Igor delivers punishing blow to Newfoundland; 95L growing more organized
Hurricane Igor delivered a punishing blow to Newfoundland Canada, which suffered one of its worst poundings by a hurricane in the past century. Igor made it all the way to southeast Newfoundland yesterday as a Category 1 hurricane, bringing a peak wind gust of 107 mph to Cape Pine in Southeast Newfoundland. Igor brought sustained winds of 58 mph, gusting to 85 mph, to Newfoundland's capital, St John's. The city recorded a remarkably low pressure of 958 mb, and picked up 3.99" of rain during Igor's passage. Widespread rain amounts of 5 - 9 inches fell over much of southeast Newfoundland's rocky terrain, which is unable to absorb so much water. The resulting severe flooding washed out hundreds of roads, collapsed several major bridges, and forced numerous rescues of people trapped on the second stories of their homes by flood waters. Igor generated swells of 6 - 8 meters (20 - 26 feet) that pounded the southern coast of Newfoundland last night and this morning; significant wave heights reached 39 feet at the Newfoundland Grand Banks Buoy, and a storm surge of a meters (3.28 feet) hit the northeast shores of Newfoundland last night. Igor is now a large and powerful extratropical storm off Greenland and Labrador, and continues to generate hurricane force winds over water--winds at Angisoq, Greenland were sustained at 66 mph this morning.
It is not that unusual for hurricanes to penetrate as far north as Newfoundland's latitude; over 40 hurricanes have done so. The last time this occurred was in 2003, when Hurricane Fabian made it to latitude 48.7°N as a hurricane. The all time record is held by Hurricane Faith of 1966, which followed the Gulf Stream and maintained hurricane status all the way north to latitude 61.1°N, just off the coast of Norway.
Figure 1. Little Barsway bridge 10 km north of Grand Bank, Newfoundland, after floodwaters from Hurricane Igor swept it away. Image credit: George J.B. Rose.
Figure 2. Hurricane Igor at 11:47am EDT on Wednesday, September 21, as it pounded Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: Environment Canada.
Figure 3. Video of impressive flooding on Newfoundland's Burin Peninsula, whose 20,000 residents were cut off from the rest of the province by flooded roads and closed bridges.
Dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L growing more organized
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) moving westward at 15 mph though the south-central Caribbean is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the northern coast of Venezuela and the islands of Curacao, Aruba, and Bonaire this morning. A wind gust of 38 mph was recorded at Curacao last night. Radar from Curacao and satellite loops show that 95L's thunderstorms have a pronounced rotation, with a center of circulation located just off the coast of South America. Thunderstorm activity is fairly limited, but is slowly increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Wind shear over the Caribbean is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the rest of the week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I'd put the odds higher, at 70%. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon.
The wave should continue moving westward near 15 mph through Friday afternoon, when it will arrive near the northern coast of Nicaragua. Most of the models show some development of 95L by Thursday or Friday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains to the Netherlands Antilles Islands and north coast of South America on today and Thursday as passes to the north. Heavy rains may also spread to Southwest Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday, and the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Honduras, and Nicaragua on Friday. When 95L moves over or just north of Honduras on Saturday, a trough of low pressure diving southwards over the Eastern U.S. will weaken the steering currents over the Western Caribbean and cause 95L to turn more to the northwest and slow. If the center of 95L remains over water, the storm could easily develop into powerful and dangerous Hurricane Matthew over the Western Caribbean early next week. Even if the center stays over land, the circulation of the storm may be capable of generating dangerous flooding rains over Central America. Steering currents will be weak over the Western Caribbean through the middle of next week, and 95L may spend up to a week over the Western Caribbean, drenching the region with very heavy rains. Another possibility is that the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. will be strong enough to draw 95L northwards across western Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico 6 - 8 days from now. This solution is not being emphasized as much in today's model's runs as yesterday's, and the danger to the U.S. is uncertain at this point.
Figure 4. Morning satellite image of 95L.
Tropical Storm Lisa
Tropical Storm Lisa continues to churn the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. By Friday night, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa. The high shear may be capable of destroying the storm by early next week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.
Georgette headed towards Arizona
Tropical Depression Georgette hit the tip of Baja California as a weak tropical storm with 40 mph winds yesterday, but dropped little rain. Georgette is in the Gulf of California, headed northwards, and could bring heavy rains to Arizona on Thursday.
