Igor delivers punishing blow to Newfoundland; 95L growing more organized
Hurricane Igor delivered a punishing blow to Newfoundland Canada, which suffered one of its worst poundings by a hurricane in the past century. Igor made it all the way to southeast Newfoundland yesterday as a Category 1 hurricane, bringing a peak wind gust of 107 mph to Cape Pine in Southeast Newfoundland. Igor brought sustained winds of 58 mph, gusting to 85 mph, to Newfoundland's capital, St John's. The city recorded a remarkably low pressure of 958 mb, and picked up 3.99" of rain during Igor's passage. Widespread rain amounts of 5 - 9 inches fell over much of southeast Newfoundland's rocky terrain, which is unable to absorb so much water. The resulting severe flooding washed out hundreds of roads, collapsed several major bridges, and forced numerous rescues of people trapped on the second stories of their homes by flood waters. Igor generated swells of 6 - 8 meters (20 - 26 feet) that pounded the southern coast of Newfoundland last night and this morning; significant wave heights reached 39 feet at the Newfoundland Grand Banks Buoy, and a storm surge of a meters (3.28 feet) hit the northeast shores of Newfoundland last night. Igor is now a large and powerful extratropical storm off Greenland and Labrador, and continues to generate hurricane force winds over water--winds at Angisoq, Greenland were sustained at 66 mph this morning.
It is not that unusual for hurricanes to penetrate as far north as Newfoundland's latitude; over 40 hurricanes have done so. The last time this occurred was in 2003, when Hurricane Fabian made it to latitude 48.7°N as a hurricane. The all time record is held by Hurricane Faith of 1966, which followed the Gulf Stream and maintained hurricane status all the way north to latitude 61.1°N, just off the coast of Norway.
Figure 1. Little Barsway bridge 10 km north of Grand Bank, Newfoundland, after floodwaters from Hurricane Igor swept it away. Image credit: George J.B. Rose.
Figure 2. Hurricane Igor at 11:47am EDT on Wednesday, September 21, as it pounded Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: Environment Canada.
Figure 3. Video of impressive flooding on Newfoundland's Burin Peninsula, whose 20,000 residents were cut off from the rest of the province by flooded roads and closed bridges.
Dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L growing more organized
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) moving westward at 15 mph though the south-central Caribbean is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the northern coast of Venezuela and the islands of Curacao, Aruba, and Bonaire this morning. A wind gust of 38 mph was recorded at Curacao last night. Radar from Curacao and satellite loops show that 95L's thunderstorms have a pronounced rotation, with a center of circulation located just off the coast of South America. Thunderstorm activity is fairly limited, but is slowly increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Wind shear over the Caribbean is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the rest of the week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I'd put the odds higher, at 70%. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon.
The wave should continue moving westward near 15 mph through Friday afternoon, when it will arrive near the northern coast of Nicaragua. Most of the models show some development of 95L by Thursday or Friday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains to the Netherlands Antilles Islands and north coast of South America on today and Thursday as passes to the north. Heavy rains may also spread to Southwest Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday, and the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Honduras, and Nicaragua on Friday. When 95L moves over or just north of Honduras on Saturday, a trough of low pressure diving southwards over the Eastern U.S. will weaken the steering currents over the Western Caribbean and cause 95L to turn more to the northwest and slow. If the center of 95L remains over water, the storm could easily develop into powerful and dangerous Hurricane Matthew over the Western Caribbean early next week. Even if the center stays over land, the circulation of the storm may be capable of generating dangerous flooding rains over Central America. Steering currents will be weak over the Western Caribbean through the middle of next week, and 95L may spend up to a week over the Western Caribbean, drenching the region with very heavy rains. Another possibility is that the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. will be strong enough to draw 95L northwards across western Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico 6 - 8 days from now. This solution is not being emphasized as much in today's model's runs as yesterday's, and the danger to the U.S. is uncertain at this point.
Figure 4. Morning satellite image of 95L.
Tropical Storm Lisa
Tropical Storm Lisa continues to churn the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. By Friday night, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa. The high shear may be capable of destroying the storm by early next week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.
