A rare triple threat: three simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes
For the first time in twelve years, we have a rare triple threat in the Atlantic--three simultaneous hurricanes. Hurricane Karl joined Hurricanes Igor and Julia in the steadily expanding Hurricanes of 2010 club this morning, becoming the sixth hurricane of the season. The last time we had three simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic was in 1998. That year also had four simultaneous hurricanes--Georges, Ivan, Jeanne and Karl--for a brief time on September 25. There has been just one other case of four simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes, on August 22, 1893. According to Phil Klotzbach at Colorado State, three simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes is a rare phenomena, having occurred only eight other times since 1851. The other years were 1893, 1926, 1950, 1961, 1967, 1980, 1995, and 1998.
Figure 1. Triple trouble: From left to right, Hurricanes Karl, Igor, and Julia roil the Atlantic. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Karl
Hurricane Karl continues to intensify. The latest Hurricane Hunter flight, flying at 12,000 feet, found flight level winds of 95 mph. This suggests surface winds of 85 mph, though the top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument were about 80 mph. Mexican radar out of Alvarado shows the outer spirals bands of Karl are dumping heavy rains on the Mexican coast along the Bay of Campeche.
Figure 2. Afternoon radar image from the Alvarado, Mexico radar. The eye of Karl is visible in the upper right, and rain bands are affecting the coast to the east of the radar site. Image credit: Mexican Weather Service..
Forecast for Karl
Conditions for intensification are ideal in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, with wind shear expected to be low, 5 - 10 knots, SSTs warm, 29°C - 30°C, and the atmosphere very moist. These conditions, combined with the topography of the surrounding coast which tends to enhance counter-clockwise flow, should allow Karl to intensify into Category 2 hurricane before making landfall between Tampico and Vercruz, Mexico Friday afternoon. Karl is a small storm, and is unlikely to bring any rain or wind to Texas.
Igor
The Air Force Hurricane Hunters made their first foray into Hurricane Igor this afternoon, and found a high-end Category 3 storm, with a central pressure of 940 mb and top winds at 10,000 feet of 150 mph. The southwest portion of the eyewall was open, so Igor has the potential to intensify once again if it can close off the gap. There are no major changes to the track or intensify forecast for Igor in the latest set of model runs. Igor is expected to remain a major hurricane for the next two days, and is headed northwest at 7 mph. This motion will carry the core of the hurricane close to NOAA buoy 41044 between 9 - 11 pm EDT tonight. Top winds at the buoy so far today have been 65 mph, gusting to 81 mph, with a significant wave height of 38 feet (the significant wave height is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves.)
Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model develops a new tropical depression a few hundred miles off the coast of Africa 2 - 4 days from now. The GFS is suggesting the eastern Caribbean could see a tropical depression 6 - 7 days from now.
I'll have an update Friday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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no wait this year is the year of cat 4s
After seeing this I think I wont go to bed till late. XD
Chihuahua or Sonora?
Long range GFS ensemble avoids creating an explicit tropical sys in the gulf following Karl for the next week-10 days...
Link
I haven't check in the last day or so, but I know GFS was regularly having Igor sit on Bermuda for a couple of days (that is, take a good 2 days or so to clear the island.)
Ramsdis loop of Karl
JLPR2, could you please tell me what the "Big M over Bermuda" refers to? I tried to go back and look thru posts, but I'm just not getting it. Thx!
I've noticed that too, but don't you think nhc downsized Igor's strength a little?
I guess we shall see.
The official forecast for Igor has him sitting right off Bermuda's west coast (essentially on the island) as a major hurricane (cat 3 or greater).
See what happens when you text and drive/fly at the same time! ;)
Major Hurricane Kate
ahhh, M for major....got it....hangs head in shame, lol
Hey Storm did you say you went to SPC Cleawater campus on your new blog?
XD Ah don't worry I think it was this year I found out they used that M, I didn't answer since many other did. :0)
He meant THIS
I've been searching too and can't find any concrete dates.
There's this:
The Atlantic hurricane season is officially from 1 June to 30
November. There is nothing magical in these dates, and hurricanes
have occurred outside of these six months, but these dates were
selected to encompass over 97% of tropical activity. June 1st has
been the traditional start of the Atlantic hurricane season for
decades. However, the end date has been slowly shifted outward,
from October 31st to November 15th until its current date of
November 30th.
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/G1.html
btw, stsimons - you find some awesome tidbits all the time. watched the old donna vids yesterday. Thanks!
I couldn't figure it out either and was glad you asked. :-)
On my way to bed but wanted to post this before I go..Bermuda and Cape Hattaras is 650 miles apart from each other..TS winds are 290 miles from the center of Igor..if Igor misses that third trough as Reed said, we are looking at another Earl and possibly the worst model failure
Karl is still looking very impressive I must say (well, at least the half that you can see). It looks like the eye is clearing.
Search is your friend. ;)
The WU I know is back!
Link
Those "white" specs are latitude and longitude lines :O)
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