Paula continuing to weaken

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 07:53 PM GMT del 14 Ottobre 2010

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Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates that Tropical Storm Paula continues to weaken. The aircraft's latest center penetration at 3:08pm EDT found top winds at their flight level of 10,000 feet of just 55 mph in the eyewall. The SFMR instrument saw surface winds near 65 mph. The eyewall of Paula has collapsed, and satellite imagery shows the storm has a lopsided appearance due to wind shear. The low-level center is almost exposed to view, the classic satellite signature of a storm under high wind shear. Since the high wind shear affecting Paula is pushing most of the storm's heavy thunderstorms to the north, Cuba is receiving very little rain from the storm. Havana has reported two brief rain squalls from Paula, and top sustained winds of just 20 mph. Sporadic heavy rains are affecting the Florida Keys today, with Key West picking up 1.01" inches of rain thus far. Weather radar out of Key West (Figure 2) noted several regions offshore where Paula has dumped 5+ inches of rain.


Figure 1. Radar image from the Pinar del Rio radar in Cuba at 3:15pm EDT on October 14, 2010, showing that Paula is now very disorganized. Image credit: Cuban Institute of Meteorology.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated precipitation for Paula from the Key West radar.

Forecast for Paula
The models continue to predict that Paula will move along the north coast of Cuba or just inland during the next two days. On this track, Paula will move over Cuba's capital, Havana, tonight and Friday morning. An extended period of time over mountainous Cuba will likely destroy a small storm like Paula by Friday night, particularly since the storm will be under 30+ knots of wind shear. The models are pretty unanimous in showing that wind shear will pull Paula apart over the next day regardless of whether or not the center stays over water. Tropical storm force winds extend out just 45 miles to the north of Paula's center, so it is unlikely that the Florida Keys will experience sustained winds of 39+ mph. The 11am EDT wind probability product from NHC gives Key West a 21% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds; these odds are 70% for Havana. Havana may receive some minor wind damage from Paula, and there may be some minor flooding problems in the mountainous regions of Cuba.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The latest 8am EDT (12Z) NOGAPS and GFS model runs continue to predict the formation of a tropical depression 4 - 5 days from now, in the southern Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua. The storm is predicted to move northwest or northwards towards the Cayman Islands and Jamaica, once it forms. The GFS model has been pretty reliable in forecasting the genesis of new tropical depressions this year, and the fact that we have two major models predicting the formation of a new Caribbean tropical depression next week is worth paying attention to.

In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Megi is nearing typhoon strength, and is predicted to intensify into a major typhoon that will strike the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Sunday night or Monday morning.

Next update
I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Take a look at WU GFS model Next week.... crossing Cuba, east of FL
Link
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I hope the GFS and Nogaps are wrong about that monster they are showing in the future!
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Quoting scott39:
Upper level winds will be farther N next week than it has been in the GOM. This means if Richard developes, it would put Fl. more at risk.


Correct.
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Upper level winds will be farther N next week than it has been in the GOM. This means if Richard developes, it would put Fl. more at risk.
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Looks like dewpoints will bottom out into the 30's by tomorrow afternoon here.
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Seems like we have an African problem...
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.
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422. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
DEPRESSION BOB03-2010
5:30 AM IST October 15 2010
==================================

SUBJECT: Depression over west central, adjoining northwest & east central Bay of Bengal.

At 0:00 AM UTC, Depression BOB03-2010 over west central, adjoining northwest & east central Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards and lays centered near 18.5N 87.5E, or about 450 kms east-northeast of Visakhapatnam (Andhra Pradesh), 300 kms east-southeast of Gopalpur (Orissa) and 350 kms south of Digha (West Bengal).

