Paula continuing to weaken
Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates that Tropical Storm Paula continues to weaken. The aircraft's latest center penetration at 3:08pm EDT found top winds at their flight level of 10,000 feet of just 55 mph in the eyewall. The SFMR instrument saw surface winds near 65 mph. The eyewall of Paula has collapsed, and satellite imagery shows the storm has a lopsided appearance due to wind shear. The low-level center is almost exposed to view, the classic satellite signature of a storm under high wind shear. Since the high wind shear affecting Paula is pushing most of the storm's heavy thunderstorms to the north, Cuba is receiving very little rain from the storm. Havana has reported two brief rain squalls from Paula, and top sustained winds of just 20 mph. Sporadic heavy rains are affecting the Florida Keys today, with Key West picking up 1.01" inches of rain thus far. Weather radar out of Key West (Figure 2) noted several regions offshore where Paula has dumped 5+ inches of rain.
Figure 1. Radar image from the Pinar del Rio radar in Cuba at 3:15pm EDT on October 14, 2010, showing that Paula is now very disorganized. Image credit: Cuban Institute of Meteorology.
Figure 2. Radar-estimated precipitation for Paula from the Key West radar.
Forecast for Paula
The models continue to predict that Paula will move along the north coast of Cuba or just inland during the next two days. On this track, Paula will move over Cuba's capital, Havana, tonight and Friday morning. An extended period of time over mountainous Cuba will likely destroy a small storm like Paula by Friday night, particularly since the storm will be under 30+ knots of wind shear. The models are pretty unanimous in showing that wind shear will pull Paula apart over the next day regardless of whether or not the center stays over water. Tropical storm force winds extend out just 45 miles to the north of Paula's center, so it is unlikely that the Florida Keys will experience sustained winds of 39+ mph. The 11am EDT wind probability product from NHC gives Key West a 21% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds; these odds are 70% for Havana. Havana may receive some minor wind damage from Paula, and there may be some minor flooding problems in the mountainous regions of Cuba.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The latest 8am EDT (12Z) NOGAPS and GFS model runs continue to predict the formation of a tropical depression 4 - 5 days from now, in the southern Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua. The storm is predicted to move northwest or northwards towards the Cayman Islands and Jamaica, once it forms. The GFS model has been pretty reliable in forecasting the genesis of new tropical depressions this year, and the fact that we have two major models predicting the formation of a new Caribbean tropical depression next week is worth paying attention to.
In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Megi is nearing typhoon strength, and is predicted to intensify into a major typhoon that will strike the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Sunday night or Monday morning.
Next update
I'll have an update Friday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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TS.Paula's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions had increased to ~15mph(~24.1km/h) from its previous travel speed of ~12.7mph(~20.4km/h)
Category1
13Oct 09pmGMT - - 21.7n85.6w - - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#10
14Oct 12amGMT - - 21.8n85.6w - - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#10A
14Oct 03amGMT - - 21.9n85.4w - - 80mph(~128.7km/h) - - - 993mb -- NHC.Adv.#11
14Oct 06amGMT - - 22.2n85.2w - - 80mph(~128.7km/h) - - - 993mb -- NHC.Adv..#11A
14Oct 09amGMT - - 22.3n84.9w - - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - - - 999mb -- NHC.Adv.#12
14Oct 12pmGMT - - 22.7n84.5w - - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - - - 999mb -- NHC.Adv.#12A
TropicalStorm
14Oct 03pmGMT - - 22.8n84.1w - - 70mph(~112.7km/h) - - 1000mb -- NHC.Adv.#13
14Oct 06pmGMT - - 22.8n83.5w - - 65mph(~104.6km/h) - - 1002mb -- NHC.Adv.#13A
14Oct 09pmGMT - - 22.8n82.8w - - 60mph(~96.6km/h) - - - 1002mb -- NHC.Adv.#14
Copy &paste 21.7n85.6w, 21.8n85.6w, 21.9n85.4w, 22.2n85.2w, 22.3n84.9w-22.7n84.5w, 22.7n84.5w-22.8n84.1w, 22.8n84.1w-22.8n83.5w, 22.8n83.5w-22.8n82.8w, cun, mia, nbw, 22.8n82.8w-22.8n79.86w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12^hours.
Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~12hours from now to entry into the Atlantic near DosAmigos,Cuba
though I wouldn't be surprised if it took a dip into the nearby Caribbean
^ The easternmost line-segment is the straightline projection.
LOL. Perfect!
Alex was interesting as well, pressure of a major Hurricane. Paula was no doubt an interesting storm in my books. Plenty of fascinating stuff this year.
I'm scheduled on the flight to investigate TS Paula off the north coast of Cuba tonight. I suspect, as fast as she is being sheared, that we'll cancel but I've seen us fly much less impressive systems!!
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/LRandyB/comment.html?entrynum=170
Paula hits Cuba.. Richard on the Horizon? 10/14/10
GFS has Richard forming or formed by Monday. A reliable time frame. Beyond that, its guessing speculation.
Best comment all month!!!!
ROFLMAO X 2!!!!
Still had tears in my eyes...here's the comment that sent me on the floor!! Still hurtin! Whew!
Best and funniest comment days! LMAO!!
Perhaps
Hi Kman, Is it my eyes or the actual LLC of Paula, is on or just off southern coastline of Cuba already, just checked weather bug on my BB and the winds here are due west!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html
I apparently, have no sense of humor. :P
That is what I have been suggesting for the past couple of hours. These sheared, decoupled systems can do odd things, including producing more than one center. I recall a system just east of the eastern Caribbean that sent a false center into the NE Caribbean while the true center was still East of the islands.
I became sceptical of the North coast center position when I saw the Ascat pass from this morning.
Am I the last to notice that if you zoom in under the storm clouds in google earth you actually see see the rain falling. whats next, wave heights?
Mid-level center is fighting to pull it back in though. No sign of losing latitude points yet. The extent of the decoupling, or the distance between mid and low-level centers, is not increasing. If anything they are getting slightly closer together with time, based on radar. You can actually see the surface center now on radar with the ghost mid-level center off to the northwest.
I think she means stuff like this. These are a couple of my images.
Snowstorm in December 2007 (cloud overlay is "above" the viewer, with the NWS radar overlay on the ground).
Cyclone Gael viewed "underneath" from Madagascar:
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 13.5N 137.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, AIRCRAFT AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
This is what they were talking about I think. It's actually a raining graphic. Pretty cool
You have to have the program google earth (google it) turn on weather and zoom into the clouds until your under them. the programs free and seriously cool.
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