Little change to 99L, which remains very close to tropical depression status
A tropical disturbance (Invest 99L) centered 160 miles southwest of the Cayman Islands is moving south to southeast at 5 - 10 mph. A Hurricane Hunter flight arrived in the storm at about 11am this morning, and found a closed circulation with top winds at flight level (700 feet) of 33 mph. A closed circulation and 30 mph surface winds are necessary conditions for a tropical depression to exist, but the storm must also have a great deal of heavy thunderstorm activity near the center that persists for many hours. In the judgment of NHC, 99L does not qualify as a tropical depression in that regard. The storm is bringing heavy rain to the Cayman Islands; 4.14" inches has fallen over the past 2 1/2 days at Savannah on Grand Cayman Island. Heavy rains have diminished over the Cayman Islands, but have spread to western Jamaica and west-central Cuba this afternoon. Recent satellite imagery shows that the surface circulation center is exposed to view, and 99L has a relatively meager amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. The center is more than 80 miles west of the heaviest thunderstorm activity, and it is likely that 99L's center will relocate itself to the east to be more underneath the heaviest thunderstorms. Wind shear is marginal for development, 15 - 20 knots, due to the clockwise flow of air around an upper-level high pressure system near the coast of Honduras. The high is bringing strong upper-level winds out of the southwest to 99L. Water vapor satellite loops show considerable dry air to the west and north of 99L, and the strong southwesterly winds over the storm are bringing some of this dry into into the core of the storm, keeping all the heavy thunderstorm development confined to the east side of the center. The waters beneath 99L are very warm, 29°C, but 99L will not be able to take advantage of these warm waters until the shear relaxes. A new hurricane hunter aircraft will be in the storm tonight near 8pm EDT.
Forecast for 99L
The current southward movement of 99L is carrying the storm into a region of lower wind shear, and we should see 99L accumulate more heavy thunderstorm activity near its center beginning tonight. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear over the Western Caribbean will decline below 15 knots Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon, which should allow the storm to become a tropical depression by Thursday. Steering currents will be weak today through Friday in the Western Caribbean, making it difficult to predict where 99L may go. The models are split into two camps, with the GFDL and HWRF models taking 99L to the west-northwest over the western tip of Cuba or the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday as a hurricane. The rest of the models take 99L to the south over Honduras on Sunday, and keep the storm below hurricane strength. Given 99L's current southward motion and the possibility that the center will relocate farther to the east later today, this makes a track to the southwest towards Honduras more likely, I predict. NHC is giving 99L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I expect this will become Tropical Storm Richard by Friday.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Invest 99L.
Death toll from Super Typhoon Megi in the Philippines remarkably low
The power is still out and communications are down over the majority of the northern portion of the Philippines' Luzon Island blasted by Typhoon Megi yesterday, so the full extent of the destruction wrought by the great storm is still unclear. However, the death toll from the great storm stands at only 19, reflecting the superior effort Philippines officials made to evacuate low-lying areas and get people out of locations prone to flash flooding and mudslides. Previous major typhoons to strike the Philippines have nearly always killed hundreds, and sometime thousands, so the preparation and evacuation efforts for Megi likely saved hundreds of lives. Megi hit Luzon on Monday morning at 3:30 UTC as a Category 5 super typhoon with sustained winds of 165 mph and a central pressure of 914 mb. Severe damage was done to Isabela Province in northern Luzon, and media reports indicate that 200,000 people are homeless.
Figure 2. Visible MODIS satellite image of Megi from NASA's Aqua satellite taken at 1:30am EDT October 20, 2010. At the time, Megi was a Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Passage over Luzon Island destroyed Megi's eyewall and inner core region, and the storm compensated by expanding and intensifying the portions of its circulation that were over water. Now that its center is back over water in the South China Sea, Megi has re-developed its inner core and has intensified into a formidable Category 3 typhoon with 125 mph winds. Megi has been able to maintain its larger size, and is now a much larger typhoon than when it hit the Philippines. This is similar to what happened to Hurricane Ike in 2008 when it passed over Cuba, and helped give Ike a very destructive storm surge when it came ashore over Texas. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots over Megi, and the waters of the South China Sea have a very high total heat content to great depth, so Megi should be able to remain a very dangerous major typhoon through Friday. The larger size of Megi means that it will be able to deliver a significant storm surge in excess of ten feet to the coast of China of Friday or Saturday, when the storm is expected to make landfall north of Hong Kong. As the storm approaches the coast on Friday, wind shear is expected to rise to the moderate or high range, and the total heat content of the ocean will drop significantly, so some weakening is to be expected. Still, Megi will probably hit China as a major Category 3 typhoon, or as a strong Category 2, bringing a significant storm surge, high winds, and widespread torrential rains that will likely make this a multi-billion dollar disaster for China. The outer rain bands of Megi are already affecting the coast of China north of Hong Kong, as seen on Hong Kong radar and Taiwan radar.