The current environmental conditions and numerical weather prediction models suggest that the system would intensify further into a deep depression and move northwestward and cross Orissa coast between Gopalpur and Paradip by Friday evening/night.
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.
Member Since: Agosto 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
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Quoting Bordonaro:



Looks like no trip back into the Caribbean any time soon. Tiny storm would explain the lack of agreement in the models. Also seems when that happens the NHC is a little tongue tied.
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Quoting aspectre:
TropicalStormPaula reentered the Atlantic at SantaMarta,Cuba shortly after passing through Matanzas

TS.Paula's heading had turned eastward to (10.3degrees north of) dueEast
from its previous heading of (7.2degrees east of) EastNorthEast
TS.Paula's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions had decreased to ~13mph(~20.9km/h) from its previous travel speed of ~17.7mph(~28.4km/h)
Category1
14Oct 03amGMT - - 21.9n85.4w - - 80mph(~128.7km/h) - - - 993mb -- NHC.Adv.#11
14Oct 06amGMT - - 22.2n85.2w - - 80mph(~128.7km/h) - - - 993mb -- NHC.Adv..#11A
14Oct 09amGMT - - 22.3n84.9w - - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - - - 999mb -- NHC.Adv.#12
14Oct 12pmGMT - - 22.7n84.5w - - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - - - 999mb -- NHC.Adv.#12A
TropicalStorm
14Oct 03pmGMT - - 22.8n84.1w - - 70mph(~112.7km/h) - - 1000mb -- NHC.Adv.#13
14Oct 06pmGMT - - 22.8n83.5w - - 65mph(~104.6km/h) - - 1002mb -- NHC.Adv.#13A
14Oct 09pmGMT - - 22.8n82.8w - - 60mph(~96.6km/h) - - - 1002mb -- NHC.Adv.#14
15Oct 12amGMT - - 23.0n82.0w - - 55mph(~88.5km/h) - - - 1002mb -- NHC.Adv.#14A
15Oct 03amGMT - - 23.1n81.4w - - 45mph(~72.4km/h) - - - 1002mb -- NHC.Adv.#15

Copy &paste 21.9n85.4w, 22.2n85.2w, 22.3n84.9w, 22.7n84.5w, 22.8n84.1w-22.8n83.5w, 22.8n83.5w-22.8n82.8w, 22.8n82.8w-23.0n82.0w, 23.0n82.0w-23.1n81.4w, cun, mia, nbw, 23.1n81.4w-23.67n77.72w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12^hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~17hours from now to the southern tip of AndrosIsland,Bahamas
near MarsBaySettlement

^ The easternmost line-segment is the straightline projection.

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1. AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE AFTERWARDS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES LITTLE.
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TropicalStormPaula reentered the Atlantic at SantaMarta,Cuba shortly after passing through Matanzas

TS.Paula's heading had turned eastward to (10.3degrees north of) dueEast
from its previous heading of (7.2degrees east of) EastNorthEast
TS.Paula's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions had decreased to ~13mph(~20.9km/h) from its previous travel speed of ~17.7mph(~28.4km/h)
Category1
14Oct 03amGMT - - 21.9n85.4w - - 80mph(~128.7km/h) - - - 993mb -- NHC.Adv.#11
14Oct 06amGMT - - 22.2n85.2w - - 80mph(~128.7km/h) - - - 993mb -- NHC.Adv..#11A
14Oct 09amGMT - - 22.3n84.9w - - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - - - 999mb -- NHC.Adv.#12
14Oct 12pmGMT - - 22.7n84.5w - - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - - - 999mb -- NHC.Adv.#12A
TropicalStorm
14Oct 03pmGMT - - 22.8n84.1w - - 70mph(~112.7km/h) - - 1000mb -- NHC.Adv.#13
14Oct 06pmGMT - - 22.8n83.5w - - 65mph(~104.6km/h) - - 1002mb -- NHC.Adv.#13A
14Oct 09pmGMT - - 22.8n82.8w - - 60mph(~96.6km/h) - - - 1002mb -- NHC.Adv.#14
15Oct 12amGMT - - 23.0n82.0w - - 55mph(~88.5km/h) - - - 1002mb -- NHC.Adv.#14A
15Oct 03amGMT - - 23.1n81.4w - - 45mph(~72.4km/h) - - - 1002mb -- NHC.Adv.#15

Copy &paste 21.9n85.4w, 22.2n85.2w, 22.3n84.9w, 22.7n84.5w, 22.8n84.1w-22.8n83.5w, 22.8n83.5w-22.8n82.8w, 22.8n82.8w-23.0n82.0w, 23.0n82.0w-23.1n81.4w, cun, mia, nbw, 23.1n81.4w-23.67n77.72w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12^hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~17hours from now to the southern tip of AndrosIsland,Bahamas
near MarsBaySettlement