Georgette headed towards Arizona
Tropical Depression Georgette hit the tip of Baja California as a weak tropical storm with 40 mph winds yesterday, but dropped little rain. Georgette is in the Gulf of California, headed northwards, and could bring heavy rains to Arizona on Thursday.
Hurricane Karl's aftermath
Mexico continues to clean up from Hurricane Karl, which made landfall last Friday in Veracruz state as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Karl dumped approximately one foot of rain in the Sierra Madre Oriental Mountains, which cause some rivers to rise to unprecedented levels. The death toll from Karl's flooding and mudslides stands at 16, and ten of thousands remain in shelters after being displaced from their flooded homes. Insurance company AIR Worldwide is estimating insured losses at $100 - $200 million. Actual damage is estimated to be as much as $3.9 billion, since insurance take-up rates are low in Mexico. Karl is the second billion-dollar hurricane to hit Mexico this year; in June, Hurricane Alex hit just south of the Texas border as a Category 2 storm, killing 51 and doing $1.9 billion in damage.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model predicts a new tropical depression might develop in the Central Caribbean about seven days from now. The NOGAPS model predicts a new tropical depression will form off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.
My next post will be Thursday morning.
Jeff Masters
A buoy is left stranded on the beach from the storm waves of Hurricane Igor...
Reader Comments
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Yes, the ensemble is a "cluster" of forecasts that gives a picture of how the "operative" forecast would be affected if a number of the factors that go into determining track path were individually moved one way or the other by a bit.
In general, the tighter the cluster (ensemble), the more attention you should pay to the model ... because it steers the storm the same way even when things are moved around a bit on model initialization. A wide spread in the ensemble members suggests that too many things that make a difference in the path of the storm are sensitive to minor errors ... so the primary forecast of that model (e.g. GFS) is subject to considerable uncertainty.
I think they canceled
21Sep 09pmGMT - - 23.3n109.9w - - 40mph - - 1000mb - - #3
22Sep 12amGMT - - 24.0n110.0w - - 35mph - - 1000mb - - #3A
22Sep 03amGMT - - 24.6n110.3w - - 35mph - - 1000mb - - #4
22Sep 06amGMT - - 25.3n110.4w - - 35mph - - 1000mb - - NHC.Adv.#4A
22Sep 09amGMT - - 25.8n110.7w - - 35mph - - 1000mb - - #5
22Sep 12pmGMT - - 26.1n110.8w - - 35mph - - 1000mb - - #5A
22Sep 03pmGMT - - 26.8n111.0w - - 35mph - - 1000mb - - #6
22Sep 06pmGMT - - 27.6n111.3w - - 35mph - - 1000mb - - #6A
22Sep 09pmGMT - - 28.0n111.1w - - 35mph - - 1002mb - - #7
Copy &paste 23.3n109.9w, 24.0n110.0w, 24.6n110.3w, 25.3n110.4w, 25.8n110.7w-26.1n110.8w, 26.1n110.8w-26.8n111.0w, 26.8n111.0w-27.6n111.3w, 27.6n111.3w-28.0n111.1w, gym into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12*hours.
THE MAIN CONCERN IS WITH A TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT IS LIKELY TO
FORM IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL TO WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. THE LONGER TERM PATTERN AND THE ECMWF MODEL FAVOR A
LOW MOVING SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA REACHING
NEAR WESTERN CUBA NEXT WEDNESDAY.
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION SHOULD REMAIN PROTECTED FROM ANY
TROPICAL SYSTEM DUE TO A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED
TO SET UP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE
BEST CHANCE ON SUNDAY.
DRIER/LESS HUMID AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT...IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT. HAVE DISCOUNTED THE 12Z GFS MODEL RUN TODAY WHICH IS A
SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHWEST OUTLIER WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AND TOO
SLOW PUSHING THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE. 22/TD
098
NOUS42 KNHC 221500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT WED 22 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-114
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARRIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 23/1500Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 23/1245Z
D. 13.0N 74.0W
E. 23/1430Z TO 23/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT
24/1200Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS:
A.AIR FORCE MISSIONS SCHEDULED FOR 22/18Z AND 23/06Z
AND 12Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 22/1245Z.
