Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Per CNN....no deaths in Australia from the tropical cyclone. I heard yesterday that the death toll from the winter storm in the USA was at 10. It's probably risen by now.

Quoting EnergyMoron:


Let's see... my job was $7,000 (I had to fix an unsafe solar hot water system so don't let that scare you)....

The unit will cost you minimum 1,500 (since I heat my house with water 2,500), less 500 cost for a tank unit. Thus at least 1,000

1,000 installation.

So that is at least 2,000 dollars.

And is your house up to electric code? You will need to plug the tankless in somewhere (your old tank unit probably works with a pilot light).

I just want to be as honest as possible (for a new build putting in a tank is silly).

CFLs quickest payout.

@EnergyMoron, can you take a look at this tankless water heater, please? It's $550, not $1500. Also, I've already got the "27 KW 3x9000 112.5 Amp" service for the Eco 27 model. I'm looking at the installation manual (but it's clear from the pics...you don't need to read that). I can run the wire myself. And the plumbing hookup seems quite straightforward for a plumber. I can go to Craigslist and get a licensed weekender to do the job for $300 MAX. Whatcha think?

Quoting EnergyMoron:


Stop the name calling.

I read the article in question and am aware of the logical flaws.

What does a pure ad hominer attack have to do with science?

This is meant as a purely rhetorical question, but are you a troll for the Koch's?

Umm---what? "Name calling"? I merely rearranged the letters in his name to suit my needs--which is pretty much what he does with the scientific facts to suit his.

Try and prove me wrong. ;-)

From Birmingham,AL....

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE QUITE A RANGE IN THE TEMPERATURE
DEPARTMENT. SUNDAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE WARMEST THAT WE WILL BE FOR
THE ENTIRE PERIOD. AFTER THAT...A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH THE LATTER ONE POTNETIALLY BRINGING THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES THAT WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS WINTER.

FIRST ITEM OF ORDER...MOS GUIDANCE IS RUNNING WAY TOO WARM DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD DUE TO IT BEING HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY CLIMO.
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE PHYSICAL SOLUTIONS WHICH SEEM TO BE HANDELING
THIS BETTER.

SECOND ITEM...PRECIPITATION. MORE THAN LIKELY...MOST IF NOT ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA HAS A GOOD CHANCE AT SEING SOME WINTER
PRECIPITATION...MOST LIKELY SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME
QUESTION MARKS THOUGH AS BOTH GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO SPLIT FAR FROM
EACH OTHER FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS. BOTH MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH MOVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA MONDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD BE WELL AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH AREA WIDE TO
SUPPORT A SWITCHOVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
WITH WHATEVER LEFTOVER MOISTURE IS LEFT. THIS IS NOT THE SCENARIO TO
SEE ANY KIND OF HEAVY SNOW. THE GFS DOES WANT TO BRING A POST
FRONTAL SHORT WAVE ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF AREA...BUT BOTH GEM AND
ECMWF NOT SUPPORTING THIS...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT EVERYTHING PRECIP
FREE ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE SET TO RAPIDLY
TRANSITION AND IT IS ALSO WHEN BOTH GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE
(GEM IS NOT AVAILABLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD). THERE IS A LOT OF
COLD AIR IN PLACE AND BOTH MODELS BRING IN MOISTURE BACK WITH THE
GFS BEING THE FASTEST...BRINGING PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. IF ANY PRECIPITATION OCCURS...IT WILL ALL BE SNOW.
SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW NO SIGNS OF ANY WARM AIR INTRUSION BY EITHER
MODEL.

NOW...THE REASON BOTH MODELS DIVERGE IS THAT THE ECMWF HITS US WITH
A WINTER STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS IT DEVELOPS A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF. THE GFS IS NOWHERE NEAR THAT AS
IT ONLY SHOWS A SURFACE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH SUCH A DRASTIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO MODEL...WILL
NOT BITE ON A PARTICULAR SOLUTION. I WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT SINCE THE GFS AT LEAST SHOWS SOME PRECIPITATION
WITH THE FRONT AND COLD AIR IN PLACE.

LOOKING TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND...BOTH MODELS PROJECT WHAT COULD BE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
SO FAR THIS WINTER. DEFINITELY SOMETHING THAT WE WILL BE WATCHING
CLOSELY.

