Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Globe's coral reefs take second worst beating on record during 2010

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 04:50 PM GMT del 07 Gennaio 2011

Record warm ocean temperatures across much of Earth's tropical oceans during the summer of 2010 created the second worst year globally for coral-killing bleaching episodes. The warm waters, fueled in part by the El Niño phenomena, caused the most coral bleaching since 1998, when 16 percent of the world's reefs were killed off. "Clearly, we are on track for this to be the second worst (bleaching) on record," NOAA coral expert Mark Eakin in an interview last month. "All we're waiting on now is the body count." The summer 2010 bleaching episodes were worst in Southeast Asia, where El Niño warming of the tropical ocean waters during the first half of the year was significant. In Indonesia's Aceh province, 80% of the bleached corals died, and Malaysia closed several popular dive sites after nearly all the coral were damaged by bleaching. However, in the Caribbean's Virgin Islands, coral bleaching was not as severe as experienced in 2005, according to National Park Service fisheries biologist Jeff Miller. I'll discuss the reasons for this in a future blog post. In other portions of the Caribbean, such as Venezuela and Panama, coral bleaching was worse than that experienced in 2005.

Figure 1. An example of coral bleaching that occurred during the record-strength 1997-1998 El Niño event. Image credit: Craig Quirolo, Reef Relief/Marine Photobank, in Climate, Carbon and Coral Reefs

What is coral bleaching?
Coral bleaching is a whitening of the corals that occurs when stresses such as high water temperatures, increased water acidity, or pollution disturbs the symbiotic relationship between the corals and the algae that live inside them. Bleaching episodes occur when ocean temperatures rise above 85 - 87°F (29.5 - 30.5°C.) Peak warming events took place in the western Indian Ocean and north-western Pacific in 1997/98, in the north of Australia and central Pacific during 2003/04, and in the Caribbean in 2005. About half of the reefs affected by bleaching in these episodes have recovered, and one recent study cautions that non-lethal bleaching episodes and subsequent recovery of corals is often under-reported.

Australia's Great Barrier Reef at risk
With summer now in full swing in the Southern Hemisphere, coral bleaching concern now shifts to Australia's Great Barrier Reef. Ocean temperatures along the reef are currently up to 1°C above average, due, in part, to the current moderate to strong La Niña event. NOAA's Coral Reef Watch has issued its highest level of coral bleaching alert for the northern 2/3 of the Great Barrier Reef, since the La Niña event is predicted to persist into at least April. Also of concern is the tremendous run-off occurring in the wake of the record flooding that has affected the neighboring Australian province of Queensland. While the floods have now peaked and the rivers of Queensland are now falling, the $5 billion disaster dumped a large amount of sediments, pollutants, fertilizers, and pesticides into the southern portion of the Great Barrier Reef, and this will act to increase the stress on the corals. However, the floods may end up indirectly benefiting some portions of the Great Barrier Reef. The cloud cover and strong winds that accompanied the flooding rain storms also acted to cool the waters along the reef. According to an analysis I did of the UK Met Office Hadley Centre global ocean temperature data, sea surface temperatures along the southern portion of the reef, between 15°S and 20°S latitude, were the warmest ever for September, 1.27°C above average. These waters cooled significantly, relative to average, during October and November, and were just 0.12°C warmer than average during November. Cooler waters will mean less potential for coral bleaching, though the pollution in the flood run-off water may end up killing some corals.

Figure 2. Forecast stress on coral due to warm ocean temperatures for Australia, Jan - Apr 2011. The northern 2/3 of the Great Barrier Reef are under the highest alert level for coral bleaching. Waters are cooler along the southern portion of the reef, due, in part, to the storms that have brought record flooding to portions of Queensland, Australia. Image credit: NOAA Coral Reef Watch.

