists, they generally demand facts to back up claims. I know, I know, those pesky facts again.
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1259. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: Luglio 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
Video from Weather.com of yesterday's tornadoes.
Link

And...
Link
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1257. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: Luglio 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
Quoting RMuller:


The jury is still out on whether it is warming or whether it is caused by man. My point is that the people in charge of educating us on AGW have been caught time and time again manipulating the numbers.

Out in the general public--where fairytale Creationism is still looked upon with greater credibility than evolution by many--the jury is definitely "still out". But among climate scientists, there is absolutely no doubt that the planet is warming, there is absolutely no doubt that that warming is happening primarily because of increasing concentrations of CO2 and other GHGs, and there is absolutely no doubt that those GHGs are rising primarily as a direct result of our wanton burning of fossil fuels, and the feedback mechanisms initiated and driven by that burning.

Your allegation that "the people in charge of educating us on AGW have been caught time and time again manipulating the numbers" is patently untrue, if not outright fraudulent. Have you any actual proof? Or are you just hoping nobody will notice the blanket slander? ;-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1255. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Patrap:
Have the Last Four Summers and Winters Felt Warmer?
Posted on Apr 09, 2011 01:55:08 PM | Adam Voiland


yes winters are not as cold or snowy as before summers are hotter and more humid with stronger storms when they occur
Member Since: Luglio 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
Quoting RMuller:


The jury is still out on whether it is warming or whether it is caused by man. My point is that the people in charge of educating us on AGW have been caught time and time again manipulating the numbers.

Evidence?
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1252. emcf30
(TheWeatherSpace.com) -- A widespread threat of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes will extend from Wisconsin, southward to Dallas, Texas today through tonight.

Our Tornado Risk Analysis Model (T.R.A.M.) is pinpointing a yellow value, a low risk widespread area of tornado chances from the Upper Mississippi River Valley states to Dallas, Texas.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon across Eastern Iowa and Western Wisconsin, moving east-northeast through there and Northern Illinois.

Later in the evening hours and early night, the line will develop farther south, impacting Missouri and Northern Texas.

The T.R.A.M. is indicating two major cities in the direct path of tornadoes with this storm.

Dallas, Texas and St. Louis, Missouri are in the direct line of supercells capable of producing tornadoes.

This could be a tornado outbreak day with multiple F3 and higher, however the lack of backing winds across Wisconsin is making me believe it is a weaker tornado dynamic environment.

Now do not get me wrong, the 'low risk (yellow) value on the T.R.A.M. is not to be taken lightly. F1 and F2 tornadoes have been in the yellow shade and even those are dangerous. Red and purple are reserved for F3 and higher.

The only interesting thing I'm wondering is why the T.R.A.M. has a very small spot of red and pink value in Northeastern Wisconsin. I did not count that area but it will be a test today and see what hits that area.

Another area is a small yellow embedded green area in Northern Michigan, likely along the retreating warm front. Any storms developing there and riding the warm front would produce a tornado.

This is a dangerous event that will spread from Wisconsin, south to Dallas, Texas.

Storm chasers and spotters across the area are urged to report tornadoes to the National Weather Service. Anyone in Dallas, Texas should be on alert this evening for the south end of this line, possibly ending up in a tornado chance.

For this, the Tornado Risk Analysis Model has issued four Tornado Watch boxes in the areas of highest risk.
(Click for image)

Arrows indicate the direction of the storms in general, which means they may or may not travel outside of the box.

The Tornado Risk Analysis Model is an experimental project here at TheWeatherSpace.com, only seen at TheWeatherSpace.com, and is not a funded project, therefore only usually runs for afternoon and evening events.



Member Since: Agosto 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
1250. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: Luglio 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
what map

Sorry mate, I was talking about the lightning map you posted earlier.
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1248. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting jitterboy:

What is this map?
what map
Member Since: Luglio 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
here is an overlay of infared sat and lightening strikes up to 12 20 pm


Thanks KotG didn't read far enough.
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Quoting jitterboy:

What is this map?



satlelight map if i spell that right lol
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Quoting Patrap:
Ahhh,yes,the 60's were good times,& Bad times,..but never dull.







"There will be no fighting in the war room!"
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

What is this map?
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1243. hydrus
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
its going to get a little bumpy to say the least gonna be a long day for some and a long night for many more
I hope there are no long track tornadoes...The mets were saying that conditions may favor this type of activity.
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Follow up on my previous comments about TEPCO's 2007 "safety"culture that foreshadowed the (nearly inevitable accident waiting to happen) FukushimaDaiichi nuclear disaster:
Japan's nuclear industry makes standard practice of burning out day laborers, ie still uses essentially untrained workers to do the jobs that cause the highest exposure to radiation.

BTW: The article states that burning out such "independent subcontractors" is still standard practice in most other nations having nuclear powerplants; with an only slightly weaker implication that it still occurs in the US.
Member Since: Agosto 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
1241. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting hydrus:
Wisconsin will be getting a lot of serious weather today.. They do not seem to get a lot of the severe stuff.
its going to get a little bumpy to say the least gonna be a long day for some and a long night for many more
Member Since: Luglio 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
1240. hydrus
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


won't be much longer
Wisconsin will be getting a lot of serious weather today.. They do not seem to get a lot of the severe stuff.
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1238. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
<
Member Since: Luglio 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
Quoting aquak9:
Wow, thanks PCola. I appreciate that post. :)

I remember hiding under the desk (duck and cover), getting papers in school telling how to survive the aftermath (if you lived), My Dad wondering if we could actually build a shelter underground and not drown, watching TV during the Cuban missile crisis.
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1236. aquak9
As it turns out, they calculated wrong, and now thousands over several generations will likely pay the eventual price.

I agree, except I would replace the word "price" with "cost."

Price usually has an endpoint. Cost, like the nuclear situation in Japan, usually doesn't.
Member Since: Agosto 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25791
1235. aquak9
Wow, thanks PCola. I appreciate that post. :)
Member Since: Agosto 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25791
Quoting AussieStorm:
the reason why things went wrong was the tsunami was 14mtr high and the tsunami wall only 10mtrs high. Scientifically the mega quake was not expected. That's why the wall was only built to 10 mtrs.

There was ample evidence of previous historical quakes and tsunami of equal size and strength. It's not that they weren't expected; it's that saving money is always more important than saving lives where corporations are concerned, so they took a calculated risk and built for the very lowest end of possibilities.

As it turns out, they calculated wrong, and now thousands over several generations will likely pay the eventual price. (Though that's not all bad; I imagine TEPCO's executives will get huge cash bonuses next year since millions haven't died. Yet.)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.