10/ARM

Good morning
The gfs shows 6 inches of rain accumulation over Trinidad for the next 7 days,interesting but not impossible.

Neo, re; #453.. The rants against JB read like an MSNBC blog. Nothing but far left leaning name calling against anyone right of center. Really, rants against Sarah, Rush and anybody on the right are featured. Soooo, any one center right HAS to be wrong. I'd give it a little more credence if all the responses were not progressive temper trantrums. BTW, I'm all for finding ways to get off of fossil fuels. Not because of climate change, but to quit sending money to peoples who would do our country harm, so we agree on that. You have a great day!!!

From the Miami NWS Discussion:

NEXT WEEK...THE GFS AND THE ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF NEXT WEEK`S COLD FRONT, HOWEVER A MUCH DRIER AND
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WILL MAKE A RETURN TO THE REGION. THE GFS
INDICATES A SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT WORKING THROUGH THE AREA LATE
MONDAY WITH A STRONGER REINFORCING SHOT MID WEEK, HOWEVER THE
ECMWF IS A TOUCH WEAKER (WARMER) WITH A PAIR OF FRONTS MOVING
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN THURS. ATTM TIMING AND TEMPS ARE
HARD TO NAIL DOWN, BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN.

Thanks for the blizzard list. I was in the blizzard of 79 in Chicago. Just started school. Mayor Bilandic lost his job because of that blizzard. The city was reporting side streets plowed when they weren't. (Well that's not entirely true. City official's side street were plowed.) If you just focus on one city you miss the bigger picture. There was the blizzard of 78 which extended from Chicago to the east coast. I was caught in Fort Wayne for 4 days as I was on a road trip. It took 12 hours to travel 130 miles during that storm. Another blizzard the same year struck a week later and shut down Pennsylvania and New Jersey. NJ had the best plowing system for it's freeways that I have ever seen. Going back some more, there was the blizzard of 73 that hit Milwaukee in April. 36 inches fell in one day. In three days it had melted significantly. I didn't make it all the way home and ended up staying at a friends house. There was the blizzard of 93 that hit an area south and east of Lake Michigan. Stayed at a fellow workers house for a day.

When traveling in these areas it quickly becomes apparent that how the local highway department handles the snow makes all the difference between whether things stay open or not. Traveling home from the blizzard in 93 there was a distinct difference in how well plowing had been done when crossing the county line. When caught in Fort Wayne in 78 the Sheriff had enlisted local ham radio operators with 4 wheelers to do mundane service tasks like delivering medicine and shoveling out elderly people's doors. In 79 in Chicago you shoveled out a parking space in front of your house. Heaven help the person who parked in someone else's parking space. When the city started doing side streets a year later they really couldn't plow the snow anywhere so they just drove down the streets with the sanders going full blast pelting the parked cars with large pieces of rock salt.

the hottest meteorologist in the world? others? twc girl at night miss egger

g'morning ike, nea, if ya'll are still here

we got any better tweaking for the end'o'next'week's cold snap for our area?

Quoting BigToe:
Neo, re; #453.. The rants against JB read like an MSNBC blog. Nothing but far left leaning name calling against anyone right of center. Really, rants against Sarah, Rush and anybody on the right are featured. Soooo, any one center right HAS to be wrong. I'd give it a little more credence if all the responses were not progressive temper trantrums. BTW, I'm all for finding ways to get off of fossil fuels. Not because of climate change, but to quit sending money to peoples who would do our country harm, so we agree on that. You have a great day!!!

I don't recall anyone bringing politics into this discussion; it began--and should stay with--weather. I merely called out a popular, though very often wrong, meteorologist on yet another of his very wrong forecasts. In this case, that forecast--that January 2011 would be the coldest month out of the last 300--was picked up and loudly trumpeted by both "global cooling" wishers and that forecaster's sycophants. But now that forecast has been proven wrong, I believe the absence of a mea culpa from that meteorologist is deafening, and in any case certainly says a lot about both his abilities and his prejudices.

As I've so often said: JB needs to stick with short-term weather forecasting--which he's good at--and leave the long-term climate forecasting to those who know what they're talking about. Either that, or be prepared to be challenged. Simple enough, no?