Long term outlook for world's coral reefs: grim
The large amount of carbon dioxide humans have put into the air in recent decades has done more than just raise Earth's global temperature--it has also increased the acidity of the oceans, since carbon dioxide dissolves in sea water to form carbonic acid. Corals have trouble growing in acidic sea water, and the combined effects of increasing ocean temperatures, increasing acidity, pollution, and overfishing have reduced coral reefs globally by 19 percent since 1950. Another 35 percent could disappear in the next 40 years, even without the impact of climate change, according to a report released in October 2010 by the World Meteorological Organization and the Convention on Biological Diversity. Coral loss has been the most severe in Earth's hottest ocean, the Indian Ocean. Up to 90% of coral cover has been lost in the Maldives, Sri Lanka, Kenya and Tanzania and in the Seychelles. Global warming has heated up most of the tropical ocean surface waters by about 0.5°C (0.9°F) over the past 50 years, and the remarkable bleaching episodes of 1998 and 2010 both occurred when strong (natural) El Niño episodes heated up Pacific tropical waters to record levels. If the Earth continues to heat up this century as expected, coral bleaching episodes will grow more frequent and intense, particularly during strong El Niño episodes. The twin stresses of ocean acidification and increasing ocean temperatures will probably mean that by 2050, it will be difficult for any coral reefs to recover when subject to additional stresses posed by pollution or major storms, according to a talk presented by Stanford climate scientist Ken Caldeira at last month's American Geophysical Union (AGU) meeting.

Figure 3. Departure of sea surface temperature in the Australian region over the past one hundred years, year-by-year (red line), and decade-by-decade (grey bars.) The 2010 value is preliminary and does not include data for December 2010. If ocean temperatures and ocean acidity continue to rise in Australian waters at the same pace as has occurred over the past 100 years, the Great Barrier Reef will be in significant danger by 2050. Image credit: Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

Coral expert J.E.N. Veron, former chief scientist of the Australian Institute of Marine Science, had this to say in an excellent interview he did with Yale Environment 360 last year: "the science is clear: Unless we change the way we live, the Earth's coral reefs will be utterly destroyed within our children's lifetimes.

"You may well feel that dire predictions about anything almost always turn out to be exaggerations. You may think there may be something in it to worry about, but it won't be as bad as doomsayers like me are predicting. This view is understandable given that only a few decades ago I, myself, would have thought it ridiculous to imagine that reefs might have a limited lifespan on Earth as a consequence of human actions. It would have seemed preposterous that, for example, the Great Barrier Reef--the biggest structure ever made by life on Earth--could be mortally threatened by any present or foreseeable environmental change. Yet here I am today, humbled to have spent the most productive scientific years of my life around the rich wonders of the underwater world, and utterly convinced that they will not be there for our children's children to enjoy unless we drastically change our priorities and the way we live."

Reefs are the ocean's canaries and we must hear their call. This call is not just for themselves, for the other great ecosystems of the ocean stand behind reefs like a row of dominoes. If coral reefs fail, the rest will follow in rapid succession, and the Sixth Mass Extinction will be upon us--and will be of our making.

I might add that not only are reefs the ocean's canaries, they are incredibly valuable in their own right. According to the World Meteorological Organization, coral reefs provide economic services--jobs, food and tourism--estimated to be worth $30 billion per year. NOAA put this figure at twelve times higher, $375 billion each year. Corals cover just 0.2% of the world's oceans, but contain about 25% of all marine species.

Next post
I'll be back with a new post on Tuesday at the latest.

Check out wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt's post on the notable weather extremes of December 2010. It was truly an extreme month!

Jeff Masters

Coral Bleaching. (Dawnlisa)

Since the end of April the coral in the Andaman sea has started bleaching due to the increase in sea water temperature. If things don't cool down soon the coral may die. You can see the white patches in the photo that are mainly table coral and normally a dark colour.

