Igor delivers punishing blow to Newfoundland; 95L growing more organized
Hurricane Igor delivered a punishing blow to Newfoundland Canada, which suffered one of its worst poundings by a hurricane in the past century. Igor made it all the way to southeast Newfoundland yesterday as a Category 1 hurricane, bringing a peak wind gust of 107 mph to Cape Pine in Southeast Newfoundland. Igor brought sustained winds of 58 mph, gusting to 85 mph, to Newfoundland's capital, St John's. The city recorded a remarkably low pressure of 958 mb, and picked up 3.99" of rain during Igor's passage. Widespread rain amounts of 5 - 9 inches fell over much of southeast Newfoundland's rocky terrain, which is unable to absorb so much water. The resulting severe flooding washed out hundreds of roads, collapsed several major bridges, and forced numerous rescues of people trapped on the second stories of their homes by flood waters. Igor generated swells of 6 - 8 meters (20 - 26 feet) that pounded the southern coast of Newfoundland last night and this morning; significant wave heights reached 39 feet at the Newfoundland Grand Banks Buoy, and a storm surge of a meters (3.28 feet) hit the northeast shores of Newfoundland last night. Igor is now a large and powerful extratropical storm off Greenland and Labrador, and continues to generate hurricane force winds over water--winds at Angisoq, Greenland were sustained at 66 mph this morning.
It is not that unusual for hurricanes to penetrate as far north as Newfoundland's latitude; over 40 hurricanes have done so. The last time this occurred was in 2003, when Hurricane Fabian made it to latitude 48.7°N as a hurricane. The all time record is held by Hurricane Faith of 1966, which followed the Gulf Stream and maintained hurricane status all the way north to latitude 61.1°N, just off the coast of Norway.
Figure 1. Little Barsway bridge 10 km north of Grand Bank, Newfoundland, after floodwaters from Hurricane Igor swept it away. Image credit: George J.B. Rose.
Figure 2. Hurricane Igor at 11:47am EDT on Wednesday, September 21, as it pounded Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: Environment Canada.
Figure 3. Video of impressive flooding on Newfoundland's Burin Peninsula, whose 20,000 residents were cut off from the rest of the province by flooded roads and closed bridges.
Dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L growing more organized
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) moving westward at 15 mph though the south-central Caribbean is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the northern coast of Venezuela and the islands of Curacao, Aruba, and Bonaire this morning. A wind gust of 38 mph was recorded at Curacao last night. Radar from Curacao and satellite loops show that 95L's thunderstorms have a pronounced rotation, with a center of circulation located just off the coast of South America. Thunderstorm activity is fairly limited, but is slowly increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Wind shear over the Caribbean is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the rest of the week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I'd put the odds higher, at 70%. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon.
The wave should continue moving westward near 15 mph through Friday afternoon, when it will arrive near the northern coast of Nicaragua. Most of the models show some development of 95L by Thursday or Friday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains to the Netherlands Antilles Islands and north coast of South America on today and Thursday as passes to the north. Heavy rains may also spread to Southwest Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday, and the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Honduras, and Nicaragua on Friday. When 95L moves over or just north of Honduras on Saturday, a trough of low pressure diving southwards over the Eastern U.S. will weaken the steering currents over the Western Caribbean and cause 95L to turn more to the northwest and slow. If the center of 95L remains over water, the storm could easily develop into powerful and dangerous Hurricane Matthew over the Western Caribbean early next week. Even if the center stays over land, the circulation of the storm may be capable of generating dangerous flooding rains over Central America. Steering currents will be weak over the Western Caribbean through the middle of next week, and 95L may spend up to a week over the Western Caribbean, drenching the region with very heavy rains. Another possibility is that the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. will be strong enough to draw 95L northwards across western Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico 6 - 8 days from now. This solution is not being emphasized as much in today's model's runs as yesterday's, and the danger to the U.S. is uncertain at this point.
Figure 4. Morning satellite image of 95L.
Tropical Storm Lisa
Tropical Storm Lisa continues to churn the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. By Friday night, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa. The high shear may be capable of destroying the storm by early next week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.
Georgette headed towards Arizona
Tropical Depression Georgette hit the tip of Baja California as a weak tropical storm with 40 mph winds yesterday, but dropped little rain. Georgette is in the Gulf of California, headed northwards, and could bring heavy rains to Arizona on Thursday.
Hurricane Karl's aftermath
Mexico continues to clean up from Hurricane Karl, which made landfall last Friday in Veracruz state as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Karl dumped approximately one foot of rain in the Sierra Madre Oriental Mountains, which cause some rivers to rise to unprecedented levels. The death toll from Karl's flooding and mudslides stands at 16, and ten of thousands remain in shelters after being displaced from their flooded homes. Insurance company AIR Worldwide is estimating insured losses at $100 - $200 million. Actual damage is estimated to be as much as $3.9 billion, since insurance take-up rates are low in Mexico. Karl is the second billion-dollar hurricane to hit Mexico this year; in June, Hurricane Alex hit just south of the Texas border as a Category 2 storm, killing 51 and doing $1.9 billion in damage.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model predicts a new tropical depression might develop in the Central Caribbean about seven days from now. The NOGAPS model predicts a new tropical depression will form off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.
