A rare triple threat: three simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes
For the first time in twelve years, we have a rare triple threat in the Atlantic--three simultaneous hurricanes. Hurricane Karl joined Hurricanes Igor and Julia in the steadily expanding Hurricanes of 2010 club this morning, becoming the sixth hurricane of the season. The last time we had three simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic was in 1998. That year also had four simultaneous hurricanes--Georges, Ivan, Jeanne and Karl--for a brief time on September 25. There has been just one other case of four simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes, on August 22, 1893. According to Phil Klotzbach at Colorado State, three simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes is a rare phenomena, having occurred only eight other times since 1851. The other years were 1893, 1926, 1950, 1961, 1967, 1980, 1995, and 1998.
Figure 1. Triple trouble: From left to right, Hurricanes Karl, Igor, and Julia roil the Atlantic. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Karl
Hurricane Karl continues to intensify. The latest Hurricane Hunter flight, flying at 12,000 feet, found flight level winds of 95 mph. This suggests surface winds of 85 mph, though the top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument were about 80 mph. Mexican radar out of Alvarado shows the outer spirals bands of Karl are dumping heavy rains on the Mexican coast along the Bay of Campeche.
Figure 2. Afternoon radar image from the Alvarado, Mexico radar. The eye of Karl is visible in the upper right, and rain bands are affecting the coast to the east of the radar site. Image credit: Mexican Weather Service..
Forecast for Karl
Conditions for intensification are ideal in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, with wind shear expected to be low, 5 - 10 knots, SSTs warm, 29°C - 30°C, and the atmosphere very moist. These conditions, combined with the topography of the surrounding coast which tends to enhance counter-clockwise flow, should allow Karl to intensify into Category 2 hurricane before making landfall between Tampico and Vercruz, Mexico Friday afternoon. Karl is a small storm, and is unlikely to bring any rain or wind to Texas.
Igor
The Air Force Hurricane Hunters made their first foray into Hurricane Igor this afternoon, and found a high-end Category 3 storm, with a central pressure of 940 mb and top winds at 10,000 feet of 150 mph. The southwest portion of the eyewall was open, so Igor has the potential to intensify once again if it can close off the gap. There are no major changes to the track or intensify forecast for Igor in the latest set of model runs. Igor is expected to remain a major hurricane for the next two days, and is headed northwest at 7 mph. This motion will carry the core of the hurricane close to NOAA buoy 41044 between 9 - 11 pm EDT tonight. Top winds at the buoy so far today have been 65 mph, gusting to 81 mph, with a significant wave height of 38 feet (the significant wave height is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves.)
Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model develops a new tropical depression a few hundred miles off the coast of Africa 2 - 4 days from now. The GFS is suggesting the eastern Caribbean could see a tropical depression 6 - 7 days from now.
I'll have an update Friday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 04:03Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 13L in 2010
Storm Name: Karl (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 19
A. Time of Center Fix: 17th day of the month at 3:50:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°40'N 94°33'W (19.6667N 94.55W)
B. Center Fix Location: 158 miles (254 km) to the NW (318°) from Villahermosa, Tabasco, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,810m (9,219ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 83kts (~ 95.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the NW (324°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 52° at 97kts (From the NE at ~ 111.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the NW (322°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 968mb (28.59 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,044m (9,987ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed, RAGGED WALL
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 97kts (~ 111.6mph) in the northwest quadrant at 3:47:40Z
definite west jog..interesting
Remember with Earl how his convection would run out ahead of his intended direction...everytime he made a turn or movement change his convection would blow-out in that direction. Igor has shown the same tendency. Now his "extra" convection is off on the SW where before it had built on the North as he moved North. This was explained by the many more knowledgeable on the Blog as "feeling the weakness", so should we consider the weakness Igor is feeling to the SW? The steering maps are getting dicey as far as him making the gap that is closing to the north.
As to the Fujiwara Effect...Julia will slingshot counter clockwise around Igor to his North if that occurs..and she is running somewhere and firing new convection as she comes...Julia is not large enough proportionally to pull him back to the SE but she could distort his movement away from North.,.and that could also point him SW.
trochoidal wobble
976mb (Surface) 355° (from the N) 98 knots (113 mph)
974mb 355° (from the N) 96 knots (110 mph)
973mb 355° (from the N) 101 knots (116 mph)
968mb 350° (from the N) 107 knots (123 mph)
963mb 355° (from the N) 104 knots (120 mph)
957mb 0° (from the N) 108 knots (124 mph)
951mb 5° (from the N) 104 knots (120 mph)
943mb 5° (from the N) 110 knots (127 mph)
936mb 10° (from the N) 104 knots (120 mph)
923mb 20° (from the NNE) 102 knots (117 mph)
909mb 25° (from the NNE) 109 knots (125 mph)
901mb 35° (from the NE) 93 knots (107 mph)
892mb 35° (from the NE) 97 knots (112 mph)
880mb 35° (from the NE) 93 knots (107 mph)
873mb 35° (from the NE) 86 knots (99 mph)
850mb 40° (from the NE) 87 knots (100 mph)
698mb 55° (from the NE) 79 knots (91 mph)
Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 04:12Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number: 13
Storm Name: Karl (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 20
Part A...
Date: Near the closest hour of 4Z on the 17th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 19.8N 94.6W (View map)
Location: 167 miles (268 km) to the NW (319°) from Villahermosa, Tabasco, México.
Marsden Square: 046 (About)
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
976mb (28.82 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 25.4°C (77.7°F) 25.3°C (77.5°F) 355° (from the N) 98 knots (113 mph)
1000mb -216m (-709 ft) Other data not available.
925mb 471m (1,545 ft) 23.0°C (73.4°F) 22.9°C (73.2°F) 20° (from the NNE) 102 knots (117 mph)
850mb 1,210m (3,970 ft) 20.6°C (69.1°F) 20.4°C (68.7°F) 40° (from the NE) 87 knots (100 mph)
700mb 2,874m (9,429 ft) 10.0°C (50.0°F) 7.3°C (45.1°F) 55° (from the NE) 79 knots (91 mph)
Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 3:48Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.
Remarks Section...
Dropsonde Location: Dropped in maximum wind band.
Splash Location: 19.7N 94.69W
Splash Time: 3:51Z
Very impressive
Your comments on his size possibly impeding his ability "take the gap" is an interesting one at this moment..with Julia pulling on him perhaps is he finding the opening to the SW where the Gulf High pressure ridge has withdrawn all day..(note on steering maps)
What's the difference between the different satellite image options available? (I.e. Dvorak, funktop, RGB etc). Also, bonus question: Why does Dvorak always look like such a hot mess?
(Finally got my computer to load the buoy data by the way, for those who answered my question earlier but the graphs still won't for some reason.)
That would really suck for us in the islands XD! Doubt it could happen but you never know
He was on earlier today.
Will be interesting to see how this "trend" continues.......
Seems to me, that this is definitely not good news for Bermuda, and at this point, not sure what other implications are......
Well I guess that confirms my suspicions. Karl is on the verge of becoming the season's fifth major.
what he is doing?
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