A parrot fish at the coral reef (BoazR)

as seen from the underwater observatory

coral reef (js64)

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602. 1900hurricane 07:07 AM GMT del 09 Gennaio 2011
Recent Lampasas ob history: Member Since: Agosto 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10456

603. 1900hurricane 07:08 AM GMT del 09 Gennaio 2011
Quoting Grecojdw: In the 40s and snowing. That irritates me because I've seen heavy rain in my area and 34F before. How is it possible for snow at such warm temperatures? Not exactly sure, but I'm guessing it has something to do with the upper air environment, although the soundings have been no help trying to explain things recently. Member Since: Agosto 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10456

604. AtHomeInTX 07:21 AM GMT del 09 Gennaio 2011
We have some warnings too just to the east of Houston. This is from Channel 12 Beaumont... I think somebody misses hurricane season. ;) Have a good night/day take care and keep warm Significant storm system arrives in SE Texas tomorrow Posted: Jan 07, 2011 7:33 PM CST Updated: Jan 08, 2011 6:32 PM CST * Heavy rains and strong winds for tomorrow A powerful storm system is poised to move through the area tonight and tomorrow giving us guaranteed heavy rains for tomorrow. Its upper level low is entering western Texas tonight and will help produce a large shield of rain and storms that will move through southeast Texas. this upper level feature will help form a powerful low pressure system at the surface, almost like a tropical storm. We can expect almost tropical storm type weather tomorrow with strong gusty winds at 20-30 mph and heavy rains throughout the day. The rainfall should arrive in the wee hours of Sunday morning probably between 2-3 am and last for most of the day before tapering off by about late afternoon and early evening. Rainfall amounts on the conservative side could be 1-2 inches with isolated totals of 2-4 inches. In addition, the extreme northern lakes may get some wintry mix of sleet and/or snow. There are winter storm watches just north of the lakes for tonight and tomorrow. We also now have a coastal flood advisory from 6am to 6pm Sunday. Also a wind advisory has been posted for 6am- 6pm Sunday. For boaters, there is a Gale warning in addition to a small craft advisory with winds expected from 25-30 knots, with gusts over 35 knots. Seas will be rough, in the 3-5 feet range. Temps will range from 39 to 45 on Sunday. On Monday, the storms exits Texas, we'll see improving weather on this day with lows near 32 and a high of 52 under partly cloudy skies. A powerful Canadian front clears us on Monday night bringing very cold air. For Tuesday, temps will start off at 31 and reach 46 for a high under sunny skies. Member Since: Agosto 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3999

605. FLPandhandleJG 07:24 AM GMT del 09 Gennaio 2011
Ive been reading and looking at models and maps.. It looks like once it does hits GOM it will be close to the Gulf Coast states or a lil south and heads east.. By most models and maps, it looks like it will break up once heads into southeast GA or off the coast of GA.. But once it does I think the L will speed up and PJ will take it up Northeast or could be close atlantic coast into the Northeast.. I think North Carolina, N South Carolina and east Tennessee will probably get rain.. But E Tenn should get snow b4 the L Weakens and then the L heads NNE.. But at that time period i think the cold air will be behind this system once that L reach off coast of GA.. As for that, I believe right now w/o knowing where L will be at when it hits the GOM.. I'm going with the theory that L will just be offshore near gulf coast states and bring in more moisture so for the immediate coast will get damp and cold .. Farther north into the region could c ice then change over snow for good part of the south.. Alexandria, La.; Jackson, Miss.; Montgomery, Ala.; Atlanta, Ga.; and Columbia, S.C. as some cities but near around these area will see icy conditions and of course some decent size snows.. As you already know there numerous locations with winter storm watch and winter storm warnings. As you can see below.. This what I think right now, but right now I think it will change b/c of the L track.. But as for now, I can only agree for a short time projection map for Snow in the next 24 hours or less for now.. Here it is below: Like I said, Im sure it will change and hopefully I will be back on tomorrow to c what this system will do.. Member Since: Agosto 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1997

606. DontAnnoyMe 07:31 AM GMT del 09 Gennaio 2011
Quoting Grecojdw: In the 40s and snowing. That irritates me because I've seen heavy rain in my area and 34F before. How is it possible for snow at such warm temperatures? It is rare but possible for snow to hit the ground when the ground temp is in the low 40s. It happens because that layer of air in the 40s is very shallow. Member Since: Settembre 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690

