A rare triple threat: three simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes
For the first time in twelve years, we have a rare triple threat in the Atlantic--three simultaneous hurricanes. Hurricane Karl joined Hurricanes Igor and Julia in the steadily expanding Hurricanes of 2010 club this morning, becoming the sixth hurricane of the season. The last time we had three simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic was in 1998. That year also had four simultaneous hurricanes--Georges, Ivan, Jeanne and Karl--for a brief time on September 25. There has been just one other case of four simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes, on August 22, 1893. According to Phil Klotzbach at Colorado State, three simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes is a rare phenomena, having occurred only eight other times since 1851. The other years were 1893, 1926, 1950, 1961, 1967, 1980, 1995, and 1998.
Figure 1. Triple trouble: From left to right, Hurricanes Karl, Igor, and Julia roil the Atlantic. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Karl
Hurricane Karl continues to intensify. The latest Hurricane Hunter flight, flying at 12,000 feet, found flight level winds of 95 mph. This suggests surface winds of 85 mph, though the top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument were about 80 mph. Mexican radar out of Alvarado shows the outer spirals bands of Karl are dumping heavy rains on the Mexican coast along the Bay of Campeche.
Figure 2. Afternoon radar image from the Alvarado, Mexico radar. The eye of Karl is visible in the upper right, and rain bands are affecting the coast to the east of the radar site. Image credit: Mexican Weather Service..
Forecast for Karl
Conditions for intensification are ideal in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, with wind shear expected to be low, 5 - 10 knots, SSTs warm, 29°C - 30°C, and the atmosphere very moist. These conditions, combined with the topography of the surrounding coast which tends to enhance counter-clockwise flow, should allow Karl to intensify into Category 2 hurricane before making landfall between Tampico and Vercruz, Mexico Friday afternoon. Karl is a small storm, and is unlikely to bring any rain or wind to Texas.
Igor
The Air Force Hurricane Hunters made their first foray into Hurricane Igor this afternoon, and found a high-end Category 3 storm, with a central pressure of 940 mb and top winds at 10,000 feet of 150 mph. The southwest portion of the eyewall was open, so Igor has the potential to intensify once again if it can close off the gap. There are no major changes to the track or intensify forecast for Igor in the latest set of model runs. Igor is expected to remain a major hurricane for the next two days, and is headed northwest at 7 mph. This motion will carry the core of the hurricane close to NOAA buoy 41044 between 9 - 11 pm EDT tonight. Top winds at the buoy so far today have been 65 mph, gusting to 81 mph, with a significant wave height of 38 feet (the significant wave height is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves.)
Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model develops a new tropical depression a few hundred miles off the coast of Africa 2 - 4 days from now. The GFS is suggesting the eastern Caribbean could see a tropical depression 6 - 7 days from now.
I'll have an update Friday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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British Virgin Islands in the eyewall when Earl was a Cat 3. (Anegada)
And morning Kori!
Station SACV4 - Sacrifice Island, Mexico
WSW 22 kts
Good morning!
And no, I wasn't referring to majors. Just landfalls. You mentioned the period of August 17 through September 4, and I was referring to the storms in that period.
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 59.8W
ABOUT 730 MI...1180 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES
Mornin' Folks
Thanks for your time and knowledge
Of course. I couldn't have gotten where I am though, without people like StormW helping me out. :)
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
300 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010
...EYE OF EARL PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 300 PM AST...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 64.4W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM NE OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ENE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES
(If the eye just passes north, they're going to be in the eyewall... which they were. Earl only began to move away when he was a Cat 4).
Morning!
Igor is huge. (8 a.m.)
IGOR IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM.
Karl's windfield is smaller. (4 a.m.)
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM.
I stand corrected.
check back at lunch
But anyone want to take a guess when the last time we had 3 straight majors that were Cat 4 and upwards?
I'm guessing this is the first time - to our knowledge anyway.
MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 95.6W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES
7:00 AM CDT Fri Sep 17
Location: 19.6°N 95.6°W
Max sustained: 120 mph
Moving: W at 9 mph
Min pressure: 956 mb
Location: 19.7°N 95.3°W
Max sustained: 120 mph
Moving: W at 9 mph
Min pressure: 961 mb
..........................
7:00 AM CDT Fri Sep 17
Location: 19.6°N 95.6°W
Max sustained: 120 mph
Moving: W at 9 mph
Min pressure: 956 mb
WTNT33 KNHC 171157
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
700 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010
...DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE KARL APPROACHING THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 95.6W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.6 WEST. KARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF KARL WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
LATER TODAY...AND MOVE INLAND OVER MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KARL IS A MAJOR CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR
SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE...AND SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL
POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER KARL MOVES
INLAND.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 956 MB...28.23 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 12 TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
WIND...WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR IMMINENT...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICAN GULF COAST
REGION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Bad. That means a greater threat for United States landfalls.
URNT12 KNHC 171156
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL132010
A. 17/11:45:00Z
B. 19 deg 35 min N
095 deg 32 min W
C. 700 mb 2717 m
D. 99 kt
E. 047 deg 6 nm
F. 135 deg 87 kt
G. 047 deg 6 nm
H. 957 mb
I. 12 C / 3027 m
J. 17 C / 3045 m
K. 13 C / NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C8
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF301 0513A KARL OB 04
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 92 KT SW QUAD 11:48:20Z
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