September 2010: 4th or 8th warmest on record for the globe
September 2010 was the globe's eighth warmest September on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated September 2010 the fourth warmest September on record. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - September, as the warmest such period on record. September 2010 global ocean temperatures were the ninth warmest on record, and land temperatures were also the ninth warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the warmest on record, according to both Remote Sensing Systems data and University of Alabama Huntsville data. The year-to-date period January-September is the 2nd warmest such period in the satellite data, behind 1998.
For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from September 2010.
Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for September 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).
Fourteenth warmest September on record for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., it was the 14th warmest September in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The year-to-date period, January to September, was the 24th warmest such period on record. Ten states had a top-ten warmest September on record--Rhode Island, Maine, New Hampshire, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Florida, Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona. No states recorded a top-ten coldest September.
U.S. precipitation near average
For the contiguous U.S., September 2010 ranked near average. However, there were large regional variations in precipitation. Wyoming had its driest September in the 116-year record, and three other states had top-ten driest Septembers--Louisiana, Mississippi, and Florida. Minnesota had its wettest September on record, and five other states had a top-ten wettest September--North Dakota, South Dakota, Washington, Wisconsin, and Missouri.
La Niña intensifies to the "strong" category
The equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean is now experiencing strong La Niña conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", dropped to 1.8°C below average during the first two weeks of October, according to NOAA. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology put this number at 1.53°C below average (as of October 10.) Moderate La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number is 1.0°C - 1.5°C below average. Temperatures colder than 1.5°C below average qualify as strong La Niña conditions. NOAA is maintaining its La Niña advisory, and expects La Niña conditions to last through the coming winter into spring.
Both El Niño and La Niña events have major impacts on regional and global weather patterns. For the remainder of October, we can expect La Niña to bring cloudier and wetter than average conditions to the Caribbean, but weather patterns over North America should not see much impact. La Niña typically causes warm, dry winters over the southern portion of the U.S., with cooler and wetter than average conditions over the Pacific Northwest. The Ohio and Mississippi Valleys states typically have wetter winters than usual.
September 2010 Arctic sea ice extent 3rd lowest on record
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in September 2010 was the third lowest in the 31-year satellite record behind 2007 and 2008, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Ice volume in September was the lowest on record, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center. The reported volume of 1,000 cubic miles (4,000 cubic kilometers) was 70 percent below the 1979 - 2009 September average of 3,200 cubic miles (13,400 cubic kilometers). Sea ice volume accounts for sea ice extent as well as the thickness of ice beneath the ocean's surface. The Northwest Passage through the normally ice-choked waters of Canada, as well as the Northeast Passage along the coast of northern Russia, remained open for ice-free navigation for most of September, but are now frozen shut again. This is the third consecutive year--and third time in recorded history--that both passages have melted open. Mariners have been attempting to sail these passages since 1497, and 2005 was the first year either of these passages reported ice-free conditions; 2008 was the first year both passages melted free. The 2010 Arctic melt season allowed for two sailing expeditions--one Russian and one Norwegian--to successfully navigate both the Northeast Passage and the Northwest Passage in a single season, the first time this feat has occurred in modern history.
New Caribbean disturbance
Heavy thunderstorm activity is currently limited over the southern Caribbean waters just north of Panama, but the latest 2am EDT (6Z) NOGAPS and GFS model runs continue to predict the formation of a tropical depression in the region 3 - 5 days from now. The NOGAPS model predicts that the storm will move northwest towards the Cayman Islands, while the GFS model takes the storm west-northwest over Nicaragua and Honduras. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. Northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras can expect a period of very heavy rains from the disturbance Saturday night through Tuesday.
Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Megi at 3:30am EDT 10/16/10. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.
Typhoon Megi
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Megi has attained Category 3 strength, and is predicted to intensify into a 150 mph supertyphoon that will strike the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Monday morning. If this forecast verifies, Megi would be the strongest tropical cyclone to strike land globally in 2010. The globe has had an unusually low number of landfalling major hurricanes this year. Only one Category 4 or stronger storm has hit land--Tropical Cyclone Tomas, which hit Fiji on March 15 as a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Tomas killed 3 people and did $45 million in damage to Fiji, and was the strongest storm to hit Fiji since Cyclone Bebe in 1972. The only other major tropical cyclones in 2010 to make landfall were Tropical Cyclone Oli, which passed through French Polynesia on February 5 as a Category 3 storm; Tropical Cyclone Rene, which hit Tonga in the South Pacific as a Category 3 storm on February 15; Typhoon Fanapi, which hit Taiwan on September 19 as a Category 3 storm; and Hurricane Karl, which hit Mexico near Veracruz on September 17 as a Category 3 hurricane.
Next update
I'll have an update Sunday or Monday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I'll take Beef with Broccoli.
Um, no, cuz Rita never had 200 mph surface winds and 220 mph flight level. Not sure why the advisory intensity was kept at 180 mph.
Super Typhoon Megi 10/17/10
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
1130 AM EDT SUN OCT 17 2010
.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD LOW PRES CIRCULATION EXTENDS FROM THE FAR
TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC E-NE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW CARIBBEAN
TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE NW THROUGH WED. AN EMBEDDED WEAK
LOW CENTER NEAR 12N79W WILL DRIFT NW WITHIN THE LARGER
CIRCULATION AND REACH THE COAST OF NICARAGUA BY LATE TUE...WHERE
IT MAY LINGER FOR A FEW DAYS. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION. A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE SW N ATLC WILL SINK S AND INTO FAR N PORTIONS OF TROPICAL N
ATLC LATE MON AND BECOME STATIONARY BEFORE DISSIPATING BY WED.