607. scott39 07:32 AM GMT del 09 Gennaio 2011
I wonder why upper NW Mobile County is not under a winter storm watch? Member Since: Giugno 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6221

608. 1900hurricane 07:33 AM GMT del 09 Gennaio 2011
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0010 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0128 AM CST SUN JAN 09 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...S TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 090728Z - 090930Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS THEY MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS DEEP S TX. A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE OF SEVERE MAY BE TOO ISOLATED FOR A WATCH. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST S OF LRD TO CRP. TO THE N OF THIS BOUNDARY...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE 50S F WHICH IS STABLE FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. TO THE FRONT...DEWPOINTS RISE TO THE MID 60S F...WHICH RESULTS IN MODERATE INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG USING MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS. A LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES EWD. A DEEPENING LOW SHOULD TRAVEL EWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT...WHERE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED. AREAS OF SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WERE NOTED AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS...INDICATIVE OF LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AS THE PRIMARY LINE OF STORMS ENCOUNTERS THIS ZONE OF LIFT...IT WILL ALSO BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE GREATER INSTABILITY FEEDING FROM THE SOUTH...RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING. SURFACE WIND GUST POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST RIGHT ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY S OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE THE SURFACE AIR MASS IS LESS DENSE AND MORE UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...GIVEN SUCH STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR PROFILES...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT EVEN N OF THE FRONT AS THE SURFACE AIR MASS IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND MAY BE SHALLOW. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING AS THE STORMS APPROACH THE CRP AREA. ..JEWELL.. 01/09/2011 ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO... LAT...LON 28589886 28809729 28739652 28419620 28059653 27599702 27289719 27129725 27019788 26919873 26929941 27229954 27629925 28109907 28589886 Member Since: Agosto 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10456

609. FLPandhandleJG 07:34 AM GMT del 09 Gennaio 2011
Quoting DontAnnoyMe: It is rare but possible for snow to hit the ground when the ground temp is in the low 40s. It happens because that layer of air in the 40s is very shallow. Probably most likely.. Member Since: Agosto 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1997

610. 1900hurricane 07:37 AM GMT del 09 Gennaio 2011
Nice looking storm system! Member Since: Agosto 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10456

611. FLPandhandleJG 07:37 AM GMT del 09 Gennaio 2011
Quoting scott39: I wonder why upper NW Mobile County is not under a winter storm watch? I'm not sure but right now they are playing it safe.. until if they need to change it or not.. B/c they expect the immediate coast will be a lil warmer in the near 40's.. :( With some heavy rain or so.. that rain will be freaking cold tho.. But depends how far south is the L.. More south it is the better chance for us but close to us not so much of a chance.. Member Since: Agosto 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1997

612. DontAnnoyMe 07:38 AM GMT del 09 Gennaio 2011
Quoting FLPandhandleJG: Probably most likely.. Hope you're right about NC getting rain, right now the forecast is for the typical mixed precip (Central NC) but ice below .25". Member Since: Settembre 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690

613. 1900hurricane 07:39 AM GMT del 09 Gennaio 2011
Some pretty vicious looking storms are starting to roll their way into the warm sector: Member Since: Agosto 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10456

614. 1900hurricane 07:40 AM GMT del 09 Gennaio 2011
Wider view of the same storms: Member Since: Agosto 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10456

615. FLPandhandleJG 07:40 AM GMT del 09 Gennaio 2011
Quoting 1900hurricane: Nice looking storm system! I would say so! wow that storm is packing and getting stronger.. hmm.. Just want to know where that L will come off.. and how far from the northern gulf coast it will be.. I guess I will head to sleep and wake up couple hours later.. or i can stay up late.. lol Member Since: Agosto 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1997

616. KoritheMan 07:41 AM GMT del 09 Gennaio 2011
Quoting FLPandhandleJG: I would say so! wow that storm is packing and getting stronger.. hmm.. Just want to know where that L will come off.. and how far from the northern gulf coast it will be.. I guess I will head to sleep and wake up couple hours later.. or i can stay up late.. lol Dude, it never snows in our locales. Get real. :P Member Since: Marzo 7, 2007 Posts: 421 Comments: 15643

