A rare triple threat: three simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes
For the first time in twelve years, we have a rare triple threat in the Atlantic--three simultaneous hurricanes. Hurricane Karl joined Hurricanes Igor and Julia in the steadily expanding Hurricanes of 2010 club this morning, becoming the sixth hurricane of the season. The last time we had three simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic was in 1998. That year also had four simultaneous hurricanes--Georges, Ivan, Jeanne and Karl--for a brief time on September 25. There has been just one other case of four simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes, on August 22, 1893. According to Phil Klotzbach at Colorado State, three simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes is a rare phenomena, having occurred only eight other times since 1851. The other years were 1893, 1926, 1950, 1961, 1967, 1980, 1995, and 1998.
Figure 1. Triple trouble: From left to right, Hurricanes Karl, Igor, and Julia roil the Atlantic. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Karl
Hurricane Karl continues to intensify. The latest Hurricane Hunter flight, flying at 12,000 feet, found flight level winds of 95 mph. This suggests surface winds of 85 mph, though the top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument were about 80 mph. Mexican radar out of Alvarado shows the outer spirals bands of Karl are dumping heavy rains on the Mexican coast along the Bay of Campeche.
Figure 2. Afternoon radar image from the Alvarado, Mexico radar. The eye of Karl is visible in the upper right, and rain bands are affecting the coast to the east of the radar site. Image credit: Mexican Weather Service..
Forecast for Karl
Conditions for intensification are ideal in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, with wind shear expected to be low, 5 - 10 knots, SSTs warm, 29°C - 30°C, and the atmosphere very moist. These conditions, combined with the topography of the surrounding coast which tends to enhance counter-clockwise flow, should allow Karl to intensify into Category 2 hurricane before making landfall between Tampico and Vercruz, Mexico Friday afternoon. Karl is a small storm, and is unlikely to bring any rain or wind to Texas.
Igor
The Air Force Hurricane Hunters made their first foray into Hurricane Igor this afternoon, and found a high-end Category 3 storm, with a central pressure of 940 mb and top winds at 10,000 feet of 150 mph. The southwest portion of the eyewall was open, so Igor has the potential to intensify once again if it can close off the gap. There are no major changes to the track or intensify forecast for Igor in the latest set of model runs. Igor is expected to remain a major hurricane for the next two days, and is headed northwest at 7 mph. This motion will carry the core of the hurricane close to NOAA buoy 41044 between 9 - 11 pm EDT tonight. Top winds at the buoy so far today have been 65 mph, gusting to 81 mph, with a significant wave height of 38 feet (the significant wave height is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves.)
Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model develops a new tropical depression a few hundred miles off the coast of Africa 2 - 4 days from now. The GFS is suggesting the eastern Caribbean could see a tropical depression 6 - 7 days from now.
I'll have an update Friday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Hear, hear! I've saved many images of Igor, he's so beautiful (and scary). Where did you get the image in post 1675? I dig the colors.
So, do they have a built in snap point? I'd hate to be underneath that (or my car, house, etc.) when it goes!!
I learned about this from my time working in a trauma hospital and hearing the specifics of certain motor vehicle accidents. That's pretty much how I learned about breakaway poles, I don't design them or anything like that but it makes sense that yes, they'd replace the wooden ones with concrete ones.
Also, this is total speculation, but I'd bet non breakaway poles get damaged enough in collisions to warrant major repair or replacement so it's not like the breakaway poles are some huge cost factor.
Hurricane force winds extend 2000 miles from the center! :O
Periods and caps please! This comment can be read a couple of different ways!
12N 36W
The local ones just have a fiber mesh.
Next time you drive by them, check to see if they are guard rail protected! Don't hit them!
I agree to a point, and that regarding the haters and those that have been riding Storm like a rented mule. However, you have been here long enough to remember the girl who posted private emails, he was going to quit then, but 1/2 a day of "please don't go" comments and he stayed...then last year he threatened to quit the blog and we had 1/2 a day of "please don't go"...this year we had the "credential" fiasco and a full day of folks giving reason why he didn't need them...I would wager he wont be gone for long, but there is a "pattern" of drama that seems to follow Storm that no blog needs. I like him, but I stroke only my own ego, and really don't like 1/2 a day of horsecrap every time he gets his feelings hurt. Good luck Storm.
Holy cow! I've seen archived storm tracks like that, but never "watched" one in progress. I agree, this blog would go absolutely nuts, although that bar may have already been met...lol.
UM...yeah! Don't need that coffee anymore. As a matter of fact, does anyone have a spare pair of chinos?
I thought that thing was supposed to be a Cat 1! Looks like conditions were a bit more than favorable. Serves me right for avoiding the blog during the day!!!
Speaking of that, would someone explain to me the +/- thing? I thought that we were supposed to flag posts that we thought were inappropriate? Is this all changing now? Sorry if I'm a bit slow on the uptake, I've been in my cave, working working working...
Yeah, if my engineer husband was awake I'd ask him to explain how they work to me. As a nurse all I know is hitting a solid stationary object effs you up much worse than one that cracks in half on impact. =)
Maybe, and that's a big maybe. XD
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
TYPHOON FANAPI (T1011)
15:00 PM JST September 17 2010
================================
SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South Of Okinawa
At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Fanapi (965 hPa) located at 22.7N 128.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest slowly
Dvorak Intensity: T4.5
Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center
Gale Force Winds
================
170 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
130 NM from the center in western quadrant
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 23.2N 125.0E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
48 HRS: 24.3N 120.4E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 24.5N 115.2E - Tropical Depression
Don't mean to belabor this, but do you mean that the wooden ones are more dangerous for car crashes? Are the concrete ones supposed to break to opposite direction of a crash, or give? Actually, I've always thought that the concrete ones would hold up better to hurricane-force winds. Now that I've thought about this more, I think I'll contact the local power co. for more info. Thanks for your input!
Oops. Rather foreboding.
Lisa will come from this:
Look by Africa.
The pole that breaks away (no matter if it's concrete or wooden) is better for the accident victim. It is my understanding that breakaway poles can be made of either material. Actually finally found a site explaining the advantages/disadvantates...
http://onlinemanuals.txdot.gov/txdotmanuals/hwi/pole_placement_guidelines.htm
It's near the top under the heading "two types of poles".
Excuse me for asking, but what are the gridded-out areas south of LA and TX?
Thank you! Very nice of you to find this!
I understand if this has been beaten to death and folks are tired of talking about it. Can anyone point me to a post that might explain it, so I don't have to go skim 1900 posts at this time of night??? TIA, as they say...
Yeah probably, the EURO has that one absorbing 46L in the coming days.
Looks like a mineral lease area overlay to me.
Sorry to get off on this tangent, but when power poles go down, the electrical grid is, of course, adversely affected, not to mention everyone that has to suffer FL heat until power is restored.
I assume we are supposed to + the posts we think are adding to the blog and - the ones we don't like. Seems like some on here are + their friends and - the people they don't get along with.
Umm, as far as I understand it, the + is for agreeing with or liking a post, the - is for disagreeing with it or disliking it or thinking it stupid, whatever.
The ! is reserved for inappropriate remarks, such as profanity or snarkiness, which has been the case in the last 3 days. However, this can also be used when a person(s) repeatedly discusses off-topic subjects which totally disrupt the blog's main purpose (weather), such as football, etc. I don't think that occasional comments are a problem, but when it goes on for several pages, look out you could get banned.
Did this help any?
Someone said the the posts that were - aren't seen by the non-paying members. Don't know it its true or not.
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