..........................................
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1030 AM CDT SUN OCT 17 2010
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...EXTENDING FROM
THE NORTHERN GULF SW TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE.
been a long time from the last i saw this
17/1430 UTC 17.9N 124.6E T7.5/7.5 MEGI -- West Pacific
Steering Layer: 200-700 hPa
895 hPa from the JMA!
Big LOL.
Either way though, this is one beast of a storm.
Best of luck to those in the Philippines.
Nice update, Teddy. Clear, concise, short and to the point. Hate those long technical blogs with fronts, troughs, baroclinic highs, etc. More blogs should look like that.
AOI
TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Looks like the models are getting a better handle on 99L.
Click on the image for original sized image so you can see all the lovely -10s on that map around Megi.
I think there's been a couple since: Gay in '92 and Angela in '95. Zeb in '98, perhaps. Pressure readings in the Pacific always seem to be debatable.
Not for a while, though.
Go look at post #576 and stop stealing my lines. It takes me hours to come up with them.:P
Well, it's because your old, that's why it takes you forever.
thats is NOT a wind shear map that msp shows you what wind shear has been for the last 24 too 48hrs or so
So, it's not a wind shear map, but rather just a map that shows wind shear? Got it. Thanks for clearing that up! ;-)
"MAX FL WIND 170 KT NE QUAD 11:12:20Z
MAX FL TEMP 19 C 250 / 4 NM FROM FL CNTR
FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN EYEWALL"
Thanks!
Grothar "Go look at post #576 and stop stealing my lines. It takes me hours to come up with them. :P"
caneswatch "Well, it's because you're old..."
ahhh... to be young and naive. The proper descriptive is aged to perfection.
You have WU-Mail. Nothing bad.
Neapolitan "So, it's not a wind shear map, but rather just a map that shows wind shear? Got it. Thanks for clearing that up!" ;-)
Deliberate obtuseness is best left to antiAGWers. It's not a forecast map. Which is an important point, as I've explained about the aftcasting in XTRP and in my straightline projections.
Thanks a, at least somebody respects their elders. LOL It's OK Canes a friend of mine.
Checked, nothing there. You must have sent it to somebody else, but that's what happens when kids try to mail something.
Thanks CybrTeddy
Facts and figures may fluctuate,but just by looking at satallite view,I'd say this is one powerful Cyclone!!
Hunker down time for our Phillippino brothers and sisters.
Does anyone here have a link for a landbased radar in the Phillippines?
Haha, I sent it to aspectre. I told him the same thing you did. I'll be back at the half, time to see the Dolphins get back to business.
Still... to tangle with a man who's rassled sabertooths, in snow, uphill, both ways...
I know what he's done way back in the day lol
Models trending west...
Why do we hear that incessantly when it means Earl approaching closer to the CONUS, but just crickets when it means 99L projects to cross to the Pacific instead of coming straight up to FL?
Psst! aspectre! Go back and look at my OP; I think you missed the smiley... ;-)
From PAGASA (click for larger image):
And won, don't forget I won!!! I was even there when Greenland was warm. Before I get back to the games, I'll show you a picture of what Greenland was really like. Football comes first, though.
This is what Greenland looked liked. Ice caps, humph!!!!
If there can be a good landfall path, at least
it is 4 degrees north of Manila. Pop. 20M where
most folks live and work. Our facility there was fine after the last typhoon but many had their homes flooded and the streets were full of debris for a month afterward. Hoping for the
best for those in the path. The government does
not have the resources to assist especially in
the North.
Link
Ah, the "appeal to authority". Poor debate technique.
At any rate, I presume you're aware of the many problems with the latest IPCC report. Yes, the article is from Fox News, but that doesn't change the findings of the independent panel commissioned by the UN.
The article also mentions yet another highly qualified scientist who disagrees with the AGW hypothesis, "Noted climate skeptic Don Easterbrook, an emeritus professor of geology at Western Washington University".
Other than that, as far as science goes the warmists have little beyond computer models, (increasingly discredited) tree ring proxies, and the various gamed surface temperature sets.
You seem quite confused about the current state of affairs. First of all, "contrarians" (I prefer to think of myself as a "realist" or "objectivist") have every bit as much science to consider as do the warmists. Much of the research that was done to support the AGW hypothesis actually supports the opposite viewpoint instead. We can also analyze the many flaws in the computer models that form the centerpiece of the AGW hypothesis. There is also the paleoclimate record, which is clearly relevant and often distorted or misunderstood by the warmists. Finally, there are many direct scientific measurements which are of equal interest to both sides.
I can't speak for others, but I certainly strive for intellectual honesty.
Oh, I think (and hope) that these types of discussions change minds. I hope more and more people educate themselves regarding science, the scientific method, and the AGW hypothesis. Solar astronomy is another very interesting area... ;-)
Man, Megi looks ferocious and my prayers go out to the people of the Philippines as they will get clocked on early Monday.
I see 99L is still slowly churning in the SW Caribbean sea also.
I published a new article for the "Examiner.com" on the Ft Worth Weather Examiner page, please stop by and take a look
Link
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