617. DontAnnoyMe 07:44 AM GMT del 09 Gennaio 2011
Member Since: Settembre 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690

618. FLPandhandleJG 07:44 AM GMT del 09 Gennaio 2011
Quoting DontAnnoyMe: Hope you're right about NC getting rain, right now the forecast is for the typical mixed precip (Central NC) but ice below .25". But thats from looking at it is from models and maps and all.. But it could change but I still think L will weaken once hits southern GA or off the coast.. But I need a confirm track and all, we should pin point whats up.. I think there would be this much moisture right now so u could get sum light snow then switch over rain.. Just depends with the track, timing with L and the cold air mass.. But hope everyone be safe.. Member Since: Agosto 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1997

619. FLPandhandleJG 07:46 AM GMT del 09 Gennaio 2011
Quoting KoritheMan: Dude, it never snows in our locales. Get real. :P I didnt say it will!!! but I still like to track these system and be sure.. I said it is unlikely along the immediate coast.. lol and yes it is very rare if it did.. But still going to be a mess for the south! Member Since: Agosto 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1997

620. AtHomeInTX 07:49 AM GMT del 09 Gennaio 2011
OK. One more thing. :) URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 1038 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT SUNDAY... .A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE RIO GRAND VALLEY LATE TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS COASTAL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA LATE SUNDAY. STRONG WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY. Member Since: Agosto 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3999

621. FLPandhandleJG 07:49 AM GMT del 09 Gennaio 2011
Quoting DontAnnoyMe: Well from that and if that stays true. Most likely it will.. I c cold rain for the Immediate Gulf Coast and could be heavy at times.. but will be nasty for a lot of folks in the south and some of the east.. Hopefully no1 has to drive in this mess.. Member Since: Agosto 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1997

622. FLPandhandleJG 07:58 AM GMT del 09 Gennaio 2011
Member Since: Agosto 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1997

623. FLPandhandleJG 08:01 AM GMT del 09 Gennaio 2011
Member Since: Agosto 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1997

624. 1900hurricane 08:16 AM GMT del 09 Gennaio 2011
WWUS40 KWNS 090809 WWP4 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WS 0004 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0209 AM CST SUN JAN 09 2011 WS 0004 PROBABILITY TABLE: PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 20% PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 05% PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 30% PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 20% PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : <05% PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : <05% PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 50% && ATTRIBUTE TABLE: MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 1.0 MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60 MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500 MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 25040 PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO && FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU4. $$ Member Since: Agosto 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10456

625. 1900hurricane 08:25 AM GMT del 09 Gennaio 2011
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING TXC131-249-297-311-090900- /O.NEW.KCRP.SV.W.0001.110109T0816Z-110109T0900Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 216 AM CST SUN JAN 9 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHERN DUVAL COUNTY IN SOUTH TEXAS NORTHERN JIM WELLS COUNTY IN SOUTH TEXAS LIVE OAK COUNTY IN SOUTH TEXAS SOUTHERN MCMULLEN COUNTY IN SOUTH TEXAS * UNTIL 300 AM CST * AT 214 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTH OF TILDEN TO LOMA ALTA TO 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FREER...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTH OF TILDEN TO 13 MILES NORTH OF FREER TO 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FREER...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... SIMMONS... ROSITA... RANCHO DE LA PARITA... OAKVILLE... TECALOTE... LAGARTO... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER... PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM CST SUNDAY MORNING FOR CENTRAL TEXAS. && LAT...LON 2774 9881 2793 9881 2801 9880 2806 9878 2845 9879 2846 9878 2846 9797 2819 9782 2816 9782 2811 9790 2806 9790 2803 9785 2775 9807 TIME...MOT...LOC 0816Z 269DEG 41KT 2835 9853 2807 9853 2782 9872 $$ JR Member Since: Agosto 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10456