B.THE NOAA G-IV MAY FLY AN 8 HR RESEARCH MISSION INTO
THE SAME AREA TOMORROW DEPARTING AT 23/1730Z AND
OPERATING 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
C.NASA'S GOLBAL HAWK WILL FLY A 26 HR MISSION INTO THIS
AREA DEPARTING 23/1500Z. OPERATING FL 580-650.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
Some do, some don't. Too early to really know what (Matthew) is going to do.
Yep. It needs about 24 more hours to get away from the influences of SA and he should be ready to go.
yes they canceled cause they had equipment problems
I don't have anyone on my ignore list and think it is silly to poof people you don't want to read and expect others to know this.
I paid to join this blog a week ago and it has gone to "rats" since then.
I'm really disappointed. I know some suspensions/bans have been necessary, but why is everyone pushing so hard at each other?
There are fewer and fewer people willing to stick their necks out now and post anything which differs mildly from the NHC because of what it seems is a cult of "disagreecasting".
Take a look at the last 200 posts... how many people in any way qualified or learned enough to post a forecast have dared? 3 maybe 4? and yet the moment any of them posts, they are shot down.
S----W has gone, we may or may not ever know the full circumstances but he was getting more angstridden each day last week whatever or whoever was to blame.
samwambam goes tonight.
Reed is under constant attack.
Levi only escapes because he mainly only posts vids and doesnt interact as much with the blog (thank the lord for college).
So without any forecasters, we would be left with only discussion about how great the NHC forecast , which to be honest wouldn't do it for me or many of you.
As for the visible 'poofing' it's worse than first grade. Even you Taz, who I respect for your alternate/leftfield opinions and dedication to bringing new info to theb blog, which they are, have little tolerance for those who would dare even debate with you.
Destin jeff, there should be room on a blog like this for your humour, as a variety act to the main performance. No complaints.
Do WU do refunds? Because this is turning into crass, childish bickering worth nothing more than me turning and walking along with many of the conscientious uberlurkers paying their $10 a year to keep this site alive?
YOU ARE KILLING THE SITE, WHAT WILL YOU DO WITH YOUR EMPTY LIVES WHEN IT'S GONE???
i thot it was cause of no development. Didnt hear that interesting
I think so. Too cloudy down there. Bad day for flying.
123 jinx buy me a drink!
Lol!
lol i see
95L continues to be in close proximity (< 1 degree) to land, as it has been all day. This is going to change as the system tracks Wly beyond the peninsula which forms the western border to the Gulf of Venezuela. Night fall's coming, convection will be winding down, "night, night" 95L. See you tomorrow!
We'll wake up with the system further away from the Venezuelan/Colombian border, churning up trouble over extreme SSTs. Note the graphic below, this represents the 26 degree isotherm depicting it at depths well beyond 100m within the projected path.
This will be 95L's first experience sucking in that steamy water without interference from the land.
(Note the relatively shallower isotherm levels through it's historical track near the coast of Venezuela.)
The dry air is retreating, sheer tendency is declining in it's path, but remains strong enough to hold rapid developement at bay. Prognosis: 80% probability of a TD by 2000 UTC, followed by gradual intensification and 50% probabilty of becoming a TS within 24Hrs of TD classification. In other words, we're going to sit here and watch the grass grow for a couple days.
I'm not touching models or paths beyond saying that if you live in Central America, think "Mitch" and find somewhere dry. It's probably going to get ugly for you.
The rest of you can bicker on, but nothing's changing tonight for 95L and I have better things to do with my time. My suggestion is to search for another blog to express yourselves. Search for a "Days of Our Lives" blog, or something like that! Peace, Out...
Hey SJ,
On Shortwave the "COC" might be located between 70-71W and 13N. Do you concur?
Link
Nice, thanks! Glad to see you around. Fascinating to watch the tropics, as usual (the blog sometimes not so much).
Which NWS office is that AFD from?? New Orleans/Baton Rouge?? Mobile?? Tallahassee??
Anthony
Karl was strong enough to make over the Yucatan and still left reminants over SE texas-is it too early to know where it will go?
I'll ask another question-which model did the best with Karl since it developed in that region-I'm curious....thanks in advance!
Great - what I was waiting for all day...thanks!
Maybe...Maybe a little N of there. We did just get a new microwave pass, but it is still hard to tell.
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