My next post will be Thursday morning.
Jeff Masters
A buoy is left stranded on the beach from the storm waves of Hurricane Igor...
Reader Comments
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WTNT44 KNHC 230836
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142010
500 AM AST THU SEP 23 2010
THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF LISA HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS. BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUE TO FORM PRIMARILY
NORTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER BUT GENERALLY LACK MUCH
ORGANIZATION. THE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH LISA HAS ALSO BECOME
MORE ASYMMETRIC DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS AND SEEMS PARTIALLY
INVOLVED WITH A SHARP MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED NORTHEAST
OF THE CYCLONE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB AT 0600 UTC HAVE
DECREASED TO 1.5 AND 2.5...RESPECTIVELY. BASED UPON THESE
ESTIMATES AND DATA FROM AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KT. AS LISA ESCAPES THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NEARBY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...THE
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MINOR RE-INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK ARE MARGINALLY WARM...THE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT IS NOT
ESPECIALLY HIGH...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER A SOMEWHAT
STABLE ENVIRONMENT. BEYOND 48 HOURS...WESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH A NEW UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING TO THE NORTHWEST OF LISA IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AND RESULT IN WEAKENING WHICH
COULD OCCUR FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWERED TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS AND IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SHIPS/LGEM OUTPUT.
LISA HAS CONTINUED MOVING EASTWARD IN A WEAK WESTERLY STEERING
FLOW...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 090/04. AS THE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IMPARTING THIS MOTION LIFTS OUT DURING THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
NORTH OF LISA WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL NORTHWESTWARD TURN
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE GFDL/
HWRF CONTINUE TO BE RIGHT OUTLIERS AS A RESULT OF WEAKER RIDGING.
THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND IS LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...DOWNPLAYING THE
CONTRIBUTION OF THE GFDL/HWRF.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/0900Z 17.7N 29.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 23/1800Z 18.1N 29.0W 30 KT
24HR VT 24/0600Z 18.5N 29.6W 35 KT
36HR VT 24/1800Z 19.1N 30.3W 40 KT
48HR VT 25/0600Z 20.0N 31.0W 40 KT
72HR VT 26/0600Z 21.5N 32.5W 40 KT
96HR VT 27/0600Z 23.5N 35.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 28/0600Z 26.0N 38.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
as you all have said, finding its center of circulation and strengthening.
GFS run is most ominous as well. With that scenario Matthew may hook northeast and then meander off the florida east coast before hooking back west. From what I can tell experts have low confidence. Difficult storm to track seven days out.
Vorticity is impressive.
95L is getting itself together. Thing is keeping me awake.
Aye. That's why I generally try and get the people here to stop focusing on long-range forecast tracks. It can be difficult not to worry, I know, but worrying doesn't change anything. And speculating is pretty useless when uncertainty is this high.
I am going to try to go back to sleep.
It may take just a few hours to get to TD though.
Seven days out is even harder to 'track' when it has yet to actually develop.
Give it a few more days and things will come together a bit.
And that is the main problem, a La Nina year typically has weak troughs which in turn calls for a warmer South colder North. The GFS usually overdoes troughs (It is the nature of the actual model, why it does that, I don't know). There is also climatology at play. Deep troughs that go all the way down to the Gulf Coast are late October and early November periods according to climatology. At least in this area (FWB, FL), the first cool day happens around Halloween. That is why when I see such a deep trough coming down, I have to be skeptical of that.
Uncertain, yes. But still, the GFS has been consistent. I read the cut off low is suppose to stick around over Arkansas for quite a while, allowing Matthew to travel towards the north longer. Not just a dip and exiting trough scenario.