626. 1900hurricane 08:35 AM GMT del 09 Gennaio 2011
I want that cold pocket to cross directly over my head like it did in December 2008. Member Since: Agosto 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10456

627. 1900hurricane 08:52 AM GMT del 09 Gennaio 2011
So far, it seems that for Texas anyway, the best verifying model is the 12Z NAM, which was also the coldest of the models. Member Since: Agosto 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10456

628. PensacolaDoug 08:53 AM GMT del 09 Gennaio 2011
Quoting presslord: this may well have been the inevitable result of our vitriolic political atmosphere...from both sides...and to which I have shamefully contributed...it may well be that the blood is on all our hands... BS Press. The guy is a freakin nut. Period. Member Since: Luglio 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4831

629. 1900hurricane 08:56 AM GMT del 09 Gennaio 2011
TORNADO WARNING TXC025-297-090915- /O.NEW.KCRP.TO.W.0001.110109T0850Z-110109T0915Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 250 AM CST SUN JAN 9 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL BEE COUNTY IN SOUTH TEXAS... CENTRAL LIVE OAK COUNTY IN SOUTH TEXAS... * UNTIL 315 AM CST * AT 247 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR GEORGE WEST...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... RIVER CREEK ACRES... DINERO... BEEVILLE... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM CST SUNDAY MORNING FOR CENTRAL TEXAS. && LAT...LON 2847 9759 2825 9754 2816 9817 2833 9821 TIME...MOT...LOC 0850Z 258DEG 43KT 2826 9809 $$ JR Member Since: Agosto 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10456

630. 1900hurricane 09:25 AM GMT del 09 Gennaio 2011
I'm liking some of these new models! Member Since: Agosto 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10456

631. IKE 11:19 AM GMT del 09 Gennaio 2011
I'm glad I live in Florida.....just to my north by around 100 miles.... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 509 AM CST SUN JAN 9 2011 ...SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA... A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND MONDAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER A VERY COLD AIR MASS. AS A RESULT...SNOW... FREEZING RAIN...AND SLEET ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. ALZ030>050-092200- /O.CAN.KBMX.WS.W.0001.110109T1800Z-110111T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KBMX.IS.W.0001.110110T0000Z-110111T0000Z/ SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-CHAMBERS- MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-BULLOCK- LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LIVINGSTON...EUTAW...GREENSBORO... MOUNDVILLE...MARION...CENTREVILLE...CLANTON...ROCKFORD... ALEXANDER CITY...DADEVILLE...VALLEY...LANETT...LAFAYETTE... DEMOPOLIS...LINDEN...SELMA...PRATTVILLE...FORT DEPOSIT... HAYNEVILLE...WETUMPKA...TALLASSEE...MONTGOMERY...TUSKEGEE... UNION SPRINGS...AUBURN...OPELIKA...PHENIX CITY...TROY...EUFAULA 509 AM CST SUN JAN 9 2011 ...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST MONDAY... ...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED AN ICE STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. ACCUMULATING ICE IS LIKELY STARTING LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM LIVINGSTON TO TROY...SPREADING NORTHWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 BY MONDAY MORNING. WHILE THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START OUT AS SNOW IN MOST AREAS...IT WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM ONE QUARTER TO NEARLY ONE HALF INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING. ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ESPECIALLY ICE WILL LIKELY DAMAGE TREES AND POWER LINES. EAST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS STORM SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... AN ICE STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. COMMERCE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SNAPPED POWER LINES AND FALLING TREE BRANCHES THAT ADD TO THE DANGER. $$ Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

632. IKE 12:09 PM GMT del 09 Gennaio 2011
Houston, Texas (Airport) Updated: 15 min 33 sec ago 53 %uFFFDF Overcast Humidity: 64% Dew Point: 41 %uFFFDF Wind: 23 mph from the ENE Wind Gust: 34 mph Pressure: 29.69 in (Falling) Visibility: 9.0 miles UV: 0 out of 16 Pollen: 5.70 out of 12 Pollen Forecast new! Clouds: Scattered Clouds 3500 ft Overcast 8500 ft (Above Ground Level) Elevation: 46 ft ............................................... Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