Hurricane Karl's aftermath
Mexico continues to clean up from Hurricane Karl, which made landfall last Friday in Veracruz state as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Karl dumped approximately one foot of rain in the Sierra Madre Oriental Mountains, which cause some rivers to rise to unprecedented levels. The death toll from Karl's flooding and mudslides stands at 16, and ten of thousands remain in shelters after being displaced from their flooded homes. Insurance company AIR Worldwide is estimating insured losses at $100 - $200 million. Actual damage is estimated to be as much as $3.9 billion, since insurance take-up rates are low in Mexico. Karl is the second billion-dollar hurricane to hit Mexico this year; in June, Hurricane Alex hit just south of the Texas border as a Category 2 storm, killing 51 and doing $1.9 billion in damage.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model predicts a new tropical depression might develop in the Central Caribbean about seven days from now. The NOGAPS model predicts a new tropical depression will form off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.
My next post will be Thursday morning.
Jeff Masters
A buoy is left stranded on the beach from the storm waves of Hurricane Igor...
Reader Comments
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No worries.
Past this time, yes. Neapolitan has posted a graph more than once depicting the track bias towards Florida from at least late October onwards, but late September also tends to veer towards that solution. (When only discussing the United States, I hasten to add).
However, as I stated to you, a more comprehensive approach would be to show how hurricanes affect the Gulf Coast within this period including non-major strikes as well (you could exclude tropical storm hits if you wished). Major hurricanes do not hit the United States as major hurricanes that often at any point in any season (as stated yesterday, only 10 occasions within the last 15 years, of which 7 of those came within 2 years. Of course, I can appreciate the sentiment that that is ten times too many).
It's actually a lateral pass. Good morning, everyone. I was just outside looking at Jupiter and one of her moons. Spectacular!
Excerpt:
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...THE
LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EXTEND
EASTWARD TO NEAR CUBA BY MONDAY. THE GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS THAT
OUT OF THIS BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AREA A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW IS FORECAST TO EMERGE SOUTH OF CUBA ON TUESDAY AND IS THEN
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND COULD APPROACH THE FLORIDA STRAITS
BY WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWARD MOTION THEREAFTER FORECAST. GIVEN THAT
THIS IS WELL INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND OBVIOUSLY TAKING INTO
ACCOUNT ANY UNCERTAINTY IN THE GUIDANCE...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THESE DEVELOPMENTS AS THERE MAY BE A POSSIBILITY THAT THIS
DISTURBANCE COULD UNDERGO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
not found of big wave surfing -- but this MaNature Rocking & the harnessing her power - goes good w/Coffee till Coop's shows w/Food
Link
Oh YEAHHHHHHHHHHHHH - that's why automatic generator & roll down shutter, reinforced garage door, trimmed trees, food & water stash etc...
That would be a very specific track. It wouldn't happen often, as the tracks tend to move in a south to north motion past the Southern Gulf of Mexico rather than continuing westwards due to troughs eroding ridges and such.
Hurricane King was close in 1950, but only paralleled the coast until Central Florida when it went inland. Morever, making a second landfall on the US East Coast depends whether you classify the Floridian eastern shoreline as part of the US East Coast or not.
I can have a look, but nothing specific comes to mind except that aforementioned example.
Pattern brings 95L mainly over water into the GOM.
lol -- Who YOU talking to?????? heh, heh, heh
though I've been known to listen to spanish accents very well bawhahahahaaa
sorry - Occupado ; )
Just guessing, I'd say 72.8W 13.2N
Well, riding the Florida east coast is difficult for any storm to do - only Cleo and David really come to mind in actually doing it, and they were Cape Verde trackers.
There have been examples of storms coming from the Caribbean as 'homebrew', crossing Florida prior to making a second landfall on the US East Coast. Here's one:
As for the Euro, I can't tell if it kills 95L off in Central America with a second low spinning up which goes up by Florida or whether it's a single entity. All of the models seem confused, to be honest - mainly over this second low.
This may be a storm more confusing and difficult to predict than normal: Timing of the trough, land interaction, the positioning and strength of the ULL, as well as competing vortexes in the Caribbean.
Furthermore, we are dealing with a storm that is either: a.) Not properly developed yet, or b.) [If it is a 2nd low that causes the run across the Florida peninsula] a low that hasn't even developed.
if ANYONE'S gonna stay w/surfmom, it'll be ME, I got dibs
I know we've all been bored out of our (loofah) gourd this Season™, but c'mon...a whole page of talk from CrownWeather, and this is the last line:
The other alternative is that if this does come ashore in Central America, then we would see significant weakening and possible dissipation due to the mountainous terrain of Central America.
Which is completely possible.
Busy day - just popped in for a quick look at the models (thanks, Ike) before I head out for the day.
The GFS looks just as strange.
Yes, it could end up just dissipating over Central America. That's the first question of a series of many - if it crosses Nicaragua, how far inland does it go? If it doesn't cross Central America, then of course, it answers that question.
It's asking a lot for even a hurricane to gallivant across the Nicaraguan/Honduran mountains and live to tell the tale, let alone anything weaker. It has happened before (see Florida Keys Hurricane of 1906), but it's rare.