Figure 3. Still frame of damage to NE Luzon Island from a video posted to YouTube by storm chaser James Reynolds of typhoonfury.com.
Next update
I'll have an update Thursday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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LOL, yep. Sheared systems can look strong if you ID the center in the wrong spot. I remember that on here with Bonnie earlier this year.
Very effective if used correctly.
Best wishes, lol.
But only the HWRF is suggesting it moving into Florida, the rest suggest it going further west than that into th GOM, or even WSW across Central America and ending up in the E-Pac.
sorry, typo, its suppose to be 5 am not 5 pm
I agree...I just thought he was seeing something I wasn't since I am not a Meterologist :)
Tropical Update: Invest 99L Likely to become Richard; Shary Possible; Western Pacific Firing Up, With Video!
Link
A storm could develop in the SE caribbean Sea then heads N then NNE crossing DR/PR... at least according to the GFS and 300Hrs away lol
Might get busy in here soon, based on possible USA landfall.
(snicker)
... plus 1
As admin intended, the ! is not meant to report trolls. It is meant to report offensive content, spam, or copyright violation. It worked here.
Thanks for the link. Do you know of any other link to a radar of the Cayman Islands?
Tropical Update: Invest 99L Likely to become Richard; Shary Possible; Western Pacific Firing Up, With Video!
Oh, OK.
Posted on Thu, 10/14/2010 - 19:39 in Headline News
(CNS): Proposals for a possible wind farm in East End have been stopped in its tracks as a result of the government’s plans to erect a Doppler radar in the same area. Hopes of opening up Cayman’s first an alternative energy source with a 200ft wind tower in the High Rock area have been dashed in favour of the radar project which government says will fill an important weather tracking black hole. The government said in a statement on Thursday evening that despite the need to find alternative energy sources the Ministry of Works said it was supporting the radar as a priority and could risk losing the funding if it didn't
This is the closest Radar we have till next year whaen one is "supposed" to be operational here...Island Time though not holding my breath lol
E to ENE actually
New center now under the deep convection. Winds at buoy 42057 switched to WNW about an hour ago and now NW indicating the low center is no longer to the West of that buoy which is located at 16.8 N and 81.5 W
Wind Direction (WDIR): NW ( 310 deg true ) Wind Speed (WSPD): 9.7 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 13.6 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 3.0 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 5 sec
Average Period (APD): 4.5 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.73 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.00 in ( Steady )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.0 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.2 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 77.2 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 88.0 °F
In fact my station already bouncing between ENE and NE now
Hey Kman looks like COC could be trying to organise around 81W17.5N what do you think?
If you read back through the blog from about 2 hours ago I posted about the new center shifting East. Those coordinates are close
Thats my thinking as well.
Climatologically 99L is in a very favorable area for development this time of the year, add record TCHP, high SST's and a building anticyclone over 99L and we have trouble. Personally I believe we will have Hurricane richard within the next couple of days.
It becomes a very dangerous situation when a system like this meanders in the NW carribean, it could explode into a major hurricane within a couple of hours. This first focus should be on our friends in the yucatan, and caymans as this is already a factor in your weather and it could get very bad over the next 5 days. We will then shift our focus to long term. It is still way to early to speculate on track and strength however the long term track is split up into 2 scenarios
GFS, NOGAPS, and BAM's that drift this SW into Central america
GFDL, HWRF, CMC, ECMWF which brings this eventually northward towards GOM.
We should not be concerned until this develops, however, what the HWRF and GFDL are showing are both scary scenarios. IMO this might be our last major threat to the CONUS this year as a strong easterly flow has already setup over GOM.
Be prepared as next week things could get ugly
P.S. that GFDL run made me think of Wilma :(
well that is closer to 12Z GFDL. I wonder what 18Z GFDL will look like
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED OCT 20 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTH OF GRAND CAYMAN HAVE CHANGED LITTLE
IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME
TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MEANDERS SLOWLY. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
NNNN
If they did cancel they are probably rethinking that now LOL
Kinda contradicting to raise the odds and say 'has changed little in organization'
Think they noticed that the COC might be relocating.
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