633. Neapolitan 12:47 PM GMT del 09 Gennaio 2011
Current snow chances for selected southern locations (from Intellicast) White Springs, FL: 18% Tallahassee, FL: 13% Lake City, FL: 10% Jacksonville, FL: 5% Pensacola, FL: 4% Gainesville, FL: 2% Dalton, GA: 94% Atlanta, GA: 93% Macon, GA: 81% Valdosta, GA: 25% Birmingham, AL: 83% Montgomery, AL: 61% Mobile, AL: 5% Jackson, MS: 81% Hattiesburg, MS: 35% Biloxi, MS: 2% Shreveport, LA: 96% Alexandria, LA: 43% Lake Charles, LA: 7% New Orleans, LA: 2% Dallas, TX: 100% College Station, TX: 63% Houston, TX: 1% Member Since: novembre 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11308

634. ShenValleyFlyFish 12:57 PM GMT del 09 Gennaio 2011
Quoting PensacolaDoug: BS Press. The guy is a freakin nut. Period. Sure he's a nut but nuts are the canaries in the mine and we've dug to a new depth. Add easy guns and you've got a damn dangerous atmosphere. Saw on ABC that FBI has list of multiple person shootings post VPI pushing 200. But we can't talk about that. It's the 9 yr old's fault they didn't bring their own gun. Member Since: Settembre 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4684

635. IKE 01:03 PM GMT del 09 Gennaio 2011
If I was a House of Represenative member I think I would request protection. Too many nutjobs in this country. You're almost better off not being known and even then innocent victims are killed. Better off staying home:) .............................................. 36.3 outside my window...clouds moving in. Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

636. Neapolitan 01:18 PM GMT del 09 Gennaio 2011
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish: Sure he's a nut but nuts are the canaries in the mine and we've dug to a new depth. Add easy guns and you've got a damn dangerous atmosphere. Saw on ABC that FBI has list of multiple person shootings post VPI pushing 200. But we can't talk about that. It's the 9 yr old's fault they didn't bring their own gun. Yeah, there was someone on here yesterday saying something close to that. As with last month's school board shooting in Florida, I've never understood--and likely never will--the "logic" that some use when they claim the problem isn't that there were guns at a normal, quiet event, but that there weren't enough of them. Member Since: novembre 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11308

637. Snowlover123 01:20 PM GMT del 09 Gennaio 2011
Good Morning everyone! Wow, haven't visited this place in quite some time... Anyways, I'm all pumped for Tuesday-Wednesday's storm! Member Since: Aprile 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2594

638. tramp96 01:24 PM GMT del 09 Gennaio 2011
Quoting Neapolitan: Yeah, there was someone on here yesterday saying something close to that. As with last month's school board shooting in Florida, I've never understood--and likely never will--the "logic" that some use when they claim the problem isn't that there were guns at a normal, quiet event, but that there weren't enough of them. So my guess is that you would have a ban on guns? Member Since: Agosto 15, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 329

639. tramp96 01:25 PM GMT del 09 Gennaio 2011
Quoting Snowlover123: Good Morning everyone! Wow, haven't visited this place in quite some time... Anyways, I'm all pumped for Tuesday-Wednesday's storm! Good Morning Member Since: Agosto 15, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 329

641. Snowlover123 01:26 PM GMT del 09 Gennaio 2011
HPC is giving a pretty good chance of 4" of snow in NJ, and the NE. Source Member Since: Aprile 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2594

642. PensacolaDoug 01:32 PM GMT del 09 Gennaio 2011
Quoting Neapolitan: Yeah, there was someone on here yesterday saying something close to that. As with last month's school board shooting in Florida, I've never understood--and likely never will--the "logic" that some use when they claim the problem isn't that there were guns at a normal, quiet event, but that there weren't enough of them. When seconds count, cops are just minutes away. Member Since: Luglio 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4831

