Paula continuing to weaken

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 07:53 PM GMT del 14 Ottobre 2010

Share this Blog
3
+

Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates that Tropical Storm Paula continues to weaken. The aircraft's latest center penetration at 3:08pm EDT found top winds at their flight level of 10,000 feet of just 55 mph in the eyewall. The SFMR instrument saw surface winds near 65 mph. The eyewall of Paula has collapsed, and satellite imagery shows the storm has a lopsided appearance due to wind shear. The low-level center is almost exposed to view, the classic satellite signature of a storm under high wind shear. Since the high wind shear affecting Paula is pushing most of the storm's heavy thunderstorms to the north, Cuba is receiving very little rain from the storm. Havana has reported two brief rain squalls from Paula, and top sustained winds of just 20 mph. Sporadic heavy rains are affecting the Florida Keys today, with Key West picking up 1.01" inches of rain thus far. Weather radar out of Key West (Figure 2) noted several regions offshore where Paula has dumped 5+ inches of rain.


Figure 1. Radar image from the Pinar del Rio radar in Cuba at 3:15pm EDT on October 14, 2010, showing that Paula is now very disorganized. Image credit: Cuban Institute of Meteorology.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated precipitation for Paula from the Key West radar.

Forecast for Paula
The models continue to predict that Paula will move along the north coast of Cuba or just inland during the next two days. On this track, Paula will move over Cuba's capital, Havana, tonight and Friday morning. An extended period of time over mountainous Cuba will likely destroy a small storm like Paula by Friday night, particularly since the storm will be under 30+ knots of wind shear. The models are pretty unanimous in showing that wind shear will pull Paula apart over the next day regardless of whether or not the center stays over water. Tropical storm force winds extend out just 45 miles to the north of Paula's center, so it is unlikely that the Florida Keys will experience sustained winds of 39+ mph. The 11am EDT wind probability product from NHC gives Key West a 21% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds; these odds are 70% for Havana. Havana may receive some minor wind damage from Paula, and there may be some minor flooding problems in the mountainous regions of Cuba.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The latest 8am EDT (12Z) NOGAPS and GFS model runs continue to predict the formation of a tropical depression 4 - 5 days from now, in the southern Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua. The storm is predicted to move northwest or northwards towards the Cayman Islands and Jamaica, once it forms. The GFS model has been pretty reliable in forecasting the genesis of new tropical depressions this year, and the fact that we have two major models predicting the formation of a new Caribbean tropical depression next week is worth paying attention to.

In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Megi is nearing typhoon strength, and is predicted to intensify into a major typhoon that will strike the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Sunday night or Monday morning.

Next update
I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 32 - 1

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 — Blog Index

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This weekend will be interesting to observe what may materialize down in the SW Caribbean Sea. Already, there appears to be an area of disturbed weather brewing just to the north of Panama. This area just may be the seed to spring what the reliable models want to develop Richard in the coming days.

We should know by Sunday or maybe sooner of what we may be dealing with down the road.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The models finally caught on that the hook over Cuba isn't happening.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sammywammybamy:
LLC..


Look at my post # 19

I wonder if the HH was following a false center ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Center is right on the North Coast.
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:
Center exposed on the South coast ??

Tough call. The circulation looks broad. Looks to me like the circulation is inland, but close to the south Cuba border.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting bjdsrq:
What a lame final quarter to hurricane season 2010.


Lame in which way? Have you not been entertained enough? Tell us, what would it take to "unlame" it for you?
Member Since: novembre 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13537
Quoting bjdsrq:


Deja vu circa sept 20, 2010. Don't start the @200+ hours and 'consistent' BS stuff again so soon already please. If anything, 200+ hours out will be the converse of what it's calling for. That's been it's record in recent weeks for anything beyond 72 hours.
You misinterpreted what I said. I'm not focusing on the 200+ hour forecast; rather, I'm focusing on the fact that the GFS develops a system in just a few days. And yes, it has been consistent with the development of a tropical cyclone in the southern Caribbean. I've seen more than 10 runs of the GFS showing development with good time-line progression.

Do you see me 'trusting' models beyond 200 hours anyways?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think it's rather cruel for Paula to be thrown into the norther Caribbean again. Surely she'll be allowed to RIP.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Center exposed on the South coast ??

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
You know once again we have been really lucky with the Fish or almost fish storms this year.. Paulas not going to do any really extensive or bad damage overall while the damage in a mexico and few other places was very bad considering the number of storms we have had and how many were majors there has not been the Huge swaths of devastation we might have had like with Hugo. I guess Mexico and new Foundland got it worst with the islands here taking a good hit from Earl and pre Otto has actually caused a LOT of Damage in the Virgins..
But It could have been much worse..
Not over yet but winding down for sure...
Shear is going to be a big problem for most storm that form from now on and water temps are starting to drop and when the highs build south in over the next 10 days or so will drop even more..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting alvarig1263:


Richard may prove to "unlame" it for you. lol ;)


Oh, I've learned my lesson not to believe any models outside of 72 hours. Just a couple weeks ago, many here were burned thinking a line of storms was going to hit FL out of the carib first week of Oct based on GFS and other models. Instead we had desert-like conditions with the most beautiful early Oct beach weather I've seen in 20 years. I don't chase ghost anymore. Please don't use the 'R' word until the NHC names it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
At 264 hours the 12z GFS has a hurricane making landfall over southeastern Florida. That probably caught your attention. Lol. Anyways, this is extremely long-range and the system has yet to develop. Instead of looking at the specifics in track and intensity, we should focus on the fact that the GFS has been consistent with the development of a tropical cyclone in the southern Caribbean just about 4-5 days from now. As Jeff Masters pointed out, the GFS has been doing well after the upgrade with spotting the genesis of tropical cyclones.

Definitely worth paying attention to.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Could Paula be trying to form a new LLC?

Lower Convergence:



Upper Divergence:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
the fact that we have two major models predicting the formation of a new Caribbean tropical depression next week is worth paying attention to.

ok.... am paying attention.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
the fact that we have two major models predicting the formation of a new Caribbean tropical depression next week is worth paying attention to.

ok.... am paying attention.


The only reliable model this year has been the XTRP.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting bjdsrq:
What a lame final quarter to hurricane season 2010.


Richard may prove to "unlame" it for you. lol ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What a lame final quarter to hurricane season 2010.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The COC of Paula will soon be emerging off the south of Cuba at around 22.2N/82.7W IMO, probably in another 2-3 hours, could be interesting to see if it holds together or regains strength, JMO.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Um, can someone let the other peeps on-the old blog that there's a new blog
Member Since: Giugno 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1339
TS Megi looking more and more threatening.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
the fact that we have two major models predicting the formation of a new Caribbean tropical depression next week is worth paying attention to.

ok.... am paying attention.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks like Richard is going to be a biggy.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
hmmm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 32 - 1

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 — Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.