You, too, have a great day...

morning wunder bloggers

geoffrry- thanks - I saw it last night and it still makes me smile

hi keeper, g'morning, that's exactl;y what I wanted.

well not really the temps or the blues but

thank you for posting that

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
morning wunder bloggers

Good morning Keep.

@ #464, Cantore ALMOST let go w/ the B word. LOL

aquak9 your welcome

morning hydrus

Keep, that looks like some Mighty cold snap for the SE next week. Hope it's the last for the season.

Quoting aquak9:
hi keeper, g'morning, that's exactl;y what I wanted.

well not really the temps or the blues but

thank you for posting that

Good morning Aquak9..

Quoting Neapolitan:

As I've so often said: JB needs to stick with short-term weather forecasting--which he's good at--and leave the long-term climate forecasting to those who know what they're talking about. Either that, or be prepared to be challenged. Simple enough, no?

You, too, have a great day...

Exactly. If someone wants to play scientist in a new field for them, then they should be prepared to be criticized by the scientists already established in the field who know much more about it. This becomes especially true when someone makes many a hypothesis that turn out to be wrong with little basis in already established theory. Peer review and literature review are both parts of the foundation of science.

Quoting BigToe:
Keep, that looks like some Mighty cold snap for the SE next week. Hope it's the last for the season.

maybe it is
but one thing for sure its one of the last anyway
we got 47 days till spring pushes in
at the end of the run looks like warm air is getting stronger to fla. west
and each push of warm air should soon get stronger and stronger
until it pushes the cold air further and further north

maybe it is
but one thing for sure its one of the last anyway
we got 47 days till spring pushes in
at the end of the run looks like warm air is getting stronger to fla. west
and each push of warm air should soon get stronger and stronger
until it pushes the cold air further and further north
----------------------
Folks in Fl should get the smudge pots ready for next week!!

hi hydrus

I am so thankful for my warm weather- no sunshine, but at least it's not cold

Feb 3:
Unofficially, there are currently 52 stations that have broken their daily low record, 2 that are tying it, and 23 that are near it.
http://coolwx.com/record/
Link
Link

Lakeshore is still closed in one lane in Chicago. Look at the good side. All those cars parked there will not be getting in the way of the plows in the neighborhoods.

So Nea,
What are your long term climate predictions. Please give 2, 5, 10, 20 years and beyond. This way we can all look back and see if your a buffoon or lucky and please be specific since you are all knowing and everyone who doesn't think exactly like you are deniers or uneducated.

Quoting whtAmaroon:
So Nea,
What are your long term climate predictions. Please give 2, 5, 10, 20 years and beyond. This way we can all look back and see if your a buffoon or lucky and please be specific since you are all knowing and everyone who doesn't think exactly like you are deniers or uneducated.

Ummm--what? I'm really not "all-knowing"; I may just seem that way when compared to, say, JB. ;-) But, okay, my ironclad* climate prediction: in 10 years, the overall global climate will be warmer than now. In 20 years, the overall global climate will be both much warmer than now, and warmer than where it will be in 10 years.

There you go. Write it down, and look me up in 2031.

* - Should an extremely rare though possible large-scale event occur that would drive global temps downward for a large number of years, this prediction is invalid. Such events include all-out thermonuclear war, a high-speed collision between earth and a space object larger than 3 miles across, or a long-term supervolcano eruption.

GFS 06z starting to agree with the ECMWF for a Deep South Snow storm with snow possible all the way down to the coast.

Quoting kellnerp:
Lakeshore is still closed in one lane in Chicago. Look at the good side. All those cars parked there will not be getting in the way of the plows in the neighborhoods.

Thats a good angle,,

Looked just like in 67 save for the SUV's.

Quoting Drakoen:
GFS 06z starting to agree with the ECMWF for a Deep South Snow storm with snow possible all the way down to the coast.

Hey Drak,..

Keep um coming.


Geaux Sneaux.

Quoting Patrap:


Hey Drak,..

Keep um coming.


Geaux Sneaux.

A lot of time to watch this one but I like the setup that is being displayed by the models. Cold air coming down from Canada and a GOM low far enough south to allow the 850mb freezing line to really come south.

