Igor delivers punishing blow to Newfoundland; 95L growing more organized
Hurricane Igor delivered a punishing blow to Newfoundland Canada, which suffered one of its worst poundings by a hurricane in the past century. Igor made it all the way to southeast Newfoundland yesterday as a Category 1 hurricane, bringing a peak wind gust of 107 mph to Cape Pine in Southeast Newfoundland. Igor brought sustained winds of 58 mph, gusting to 85 mph, to Newfoundland's capital, St John's. The city recorded a remarkably low pressure of 958 mb, and picked up 3.99" of rain during Igor's passage. Widespread rain amounts of 5 - 9 inches fell over much of southeast Newfoundland's rocky terrain, which is unable to absorb so much water. The resulting severe flooding washed out hundreds of roads, collapsed several major bridges, and forced numerous rescues of people trapped on the second stories of their homes by flood waters. Igor generated swells of 6 - 8 meters (20 - 26 feet) that pounded the southern coast of Newfoundland last night and this morning; significant wave heights reached 39 feet at the Newfoundland Grand Banks Buoy, and a storm surge of a meters (3.28 feet) hit the northeast shores of Newfoundland last night. Igor is now a large and powerful extratropical storm off Greenland and Labrador, and continues to generate hurricane force winds over water--winds at Angisoq, Greenland were sustained at 66 mph this morning.
It is not that unusual for hurricanes to penetrate as far north as Newfoundland's latitude; over 40 hurricanes have done so. The last time this occurred was in 2003, when Hurricane Fabian made it to latitude 48.7°N as a hurricane. The all time record is held by Hurricane Faith of 1966, which followed the Gulf Stream and maintained hurricane status all the way north to latitude 61.1°N, just off the coast of Norway.
Figure 1. Little Barsway bridge 10 km north of Grand Bank, Newfoundland, after floodwaters from Hurricane Igor swept it away. Image credit: George J.B. Rose.
Figure 2. Hurricane Igor at 11:47am EDT on Wednesday, September 21, as it pounded Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: Environment Canada.
Figure 3. Video of impressive flooding on Newfoundland's Burin Peninsula, whose 20,000 residents were cut off from the rest of the province by flooded roads and closed bridges.
Dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L growing more organized
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) moving westward at 15 mph though the south-central Caribbean is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the northern coast of Venezuela and the islands of Curacao, Aruba, and Bonaire this morning. A wind gust of 38 mph was recorded at Curacao last night. Radar from Curacao and satellite loops show that 95L's thunderstorms have a pronounced rotation, with a center of circulation located just off the coast of South America. Thunderstorm activity is fairly limited, but is slowly increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Wind shear over the Caribbean is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the rest of the week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I'd put the odds higher, at 70%. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon.
The wave should continue moving westward near 15 mph through Friday afternoon, when it will arrive near the northern coast of Nicaragua. Most of the models show some development of 95L by Thursday or Friday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains to the Netherlands Antilles Islands and north coast of South America on today and Thursday as passes to the north. Heavy rains may also spread to Southwest Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday, and the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Honduras, and Nicaragua on Friday. When 95L moves over or just north of Honduras on Saturday, a trough of low pressure diving southwards over the Eastern U.S. will weaken the steering currents over the Western Caribbean and cause 95L to turn more to the northwest and slow. If the center of 95L remains over water, the storm could easily develop into powerful and dangerous Hurricane Matthew over the Western Caribbean early next week. Even if the center stays over land, the circulation of the storm may be capable of generating dangerous flooding rains over Central America. Steering currents will be weak over the Western Caribbean through the middle of next week, and 95L may spend up to a week over the Western Caribbean, drenching the region with very heavy rains. Another possibility is that the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. will be strong enough to draw 95L northwards across western Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico 6 - 8 days from now. This solution is not being emphasized as much in today's model's runs as yesterday's, and the danger to the U.S. is uncertain at this point.
Figure 4. Morning satellite image of 95L.
Tropical Storm Lisa
Tropical Storm Lisa continues to churn the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. By Friday night, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa. The high shear may be capable of destroying the storm by early next week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.
Georgette headed towards Arizona
Tropical Depression Georgette hit the tip of Baja California as a weak tropical storm with 40 mph winds yesterday, but dropped little rain. Georgette is in the Gulf of California, headed northwards, and could bring heavy rains to Arizona on Thursday.