Nice discussion on the trough. For sure the trough is acting as a texas shield.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ALL THE 00 UTC GLOBAL GUIDANCE FORECAST A LARGE CUTOFF 500 MB LOW TO
DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE DIFFERENCE IS IN THE DETAILS. THE GFS AND ITS
ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST THIS LOW FARTHER SOUTH (OVER THE GULF COAST
STATES) AND TAKE THIS LOW SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
ECMWF AND GEM HAVE THE LOW CENTERED FARTHER NORTH...AND NOT QUITE AS
CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN WESTERLIES (NO RETROGRADING). THUS THE
GFS/ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEP OUR AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR LONGER...AHEAD OF
A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE ECMWF/GEM BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR REGION BY MID WEEK. THE GFS/ENSEMBLE MEAN ALSO FORECAST A LARGE
TROPICAL CYCLONE (YET TO DEVELOP) TO MOVE INTO NORTH FL BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A WET AND WINDY WEATHER EVENT
FOR US. WHILE THE ECMWF/GEM ALSO DEVELOP A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEIR SOLUTION (WITH THE 500
MB TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM FARTHER EAST) SHEARS THE
CYCLONE OUT SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS MID
LATITUDE WEATHER SO FAR SOUTH (INCLUDING A BAROCLINIC
ZONE...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND VERY DRY AIR ALOFT)...IT SEEMS
UNLIKELY THAT THE GFS SOLUTION OF AN INCREASINGLY-TROPICAL CYCLONE
WILL VERIFY (AS THE GFS FORECAST CYCLONE PHASE DIAGRAM FROM FSU
INDICATES). WE WOULD EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO BECOME LESS WARM CORE AND
SYMMETRICAL AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBER SPREAD IS
ABOUT AS LARGE AS IT GETS...INDICATING A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
THIS FORECAST. WE OPTED TO GO WITH THE 12 UTC WEDNESDAY ECMWF/GEM
SOLUTION...BRINGING THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION BY
EARLY TO MID WEEK...BUT KEEPING A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED MOISTURE BAND
OVER OUR EASTERNMOST ZONES (WHERE THERE WILL REMAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN). WE EXPECT MORE CHANGES WILL HAVE TO BE MADE TO THIS
FORECAST WITH EACH MODEL CYCLE...AS SMALL CHANGES IN TIMING AND
POSITIONING OF THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE LARGE IMPACTS ON OUR
VARIOUS FORECAST PARAMETERS. IN FACT...EVEN THOUGH THE 00 UTC ECMWF
WAS SIMILAR TO ITS PREVIOUS RUN (WHICH WE USED FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE)...THERE ARE ALREADY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN OUR
WIND/DEWPOINT/POP FORECAST. THIS IS AN UNUSUALLY LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST.
Unusually low confidence forecast = many sleepless nights ahead.
Yes, that upper low will be the key player in this, both in terms of track and intensity.
No tropical storm in the Atlantic! Been a while.
The 00z GFS is looking a bit more likely with it not spinning 7 storms at once, though the 2nd seems to be a split of the first... which doesn't make much sense either.
The Euro's hard to tell whether it's a different storm going north or not.
430 AM CDT THU SEP 23 2010
.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH FRI THEN WILL WEAKEN SAT AND SUN AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN U.S. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE FAR NW GULF LATE SUN REACHING TO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS
LATE MON. A WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE FAR SW GULF THROUGH
THE PERIOD. AN AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL
MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN THEN WILL LINGER IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH MON.
...........................................
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT THU SEP 23 2010
.SYNOPSIS...A 1007 MB AREA OF LOW PRES NEAR 13N73W ALONG A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO THE W
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND THU...POSSIBLY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
APPROACHING CENTRAL AMERICA FRI AND SAT. THE LOW WILL THEN
LINGER IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUN
AND MON. EASTERLY TRADES WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
Pretty unanimous among models. Storm will stall north of Honduras.
Final image
Up early.... got waves on the mind....
TrauamaBoy -- what did you pay? roundbale? Flakes?
Bahia Seed is off the wall !!! - the drought is nasty.
FL is okay this year with hay & roundbales this year -- last year there were bidding wars
Too, the NHC expects Lisa to turn back into a minimal TS for a couple of days, though they don't sound particularly confident in that given her environment. FWIW, Lisa is as of now the third least energetic storm this season in terms of ACE; only Gaston and Bonnie gathered less.
Ex-Julia is still keeping up a bit of convection and swirl, and is s-l-o-w-l-y meandering down into the MDR, though I seriously doubt she'll make it far enough south to hit any life-sustaining warmth. Too bad; she's trying so hard... ;-)
Not sure about Matthew himself, but TD15 might surface later tonight. It was always key for him to move beyond 75W, which it'll do later on (I suppose gender cannot be given to invests?)
Btw Nea, you do have somewhat of a Jeremy Irons complexion about you...
: ) Weather & cafe' ...... greeting the daybreak
fun crew
And the mornings love you back, I'm sure!
Mornin' Surfie - is it yet sunrise over there?
Did you see my extended post on the earlier period storms you were looking for (Gulf Coast homebrew majors from late Sept) yesterday?
Track will shift NW and with all the moisture in the carribean he will become a big storm heading for the GOM.
Keep safe.
#432, p. 5
I feel confident defining invests by gender...but I'll keep that to myself. ;-) Still, I don't think TD15 will wait until tonight to be birthed; I expect a renum within a few hours.
Jeremy Irons, huh? He's quite a bit older than I am, though he's much more suave, plus he has that whole British accent thing going. Well, I suppose I've been called worse. FWIW, you look just like an ultra-low prerssure area just SE of Iceland... ;-)
Haha, touché!
(Though, the whole Brit accent thing is overrated; trust me, I know...)
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