A rare triple threat: three simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes
For the first time in twelve years, we have a rare triple threat in the Atlantic--three simultaneous hurricanes. Hurricane Karl joined Hurricanes Igor and Julia in the steadily expanding Hurricanes of 2010 club this morning, becoming the sixth hurricane of the season. The last time we had three simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic was in 1998. That year also had four simultaneous hurricanes--Georges, Ivan, Jeanne and Karl--for a brief time on September 25. There has been just one other case of four simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes, on August 22, 1893. According to Phil Klotzbach at Colorado State, three simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes is a rare phenomena, having occurred only eight other times since 1851. The other years were 1893, 1926, 1950, 1961, 1967, 1980, 1995, and 1998.
Figure 1. Triple trouble: From left to right, Hurricanes Karl, Igor, and Julia roil the Atlantic. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Karl
Hurricane Karl continues to intensify. The latest Hurricane Hunter flight, flying at 12,000 feet, found flight level winds of 95 mph. This suggests surface winds of 85 mph, though the top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument were about 80 mph. Mexican radar out of Alvarado shows the outer spirals bands of Karl are dumping heavy rains on the Mexican coast along the Bay of Campeche.
Figure 2. Afternoon radar image from the Alvarado, Mexico radar. The eye of Karl is visible in the upper right, and rain bands are affecting the coast to the east of the radar site. Image credit: Mexican Weather Service..
Forecast for Karl
Conditions for intensification are ideal in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, with wind shear expected to be low, 5 - 10 knots, SSTs warm, 29°C - 30°C, and the atmosphere very moist. These conditions, combined with the topography of the surrounding coast which tends to enhance counter-clockwise flow, should allow Karl to intensify into Category 2 hurricane before making landfall between Tampico and Vercruz, Mexico Friday afternoon. Karl is a small storm, and is unlikely to bring any rain or wind to Texas.
Igor
The Air Force Hurricane Hunters made their first foray into Hurricane Igor this afternoon, and found a high-end Category 3 storm, with a central pressure of 940 mb and top winds at 10,000 feet of 150 mph. The southwest portion of the eyewall was open, so Igor has the potential to intensify once again if it can close off the gap. There are no major changes to the track or intensify forecast for Igor in the latest set of model runs. Igor is expected to remain a major hurricane for the next two days, and is headed northwest at 7 mph. This motion will carry the core of the hurricane close to NOAA buoy 41044 between 9 - 11 pm EDT tonight. Top winds at the buoy so far today have been 65 mph, gusting to 81 mph, with a significant wave height of 38 feet (the significant wave height is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves.)
Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model develops a new tropical depression a few hundred miles off the coast of Africa 2 - 4 days from now. The GFS is suggesting the eastern Caribbean could see a tropical depression 6 - 7 days from now.
I'll have an update Friday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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URNT12 KNHC 171156
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL132010
A. 17/11:45:00Z
B. 19 deg 35 min N
095 deg 32 min W
C. 700 mb 2717 m
D. 99 kt
E. 047 deg 6 nm
F. 135 deg 87 kt
G. 047 deg 6 nm
H. 957 mb
I. 12 C / 3027 m
J. 17 C / 3045 m
K. 13 C / NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C8
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF301 0513A KARL OB 04
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 92 KT SW QUAD 11:48:20Z
Thats what i'm seeing
Correct, it was a trick question.
It would be the first ever time in recorded history (if Karl makes it).
img src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/aa/Mexico_topo.jpg"
When both Alex and Hermine this year made landfall, they slowed down significantly due to the mountanous terrain ahead. It seemed that the mountains were pushing them back and giving them extra time to strengthen, which Alex took to the extreme, going from a TS to a large cat. 2.
img src="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT13/refresh/AL1310W5_NL_sm2+gif/083413W5_NL_sm.gif"
Karl, however, is much smaller. It could strengthen to a cat. 4, and is expected to make landfall almost directly on the City of Veracruz. The ridge of mountains likely to be just to the north of Karl could keep the main storm stalled while the system veers to the south, continuously lashing the area with heavy rains. If this occurs, either the land interaction will weaken the system prior to landfall, or the extra time over water may even give it enough energy for a transition to a cat. 5, which would be ironic as possibly the only cat. 5 of the season. Now, I wonder if it'll attempt a Tehuantepec crossing into the Epac, as the storm leaves behind a low-pressure area in the BoC, forcing the main storm south across a shorter distance?
He took in a ton of dry air. Eye isn't even visible right now....looks like he was out late last night enjoying the high life. Bermuda hopes he tries to sleep it off.
(Some reason, I glazed over that).
Terrain of Mexico:
Track:
Splash Location: 19.58N 95.55W
Splash Time: 11:49Z
958mb (Surface) 210° (from the SSW) 19 knots (22 mph)
"I bet most of the people don't even know it's coming".
Hey salt, how's it going?
Thanks for the link instant bookmark
Hey breald. Going fine as long as the creek dont rise and the beer dosn't run out. I work graveyard so ....
Look out...
It looks as if it will make landfall north of Veracruz.
It's in open trial now and free for 21 days after that it's $15 a month. I hope to have a mini review of GR Earth out on Monday along with a review on some of the more popular Iphone weather apps
Well it would be hard to miss right now:
WIND...WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR IMMINENT...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
lol. Good deal.
That one is probably headed to the north ATL.
Western Caribbean and southern GOM are the northern GOM's threat area for originating.
Just got electricity back, after a Lightening storm overhead at 2:00 am that went on for an hour. Pretty exciting light-show.
Reminded me of those 2:00 am's under the Strobes in the Disco......
3/4" of rain. Still overcast. Damp and Dank this morning.
Viewing: 2101 - 2151
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