A rare triple threat: three simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes
For the first time in twelve years, we have a rare triple threat in the Atlantic--three simultaneous hurricanes. Hurricane Karl joined Hurricanes Igor and Julia in the steadily expanding Hurricanes of 2010 club this morning, becoming the sixth hurricane of the season. The last time we had three simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic was in 1998. That year also had four simultaneous hurricanes--Georges, Ivan, Jeanne and Karl--for a brief time on September 25. There has been just one other case of four simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes, on August 22, 1893. According to Phil Klotzbach at Colorado State, three simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes is a rare phenomena, having occurred only eight other times since 1851. The other years were 1893, 1926, 1950, 1961, 1967, 1980, 1995, and 1998.
Figure 1. Triple trouble: From left to right, Hurricanes Karl, Igor, and Julia roil the Atlantic. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Karl
Hurricane Karl continues to intensify. The latest Hurricane Hunter flight, flying at 12,000 feet, found flight level winds of 95 mph. This suggests surface winds of 85 mph, though the top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument were about 80 mph. Mexican radar out of Alvarado shows the outer spirals bands of Karl are dumping heavy rains on the Mexican coast along the Bay of Campeche.
Figure 2. Afternoon radar image from the Alvarado, Mexico radar. The eye of Karl is visible in the upper right, and rain bands are affecting the coast to the east of the radar site. Image credit: Mexican Weather Service..
Forecast for Karl
Conditions for intensification are ideal in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, with wind shear expected to be low, 5 - 10 knots, SSTs warm, 29°C - 30°C, and the atmosphere very moist. These conditions, combined with the topography of the surrounding coast which tends to enhance counter-clockwise flow, should allow Karl to intensify into Category 2 hurricane before making landfall between Tampico and Vercruz, Mexico Friday afternoon. Karl is a small storm, and is unlikely to bring any rain or wind to Texas.
Igor
The Air Force Hurricane Hunters made their first foray into Hurricane Igor this afternoon, and found a high-end Category 3 storm, with a central pressure of 940 mb and top winds at 10,000 feet of 150 mph. The southwest portion of the eyewall was open, so Igor has the potential to intensify once again if it can close off the gap. There are no major changes to the track or intensify forecast for Igor in the latest set of model runs. Igor is expected to remain a major hurricane for the next two days, and is headed northwest at 7 mph. This motion will carry the core of the hurricane close to NOAA buoy 41044 between 9 - 11 pm EDT tonight. Top winds at the buoy so far today have been 65 mph, gusting to 81 mph, with a significant wave height of 38 feet (the significant wave height is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves.)
Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model develops a new tropical depression a few hundred miles off the coast of Africa 2 - 4 days from now. The GFS is suggesting the eastern Caribbean could see a tropical depression 6 - 7 days from now.
I'll have an update Friday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I think the eye will become more pronounced in the next 6-12 hours.
Karl is an impressive small and compact cyclone and it is sucking in all of that high heat content in the BOC.
One tornado in Ohio.
thanks for the link!
Thanks Taz for letting us know what he had to say about 2005!
Link
Here's a link to a constantly updated bunch of photos purportedly showing damage from today's NYC tornado. There's one image of a supposed funnel cloud (near the Statute of Liberty) being retweeted all over, but since there's only the one pic, I wouldn't trust it...yet. Otherwise, the damage could be a low-end tornado, or straight-line winds...
Either the mainstream news hasn't caught on or they don't care. Some reason the link posted earlier doesn't work for me.
I am glad that residents are starting to pay attention. I hit Gorhams yesterday. I looks like I missed the madness! I think we are gonna take some serious licks. Stay safe.
The eye is coming into focus now.
2010: 11-6-4
2009: 6-2-2
2008: 10-5-3
2007: 9-3-2
2006: 8-4-2
2005: 15-8-5
2004: 11-8-6
2003: 9-2-2
2002: 9-2-1
2001: 7-3-2
2000: 8-3-1
In Bold are the seasons ahead of 2010 in terms of NAMED STORMS
I suspect the waves will affect the wind measurements as well especially when that buoy is in the trough ...
Wow! We have lake-effect, Colorado Lows and cool air in S. Ontario, and thunderstorms and tornadoes in the northeastern US. Looks like the pattern is setting up for winter storms this year to give us more snow than rain while tracking over our location, as the jet stream has shifted farther east than expected.
4 more storms until we are at 2005. That is a scary fact.
Not as many people will be affected. Major Hurricane has nothing to do with the damage it may wrought but it's strength.
Looks like a typical Igor profile to me.
True and looks like a someone tried to blow his brains out right above his ear! Weird!! Great observation.
highest steering layer:
The gap is closing.
But in this one it is very obvious still.
thank goodness it does not look like Elvis 8>)
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