Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Eye appearing on Hurricane Karl.

If Igor is the 10th largest hurricane/TC, I'd love to see what the largest is:

HurricaneKarl's heading had turned southward to (7.8degrees west of) WestSouthWest
from its previous heading of dueWest
H.Karl's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions was ~9mph(~14.5km/h)

15Sep 09pmGMT - - 19.0n89.4w - - 45mph - - - 997mb - - NHC.Adv.#5
16Sep 12amGMT - - 19.2n90.1w - - 40mph - - 1000mb - - #5A
16Sep 03amGMT - - 19.4n90.7w - - 40mph - - 1000mb - - #6
16Sep 06amGMT - - 19.7n91.2w - - 40mph - - 1000mb - - #6A
16Sep 09amGMT - - 19.8n91.6w - - 50mph - - 1000mb - - #7
16Sep 12pmGMT - - 19.6n92.1w - - 65mph - - - 986mb - - ???
??? 12:30pmGMT - - 19.7n92.2w - - 65mph - - - 987mb - - #8
16Sep 03pmGMT - - 19.7n92.8w - - 75mph - - - 983mb - - #9
16Sep 06pmGMT - - 19.7n93.3w - - 75mph - - - 983mb - - #9A
15Sep 09pmGMT - - 19.6n93.7w - - 80mph - - - 977mb - - #10

Copy &paste 19.0n89.4w, 19.2n90.1w, 19.4n90.7w, 19.7n91.2w, 19.8n91.6w-19.7n92.2w, 19.7n92.2w-19.7n92.8w, 19.7n92.8w-19.7n93.3w, 19.7n93.3w-19.6n93.7w, tam, ver, cun, 19.6n93.7w-19.02n95.97w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12*hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~17hours from now to AntonLizardo,Veracruz,Mexico
southeast of Boca del Rio

* The westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.

You know, despite the Ninos, we've seen and the warm PDO recently and the usual higher storm numbers in the East Pacific....

Since 1998, only 3 seasons have the EPAC had more named storms than the Atlantic.

2000, 2006 and 2009 (a few seasons were tied, though).

Quoting gordydunnot:
No mention of the Igor/ Julia love story so I guess it ain't happening.

there breaking up

Eye is very visible on IR.

Quoting weathermancer:


That means a pretty darn deep storm for Newfoundland.

There are several models that show Igor transitioning into a mammoth extra-tropical cyclone in that area of the world.Link

Quoting CybrTeddy:
89. Obviously, Mitch is no longer the strongest storm in October. Matter of fact, the strongest storm ever recorded in the Atlantic occurred in October, Wilma.

You are correct.......That is from the NOAA page after the 98 season and it was not updated after that year...........

Quoting hydrus:
It is my belief by this time next week there should be two systems, one in the Caribbean Sea and one in the Atlantic. Both of them should be hurricanes within ten days. The Caribbean system the stronger of the two. This is just guesswork right now, but it seems reasonable with the MJO upward motion returning and the current model
forecasts.

Yes, I agree with you. Gradually, we are finally beginning to see a shift in the pattern.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
If Igor is the 10th largest hurricane/TC, I'd love to see what the largest is:

Yeah, Igor is a behemoth!

Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Those La Nina years have tended to produce several fish storms, because of the "higher" tracks at some point, but you also have several CV storms that can bust through into the Caribbean.......The Caribbean and US is not out of the woods yet by any means until this season is actually OVER.

I agree... Seasons are like fingerprints, each one is unique in its own way.

Ok y'all, taking Michale to Cracka Barrel for dinner. Play nice, have fun...

Long live the


See everyone this evening.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
If Igor is the 10th largest hurricane/TC, I'd love to see what the largest is:

In terms of gale force diameter, Faith I believe (not too surprising, as TCs typically get bigger as they get higher in latitude... and you can't get much higher than Faith while still being tropical).

Quoting CybrTeddy:
Eye appearing on Hurricane Karl.

I would not rule out the possibility of Karl becoming a strong three or a weak four before landfall. You know how fast these little storms can crank up. Charley is a good example.

Quoting CybrTeddy:
As of September 16th from greatest to least, seasonal activity in the last 15 years.

2005: 15-8-4
1995: 13-7-3
2010: 11-6-4
2004: 11-5-4
2008: 10-5-3
2003: 9-5-2
1999: 8-6-4*
1996: 8-6-4*
2006: 8-4-2
2007: 8-3-2
2000: 8-3-1
1998: 7-4-2
2001: 7-3-2
2009: 6-2-2
1997: 5-3-1

One thing interesting to note: September 1995 had only three named storms, while September 2005 had five.

Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Does anybody know what the 384 hr 12z GFS shows on that potential GOM system? I can't get it to run in my browser. Thanks.

last run was NOLA, 18z should be coming out over the next hour.

Thank you admin this blog is back to the way it used to be and should be - weather only.

Julia is racing to the wnw at 25mph

Quoting Neapolitan:


One thing interesting to note: September 1995 had only three named storms, while September 2005 had five.