Hurricane Karl's aftermath
Mexico continues to clean up from Hurricane Karl, which made landfall last Friday in Veracruz state as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Karl dumped approximately one foot of rain in the Sierra Madre Oriental Mountains, which cause some rivers to rise to unprecedented levels. The death toll from Karl's flooding and mudslides stands at 16, and ten of thousands remain in shelters after being displaced from their flooded homes. Insurance company AIR Worldwide is estimating insured losses at $100 - $200 million. Actual damage is estimated to be as much as $3.9 billion, since insurance take-up rates are low in Mexico. Karl is the second billion-dollar hurricane to hit Mexico this year; in June, Hurricane Alex hit just south of the Texas border as a Category 2 storm, killing 51 and doing $1.9 billion in damage.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model predicts a new tropical depression might develop in the Central Caribbean about seven days from now. The NOGAPS model predicts a new tropical depression will form off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.
My next post will be Thursday morning.
Jeff Masters
A buoy is left stranded on the beach from the storm waves of Hurricane Igor...
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8AM TWO:
1. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...
AND THIS DISTURBANCE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE UNIT AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS.
Here's the favorable conditions:
Up to 80% I see.
Not surprising. Looks like more of a circulation based on satellite. The 850 vorticity increased and is even farther north than last night.
Still under some easterly shear, but this should slowly lessen over the next 36 hours as it moves under a massive anticyclone aloft. All in all, strengthening should be favored, particularly tomorrow.
LOL, I was thinking maybe NHC wants to delay designation as long as possible as not to have to issue a forecast. From all appearances it will be a difficult storm to forecast.
You sound confident in that blogcast.
I bet Cantore is polishing the goggles already.
Honduras bound?
By doing so, its likely that its energy then gets transferred/sucked in by Low#2 which then takes the NE/NNE road.
If 95L does develop, it may well end up stop Low#2 from doing anything due to proximity. Does it take the same path? Looks pretty unclear.
Also to note, even if 95L (and whatever it grows up to be) doesn't make a direct landfall in Nicaragua doesn't mean that it won't be affected by land proximity. If it doesn't hit it or only just barely, it's going to be close to land for days. Central America isn't exactly flat. It'll have some effect, just how much remains to be seen.
Furthermore, those areas may well get pretty wet over the coming days along the shoreline regardless. Never the best situation for that part of the world (not as bad as Haiti, but some of those areas - particularly Guatemala further on up - have been drenched this year. Added rainfall is hardly desirable).
You can say that again...
If not there, in the neighborhood for sure.
Gonna be an interesting one. So many possibilities.
Hi All,
Well the CV season looks to be pretty much over. Lisa is still out there but as the troughs and fronts and shear pick up as cold air moves south storms don't make it very far West usually as evidenced by Lisa.
Plus front are starting to push through the Sahara
They may have to wait a bit longer than they anticipated. I can think of a couple offhand that will be candidates for a nervous breakdown before long. ;-)
Morning to you as well. This is going to be a weird forecast down the road for sure!
Yep
2. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA IS
LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS REDEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR ANY ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MP
lol weatherwart well yep she's from cayman and she has it in her name stormwatcherCI(Cayman Islands)
Yeah, I don't understand the nervous breakdown and worry at this point. Wait until something forms and the NHC and the models have a good handle on things. Then if it looks like it is headed to your area, do the prudent things, prepare your house and then leave if necessary. Things can always be replaced. That's why you have insurance...
Very true, but you know how it goes... LOL
This far out, the only way I would be concerned is if I was getting ready to take a cruise to Belize & Honduras. :-)
are you talking about me??? LOL
Good morning everyone, back in the office today but had to checkin to see what 95L is up to this morning.
I will be checking in and out as I can.
AL, 95, 2010092312, , BEST, 0, 135N, 748W, 30, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 130, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Looking at a whole page of GFS model cycle comparision statistics it is difficult to see a major difference in model cycles. Generally you could say the 00Z and 12Z correlate better, but not by much. I also however believe the 00Z and 12Z cycles are better, but just based on they have the upper air data.
The bloom of 2005 was a 12-month siege that killed sea life in an area the size of Rhode Island
Hot one here this a.m., with high humidity.
Cloudburst over the Capital yesterday afternoon caused minor landslides and flooding on the 2 main exits from the City (Port-of-Spain) creating major Havoc!
The Trop.Atl looks pretty Benign today, as though the Waves are calming down.
95L is going to bring very heavy rains to somewhere, regardless of development.
Lol. Very True.
I actually moved from Ohio to South Carolina. So I'm possibly in line for some effects from this system. As a weather geek, I'll enjoy it. But I don't live on the coast. If I did, and I owned a place...I would for sure be hoping it didn't strengthen or hit.
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