A rare triple threat: three simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes
For the first time in twelve years, we have a rare triple threat in the Atlantic--three simultaneous hurricanes. Hurricane Karl joined Hurricanes Igor and Julia in the steadily expanding Hurricanes of 2010 club this morning, becoming the sixth hurricane of the season. The last time we had three simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic was in 1998. That year also had four simultaneous hurricanes--Georges, Ivan, Jeanne and Karl--for a brief time on September 25. There has been just one other case of four simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes, on August 22, 1893. According to Phil Klotzbach at Colorado State, three simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes is a rare phenomena, having occurred only eight other times since 1851. The other years were 1893, 1926, 1950, 1961, 1967, 1980, 1995, and 1998.
Figure 1. Triple trouble: From left to right, Hurricanes Karl, Igor, and Julia roil the Atlantic. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Karl
Hurricane Karl continues to intensify. The latest Hurricane Hunter flight, flying at 12,000 feet, found flight level winds of 95 mph. This suggests surface winds of 85 mph, though the top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument were about 80 mph. Mexican radar out of Alvarado shows the outer spirals bands of Karl are dumping heavy rains on the Mexican coast along the Bay of Campeche.
Figure 2. Afternoon radar image from the Alvarado, Mexico radar. The eye of Karl is visible in the upper right, and rain bands are affecting the coast to the east of the radar site. Image credit: Mexican Weather Service..
Forecast for Karl
Conditions for intensification are ideal in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, with wind shear expected to be low, 5 - 10 knots, SSTs warm, 29°C - 30°C, and the atmosphere very moist. These conditions, combined with the topography of the surrounding coast which tends to enhance counter-clockwise flow, should allow Karl to intensify into Category 2 hurricane before making landfall between Tampico and Vercruz, Mexico Friday afternoon. Karl is a small storm, and is unlikely to bring any rain or wind to Texas.
Igor
The Air Force Hurricane Hunters made their first foray into Hurricane Igor this afternoon, and found a high-end Category 3 storm, with a central pressure of 940 mb and top winds at 10,000 feet of 150 mph. The southwest portion of the eyewall was open, so Igor has the potential to intensify once again if it can close off the gap. There are no major changes to the track or intensify forecast for Igor in the latest set of model runs. Igor is expected to remain a major hurricane for the next two days, and is headed northwest at 7 mph. This motion will carry the core of the hurricane close to NOAA buoy 41044 between 9 - 11 pm EDT tonight. Top winds at the buoy so far today have been 65 mph, gusting to 81 mph, with a significant wave height of 38 feet (the significant wave height is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves.)
Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model develops a new tropical depression a few hundred miles off the coast of Africa 2 - 4 days from now. The GFS is suggesting the eastern Caribbean could see a tropical depression 6 - 7 days from now.
I'll have an update Friday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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So all of these areas in the GOM are actually leased by oil cos? Never knew that. Does this include wetland areas?
But why do people care if they get a plus? Is there someplace they are tallied or something??
Haha, your last comment is forboding after all the talking about street light poles tonight! I swear it was about hurricanes when we started! =D Anyway, thanks for your answer.
Just got to that still image of Karl. A perfect donut, wouldn't surprise me if he's already a cat 3. However, Karl will always be jealous of Igor, because he's bigger...
Speaking of Igor, why are they leaving Bermuda off of the maps? How hard is it to draw a black spot, so that I don't have to keep figuring out that it is in the bullseye?
Sheesh, I didn't think I'd be baited by this stuff again, but what do you think about Dr M's analysis????
Well, thanks much for responding! I appreciate it.
Actually I pretty much knew that, but from some of the comments I saw it looked as if the +/- stuff was somehow going to be counted against you in the long run. And that flagging was now forboten... I just must have misunderstood.
Sorry about that! I'll take that coffee now that I've put on those clean pants.......
Have to agree. I never seem to be able to know just where it is!
Snort!!!
Dammit! There go the new chinos...
And some people on here have said they go back over their posts with the filters on to see how they rank.
Are you also not aware there are circa 35000 oil wells in said GOM, many of which are abandoned? Disturbing thought.
No need for apologies, I learned something new myself. I know what the no power is like, after 2004 I decided I would buy a house on one of those streets that magically gets power back first every storm. Ended up moving to Canada instead though!
I don't wanna know...
Yikes! You must have been w/o power for a very long time!
No, I had no idea. Didn't the pres order that all the abandoned wells to be capped?
I was sort of thinking about that when I wrote the post. Not sure what the exact rules are, but I think it's okay to briefly discuss a semi-related topic, just don't let it get out of hand. One night football was 80% of the posts for about 3 pages until others started complaining.
Did you notice the filter drop-down box at the top of the comments list? You have options from "show all" to only "show best." A comment that has been plussed a bunch of times will get in the show best, while one that has been minussed a bunch will then be hidden.
What I'm not sure about is if a person gets a bunch of minsuses, does that then mean that all of their posts are hidden to someone using say "show average." I don't use the feature, but I think that there are a lot of people who do to maybe get rid of those without anything important to say (umm, like me).
flsky - haha, I didn't move to the Great White North to run away from hurricanes, I married a canuck instead ;oP
I am getting tired but I really wanna stay up and watch the show. Not every day there are 3 storms to admire, ya know?
update
Yeah, me too. Thanks folks.
Every online community I've watched evolve over time seems to face the issue of where to draw the line as to what's "off topic". Sometimes the best conversations are.
I don't believe this is true, being a non-paying member it seems i can see posts that have been -ed. However, when i am logged off and browsing this blog, - posts don't appear. I have my filter set to show all.
They said they logged out of their name and came back as a guest to check. Seems like a waste of time to me. I have never done it, but I also don't really have anything to say that greatly contributes to the blog, so I assume I am a below average poster. :-)
Guess that question is cleared up. :-)
actually, i said i didn't want to know... but i lied. your name was visible all the way to good. almost everyone else here, tho, disappeared when set to average.
seems pretty dysfunctional, but that could be sour grapes!
LOL, what I probably should have said is that I was too chicken to check.
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