Yep, and we're already at 5 named storms for this month (Gaston, Hermine, Igor, Julia, Karl)

116. KerryInNOLA 9:33 PM GMT on September 16, 2010

0Z and 6Z GFS shows Florida as the target
12Z takes the system to LA/MS

Hurricane GRETA (1956) was the largest Atlantic tropical cyclone ever recorded, it had Tropical Storm Force winds spanning out over a area of 1,200 miles.

Quoting weathermanwannabe:


You are correct.......That is from the NOAA page after the 98 season and it was not updated after that year...........

However the statement is still technically correct. "Mitch was". Its probably a good thing that Karl continues to shift southward, gives him much less time to get his act together. Igor has really expanded hasn't he. The way he did that is as impressive as his original bout of strengthening to me. At least the blog has slowed for the time being, even if it is only because no storms are threatening the US coast.

I wouldn't be surprised if Karl becomes a major hurricane before making landfall! It's getting its act together in a hurry, plus its about the side of Charley, and Charley intensified from a 100 mph category 2 to a 145 mph category 4 in just 2 hours!

Not saying it will blow up that fast, but the small size and great atmospheric conditions may lead to rapid intensification before landfall tonight.

Largest Atlantic hurricanes by TS force winds diameter

1 Faith 1966
2 Gabrielle 1989
3 Igor 2010
4 Unnamed 1971
5 Gilbert 1988
6 Isabel 2003
7 Doris 1975
8 Ella 1978
9 Debby 1982
10 Esther 1961

TORNADO WARNING FOR NYC!!!!

Coming right at me!!!!

Second time this year though there was no tornado the first time.

Quoting sammywammybamy:
82 Years Ago this Date, The Second Worst Natural Disaster in American History...



It Hit Puerto Rico as a Cat5 and South Florida as a Cat 4.

After leaving the Caribbean, the hurricane moved across the Bahamas as a strong Category 4 hurricane. It continued to the west-northwest, and made landfall in southern Florida on the evening of September 16 (or early on September 17 Universal Time).[3] Initially, Richard Gray of the U.S. Weather Bureau was optimistic that the storm would spare the south Florida region.[5] Atmospheric pressure at landfall was measured at 929 mbar (hPa),[6] and maximum sustained winds were near 150 mph (240 km/h).[3] The eye passed ashore in Palm Beach County near West Palm Beach, then moved directly over Lake Okeechobee.[3] Peak gusts were estimated near 160 mph (260 km/h) at Canal Point, Florida.[2] The hurricane's path turned northeast as it crossed Florida, taking it across northern Florida, eastern Georgia, and the Carolinas on September 19. It then moved inland and merged with a low-pressure system around Toronto on the 20th.[3]


In south Florida at least 2,500 were killed when a storm surge from Lake Okeechobee breached the dike surrounding the lake, flooding an area covering hundreds of square miles.[1] In total, the hurricane killed at least 4,078 people and caused around US$100 million ($1.27 billion 2010 USD) in damages over the course of its path.

Here in PR that Hurricane was known as San Felipe II.

Small Hurricanes can get going real fast. Now that the eye is showing up I think in 6 hours we will be at 115

Quoting CybrTeddy:
Hurricane GRETA (1956) was the largest Atlantic tropical cyclone ever recorded, it had Tropical Storm Force winds spanning out over a area of 1,200 miles.

And in the month of November"wow" This is a VERY interesting and informative Link

anybody guessing how many storms we mite have at the end of the year

If you look at how low sheer generally is at the moment in the MDR, and how high water temps remain, this season is far from over.....It will not "truly" end until sheer levels rise and temps fall...A few recent seasons shut down early due to sheer levels rising at the end of September but I think this season will be different per some of the long term sheer models......October will probably spin up several storms and maybe even a few in November........Time will tell.

Quoting bigwes6844:
anybody guessing how many storms we mite have at the end of the year

20 storms + the way thing are going

Have to pick-up the little one from Ballet...See everyone tommorow....WW

IGOR and his friend

Karl looks great.And Luckily Igor is weakning before paying a visit to bermuda.

Quoting HCW:
Karl

thats Igor

Quoting bigwes6844:
anybody guessing how many storms we mite have at the end of the year

Still sticking to 16-17.

The rate of activity will eventually begin to slow down. Possibly after Karl (or Lisa if the models are right), there might be a bit of a lull for a week or two (every season has a lull - just varies how long and what consists of that lull - one storm alone would be a lull compared to the activity of the last 3 weeks).

Quoting KerryInNOLA:
I'm talking about the 12z on Allan Huffman's site. Can't get it to work.

The 12z had it in Nolaq. Not pulling your leg. But that is almost a good thing as that track will jump around a lot in the next 330hrs.

It's hard to hit that tiny + on the Droid...

Quoting Tazmanian:



thats Igor

and Julia...

Link

Umm, RUN!!!!! :-P

I guess something went A LITTLE wrong when making this map...

Quoting Cotillion:


Still sticking to 16-17.

The rate of activity will eventually begin to slow down. Possibly after Karl (or Lisa if the models are right), there might be a bit of a lull for a week or two (every season has a lull - just varies how long and what consists of that lull - one storm alone would be a lull compared to the activity of the last 3 weeks).

forecast models have been showing Lisa and Matthew in the next 6-10 days; "Matthew" lasts until the first week of October. I doubt there will be a lull, maybe after that one