643. IKE 01:32 PM GMT del 09 Gennaio 2011
Whether you are anti-guns or not...they're not going to do away with them. You can argue until the cows come home. Ditto GW arguments:( Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

644. PensacolaDoug 01:33 PM GMT del 09 Gennaio 2011
Mornin Ike. Gonna miss us again, it's lookin like. Member Since: Luglio 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4831

645. Neapolitan 01:33 PM GMT del 09 Gennaio 2011
Quoting tramp96: So my guess is that you would have a ban on guns? No, not at all. I would, however, have a ban on sales of guns and ammo to people who were suspended from college for reasons of mental health; for people who were rejected as unfit for service by the military; for people who post rambling, schizophrenic rants online. I'm really not comfortable with the Jared Lee Loughners and Dylan Klebolds and Eric Harrises of the world walking around packing heat. Member Since: novembre 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11308

646. Snowlover123 01:35 PM GMT del 09 Gennaio 2011
Quoting IKE: Whether you are anti-guns or not...they're not going to do away with them. You can argue until the cows come home. Ditto GW arguments:( IMO, Dr. Masters should really have posted this on the climate change blog. Member Since: Aprile 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2594

647. IKE 01:35 PM GMT del 09 Gennaio 2011
Quoting PensacolaDoug: Mornin Ike. Gonna miss us again, it's lookin like. It's gonna be close...but...yeah...we'll miss out. Ice storms are no fun though. I'll take the rain! Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

648. IKE 01:39 PM GMT del 09 Gennaio 2011
Quoting Snowlover123: IMO, Dr. Masters should really have posted this on the climate change blog. I just scroll past it all. At least no one's been shot yet over siding one way or the other on GW. As far as I know. And I'm being serious. Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

650. IKE 01:47 PM GMT del 09 Gennaio 2011
Buoy 42035...22NM east of Galveston,Texas.... Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 90 deg true ) Wind Speed (WSPD): 29.1 kts Wind Gust (GST): 36.9 kts Wave Height (WVHT): 7.5 ft Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 6 sec Average Period (APD): 5.0 sec Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ESE ( 114 deg true ) Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.66 in Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.10 in ( Falling Rapidly ) Air Temperature (ATMP): 56.5 °F Water Temperature (WTMP): 56.5 °F Dew Point (DEWP): 53.4 °F Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

651. ChillinInTheKeys 01:48 PM GMT del 09 Gennaio 2011
Left my warm Florida Keys home yesterday to enjoy some nice winter weather in North Georgia for a change. Stopped at Ingles(grocery) around 10 last night. Slim pickin's, But we're set. Bring it on!!! Statement as of 4:57 AM EST on January 09, 2011 ... Winter Storm Warning in effect from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Monday for north and most of central Georgia... The National Weather Service in Peachtree City has issued a Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow and ice... which is in effect from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Monday. The Winter Storm Watch is no longer in effect. The warning includes an area generally north and along a line from Columbus to Macon to Augusta. Precipitation will generally start out Sunday night as snow across north Georgia and a mix of rain and sleet across central Georgia... generally south of a line from LaGrange to Milledgeville. South of this line it will transition to freezing rain and sleet after midnight. This transition line will slowly move northward during the day on Monday with snow and sleet expected across the north Georgia mountains and freezing rain and sleet expected to continue south of a line from Cedartown to Gainesville. Some light accumulations may continue Monday night and precipitation should end by Tuesday morning... except for light snow showers across the north Georgia mountains and lingering drizzle across the eastern portions of the state. Due to the change in precipitation type from snow to freezing rain and sleet during the event... this may help to limit our snow accumulation. Snowfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected north of a line from Columbus to Macon to Augusta... 3 to 5 inches from LaGrange to Madison and northward and 5 to 7 inches north of a line from Rome to Gainesville. Isolated higher amounts may be possible in the mountains. Ice accumulation of one tenth to one quarter of an inch will be possible with the higher amounts expected from the Atlanta Metro area southward. Member Since: Agosto 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 462

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