... Houston Winter Storm Warning in effect from noon today to noon CST Friday...

The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a
Winter Storm Warning for snow... sleet and freezing rain... which
is in effect from noon today to noon CST Friday. The Winter Storm
Watch is no longer in effect.

An upper level storm system approaching from the west will
combine with increasing moisture and cold temperatures in the
lower atmosphere to generate a mix of snow... sleet... and freezing
rain across southeast Texas this afternoon through Friday
morning. The precipitation is expected to begin during the early
afternoon near the coast... and spread area wide by evening. The
wintry mix will continue Thursday night then taper off late
morning Friday.

Good morning everyone. I see the people who have been up all night need to go to bed. Tempers are short. It is another beautiful CoC day in the Keys. I am looking at the forecast for next week and wonder how cold it will get down here. Maybe not too much. It is definitely beginning to feel like spring here:)

Quoting whtAmaroon:
So Nea,
What are your long term climate predictions. Please give 2, 5, 10, 20 years and beyond. This way we can all look back and see if your a buffoon or lucky and please be specific since you are all knowing and everyone who doesn't think exactly like you are deniers or uneducated.

since I agree with most of Nea's thoughts on AGW (though my political views are shot gun scatttered over any spectrum you'd care to bring up), I thought I'd chime in with my predictions:

Scenario 1: Stay the same as we are:

Climate: Arctic Ice melts in 3-5 years, accelerating Greenland Ice sheet melt. Current rates of melt accelerate from 1mm/year (just Greenland) to 20mm/year. Methane release from permafrost and near land hydrates is released. Temperatures continue to climb resulting in massive changes to eco systems worldwide: coral bleaching, loss of fisheries, drought and deluge both.

Politically: Oil imports stop or slow down enourmously as a result of rising need in heavy industry in third world countries, backlash terrorism against Western oil refineries and rising prices that put casual oil consumption beyond the reach of many. (Yeah odd that but that is actually how I see it) Deulge and dought kill billions around the world through lack of food, disease, and fighting. The electric revolution comes anyway but ineffectively now. American society becomes more segregated and polarized. Financial crisis as physical and sociopolitical risk levels drive investment away innovation. Climate refugee crisis overwhelms infrastucture.

Basically, the world returns to the dark ages feudalism (in terms of isolated communities) and any idea of American dream or Norman Rockwell is trashed. Though with nice tech gadgets.


Scenario 2:

Stay the same but AGW is fixed, Deus ex machina style, let's say 10 years from now. Not necessarily Deux but for example the Chinese put up a big space umbrella to save us. Point of scenario is we continue in this path and AGW isn't a big deal.

Cimate:

Artic ice melts (irrevopcable at this point, I think). Coral bleaching, loss of many fisheries. Some flooding or coastal areas, more frequent weather changes. Loss of many species, thousands/millions die due to loss of agriculture, food price upheavals, and unsanitary conditions. Still climate refugees but not as bad as scenario 1.

Politically:
US continues to import oil. Slowly worldwide green renewable revolution takes place. People become self sufficient and understand the value of self sufficiency economically. Eventually this revolution comes to the US as well. US will be a financial wreck for generations since our only product that sells internationally is technology and we will lose that leadership thanks to 1) the law of averages (1 billion Chinese on the average will invent more than 500 million Americans given same education and entropreneurial system) and 2) the continual squashing of American science and rationality by polticians who have discovered how to sell their ideals for the votes of the ignorant. [At some point, technology will remove the need for workers or work. At that point an asset independent country with no debt will be able to survive just fine. After that point, debt will spiral out of control.]

Scenario 3:

The world comes togather, admits there is AGW and agrees on stopping AGW togather. All the climate problems of scenario 2 continue however, but the world works togather to fix the problems. Debt will still be a problem but with the anti-science climate removed politically, the US will stand a fighting chance to regain our economic independence.


*Author's note. I realize this post makes me seem a semi-nutcase. But if you remove the 'everything is magically ok' solution, making projections somehow makes everyone sound like that, I hope (at least, I hope it isn't just me). I think it would be fun, perhaps on another blog, to debate futurism re global warming because I think it is one of hte most overlooked parts of what will happen because of AGW.