^ The easternmost line-segment is the straightline projection.
Member Since: Agosto 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
AOI/xx/xx
mark
12.55n/80.88w
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AOI/xx/xx
mark
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Paula, pfft:

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Quoting Neapolitan:
Yes, I realize the CV season is, climatologically-speaking, over. But a couple of things:

1) There have been CV-type storms into the end of October in the past;
2) Any storm that comes off of Africa is not necessarily a CV-type storm (for instance, several of 2005's post-September storms began in the central/east Atlantic);
3) Waters in the east and central Atlantic are still very warm (in fact, October is generally when these waters reach peak temperature);

In this image, there's a very healthy system moving off of Africa. The swirl in the lower left has been declared a pouch (PGI57L), so at least a few people are watching it...

NOTE: I am not saying this will develop into a named storm, nor am I saying that if it does, it'll cross the entire Atlantic and do damage anywhere. I'm merely pointing out what, IMO, could be an AOI in a day or two. That's all...

Click for large loop:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image


There was a cloud over my backyard. I'm just saying, keep an eye out. Next year that cloud could become a pouch and eventually a AOI and eventually an invest and eventually get numbered and then named and then rapidly intensify. Just saying...IMO
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
I am currently unable to access the Cuban radar, does anybody have the site URL for the academic who has radar images saved for landfalling storms? I think it may have been at a Colorado university.

TIA


HERES YOUR LINK http://www.spacecoastweather.org/wx13.html
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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
401. presslord 11:15 PM EDT on October 14, 2010
I know you've been busy doing good but "all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy."


His hobby may be with the boat, but his heart is with the people1 Trust he is not bored lol!
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Member Since: Luglio 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6049
Quoting gordydunnot:
Did anyone post that the Richard wannabee is at 10%.
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401. presslord 11:15 PM EDT on October 14, 2010
I know you've been busy doing good but "all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy."
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good night everyone!
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Quoting doorman79:
Link

Harpo!!!

Arthur Adolph "Harpo" Marx played the harp in most of his films.

Man.... more facts..
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Shen...under utilized lately I'm sad to report
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Did anyone post that the Richard wannabee is at 10%.
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What would this be, with Sept. conditions??
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Nor' Easter "N"

AOI "A"

Paula "P"
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From the discussion:

PAULA IS MOVING EASTWARD OR 085/12. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A BROAD
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS THE TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...WHICH
SHOULD CAUSE THE LOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS TO DECOUPLE. THE
RESULTANT SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL REMNANT CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
BE FORCED SOUTHWARD BY A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT IS
CURRENTLY BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...FLORIDA... AND THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
Member Since: Luglio 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6049
Link

Harpo!!!
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Quoting presslord:
"When ya see the Southern Cross for the first time...ya understand that's why you came this way..."

How's the boat?
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Press,

Like the avatar! I remember watching the marx bros as a child! I liked Harpo!
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391. JLPR2
Holding on but loosing steam steadily.



Also this one is looking happy.
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Quoting presslord:
"When ya see the Southern Cross for the first time...ya understand that's why you came this way..."


The Cross road has taken a many of man!
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Quoting presslord:
"When ya see the Southern cross for the first time...ya understand why you came this way..."
Hey presss. Yep that was what was running thu my mind.
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388. xcool
buzzz
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"When ya see the Southern Cross for the first time...ya understand that's why you came this way..."
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levi has done 100% w/the track however,alot better than my guess...
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Quoting JupiterFL:
They are all lunatics if you ask me. Sneaky smart, yes, but still lunatics.
I have yet to see the Southern Cross but I understand the world looks different from that latitude.
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They are'nt my facts and figures, they are from one of the main economic and influential companies in the web.... Anyhow thanks, It's gone
Quoting Orcasystems:
375. sunlinepr 2:40 AM GMT on October 15, 2010

Please stop confusing people on here with facts and figures.... some do not respond well to reality :)

You to may end up with a one way chopper trip :)
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Oops! - stepped in for a moment to check thoughts about the future of "Richard" now that Paula and her rains are abating here.

Steppin' back out - fight nice. eve
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.