A rare triple threat: three simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes
For the first time in twelve years, we have a rare triple threat in the Atlantic--three simultaneous hurricanes. Hurricane Karl joined Hurricanes Igor and Julia in the steadily expanding Hurricanes of 2010 club this morning, becoming the sixth hurricane of the season. The last time we had three simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic was in 1998. That year also had four simultaneous hurricanes--Georges, Ivan, Jeanne and Karl--for a brief time on September 25. There has been just one other case of four simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes, on August 22, 1893. According to Phil Klotzbach at Colorado State, three simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes is a rare phenomena, having occurred only eight other times since 1851. The other years were 1893, 1926, 1950, 1961, 1967, 1980, 1995, and 1998.
Figure 1. Triple trouble: From left to right, Hurricanes Karl, Igor, and Julia roil the Atlantic. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Karl
Hurricane Karl continues to intensify. The latest Hurricane Hunter flight, flying at 12,000 feet, found flight level winds of 95 mph. This suggests surface winds of 85 mph, though the top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument were about 80 mph. Mexican radar out of Alvarado shows the outer spirals bands of Karl are dumping heavy rains on the Mexican coast along the Bay of Campeche.
Figure 2. Afternoon radar image from the Alvarado, Mexico radar. The eye of Karl is visible in the upper right, and rain bands are affecting the coast to the east of the radar site. Image credit: Mexican Weather Service..
Forecast for Karl
Conditions for intensification are ideal in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, with wind shear expected to be low, 5 - 10 knots, SSTs warm, 29°C - 30°C, and the atmosphere very moist. These conditions, combined with the topography of the surrounding coast which tends to enhance counter-clockwise flow, should allow Karl to intensify into Category 2 hurricane before making landfall between Tampico and Vercruz, Mexico Friday afternoon. Karl is a small storm, and is unlikely to bring any rain or wind to Texas.
Igor
The Air Force Hurricane Hunters made their first foray into Hurricane Igor this afternoon, and found a high-end Category 3 storm, with a central pressure of 940 mb and top winds at 10,000 feet of 150 mph. The southwest portion of the eyewall was open, so Igor has the potential to intensify once again if it can close off the gap. There are no major changes to the track or intensify forecast for Igor in the latest set of model runs. Igor is expected to remain a major hurricane for the next two days, and is headed northwest at 7 mph. This motion will carry the core of the hurricane close to NOAA buoy 41044 between 9 - 11 pm EDT tonight. Top winds at the buoy so far today have been 65 mph, gusting to 81 mph, with a significant wave height of 38 feet (the significant wave height is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves.)
Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model develops a new tropical depression a few hundred miles off the coast of Africa 2 - 4 days from now. The GFS is suggesting the eastern Caribbean could see a tropical depression 6 - 7 days from now.
I'll have an update Friday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 — Blog Index
I really don't like that landfall point for Karl..
AOI
TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
I remember Floyd making a bee-line for southern FLA. Then, at the last minute, turning north unexpectedly. Do you mean after it turned north, it was supposed to stay out to sea?
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010 1100 PM AST THU SEP 16 2010
...JULIA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE EAST OF IGOR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS
INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
NA remenber Earl almost kill us! the nhc fail
And there are some people in Mexico that REALLY don't like it!
Oh... I just remember the heart attack part. Floyd was a beast.
Yes that cold front was welcomed. Frances was not so fun without power.
That's fine to dispute, just saying, don't get too concerned, cause I'd almost bet money it will still turn out to sea, and I'm not a gambler lol.
you can notice that he achieved 22N and then went to 21.9N.
No, you fail.
Ha!
At any rate, I'll be praying for the mexican folk down yonder...
Its still hard to determine what causes some storms to absolutely explode, like Charley, while others don't. Weather is a very complex science indeed.
Looks like it made it to 22N a couple times, up and down.
LOl yeah thank goodness it was originally set to pass 300miles to the NE if it would have been 200miles we would have been in big trouble. XD
Hey the local METs here in tampa bay keep talking about the models spinning up something in the Carib and potentially throwing it our way in the long term, maybe the old overkill GFS might be on to something... lol!
Igor:
Julia:
Karl:
yeah and because of how active the season has become, it does make it more believable. Certainly too far out to worry about, but still, definitely will give us something to keep in mind the next week or so.
SSI posted it earlier, it was almost 10, around 9.8 or so.
1155. BobinTampa 2:31 PM MDT on September 16, 2010
Gotta get this off my chest:
I think it is safe to say that everyone who visits this blog benefits in some way - whether through education or entertainment. The blog is far from perfect but, overall, I'd say it has been pretty beneficial to us all.
So it kind of baffles me that some would use this site to try to recruit members to another site they are creating. That is in extremely poor taste in my opinion.
We all have the ability to create our own blogs on WUnderground. Why leave completely when you could simply relocate on the same site, OR better yet, strive to improve this blog??
That strikes me as a great show of disrespect to Dr. Masters. Maybe this is addition by subtraction. Who knows?
Viewing: 1601 - 1651
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 — Blog Index