It could be a case of remnant regeneration, but who knows.
216 hour GFS....
Good morning! You could be right. I was looking at the shortwave. Kind of hard to tell with the convection popping on top. What are you looking at?
RGB. It does look to have a very good spin this morning and vorticity is 100% improved since yesterday.
Doesn't develop 95L, but develops this 'second low' which then tracks into Florida. 95L skims the Mosquito Coast, but that seems to take the life out of it.
Or so it seems.
That may seem why it's odd why the GFS keeps it 'stalled' over the Yucatan for a long time - because it doesn't stall it at all.
Of course, it'll all change in about 6 hours.
Seems like this has been going on for 10 days...with a long-range GFS system still 7-10 days out. Why you can't trust long range models.
Oh yeah, looks a lot better than even late last night. Colder, that's for sure. Well, I think the NHC may name it a TD sometime in these next 12-24 hours, yes?
Seems like at one point in time or another over the last few days that this storm had hit every part of Florida. Be interesting to see where it eventually ends up. Be nice if it just goes south of Florida and doesn't actually hit any land.
What I notice is the trend of the ECMWF and GFS....
Looking at both the ECMWF and GFS..looks like the focus is on the western Caribbean...Central America...Cuba...peninsula Florida and the Bahamas.
If you don't live in any of those areas, you may be safe from tropical systems for at least the next 7-10 days.
.LONG TERM...SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE EURO WILL MAKE A SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCE ON THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR DRAGGED INTO THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT NEXT WEEK. USED A BLEND OF THE MUCH COLDER GFS
WITH THE EURO ON TEMPS NEXT WEEK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE FRONT
TO THE SOUTH WILL HELP PROTECT THE NORTHERN GULF FROM ANY TROPICAL
SYSTEMS...WHICH BOTH THE GFS AND EURO HINT AT EMERGING NORTH OUT
OF THE CARRIBEAN. ITS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLDER GFS COULD BEAR
FRUIT BY WEEK`S END AS THESE SYSTEMS MERGE WELL TO OUR EAST. CHOSE
NOT TO CHANGE THE GOING FCST TEMPS MUCH DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES
BUT EVEN THE MID 80S OF NEXT WEEK`S MAX TEMPS WILL GIVE MUCH
RELIEF. FCSTED TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO CLIMO, AN INDICATION OF HOW
WARM AND DRY WE HAVE BEEN.
Have a great day. Capitalism comes calling early today.
I agree, nrti.
It could be a case of the remnants of 95L help fire up low #2 which then tracks north based on the Euro.
More of a defined split in time on the 6z GFS between 95L and low #2.
Too bad I live in one of those areas, I am just looking for peace of mind Link
Help me out MLB NWS:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
411 AM EDT THU SEP 23 2010
THE FORECAST FOR WED-THU CONTINUES TO BE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE. THE
00Z RUN OF THE GFS AND ECMWF DRIFT A TROPICAL SYSTEM OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND INTO FLORIDA ON THU. I HAVE FOLLOWED THE
MODELS HANDLING OF THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM FOR MORE THAN 10 DAYS AND
HAVE SEEN ALL KINDS OF SOLUTIONS. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE IS
NO WAY TO HANG YOUR HAT ON ANY ONE MODEL OR SOLUTION WHEN THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM HAS NOT EVEN FORMED YET. OFTEN THESE KINDS OF
SYSTEMS HANG OUT IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN FOR AWHILE BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH. THEREFORE WILL FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF MOIST
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND KEEP POPS AT 40 PERCENT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...UNTIL THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND THE MODELS GET A BETTER
HANDLE ON THINGS.
Link
Looks like a protective shield for the northern GOM.
Sorry Ike, but that is funny.
So basically, if you live in the Caribbean.
A STRONG RIDGE OF WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP WITH
STEERING FLOW THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN...DRIVING AN AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER TO THE WEST. THE MOISTURE AROUND THIS AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER IS INCREASING AND MOVING TOWARD THE AREA AS DEPICTED BY CIMSS
MIMIC DERIVED PWATS. DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL LEAVE THE CATEGORICAL POPS IN FOR TODAY AND CHANCE
FOR TONIGHT. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXTENDING ONTO THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL STATES...WILL BE PUSHED
EASTWARD BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE NORTHERN
CENTRAL PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. AS THE SURFACE LOW SPINS UP OVER NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE MEAN
FLOW SATURDAY. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE STEERING FLOW ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA SLIGHTLY...AND MORE APPRECIABLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THIS
WEAKER FLOW MAY OFFER A BETTER CHANCE FOR A TROPICAL LOW TO BEGIN TO
DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SATURDAY.
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